As I saw my children off to school this morning, I thought of the brilliant summer they just had. It was one of those early teenage and pre-teenage summers where everything is possible and where all sorts of opportunities present themselves in increasingly confusing varieties. It also struck me how much has changed in our world since they left school in June.
In June, the world appeared to be a relatively peaceful place with the exception of Syria. Many articles were written in June about the centenary of the Sarajevo assassination. The general theme was that although the world is not always stable, the notion that there might be wars with new countries created, old ones collapsing and resulting mass expulsions of populations, was far-fetched.
By September, no one can be too sure.
The speed of geo-political change has been mesmerising.
An extreme Sunni Muslim group called Isis emerged in Iraq, sweeping through the country, killing ‘infidels’ as it went. Just as we digested this ghastly spectacle, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which had been relatively quiet for a few years, erupted in Gaza with diabolical results. In Syria, the killing continued.
Then, in Eastern Europe, Russian separatists in Ukraine shot down a civilian airliner, escalating dramatically the stakes in eastern Ukraine. Two thousand people have been killed thus far in Ukraine. Now Russia, naturally, sees itself surrounded by enemies.
Sanctions against Russia have hit German economic confidence, driving the major power in Europe backwards. Deflation stalks large parts of the eurozone and without the German economy to pull it out of recession, the French economy stalled. This week, we see that the upshot of no growth in France has been the second major government reshuffle in a year. The relatively new presidency of Francois Hollande already seems impotent and subject to attack from his own party.
Speaking of attack from his own party, David Cameron is now being pushed by the Eurosceptic Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, to lead Britain out of the EU in 2017. And, who knows, it may be a rump Britain of England, Wales and Northern Ireland without Scotland.
It is a measure of just how strange the world has become that the notion the Scots may end the 300-year union with England rarely gets front-page billing in Ireland.
Despite all these geo-political upheavals, financial markets continue to behave as if there is no risk in the world. They have continued to rally, without a significant reversal, all summer.
If you are confused, I don’t blame you.
The most telling evidence of the demise of respect for America was the fact that the Egyptians – recipients of billion of dollars of American military aid – made John Kerry, the American Secretary of State, walk through a security check the last time he visited the Egyptian president. Meanwhile, on the ground, far from the corridors of power, the situation can only be described as medieval meets 21st century.
How else can you describe the beheading of a journalist? Or how else could you describe the herding of thousands of villagers up to the top of a hill, where armed fanatics intend to slaughter them all in the name of religion? How do you describe Israeli fanatics burning a young Arab boy alive?
Looking at the situation in Gaza, what we have looks a bit like a medieval siege of an entire city surrounded on two sides by Israel on the other by Egypt and hemmed in by the sea. It is sometimes forgotten that Egypt has also laid siege to Gaza and the miserable Palestinians are stuck in the middle.
Sieges of cities were common in the Middle Ages. We are back there now – except this time with so-called social media.
For Isis the future is the 11th Century. Success in this diabolical project will depend on its winning a sectarian inter-Muslim war, not unlike Europe’s Thirty Years’ War of the early 17th century which was motivated, initially at least, by pure sectarianism. This notion of the pure, religiously based state, where only the chosen ones are accepted and the others will be forced into exile, has a deep Ferdinand and Isabella feel to it.
One other aspect that makes the world feel medieval is the absence of an overwhelming power that can keep the lid on everything. In our lifetime this power was either the US or the Soviet Union. Now it is neither. However, in recent years Russia’s global power has been on the ascendency while America’s has faltered.
Think about when Vladimir Putin came to power. Russia was a wreck. On the other hand, America in the late 1990s was the world’s undisputed heavyweight power. Putin, without much by way of resources, has remade Russia into a significant power. Whether you like it or not, Russia has alliances with China and has the Egyptians knocking on its door to buy arms. Its friend in the Middle East, Iran, remains the power broker and, of course, Europe’s winters depend on Russian gas for heat.
What is Russia going to do with Europe if this is a severe winter? What if it turned off the taps?
To answer this, maybe we should wait until the schools break for the Christmas holidays, come back, and then and inspect the lie of the land.
ISIS….closer to the truth…methinks!
https://public.isishq.com/public/about/default.aspx
The Middle Ages were not dark.
It is silly to use the term ‘medieval’ as an insult.
The Middle Ages were cultured and far less violent than the 20th century or this century.
Hope your economics is better than your history.
Excellent article! Definitely in the Western World, we are going back to a kind of a feudal society, where under false pretences, big Corporations in the field of food, medicine, education, banking, and others, and Governments subservient to them; are literally seeing people as an asset to be exploited and squeezed out of everything they have, denying us in the process of the basic civil rights human beings should enjoy, and potentials we should develop. . And all under subtle methods of disinformation and intimidation, that might be different that the ones used during the time of Isabella and Ferdinand,… Read more »
I have often said that the people who so vociferously attack the US as the Imperialist Agressor will, in the future, look nostalically back at that era as a period of stability and relative prosperity when look at what has succeeded the US. I think much of davids article bears that out.
The US funded the Muhajideen against the Soviets.So who is funding ISIS (or IS Islamic State, as they’ve rebranded their Terror Theatre)? Is it a hellish combo of Arab theorcratic Muslim states AND Israel & the USuk? All intent on creating/enshrining Zones Of Chaos And Disorder for different geo-strategic reasons to try and ensure they control oil in Kurdish and especially Iranian lands ‘going forward, thus preventing the rise of an Arab power. It seems that way. Co-dependent bedlam. Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud may have been anti-Semitic but he was probably the best bet for avoiding WW3/4. Unfortunately both… Read more »
Race to the Bottom A descending order to the bottom of the barrel I was thinking as I finished reading this article . The power of Air describes what can be better understood and welcome to the Age of Aquarius .Speed signifies much of what it is ,so does the art of secrecy ( Putin) and the manipulation of communications .We are being made to believe that we are more intelligent than we thought alas soon to be in vain. Please note the absence of public protest .We are believing we are too comfortable to need to change the status… Read more »
Today
Nice will be the latest place to celebrate the 70th anniversary of it’s liberation today. On the 28th of August 1944, 32 Niçois were killed and a further 280 injured as they fought the occupying forces’ final desperate attempts to hold on to the city. Plaques will be placed around town where the fallen died and the day’s celebrations and commemorations will finish with a liberation ball in the evening.
The war in the Ukraine seems to have been provoked by the West. The question seems to be how much is down to stupidity and how much to calculation. (I say the stupids.) That is not to excuse the Russian response but Putin appears to have been demonized in a very silly way. But didn’t you see what he did to gays and to Pussy Riot. Puss In Boots – it’s pantomime politics! I would have serious doubts that Boris Johnson (Good, because he used to get a laugh on HIGNFY) is a Eurosceptic (Bad) in any meaningful sense. If… Read more »
Buchaill maith Daithi,
Very prescient article.
Middle ages feudalism
http://www.learner.org/interactives/middleages/feudal.html
The United States doesn’t have the will to fight these bastards under Barrack, Hussein, Obama, Ok I get it, he has a natural sympathy towards the Muslim world, Ok I get it, his dad was a Muslim, Ok I get it, Kerry ALLOWED, didn’t say no, ALLOWED himself to go through the security check, he is weak, Ok I get it, but, what you don’t seem to get is that these throwbacks to the dark ages have nothing else to grasp onto, and I fully expect that the political correctness that is pervasive in the world today, especially Ireland, will… Read more »
David, This is exactly how I feel after the summer and really share your sentiment. I was back in Ireland at end the of May when average property prices went up as much as 19% and when I left Ireland at the end of July it was up to 23%. The beautiful summer we had in Ireland made the people feel happy and positive. On the other hand I was worried for my own children who are struggling to get some decent rental accommodation and on top of that the world is confronted with the horrors in the Middle East… Read more »
Good morning from Erbil Iraq/Kurdistan all. To be honest I have been reading the articles and comments for quite a while and always find the discussions informative, funny and sometimes frustrating. I have been ‘kicking against the pricks’ in my own way but have not really got involved in these conversations, until now. I have been working in Iraq as the Head of Logistics for the Danish Refugee Council since March during, what has turned out to be, some of the most momentous months even in this countries history, and that really is saying something. However I wont get into… Read more »
Not sure if the Shia versus Sunni row is like the 30 years war. The point of the 30 years war was that the Habsburg monarchy had lost a lot of authority and they wanted it back. The French decided to prevent it. The result was that France was the dominant power in Western Europe, on land until Bismarck. French Catholicism was much worse than the Spanish version, as it was obsessed with centralization of power, control, and wealth. And in the aftermath of the French Revolution it migrated to Maynooth and Dublin, where it produced caustic results that last… Read more »
The US & UK seem almost desperate to start a war, I’ve never known anything like it. Well not since Bush & Blairs and their forged ‘evidence’, 45 minutes, and years of almost daily warnings ‘credible evidence of an imminent terrorist action’. The preposterous claims about Russia, Syria, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Cuba, and so on wouldn’t be too bad if they were just rhetoric. But these are clearly aimed at destroying the social and economic fabric of the countries, and therefore the lives or well being of tens if millions of people. Since the end of the Cold War,… Read more »
“Then, in Eastern Europe, Russian separatists in Ukraine shot down a civilian airliner, escalating dramatically the stakes in eastern Ukraine.”
Total supposition is the above statement.Probably a propaganda lie too. Then endorsed by irresponsible journalists as facts.
The dutch refuse to release the Black Box recordings.
Others report that the Malaysian aircraft was shadowed by Ukrainian fighter jets for 10 minutes. Utube evidence suggests that the plane was brought down by cannon fire and not a rocket.
Also there are suggestions that the traffic controllers had NATO.
advisers present at the time of the “”incident”.
“Despite all these geo-political upheavals, financial markets continue to behave as if there is no risk in the world. They have continued to rally, without a significant reversal, all summer.”
How about some research in to the suggestions that central banks now buy 35-50% of the stock market and that the numbers of buyers grows less and less.
That is the market is being artificially supported by printing of money directly infused into the stocks prices themselves.
Any comments on this please David.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-24/central-banks-load-up-on-equities-as-low-rates-kill-bond-yields.html
WELCOME TO THE GREAT ILLUMINATI AND LIVE A LIFE: Are you a BUSINESSMAN and WOMAN, POLITICIAN, ARTIST OR ACTRESS, STUDENT and you desire WEALTH, INFLUENCE, FAMOUS, POWER AND PROTECTION and lot more join the Great Illuminati today, and become a full Multi billionaires by joining the Great Illuminati world to benefits $ 250,000 weekly and $ 100,000 monthly as membership blessing for joining the member of the Illuminati. with this all your dreams and your heart desire can be fully accomplish, for more information contact: freemasonryorder@hotmail.com, CALL + 234_811_766_3321, join and experience the different.