Russia’s forceful return to the global stage means that the Pope’s grandchildren face a more uncertain future than their parents did.
The Pope’s Children are reproducing. The Irish birth rate has, for the first time, surpassed that of 1980,whenwe responded to Pope John Paul’s message on chastity with an orgy of fornication.
More than 72,000 babies were born in the country over the past 12 months. It has taken us nearly three decades, but we are now back to late-1970s birth rates.
The fact that the birth rate has soared 28 years after the last baby boom should not come as a surprise to anyone. Today’s babies are the demographic echo of the Pope’s Children; they are the Pope’s grandchildren. The average age for an Irishwoman to have her first child is 27, so it’s hardly a revelation that we are now seeing the baby boomers of the early 1980s having their own kids.
The real question is: given the changes we have seen in this generation, what sort of world will the Pope’s grandchildren be born into? With emigration on the rise, economic growth slowing, inflation on the up and firms closing, one could be forgiven for thinking we are back to where we started in 1980. However, we know that such comparisons are wrong.
Back then, our government was one of the most indebted in the world; now that accolade goes to us – the plain people of Ireland. Back then, our current account deficit was 6 per cent of GDP, today it is also 6 per cent. Back then, our budget was in significant deficit, as it is today. Back then, house prices, which had risen dramatically in the 1970s, were about to go into a ten-year decline. Okay, let’s stop before we get a little depressed.
There is a significant difference between the Pope’s Children and the baby boom of 2008.Today, Ireland is a rich country going backward. Back then, it was a poor country going, hesitantly, forward. More importantly, back then the world was beginning to open up, as was Ireland.
Ideologically, the 1980s was the era of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. The era of globalization was about to begin and, most significantly, the Pope’s Children grew up in a world free of communism. The Pope and Bin Laden’s mujahedin led the charge against the Soviet Union and, with its collapse in 1989, the world changed profoundly.
More importantly for us, these global changes constituted the background noise for Ireland’s recovery in the 1990s. Without argument, had the 1990s not belonged to the Americans (who dominated an emasculated EU and a dramatically weakened Russia), Ireland would not have seen such huge US investment. The Pope’s Children were born into an American hegemony and they profited substantially from the Pax Americana.
In contrast, their children are born into a dramatically altered world. The main reason is that Russia – after 20 years in the doldrums – is back. The sight of columns of Russian tanks rolling into a country which the Russians classify as part of their ‘‘near abroad’’ is a new one for the Pope’s Children, but an eerily familiar one for those old enough to have lived through the Cold War.
Yet, whether the reaction to the invasion of Georgia was one of déjà vu, shock or even denial, at the end of the day, it is clear that the world order has changed.
That has implications for pretty much everyone, everywhere. All over the world, people are beginning to realise that there is an alternative to the US. Not the USSR, but rather Russia: a revisionist-imperialist entity with aggressive intentions, but without the communist ideological pretensions of the USSR, ready to block, thwart and undermine the US at every turn.
This will probably be most notable in the Middle East, where America’s enemies – Iran and Syria in particular – will welcome the resurgent Russia. Russia is their main supplier of sophisticated weapons and, increasingly, their main diplomatic protector. For other countries in the region, the return of Russia to the global and regional arena offers the prospect of an alternative to American support and protection, which have been tied to ‘subversive’ notions such as democracy and human rights.
For everyone, the period of American supremacy that stemmed from the collapse of the Soviet Union has ended. Any number of scenarios are on offer as to how the new round of rivalry might play out in Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East and beyond, but the bottom line in all of them is that every area of ethnic, national or religious tension, from Kosovo to Kashmir, will become more problematic and less amenable to diplomatic resolution.
China and India – fresh from their scuppering of the WTO – will also realise that Russia, in its crudest form, is back and will thwart the US wherever it can. This will greatly change the balance of global power, because a renewed Russia will embolden others.
Who knows? This might be a good thing. However, for Ireland, the end of the era of unchallenged US power is not a positive prospect. The US is our largest trading partner and is the biggest foreign investor in the country.
Close to 80 per cent of Irish exports come from US multinationals and, for those who doubt the significance of the US in Ireland, consider the following: the combined output in Ireland of Dell, Microsoft and Intel amounts to 20 per cent of Irish GDP.
Ireland benefits hugely from a strong US. When the US is confident, it invests abroad and we get a disproportionate amount of this loot. For example, since the end of the Cold War, Ireland has received twice as much US investment as India and China combined.
Unfortunately, our new babies will be born into a world where Russia will contest America’s hegemony all over Europe. By implication, the EU – which could expand into the east under the unchallenged umbrella of America’s Nato – will be hampered. (Ironically, the Lisbon Treaty’s biggest enemy is Moscow, not Dublin.)
As a result, the 72,300 babies born in Ireland in the past 12 months face a much more uncertain global (and domestic) future than their parents, the Pope’s Children.
I don’t know Dave. I don’t think its quite a given yet that the next twenty years will be dominated by Moscow Washington rivalry. Is it not very possibly that the fall out from Georgia will blow over in the near future. Russia has just roared to the west, we have security interests, respect them. Relations between the two will have to deteriorate significantly more before we reach, “new cold war” status.
“More than 72,000 babies were born in the country over the past 12 months.” I’m a parent also of kids which won’t be joining the ‘workforce’ for another 15/20 years, it’s scary to think after all our ‘prosperity’ over the past few years we haven’t laid the ‘foundations’ to ensure employment continues to increase… “the combined output in Ireland of Dell, Microsoft and Intel amounts to 20 per cent of Irish GDP” Where is the contingency plan if these ‘few’ companies don’tr keep using ireland to sell through their product/servcies to all the European, Meddle Eastern and African markets. We… Read more »
Having lived through the nightmare eighties’ can somebody explain the crazy logic that encourages people to reproduce at such an alarming rate?.70,000 school leavers’ each year entering a stagnant labour market each year was a disaster and with more work being outsourced as well as increased automation the potetial welfare bill will be enormous.Ireland has had a labour surplus for most of the past 200 years and having grown up in a council estate in Dublin I have never fathomed why parents’ felt it necessay to have 8 or more children.Most ended up in prison, dead or on the dole.Abolish… Read more »
Dfrrr
Come on Sara, these kids were conceived in 2006, when the world was awash with bouncy castles and a media trumpeting the great and glorious future of the Celtic Tiger, stretching out forever. People were happy, wealthy, and successful. They strutted around, so to speak, brimming with confidence, admiring their home, their cars, and all that was missing was the family. A glowing, rosy, vision of the grown-up children – now a senior project manager, and a divisional director – visiting the proud parents at their summer residence out in the west somewhere. Grandchildren bouncing happily on knees. Add to… Read more »
David: “Credit has been a great liberator. delicious, reasonably equitable credit has shifted some of the most tight-assed, rigid social structures and has allowed a degree of social mobility, aspiration and freedom unfathomable only a few years ago. Credit has allowed business to flourish which otherwise would have been squeezed by deficient cash flow. Jobs, incomes, good fun, late wild nights, one-night stands, great weekends and all sorts of other goodies have stemmed directly from our new cash–and this should be celebrated.”….”Credit has created the New Ireland– an Ireland that lives in the future rather than the past–an Ireland enthralled… Read more »
Jesus Christ McClure you really lost it now. YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN ACTIONS!!!! If you take your ‘advice’ from a generalised snapshot of the economy more fool you. David McWilliams is no more responsible for the reckless spending than the man on the moon. He was just saying what his interpretation of the events was. Its time people like you GREW UP and took responsilbility for your own debt. Nobody forced you and you are an adult and I therefore assume capable of being responsible for your own actions. Or do you want to be treated like the… Read more »
David, Good to see the penny dropping…. Now take the next step, where is Ireland’s place in this new world? The “no” man of Europe, annoying everyone but ultimately neither pissing or getting off the pot, just getting a reputation as a nation thats too much hassle to deal with ………. Lets stop making losing friends needlessly and start figuring out joint approaches to the challenges facing Europe this century…. climate change, food security and energy security. Baby, its cold outside. Well, just take a look at how much gas we need, where it comes from and who is at… Read more »
David
Just a matter of interest do you subscribe to the notion that Lenin and the others were right , that capitalism should be otherthrown and replaced with a better world order ?
there definately are sounds of pro- russian tones in you articles
John
John
While we wait for David’s answer to your interesting question: Do you subscribe to such a notion? and how would you defend your answer?
Mither o’ gawd, Mr.B. I was just pointing out that David McW was one of the D4 types selling tickets for a ride on the runaway bus. – Shure there’s divil the harm in that, at all, at all.
Time to tax property, or maybe too late for the Popes children, but better late than never. I know most people are tired of the “GREED DEBATE” I myself tend to get washed out and weary talking about money and the way of the world. Time and again the same old question: why want more and more? The answer invariably finds them guilty of greed, and stupidity. In reality – these people are far from short of the full shilling – surely it can’t be as simple as that. Then in the last couple of years the stupidity began to… Read more »
Thanks for all the comments and the ideas. Just a point or two: Malcolm, of course credit was a great liberator, just because certain people borrowed too much and blow their credit on houses does not negate the social consequences of the freer availability of credit. If you doubt that just examine the impact of credit unions on our society over the past forty years. John, on the idea of me being pro Russian, that’s probably a bit true. Its not so much that I am pro-Russian rather, having tried to learn the language and having spent a lot of… Read more »
I think we should question our ability to rate how good or otherwise our relationships are with the US and for that matter anyone else in the world. That fact that the US may be waning in the relative global powerstakes and China and Russia may be upsetting the apple cart both at a global and local EU level is just that…fact – that probably needs a lot more examination before we all jump to conclusions. Irrespective of conclusions, we have to move with what we have…and it’s actually not that bad. I have many years working with many nationalities… Read more »
I just want to add…”I am not too bothered about the new Global scenario that is emerging at present. I think it represents a much needed change. The Government/ Establishment have an inertia which maintain the processes of a colonised nation. Too often, the US was relied upon as our prop – they were really colonialists by proxy (no fault of theirs). The prop has been removed, time to stop being 5 years olds and grow up and reach out to the east. We’re good. Do not let the establishment tell you otherwise.” And much and all as I supported… Read more »
Hi David, It is true that Russia the bear is giving out a large roar to demonstrate that it is ‘still a player’. Of course it is and thats with our without flexing its muscles in Georgia as the energy dependency aspects and relationships between suppliers and buyer countries has become more in focus due to increased demands and a ‘slowness’ in supply. Russia along with the former Comecon block was allowed to trade with the ‘western’ block of countries, and with that came financial benefits in the long-term. Note that China was allowed to enter the global club and… Read more »
Yes, PAX Americana is dead. Now it’s a time to recognise that the world is multipolar. IMHO, Ireland should benefit from its neutrality and look to the east and establish mutually beneficial economic and political relations with China, Russia, Iran, etc and work out how to attract their capital and natural resources to Ireland.
David: I’ve just listened to both your 2006 podcasts, Redhead vs Reds and BoI Ballsbridge seminar, end to end. I now have a much clearer picture of your ideas during that critical period. You mentioned the Bangladeshi Nobel prize winner who founded a credit union there that lifted millions out of abject poverty. The CUs in Ireland have also done a lot of good for the disadvantaged. The problem I pointing to was equity release mortgages, affordable only by the comfortably off. Problem was that the banks were then encouraging even householders of limited means and vast credit card debts… Read more »
I was in a very large BMW dealership this morning. I don’t own a beemer but has a friend who has and the sense of tension before a storm was palpable. Nobody was buying and the staff are just sitting there counting paperclips and marking time. Nothing is moving. I do agree with Philip that we will have difficulty adapting to the Chinese way of business or any other culture for that matter. We are light weight and mostly in cloud cuckoo land where deadlines are not serious and there are infinite amounts of money and “someone will sort it… Read more »
To some extent, the obsession with China and Russia perplexes me. Certainly, Russia has enormous mineral resources, including oil ,whereas China is an importer of most natural resources. China is building a vast industrial base, and Russia isn’t. Russia, economically, is of little real concern as all it has is resources. Sure, it could make life hard for others, but that wouldn’t really strengthen it’s productive economy – it would just damage trade and make it worse. It could start WW3, which could be the end of all things, but that is little to do with it’s economic strength. As… Read more »
One question I have is this………..
How many of those 72,000 Kids where born to irish Nationals? If it was not over 75%, that’s very worrying when most of our are losing our jobs than non-nationals.
Especially when we are having immigration and emigration at the same time.
That’s going to fuel alot of fear.
@Observer
Ask the CSO.
People like you thrive on misinformation and rumours. Get the facts and then scaremonger.
Otherwise keep schtum like a good little racist.
I think MK’s point on the % of babys per 1000 born to what socio/age/national grouping would very useful. My main concern is that their parents would not be healthy/ wealthy enough to bring their offspring thro our increasingly biased fee based education system in a stable enough manner and a ghettoisation of national groups because we are not capturing the informal segregation activity. I think the issue of whether China/ Russia/ America are threats etc is interesting but probably irrelevant. We are like fleas arguing over who owns the dog. They all will rise and fall …the trick is… Read more »
Immigrants by their nature are the go getters of their countries. I wouldn’t worry about them at all.
Unless they are doing a number on us like the Nigerians seem to be well able to do.
I would worry that Irish people are ghettoizing themselves by being excluded or thrown from the education system. Our 40% functional illiteracy rate is a total disgrace.
B, why don’t you like a pain in the ass…….. get some cream to clear up that problem you have? I asked what I believed was a relevant question, thats what supposedly allowed in a debate and an environment that allows opinons/concerns to be addressed. Its only people like you who when the mentioning of foreigners enters discussion…….. for legitiimate reasons I might also add declare it as “Racist” Of course, I remember you saying in other posts how you see your own countrymen as “Benefit cheats, skangers, lazy and inferior than non-nationals”. I remember you saying that you only… Read more »
@Observer. I asked you to provide facts. You provided nothing. You are implying there is some immigrant factory spawning children to sponge off us. I pulled the racist card out because targeting other tax payers who are not born here is racism. I do think Irish people are lazy. I do think that the people who are making the most of the State services are Irish and I don’t think that Irish people are inferior to anyone. I do think we need to wise up and stop farting around with borrowed money. We have a decadant society that has fogotten… Read more »
David, some of us over here in the US Heartland welcome the retreat of America from playing world superpower. We ready to live and let live, which once was the coin of the real here. Yes, some of us are Islationists. We do not bother you. You do not bother us. If you want to do business with us, it is “cash on the barrel,” no more foriegn aid and alliances. If however, you decide to kill us over here, then, then the fooling around stops, as Hiroshima and Nagasaki learned. In short, many of us over here, if not… Read more »
Paul Rux, Ph.D, where’s your Ph.D from? The ‘coin of the real’, I suppose you mean ‘Coin of the Realm’? It is possible that this is a typo, but using the word ‘realm’ with regards to the U.S.A. is a little misplaced. ‘Islationists’, I suppose you mean ‘isolationists’ (derived from that complex word ‘isolation’!). If what you’re suggesting is that America won’t start any more wars under false pretences or without a real international mandate, I think most of the world would say (in the words of Bart Simpson) “D’oh, that’s what I said to do” In any case, a… Read more »
B, I raised a valid point. If the birth rate for the idigenous Irish Population is lower than that of the non-nationals, then we are in dnager of being out bred in our own country. That will fuel the fears greater that we have currently with large volumes of immigration still entering Ireland, this is dangerous because we also have emigration occuring at the same time. I’ve heard disturbing that from Jan to May this year; 60,000 people arrived (15,000 each month) if this continues we will be a minority in 20 years…….. not to mention birth rates. Those of… Read more »
Observer the CSO telephone number is 021 4535000 call them and ask how may foreigners were born. Until then you are just sabre rattling and relying on fear and misinformation against those who have worked hard during the boom. Youtube is not a scientific gauge of anything. How come the US with massive immigration has still its own culture. And the Irish language was dead at the end of the 19th century. A few Poles and Latvians are not here to kill it off. I support my county. We have 10 people employed where I am from. ALL ARE IRISH.… Read more »
B, I’m just stating facts from what I know so far. The Catholic Church provided you and almost everyone else in this country with an education, that is a priviledge especially when for years under colonial rule we were the underclass of our country ruled over mostly by decadent sectarian landlords. It sickens me when people bite the hand that fed them for all those years, just because there were a few bad apples doesn’t been the whole box contaminated……..just remember alot of those who spoke about abuse were the priests themselves………it was some corrupt cardinals that covered it up.… Read more »
Ah sure god be with the days when you were either okay or a straight, and being Irish was something to do with tourism. Then they bundled us into the back of cars and hauled us up the Dublin mountains; well somewhere near Hellfire club, the mountains to us. Anyway. We were dragged out on the ground and with guns in our faces they said: “we’re takin’ over the business.” One friend whispered to me: “are they the Progressive Democrats” “No you eejit, it’s the Dunne’s from Dolphins Barn, and before you ask, they’re Irish, and none of them even… Read more »
SORRY!
Michael O’Leary
And while you’re at it Cyrano, will you pass us the vodka so I can water down me stout. Great to see the teenagers getting along though. Makes me I was one again. Observer, the joke is that anyone who overran this place and took it over became Irish anyway. I have even heard it argued that the English language has its first seeds in Wexford due to the strong mix of Saxon and French (I think this has never been confirmed, but I’d not be surprised). Back in the 17th Cen about 30% spoke French!! Guess what…The Irish are… Read more »
Hello good article once again David. However you don’t seem to take account of the positives and benefits of a resurgent Russia. Take for instance, the rising China (technically resurgent if you consider its mid- 19th century decline from great and ancient power status), China has 1.3 billion and could prove disastrous for the West’s place in the world, and threaten, thwart and blackmail the nations of the west. Well they may think twice about getting cheeky if they have a powerful and resurgent Russia on their northern border to deal with, along with another great power the United States.… Read more »
Observer you have yet to furnish ANY facts at all!
The Church CHANGED SIDES from the landlords to the revolutionaries when it suited them. They are not the saviours of Irish culture you revere.
The murder rate is high because we tolerate drugs. The middle classes are disconnected from the supply and think that drugs = a good time not a skanger gangster getting filled with bullets.
Watered down Irish. Lads you have little to be worried about.
Hello good article once again David. However you don’t seem to take account of the positives and benefits of a resurgent Russia. Take for instance, the rising China (technically resurgent if you consider its mid- 19th century decline from great and ancient power status), China has 1.3 billion and could prove disastrous for the West’s place in the world, and threaten, thwart and blackmail the nations of the west. Well they may think twice about getting cheeky if they have a powerful and resurgent Russia on their northern border to deal with, along with another great power the United States.… Read more »
China was the first state that Russia successfully exported communism to. This should not be forgotten.
Pat Buchanan…Hahahahaha.
So this is where the crazies all live?
David seems to think that the Georgian situation is the biggest political event for sometime.
Mr B you got me blocked the last time, i’m not going to bother my arse debating you again. And thank you observer for pointing out his anti-Catholic comments. I for one don’t even attend church, and intend going back when i’m in my 60s (lol don’t tell Fr Tom)- but I as much as anybody appreciates the fine education that Ireland gets from the Catholic church, at no cost, and a system which is second to none worldwide, probably only surpassed by some nerdy nations like Japan. Nobody EVER said that the Catholic church was Irish (its transnational, catholic… Read more »
Not at all David22, thank you for pointing out that many who’ve benefitted from their education have thrown it back in the face of church. Philip, you clearly haven’t lived abroad have you? After living in the UK for 20 years; I can certainly confirm that many, if not all Irish Expatraites who want to come back to Ireland are wallowing in despair when they hear what is actually happening to their country. People in my immediate family are angered when they visit home, the sights and sounds of what they remember are vanishing all for the sake of accomodating… Read more »
Dev let in no Jews during WW2 under instructions from John Charles McQuaid. For Gods sake David 22 did you live here at all. Ireland was in the pocket of the Church for decades. They decided literally who lived and died, who went into the mental hospitals and who should be shunned to spend their lives in the US or UK. They were fascists in all senses of the word. Dev was a fascist and a pin headed small minded one at that. He had no ideas and no idea. I have no interest debating David 22 or Observer on… Read more »
I could debate with you until the end of time B, fact of the matter is I won’t. Fact is that you are just as bad as the people you oppose and fictionally portray as fascists, fact remains they educated you and helped you become the man you are today. They gave you the path and motivation for success to get qualifications. I don’t blame the migrants solely for the problems we face, this misfortune was the result of those in power who were ignorant of the consequences and arrogant enough to believe that they could do better. The visitors… Read more »
Dev never educated anyone. I wouldn’t accuse the Christian Brothers of education either. Witness the uneducated workers exported to the UK to work on the roads. People didn’t leave Ireland in the 50’s and 60’s. They were thrown out. The government bankrupted the country pursuing idealistic policies. Far right policies. My grandmother was thrown out to England for being a widow in the 50’s. My Great grandfather was thrown out for having a job in the post office and the IRA told him to get out of Ireland. Both by force. Both people being Irish and Irish born. I would… Read more »
Mr B your sort would never stop, and would NEVER be happy with this country until it was less than 50% Irish. While some of us are shouting “iceberg write ahead”, you insist on keeping the ship we live in toward it. And you don’t have a clue Mr B- this country and its people we’re treated like pure sh*t, and little better than field animals by the English upper classes in London. And you speak of us been “rascist” the second we debate immigration, but that is because we actually LIKE Ireland, and want to preserve, nothing to do… Read more »
Yet another personalised attack from you. I never saw you voting against the EU before now. This was all in the previous treaties brought before the people who we were told to vote YES for becasue it is more patrioitic. Its a bit late turning your guns on me when you had your chance in the ballot box at Nice, Nice 2, Maastrict etc. What the hell do you think you were voting for there? Extra holidays and better looking women? Cop on to yourself. Technically Davy 22 Irelands title was passed from the British Crown to the Irish State.… Read more »
And I am not Anti-Catholic as you bigots pointed out.
I am an athiest and unapologetic of this fact.
Please lads, instead of hammering me with your bibles possibly come to the table with the odd fact instead of hell and brimstone and random idiotic rabble rousing against people that have done little to hurt you and save your ire for the politicians who are obviously not representing your views.
In other words grow up and live a little and stop being angry little men with little to do but point the finger.
Hi everybody. And I do mean everybody, this is not directed at any one person in particular. First of all, let me give you a proper introduction. My name is Ronan Quirke, I have the label of “webmaster” here on David’s site. Essentially I look after the site which includes adding in new content, performing maintenance, upgrades, new bells and whistles and keeping an eye on comments. Oh and sometimes getting calls from David when his printer has broken again. When I first put in the comment system for articles, we decided that anything goes except for one rule: the… Read more »
@ Mr Ronan Quirke , maybe you should throw a few in the sin bin, as on just visiting here today I was beginning to wonder who’s site is this any way ? ( had to read 48 posts to get to here ! ) You are correct it Is David we should be challenging or attacking, but alas when you give such freedom as you have given here, you will always have the one or two ( not counting ) who think they know more and want to let us all hear them !. The World is changing ,… Read more »
Oh here is the link to what is now America’s best seller http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Revolution:_A_Manifesto