THEY say Australia is the lucky country, and when you arrive here there is a sense that the ball bounces kindly down under. The country is blessed with almost unlimited resources, it is well run, the climate is lovely and more than anything else, as we move through the 21st century, Australia is situated in the right neighbourhood.
For centuries, when the world revolved around Europe and later the USA, Australia was accurately described as “very far away” because, relative to the action, it was at the other end of the world.
However, this morning, as I watch commuters heading to work, right here in York Street in central Sydney I get the feeling that Australia is getting lucky again. Because of its proximity to China and India, Australia looks to be in the right place at the right time.
That is not to say it won’t have its problems over the next few years because of its wildly overheated property market; it will, but the big trends in terms of what delivers a sustainable quality of life suggest that Australia will remain a lucky country.
Australia, having supplied Asia with the raw materials and commodities to fuel the great expansion in Chinese industrialisation in the past few years, is about to reap another harvest — a bountiful food harvest, again from Asia.
The single biggest challenge the world is facing concerns food, because the world’s population is not only growing, its diet is changing. The question is whether we will see the return of Malthus.
In the 19th century, Thomas Malthus declared that if the world’s population grew and grew, it would soon outstrip the ability of agriculture to feed it, leading to terrible famines and great turbulence.
Up to now, Malthus’s prediction that too many people would mean the world would eventually run out of food has not occurred (with a possible exception being the Great Irish Famine).
Could we yet face a Malthusian nightmare situation on a catastrophic scale as the rock of the insatiable demand of 7bn (soon to be 10bn) people smashes into the hard place of the planet’s limited resources to produce the food which keeps us all alive?
When you drill down, the food dilemma is in fact a much bigger one: it is an energy problem, and this one isn’t going away.
In general, humans have been ingenious animals; when faced with existential challenges humanity has come up with the technology to increase yields, increase farming productivity, increase supply and avoid catastrophe.
So successful has this been that the problem for many parts of the rich world is not too little food but too much food, not too many skinny people but too many fat people, and not a medical system working on the problems of malnutrition but one that is struggling with the challenges of obesity.
So there are two challenges. The first is: can we produce more to keep everyone in the world alive? And the second is: can we consume less so that those in the West who have food don’t eat too much of the wrong stuff?
If the world is going to produce more, which countries are going to do the producing and what type of food will they produce?
The rising population is moving from 7bn today to 10bn in 2050.They are consuming differently. The world could sustain more people if we consumed like Africans, but we don’t.
The Earth’s resources are enough to sustain only about 2bn people at a European standard of living because Europeans consume far more resources than the poorest 2bn people in the world.
However, Europeans use only about half the resources of Americans, on average.
Consider this. If all of the world’s 7bn people consumed as much as an average American, it would take the resources of more than five Earths to sustainably support all of them.
The big issue is that the diets of the Chinese and Indian populations are changing. As they get richer, they want meat and dairy, and this change in their diet is driving up food prices. The rise in the price of basic foods is punishing the poorest people in the world and is prompting unforeseen political developments, which seem unrelated but are tied together by the umbilical cord of the global food supply.
FOR example, while much is being made of the yearning for democracy behind the Arab Spring, few of us focus on the destabilising impact of a 50pc increase in the price of wheat over the past few years, which prompted food riots in Egypt which in turn fuelled political change. Food is politics and politics is food.
The problem will become more acute, not less. As a result of changing diets in China and India, the UN estimates that the global demand for meat will double over the next 20 years.
Producing a kilo of meat takes 10 kilos of fertiliser and 30 litres of oil, creates four tonnes of greenhouse gas and uses between 15,000 and 70,000 litres of water in a world where, by 2050, one third of the world’s population will face water shortages.
Up to now, there have been enormous changes in technology which have kept yields high, and this will obviously have to continue. But we can’t avoid the resource constraint implicit in China moving from cereals to dairy and meat.
Who will supply this food to them? This is where Australia comes in, and it is set to reap a rich harvest. Australia is the most likely beneficiary of the coming agriculture boom in Asia. It has capacity, it is close to Asia, and over the past 10 years has re-orientated itself away from its old link with Britain and has been forging new connections in Asia.
As I watch these Australians heading to work in downtown Sydney, it’s hard to avoid coming to the conclusion that the “lucky country” has got lucky one more time.
David McWilliams’ new book ‘The Good Room’ is out now.
Australian Govt [Dept of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestries] publication describing Australia as a ‘food secure nation’ and providing the statistics in relation to production and supply inland and to neighbouring countries:
http://www.daff.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0015/2144103/aust-food-statistics-2011-1023july12.pdf
Talking out of your arse here again McWilliams. You can’t even make your bullshit coherent these days. You pointed out above in your article that India and China will want beef or meat any rate – but they need huge volumes of water for this. 15-70,000 litres per kilo of fresh water according to yourself. I have news for you Australia doesn’t have water either thats why its a big desert in the middle. It dosen’t have water to supply the kind of quantities that would be required. You aren’t bothering with any research clearly before you write your makey-up… Read more »
I’ve lived in in Sydney since 2001. I’ve read collapse by JD.
What I can tell you is that for the first 6 years I lived here you couldn’t wash you car with a hose because of the drought.
NSW has a delsalination plant along with 2 other states. There are 3 others under construction in the country.
Great to see economists addressing the physical economy and population. The sheer evil of Malthus has not gone away – his successors today are even more genocidal. Malthusian economics must be faced directly and ridiculed. Here is how to do that : Australia has a great future – see the list of massive projects now on the table : Facing the Depression: Australia’s Blueprint for Economic Development And water is a major part. The real bread basket for Eurasia is Africa – totally neglected, subjected to genocide for decades: Transaqua: An Idea For The Sahel The Potential of the Nile… Read more »
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I cannot resist putting up a link to Dublin physicist writing in FEASTA who expresses a counter views to this article from 2011 http://www.feasta.org/2011/06/20/energy-food-constraints-will-collapse-global-economic-recovery/ and on 13th Nov on the natural denial of anything other than technology and innovation as a solution. “Those who think this, this is austerity, rather than the ripple before the storm. Maybe also those who haven’t been paying attention.” and almost in anticipation of Davids Malthaus comment Up to now, Malthus’s prediction that too many people would mean the world would eventually run out of food has not occurred (with a possible exception being the… Read more »
“Up to now, Malthus’s prediction that too many people would mean the world would eventually run out of food has not occurred (with a possible exception being the Great Irish Famine).” This a common misconception. There was food in Ireland during the ‘famine’ period, it was being exported out of ports to different parts of the British Empire, warehouses in Cork for example were packed with foodstuffs, which later saw food riots as the hungry attempted to seize the goods (Iish merchants also spiked prices). The problem with the Irish ‘Famine’ was the manner in which the system was setup:… Read more »
20bn
Even if we have 20bn people in the world in a few years time there will be plenty of food for mankind.
Its easy . We adapt
Like animals we have an inbred genetic imprint that knows how to cope . We must learn to find that in our ‘ celestial cranium’ and like the Borneo tribesman prey together.
http://overpopulationisamyth.com/
Having read the article and seen the Sydney video, I could not help feeling is was a manifesto to promote global culling and global planning by large private organisations. The Malthus argument was utterly inappropriate for the Irish famine – Malthus described a physical barrier, but a commercial one. That famine was a deliberate commercial choice. We have big food companies lapping this up and making excuses to destroy and mdedicate large areas and deploy GM with great abandon. Insurance and health companies who will define how you shall eat if you are to be covered (hint…keep eating candy or… Read more »
Producing a kilo of meat takes 10 kilos of fertiliser and 30 litres of oil, creates four tonnes of greenhouse gas and uses between 15,000 and 70,000 litres of water in a world where, by 2050, one third of the world’s population will face water shortages. I’d like to see how these stats are calculated Producing 2.2 lbs of meat uses 15-70,000 litres of water. you are saying that a farmer who hatches an egg, feeds and grows a table chicken that is eaten within 3 4 months consumes up to 15,000 gallons of water. The average household uses 350gals… Read more »
Borneo Economics Imagine living naked , barefooted , nose pierced , tattoo coloured , carrying a spear , anorexic looking ,sharp senses, ability to read every leaf and branch in the jungle and understanding jungle sounds. His gold currency are human bones ….other bones are relegated to silver ( at least he owns them ) etc This man leaves no carbon print . He is self sufficient , happy and usually has many wives. Do you envy him? Now look at …..Modern Slave Man He is over dressed , over fed , carries a mobile phone , dull senses ,… Read more »
David, the Chinese in particular are attracted to Australian farming land. They have a great idea that strangely works against their own interests. They want to FRAC the hell out of it, suck up some gas, and ruin it for agriculture. It does seem bizarre, but is quite true. A great deal of prime agricultural land along the Australian east coast has the attention of the FRACers. You may imagine that, as in Ireland, a large opposition is growing in response. For myself, I became vegetarian 35 years ago, in Australia as it turns out. Using your figures I calculate… Read more »
It is high time Malthus was mentioned by economists. to give just a taste of what this is all about here is an excerpt from his tome : “We are bound in justice and honour formally to disdain the Right of the poor to support. “To this end, I should propose a regulation to be made, declaring that no child born from any marriage taking place after the expiration of a year from the date of the law, and no illegitimate child born two years from the same date, should ever be entitled to parish assistance…. “The infant is, comparatively… Read more »
Thank god for Australia because Ireland would be lost without it,people in power took Ireland apart and now they don’t no how to put it back together .
The people who dismantled Ireland made sure that its who and what you know and what ever you do don’t get in there way or they will roll over you.
How many of the Irish people who went to Australia had to go ,how many are there because they left a pile of debts behind them .
How does this impact on the current dole figures we see at home.
This is a week when Ireland is under the international microscope for all the usual reasons. The stupidity and ultra conservative extreme right wing tendency of this screwed up nation has become exposed and is the the laughing stock of the civilised world. Most Irish people right now are ashamed and asking deep questions. They don’t really care about Sydney Australia A matter of wonder across the civilised world which has screwed the Irish tourist industry at a stroke. Who’d would want to come this brainwashed depressing dark place that obviously still lives under the iron rule of a backward… Read more »
You can put links to Dropbox images. Georg Baumann did it a few times. That way at least they are not directly on the site as well. I would imagine all you have to do is make the particular Dropbox folder ‘Public’ although I haven’t tried myself.
Casablanca
David can you report on this recent gathering ?
It is time, to speak of many things… Today’s Most Influential Malthusian Prize might be granted to Dr. Hans-Joachim (John to his friends) Schellnhuber. Hardly up to his personally bequeathed honor of OBE by Her Majesty Herself. As a physicist of “chaos theory” he moved into Climate research. He advised Tony Blair and the US Congress. He is the “carbon footprint” and total decarbonization specialist who very influentially declares the population must be reduced to 1 billion. If one follows these policies that will happen indeed. Upon telling the Obama crew that he thought the U.S. would have to bring… Read more »
A tale of Jackboots in Three-Piece Suits: Austerity Induced Triage for Italy’s Elderly Nov. 16, 2012 (EIRNS) — As in Greece, expensive medications are beginning to be denied in Italy for the elderly, as a consequence of the EU-dictated austerity implemented by the Monti government. It has been reported that the Veneto region has cut the distribution of an anti-cancer drug to women over 65, Abraxane, which is indicated for metastatic and/or recurrent breast cancer. A course of treatment with Abraxane costs EU8,733, and it has been replaced with a cheaper drug (EU2,208), which is less effective and more dangerous.… Read more »
Cotton is a water-thirsty crop, so is rice. Switching out of these crops might be a better use of resources. Australia has rich river water basins already in use, saline contamination of the soil is a problem in these areas. There are proposals to channel water from the Northern Territory to the Southern states. No doubt there will be unforeseen environmental consequences as a result of doing this. Getting wattle (accacia) based feed crops to grow in the semi arid areas of Australia and relying on the natural ability of local plants to survive in these areas might be a… Read more »
http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/alasdair-macleod/green-shoots-of-a-us-recovery.html?utm_source=english-subscribers&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=w46-2012-newsletter
Going back a theme. Is the US recovering or are we seeing only the monetary effect of QE increasing the statistical GDP while the economy continues to sink.
Remember Stagflation?
When the host dies, what then? Joel Bowman —The Daily Reckoning. When a company peddling sugar-infused cream rolls to the most obese population on the planet goes broke, you know market conditions have broken down. Yesterday, Hostess Brands Inc., the company responsible for such delightful dietary abominations as Twinkies, Ding Dongs, Devil Dogs, Ring Dings, Suzy Q’s and, of course, Drake’s Coffee Cakes, filed a motion for bankruptcy. Too bad. It seems Colorado and Washington states just couldn’t legalize marijuana fast enough to bolster demand lines for the financially-addled junk food outfit. The Hostess announcement might have caused a wave… Read more »
Great link for you Davido. Giles, Grey and Bremner 1970. What a game!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awdy0P_ujNs
Dorothy Borneo Economics includes free medicine , hospitalisation, and social welfare .Profits are socialised and benefits all free too . Nobody preaches about Sin that is a foreign thought that plagues only outsiders that might visit them.Why ask ? Modern Man has now before their eyes the immediate issues of TODAY ….MOON WOBBLE Current Probabilities The probability of an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza – 90%. An invasion of Lebanon – 70%. An conventional attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure before the end of January 2013 – 65%. Use of tactical nuclear weapons on Iran’s deep under ground nuclear infrastructure –… Read more »
He’s Crazy -“Bloomberg would rather the homeless starve than eat too much salt.”
17 Nov. (LPAC)–Are you homeless in New York City? Then you’re in luck. Mayor Michael Bloomberg is so concerned about your health, that he has banned private food donations to homeless shelters in order to keep you from consuming too much salt and too much fat and not enough fiber. So, instead of eating a home cooked meal that may cause you to gain a few pounds, you might not eat at all, and therefore gain nothing!
Bloomberg wants you to eat less salt
A tale of planned famine, again :
British Crown Assaults Canadian Wheat Board in Grab for World Grain Control (PDF)
Cartels Crush Wheat Board in Australia (PDF)
The British Empire Threshes The Australian Wheat Board (PDF)
This is how to deal with that:
Mobilization to Double Food Production
A tale of planned famine, again :
Cartels Crush Wheat Board in Australia (PDF)
This is how to deal with that:
Mobilization to Double Food Production
A tale of planned famine, again :
Assault on Canadian Wheat Board in Grab for World Grain Control (PDF)
Empire Threshes The Australian Wheat Board (PDF)
Here is a full map of Australia with water problems :
Australia water problems
And here is how to deal with these (a beautiful map) :
New Great Water Projects
By “Up to now, there have been enormous changes in technology which have kept yields high, and this will obviously have to continue. ” do you mean GMO? Do you think it’s ok to have GMO in the food chain? As for Australia been a lucky country, I don’t agree. They’ve got a ridiculous government who bend to the new world order globalist banking demons at every opportunity. Like paying CARBON DIOXIDE Taxes to Al Gore and the likes. And then just wait until China invades them in WWIII. WWIII seems like the current scheme being plotted by the globalist… Read more »
UN OFFICIAL CHARGES “NEOLIBERAL” MONETARIST SYSTEM WITH MASS MURDER THROUGH STARVATION Nov. 18 (EIRNS)–“German fascism took six years of war to kill 56 million people–the neo-liberal economic order easily does the same in a little more than a year,” said Jean Ziegler, the Swiss national who formerly served as the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food, and is now Vice President of the Advisory Committee of the UN Human Rights Council, in an interview with the Berlin left-wing newspaper {Junge Welt} Nov. 16. Ziegler has just released a book entitled {We Let Them Starve, Mass Destruction in the… Read more »
OBAMA ADMINISTRATION REFUSES TO HALT BIOFUELS CRIME Nov. 18 (LPAC)–On Nov. 16, the Obama Administration finally gave its response to the request by 8 governors and a large number of livestock, poultry, and dairy organizations to institute a waiver on the Renewable Fuel Standard mandate, thus reducing the amount of increasingly scarce grains that will be diverted in biofuels. It gave them the back of its hand. “EPA finds that the evidence and information does not support a determination that implementation of the RFS program during the 2012-2013 time period would severely harm the economy of a State, a region,… Read more »
I’ve spent sometime in Australia and I have worked on farms there. Water scarcity and climate instability are the key issues that Australia faces. There has been a massive debate over there on how to control and actually CUT BACK water usage as it is already unsustainable. The river Murray often dries up before it even reaches it’s estuary. I think the Australian environment is very marginal for farming (as Jared Diamond’s books and others note). It is productive only due to it’s vast scale and use of acquifers. If you fly over Australia you will see the pump spots… Read more »