In May 1946, Churchill gave a speech considered to be the opening salvo of the Cold War. He declared: “From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the Continent.” In addition to the “Iron Curtain” that had descended across Eastern Europe, Churchill spoke of “communist fifth columns” that were operating throughout western and southern Europe.
Could the same thing happen again in Europe with the refugee crisis? Could a new Iron Curtain – a new demarcation line – already be drawn between Eastern and Western Europe? In 1945, the line was an ideological and military divide. This time, could it be ethnic, demographic and religious?
Today the line is geographically the same, running right from the Baltic to the Adriatic. Now the issue is not communism but migration. The countries to the West of this new Iron Curtain are prepared to take in migrants/refugees whereas the countries to the east of the line are not.
Conventional wisdom said that Churchill would win the 1946 election, but he didn’t. Although ahead of his time geo-politically, Churchill was rejected by the British people even though he was the victorious war leader, and this was because the war changed everything. The troops coming back from Europe were intoxicated with the prospect of a better, more just future, where more people had more opportunity. They knew the Empire was over, they knew the UK had to do something new.
JK Galbraith, the great Canadian economist and the man who coined the term “conventional wisdom”, observed that conventional wisdom is rarely overthrown by a great countervailing ideology that convinces everyone to change their position, but rather, conventional wisdom is overthrown by seismic events. Back then the war was that huge event. Right now, could the arrival of hundred of thousands of refugees and migrants, who are encouraged by Germany, be a similar event?
The EU’s conventional wisdom today is that the EU is a unified political entity. Do you think that working assumption of a harmonious Europe will survive the mass movement of people on the EU’s southeastern border? Immigration is the issue and there are totally different attitudes on either side of Europe’s new Iron Curtain.
For example, over the weekend, a Croatian friend of mine, cosmopolitan and well travelled, asked me whether the rush of migrants was simply a grand plan to Islamise Europe. Sitting in Zagreb, she is terrified about Islamic “fifth columnists” that will come into Europe and radicalise the existing Muslim population. I am sure this type of conversation is happening all over central and Eastern Europe. I have no idea if it is a true fear, but that hardly matters – it’s a fear.
The Croats are concerned that the Germans are starting to row back while people are already on the move. The Croats fear that Croatia will be left with a huge Syrian/Afghan/Iraqi/Pakistani refugee camp on its borders as refugees wait for German doors to open again.
Croatia is not a country with resources and it’s not a country that is used to foreigners. Travelling around that country – and any country in the Balkans or Eastern Europe – one thing that strikes you is how “white” these countries are. Travel in Poland and you will be hard pressed to see a black man. The same goes for Slovakia and Hungary. In Serbia recently, fans and players set upon the black players in the English under-21 football squad for the “crime” of being black. Football supporters from the region regularly hurl racist abuse at black or Arab players. These are not places that have any history of welcoming immigrants.
In addition, amongst the Orthodox Christian countries, Islamophobia is common. This stems from centuries of proximity and the historical facts that have become mythological, such as the fact that the traditional seat of Orthodox Christianity, Constantinople, was sacked and taken over by the Muslim Turks. These antipathies go back a long way.
For example, a Bosnian Muslim friend who fought hand-to-hand in Sarajevo in the Bosnian war told me that the most vicious enemies weren’t Serbs but irregular bands of fascist Greek Orthodox fighters who came as mercenaries to protect their Orthodox Serb brothers from the threat of Bosnian Islam.
To the south is Turkey, a country that is now a massive holding pen for two million refugees who most probably would prefer to make prosperous Europe their home rather than the barren borderland of southern Turkey and northern Syria.
The Turks might simply facilitate the passage of these people to Europe. After all, Europe’s 40,000 migrants is dwarfed by Turkey’s two million.
What would happen, for example, if the Turks actively encouraged the migrants to cross its territory and make for the Hungarian border via the Balkans? After years of being humiliated by Western Europe for not being civilised enough to join the rich boys club of the EU, there must be many at the top in Turkey who wouldn’t mind throwing the refugee cat amongst the squabbling EU pigeons.
The EU countries are squabbling now but will this lead to a proper fight?
The Slavic countries in the East are against accepting foreigners into their countries and the Slavs in the South are equally against immigration. In addition, they are poor countries with barely enough resources to get by on their own.
When seen from East of the new Iron Curtain, the EU migrant crisis looks like an ill-conceived, yet entirely self-serving move by a historically guilty but economically savvy Germany to solve its demographic problem by plugging its workforce with young Muslims.
And if there is an overflow from Germany, the Slavs are worried that they will be the ones left with camps full of migrants who don’t want to be in Croatia – and the Croatians don’t want them there either.
We are at the very early stages, but even now you can see new alliances forming very similar to the old Cold War boundaries.
If Germany pushes too hard, who’s to say these differences won’t become something more permanent? Germany bullied the rest of the EU at every stage of the Eurozone debt crisis; in light of this, who is strong enough to rein Germany in?
Could we be seeing another Churchillian Iron Curtain? Could we be witnessing the great event that smashes conventional wisdom? It looks a bit like that from here.
It’s too late for talking merely of choosing which immigrants we accept in future. The truth is that preventing our replacement and national dispossession will most likely require halting all further immigration and reversing the immigration that has occurred since the late 1990s. That immigration occurred on an unprecedented scale and was deliberate; it was criminal. The higher birth-rates of many of the Third-World populations we have imported, and their desire to be separate and alien, means that it is only a matter of time before we have been replaced and the make-up and character of the native peoples of… Read more »
I reject the makey uppey word Islamophobia. There is no such thing. There IS however a genuine LEGITIMATE fear of these filthy headscarved murderous pond scum. And that is not a phobia. The politically correct like to hurl their clever terms with the word phobia at the end, attempting to belittle the real conversation that should be taking place.
http://unhcr.org/556725e69.html Above report provides some useful insides. I remember a few days ago a bishop from Hungary, who said that the pope is wrong and that they were no refugees but this would be an islamist invasion of predominantly catholic nations. Germany ranks third in the top ten global list of weapons exporters. Clearly, vested interest groups steer this multidimensional crisis we witness since 2008. It makes no difference anymore what vote you cast, it makes no difference what referrendum results are on the table. Warmongerers expecting profits dominate this epoch of financial fascism. Global refugee numbers including internally displaced… Read more »
The article was going swimmingly until the following idiotic passage; “When seen from East of the new Iron Curtain, the EU migrant crisis looks like an ill-conceived, yet entirely self-serving move by a historically guilty but economically savvy Germany to solve its demographic problem by plugging its workforce with young Muslims” Someone with a personality as truly twisted and as disturbed as Suds might agree with it and more perversely may even believe such a thing could be orchestrated but do you really think that people with healthy moral minds would agree that the refugee crises has been orchestrated by… Read more »
God bless the Hungarians, Slovaks, Polish, etc who oppose this invasion.
Thankfully Germany is controlled by a woman;
George Carlin on the male disease;
Its very surprising that more referedum on In-Out of EU are not talking place around Europe. Even our own case, we have never seen as much damage we hve since becoming part of the Eurozone, and the beniftis of being so entwinded with the EU are hard to see. Yes we got roads, but we swopped our fish stocks for them. Surely we could hve retained the fish stocks and used the revenue to finance new roads. Instead we tried to buy external approval from strangers with whom we have no relationship, and sold our own public for this approval.… Read more »
A few years ago, I was talking to a wise man from China. He told me that everybody has a price. Being an idealist, I abhorred this. I disagreed. I refused to believe.
But he is correct. A wise man indeed.
How can E~U nations have independent foreign policy but all EU nations can then have to abide and EU-wide Refugee Policy. France, UK, Germmany, and anyone with an armay can act independantly with no consideration of humanitarian responsibilities. The reason being that they can kick those responsibilities onto somebody else. When Germany sells arms into the Middle East do they have quota’s for the profits to be dispersed amongst its EU neighbours? When the arms are manufactured in a very efficient factory which is fueled on cheap Russian Gas, who benefits. Germany, and Russia. But not Germany’s “Partners in Responsibility”.… Read more »
As David sees it, and as I said here a few days ago, conventional wisdom is going to be put to the test over this. There isn’t any ‘great countervailing ideology’ that could threaten it, anyway, only the corpse of the old Christian tradition which has been defeated, embalmed and retained as a grisly reminder to all about what will happen if they don’t do what they are told. Hitchens forecasts an Islamic Britain and Europe in the not too distant future, not a possibility I’d ever entertained, but he is a shrewder judge than The thing about conventional wisdom… Read more »
As per usual – Follow the Money.
“German journalist goes into hiding after saying “refugee crisis” is a money-making industry”.
In Utopia there will be one issue of paramount importance.
POPULATION control. World population growth will have to cease when the population has reached some as yet undefined number.
Say for example Ireland’s quota is 5m.
Is that 5m Celts or …….
What was your knee jerk reaction to that little gem, I wonder?
Interesting question and the answers could be even more interesting.
Mind you there won’t be any refugees to deal with. (Natural disasters?)
Nobody is going to like this being said but racism (note the small r) is a necessary precursor to racial survival.
Germany could very easily become an Islamic state.
Due to my own ignorance, I don’t know whether that is a good or bad thing. The ignorance default is to think it’s a bad thing (conditioning, stranger reaction etc, I’m not a psychologist) and the default reaction is racism.
Dear David, dear readers and my fellow citizens of what had been formerly known as Europe, I have been looking forward to your new article on the latest developments in the refugee crisis and when I finally saw it in the paper, I felt compelled to comment on it, even though I have been too pressed on time to do any serious blogging. First of all, congratulations on your prophetic article from a few months ago in which you pointed out how the new technology enables people from outside Europe to have a hitherto unprecedented insight into our societies and… Read more »
Grzegorz thank you for that, A great summary of things ON THE GROUND.
Now if there was a kickstarter fund to build that wall around ALL of Europe……
Important clarification: What Mr. Kaczynski has said, 5 years ago he would not have said in the Parliament or outside it. Or even a year ago. Now he feels compelled to say it and you see a good half of the Parliament applauding. That’s still with a German financed majority. Something has changed in Poland and something has been changing in Europe: and not only in Eastern Europe. I know some Poles who only six months ago sounded like our friend from the “blog of the SD” – and even they went absolutely mental after Mr. Schultz’s threat of military… Read more »
I am not anti-Muslim, but I am anti the Muslim conquest of Europe, they can do what they want with their own backward religion in their own homelands of the Middle East. I won’t go imposing by beliefs on them so what gives them the right to impose their stuff on me?
Fair Dues, A People willing to stand up against the invasion and Political correctness.
You can wonder David whether your Croatian friend’s fear is real – but it is real to some Swedish people (primarily those who had been raped): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uNBoUqGvVs Sorry, maybe I would have made my own video with the English subtitles if I had more time – why was this announcement censored in the Irish media? A son of a Nazi threatening Poland with Bundeswehr – sure that’s worse than anything that Germany said to Greeks (and maybe PRECISELY that’s the reason you never heard that statement). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQDR2eBuZmk “The Slavic countries in the East are against accepting foreigners into their countries”… Read more »
“After all, Europe’s 40,000 migrants is dwarfed by Turkey’s two million.”
Last time I watched SKY News there were already 454,000+ migrants who had already traversed the Med this year into Europe – Where are you getting “40,000” DMcW ???
Watch the refugee stream reverse when the monetary policies collapse the economies and benefits are suspended.
ZIRP to NIRP means all bonds will be worth less than face value and the lack of income for bond funds means no money to pay benefits/pensions
Grzegorz I think we’re heading for major civil disruption and disorder. It may even descend into war. Germany is just not capable of sticking to it’s area of expertise which is manufacturing. How many times are they going to be allowed to fuck up Europe to serve their own interests? They destroy Europe every time they reach a critical mass. Good fences make good neighbours. We need to strengthen our defence structures and align ourselves with like minded Countries. Europe just can’t seem to avoid this madness for more than two generations. Might be a busy few years for metal… Read more »
5 Things the Media Won’t Report About the Refugee Crisis
Russia is trying to do something to end the crisis. Will the West let it happen? Can they prevent it happening?
During the Vietnam War Canada absorbed thousands of US migrants.
Shortly we may look forward to many thousands more!!!
Thought for the day Dathi, If X equals the total of the interest coupons on US Govt. bonds measured in currency value and Y equals the total growth in the US economy measured in currency value then if X=Y the net effect is that a value equal to total growth in the economy must be transferred from the taxpayer to the Govt. to pay the coupons leaving a net zero surplus available for distribution in the economy through tax reduced salaries or tax reduced dividends etc. leading to a net zero growth rate. Now David if X is greater than… Read more »
Jean Claude Juncker criticised member states for arguing amongst themselves instead of acting to alleviate the refugee crisis. He said we should remember that there are more O’Neills and Murphys living in the US than in Ireland. Who elected Jean Claude Juncker to speak for anyone.? Mr Juncker would do well to remember that the McDonalds and the other early settlers in the United States and Canada were responsible for the almost total elimination of the native population, which was nothing short of genocide. The genuine refugees should be taken only from the refugee camps where they are documented and… Read more »
Failure to adopt proper policy could be by design or incompetence. Also corrupt officials only gave favourable news and not the real intelligence. It reminds me of the failure of German intelligence to deliver to Hitler, the real news before the disastrous invasion of Russia.
Lack of policy based on reality added to the refugee problem no doubt, as safe havens for populations were not identified.
Says it all:
May be we can take a few minutes to read Paul Craig Roberts to get a perspective on what is driving all these dislocations , wars, marshal law provisions etc. We are being had. The agenda is evil, the activities are evil, the results are evil. Once read is not enough, a second and third time will be required. http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/06/19/paul-craig-roberts-address-international-conference-europeanrussian-crisis-created-washington/ “This is too much independence for Washington to stomach. As Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated, “Washington doesn’t want partners. Washington wants vassals.”” Putin went on to say: “We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles… Read more »
The United States [military policy] has destroyed seven countries. The populations there are subject to ongoing continual violence either from the U.S. or these Jihadists or from the Islamic State. In Libya there’s various factions, no Government – just warlords fighting and nobody’s safe anywhere so the populations are getting out. You can’t live in that type of situation. – Dr. Paul Craig Roberts on the Shadow of Truth
Taking back Democracy. Gereld Celente.
David’s article has generated a lot of debate. Two issues jump out. Compromise – Once you compromise on letting refugees into Europe, where do you draw the line. What rules do you apply and are you prepared to stick to your guns. Whose problem is it really? – Somehow or other, Europe has been tagged as the go to man for this one. We have the UN and pretty much everybody saying it’s our (Europe’s) problem. Never has the phrase, doing a Pontius Pilate on it been more apt. The only thing that makes it our problem is our geography… Read more »
Since 1971 (Closing of the fiat money systems connection with gold by Nixon) we are all economic refugees. Look at the destruction of the value of your local currency supplied by you your local central bank.
Gáspar Miklós Tamás: ”This is post-fascism”