There’s something unsettling about finding yourself at home in bed, under the duvet, Pringles in one hand, remote in the other, binge-watching ‘House of Cards’.
As you try to come to terms with where you have ended up, can you take some comfort in the fact that a significant chunk of the reasonably well-educated bourgeoisie is also addicted? Are we, at all hours of the night, gorging on Netflix, checking emails, responding to Whatsapp groups, booking an Uber or buying something on Amazon?
Is technology taking over our world and what does it mean for the global economy and for our way of thinking about the world?
In this update, let’s tease out some of the connections – not always apparent – between technological innovation, low productivity, wage deflation and the conundrum faced by central banks everywhere. The central banks’ dilemma is that they are itching to raise rates but finding no reason to do so.
Economics is constantly evolving
At the beginning of every year, when my students sit down in front of me at Trinity College in Dublin, I can’t stress enough the importance of not only what they’ll learn in textbooks, but what they see happening in the world around them. As the world changes, our understanding of the economy should change too. But sometimes it doesn’t.
Too regularly, economists – and in particular policymakers – display a form of ‘groupthink’ and seem wedded to old models that appear impervious to the changes that are taking place in the real world.
Groupthink, when wrong, can lead to huge policy errors and have enormous unnecessary repercussions. As the global economy is growing and unemployment is falling, the default position of central bankers, from the Fed to the BoE to the ECB, is that inflation has to be around the corner.
But, what if it’s not?
What if policymakers in their ivory towers wedded to old ideas do not appreciate that technological change and the likes of Whatsapp, Uber, Amazon and Netflix, are driving deflation not inflation?
Furthermore, the data suggest that wages are not rising and productivity is on the floor. How do we explain this at a time when productivity should be rising and wages too?
Both issues, (1) the deflationary impact of technological disruption and (2) the productivity paradox, are interrelated and have huge policy implications. Let’s explore them and more, but for the sake of clarity, take each one in turn.
When is a curve not a curve?
Now it might be helpful to remind ourselves that central bankers believe in the Phillips Curve. The Phillips Curve is the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment. Every religion has a creed – a set of core beliefs. For central bankers, the creed is the Phillips Curve.
The mantra goes like this: as unemployment falls, more and more firms want to employ more and more workers, but there are fewer and fewer workers available. So wages rise. The worker knows that if his boss doesn’t give him a rise, he can go across the road to the guy with the ‘vacancies’ sign in the window and get paid more. This process triggers wage inflation.
At some point the economy runs out of workers and wages rise. Traditionally, this threshold was an unemployment rate of between 5% and 6%.
While higher wages give more income to workers, they constitute higher costs to employers and ultimately less profit. Because companies traditionally work on a fixed profit margin basis, as the employer’s costs go up, the company simply increases retail prices to sustain profit margin. And, because everyone is getting a pay rise, everyone has more income. This increased income allows the market to absorb the increases in prices as everyone has more money.
Therefore, the traditional mantra of central banking is based on two crucial beliefs: first, the ability of the worker to push up wages when unemployment is falling (or at least falls to a certain level) and second, the subsequent ability of the employer to pass on the increased costs through higher prices.
Years ago, as a rookie economist at the Central Bank of Ireland, my first job was to assess these inflationary relationships. Sure we did lots of research, but my favourite was ‘crane counting’. This highly sophisticated approach involved standing on the top floor of the bank, one of the tallest buildings in Dublin (a low-rise Georgian city) and counting cranes on the horizon. The more cranes, the more activity, the higher future wages in construction and somewhere down the line, we could be sure of an uptick in inflation.
Common sense works – or at least it did.
However, the relationship between unemployment and inflation appears to be breaking down or at least shifting. Could technology be the reason?
Unemployment is falling everywhere but inflation isn’t rising. In the US and the UK unemployment has been falling and falling but wages have remained depressed. Even in the eurozone, which has created more than five million new jobs in the past three years, wages remain depressed.
This creates problems for the major central banks because after years of QE they are trying to ‘normalise’ before the next downturn. By ‘normalising’ the bankers mean they want to unravel QE, shrink their balance sheet and raise interest rates. They want to get back to the pre-crisis status quo.
The last thing the central banks want is to enter a new recession with rates close to zero because if rates are already at zero, how can the central bank fight a recession?
But in order to raise rates they need an inflation trigger. The dilemma for the central banks is that there is no inflation, even though unemployment is below the level (5-6%) where we traditionally see rising wages.
This defies economic wisdom, particularly in the US, which is about to enter its ninth year of economic expansion and unemployment is headed towards 4%.
So what is happening?
Why are wages and inflation in general not rising? And what might watching Netflix have to do with all this?
Creative destruction
To explain this, let’s go back to theory. The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter came up with the term ‘creative destruction’ to explain the natural process whereby recessions and human ingenuity create innovations and these innovations produce ‘disruptive technologies’. Such disruptive technologies like Uber, Amazon, Whatsapp, Google maps or Netflix, destroy old industries, slash prices and change the ground rules. Schumpeter argued that these forces are so strong they drive down inflation structurally.
In terms of Uber, Whatsapp and Amazon, these new technologies are driving down prices undermining the old fixed margin businesses. Taxis, retailers, telecom companies and all sorts of leisure companies can no longer add margin to their price to make up for increased costs.
So the issue is what if Schumpeter is right and Phillips is wrong?
In a sense, Schumpeter argues that we should embrace change because it is invigorating, while the central banks using Phillips are constantly trying to deploy policy to get us back to where we were before.
Could we be in a Schumpeterian world of technologically-inspired deflation, where the old relationship between wages, employment and inflation has broken down?
For this to be the case, something profound also has to be happening to wages.
Amazon undermines the fixed profit margin model of retail, but what if some other deflationary force is going on in the labour market even before the company worries about margin?
This brings us to robots and the productivity paradox.
The productivity paradox
Part of the ‘technology is everywhere’ story is the notion that robots are taking our jobs. This sounds plausible, very 21st century and is part of the general giddiness about Silicon Valley, tech stocks and general market hype. But the economist in me is concerned; if robots are really taking our jobs, why is productivity so low?
Robots replacing people should drive up productivity, but productivity clearly hasn’t read the script. Furthermore, because productivity increases determine wage rises, depressed productivity means depressed wages.
But, you might ask, are we not surrounded by all this amazing technology that is changing our lives? Well, yes and no. Clearly in entertainment, lifestyle and media, new technology is everywhere. And because we are all using it, like my Netflix addiction, we feel that it is more ubiquitous than it actually is. The hard data shows that technology is taking over not so much our lives, as much as taking over our spare time.
If we were actually living through enormous technological change four things would be happening. First productivity would be rising as we use this fabulous new technology to create more things. Second, wages would be rising too. Third, employment would be falling because companies would be investing in cheap robots to take over from more expensive humans. And fourth, all this investment in new technology would be captured in a surge in business investment.
But none of these four things are happening. Actually, the opposite is occurring.
More and more, rather than less and less, jobs are being created. Productivity is not exploding but stagnating. Wages are depressed and business investment is not surging but is, in fact, tepid.
So, it’s not that we are embracing technology but we aren’t embracing it enough. It’s not that there are too many robots out there – there aren’t enough of them!
Incidentally, when you think about it, the robot problem – employed workers getting paid more to do less – would be a ‘nice’ problem to have. Instead we are experiencing the opposite: workers are getting paid less and working more.
So why is this?
It has to do with three potential factors.
The first is structural. In the past thirty years, each recession has been taken as an opportunity to wring more inflation out of the system. In plain English this means that the worker pays. In a recession unemployment rises and wages fall and when the economy finally turns and the worker gets up off the canvas, he does so at a lower real wage than before. This outcome is policy-inspired wage compression.
The second factor is that technological disruption has made workers cheap all over the world. Technology allows companies to scour the world for cheaper workers and there has therefore been a convergence of the cost of labour around the world. Granted certain professions have done well as a result of technological change but, on average, wages have been kept in check due to competition. The global supply chain means that the global supply of workers, rather than the national pool of workers, sets the national price of labour and thus wages.
You could say the labour force has been Uberized!
You could also look at the productivity paradox from another angle. Many believe that productivity is low because investment has been weak, so workers have not had access to enough capital investment. But what if it’s actually the other way around? What if investment in technology, which drives productivity, has been low precisely because wages are low?
We are seeing low levels of productive investment because there’s no real need for companies to save money as workers are already cheap. The financial imperative for a company to invest in order to lower costs has gone away.
Therefore the causal relationship is from wages to technology, not from technology to wages.
It’s not that there is no productive investment going on, but it is not as much as the tech evangelists of Silicon Valley might have us believe. We are seeing more of the same. There’s nothing new about humans being replaced by machines. Ask the Luddites. It is the story of the global economy and will continue to be.
When those workers lose their jobs they don’t disappear, they try to get other jobs. Typically, they slip backwards into jobs that are less well-paid because they still have to put bread on the table. This competition also pushes down wages. And, the lower wages are relative to profits, the less investment there will be because companies won’t bother to invest in expensive machines when people are cheap. This same type of rationale explains the industrial under-development of the Southern slave-holding states relative to their Northern counterparts in the Antebellum US.
As a result, we get low productivity being driven by low wages, not the other way around.
Societally, this leads to higher levels of inequality between citizens who depend on wages for their income and those who depend on rents, dividends and assets. Politically, this drives populism as the disenfranchised worker might not have a good wage, but he has a legitimate vote.
Now let’s go back to the central bankers’ immediate dilemma.
To raise, or not to raise…
Despite central banks’ desire to tighten monetary policy, persistent deflationary pressures appear to be the problem, rather than incipient inflationary stresses. This is being driven by disruptive technology, which is undermining the ability of firms to pass on increased costs. This is keeping retail prices low.
Then there is the productivity paradox. How in a world of mass technology and robots, can wages be so low? Rather than taking our jobs as everyone is suggesting, robots aren’t taking enough. Wages are not low because productivity is low but rather the opposite is the case, productivity is low because wages are low.
Low wages mean cheap workers will do the job just fine, while the split between profits and wages will continue to go increasingly to profits. This split towards profits rather than wages has profound ramifications for the general economy because if wage growth remains weak, demand remains weak because rich people don’t create demand – or jobs for that matter.
Poor people spend, rich people hoard.
The average guy with a good wage, buying little bits all the time creates demand. Rich people in general hoard money rather than spend it. Therefore, if more of the return from the economy is going to dividends than wages, this money doesn’t filter down through the economy in the same way.
In Keynesian terms the poor guy’s multiplier is much larger than the rich guy’s. You get a much bigger bang for your buck from the poor guy than the rich guy.
Therefore, aggregate demand in this cycle has remained fragile.
So what’s the rush to normalise monetary policy? Why the rush to get back to the pre-crisis status quo?
It is because of ‘groupthink’ deep in the central banks. They want to get back to the status quo because that’s the way it’s always been. It’s an intellectual form of mean reversion!
There is no need to rush. In fact, the immediate issue isn’t inflation. It’s deflation, implying that the rate of unemployment can go lower and lower before wages begin to rise. The unemployment rate at which wage inflation rises could be 4%, it could be 3% or even lower!
If central bankers rush to raise rates mistaking a structural issue for a cyclical one, they may end up doing untold damage.
Subscribe.
It’s very interesting – another Henry Ford is needed to push productivity and wages.
Well, there is one explanation to David’s paradox.
His unemployment figures, sourced from officialdom, are wrong.
There’s not 4% unemployment, but perhaps 24% unemployment, it depends on your calibration (spin) of what defines unemployment.
The only paradox is we’re in a decade long global depression and officialdom has yet to admit it.
Hi David, I just read this and when I read the first few lines I finally thought a chink of light was appearing in the challenge you were making to the status quo economic consensus. Then you collapsed into a load of self contradicting over thought economic mumbo jumbo and my heart sank. This one sentence is where you should start to attempt to see the light; “But none of these four things are happening. Actually, the opposite is occurring.” KNOW WHY? The stats are bogus. Lets just say though the are not and accept your luddist hypothesis re technology.… Read more »
“The central banks’ dilemma is that they are itching to raise rates but finding no reason to do so.” More correctly put is. The central banks have succeeded in destroying the economy that higher interest rates cannot be afforded. The central banks are contracted to issue money as a debt. It is always loaned into existence. The commercial banks take deposits and central bank loans which are used as reserves for the basis of the mother of all leverages. It is called fractional reserve banking. It is reliably reported that the commercial banks lend out 30 times more money than… Read more »
If the current definition of unemployment is nonsense and that all jobs will, in the future, be uberised, then not only will the definition have to altered, but in order for productivity to be increased there will HAVE to be a UBI for everybody.
Hello David,
When introducing the topic of disruptive innovations I think you should also have included blockchain technology.
This technology is here to stay and it’s going to have a revolutionary impact on the world economy and indeed on the way we live our daily lives.
If you get a grasp of it earlier than your conservative colleagues then you are going to be one step ahead of them yet again as the full implications of blockchain technology continue to unfold.
Regards,
Adam.
“Globalisation: the rise and fall of an idea that swept the world”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/globalisation-the-rise-and-fall-of-an-idea-that-swept-the-world
Excellent article David! It started badly, talking about Netflix etc. allegedly causing global deflation, but you got it right in the end: “The global supply chain means that the global supply of workers, rather than the national pool of workers, sets the national price of labour and thus wages.” Or to put it another way, globalisation and immigration mean that workers will eventually all end up with the same, low and falling, standard of living, worldwide. I predicted this back in the 1990’s when globalisation was being touted as a good thing. “You could say the labour force has been… Read more »
[ As you try to come to terms with where you have ended up, can you take some comfort in the fact that a significant chunk of the reasonably well-educated bourgeoisie is also addicted? Are we, at all hours of the night, gorging on Netflix, checking emails, responding to Whatsapp groups, booking an Uber or buying something on Amazon? ] At which point, I digress. I am reminded of the T-shirt, showing the progress of mankind, which goes from ape to human, to somebody at a desk. There has to be a better path. None of the above is improving… Read more »
GDP in Ireland, and it’s derivatives, are misrepresentation. Unemployment statistics in the US, are also misrepresentation. This is obvious. America is caught up in a complex myriad of policy interventions that cause some people to do as little as possible, and that cause others to work endlessly, with no real gain. [ Maybe a McCreevy is needed to realign this ? I acknowledge that the Irish media has indoctrinated the populace to hate McCreevy. And they have succeeded.]. And I am not convinced about Euro area inflation calculations. For one thing the ECB is printing money, but it is flowing… Read more »
This article got me thinking about ‘economics’ again….briefly…. An interesting sketch of some of the pertinent issues but the emerging Big Picture is missing from this analysis. Culture drives Economics. Always has, always will. As the dyanamics of Brexit bite I see more and more ‘for hire’ signs in casualised retail environments which will soon have to ditch their zero hours race to the bottom and accept the power is now returning to those lucky enough to remain behind the Velvet Rope of the UK economy when it turbo-charges at warp factor speed away from the next Eurozone downward spiral… Read more »
I think that iPhones/iPads have become the new “Opiate of the Masses” with the so called “Millennials” being a great example of fuck all productivity or anything else as they Social Mediate their way to obscurity….
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
Crushed by the curve ; But, now AHEAD of the curve AND “TRENDING” . So, how about this increasingly famous Professor’s proposal to offer “accredited” academic Degrees in the Humanities with study online only, & student paying only for examinations ? . How credible can such a biz model be ? . I hope that they have modules in Austrian Economics [ also known as “Jewish Economics” ] ; Because, I am a fan of this as “real” economics ; Although, already with some modifications ; vis. I would add solutions & principles of mine that are seemingly not part… Read more »
Poor people spend, rich people hoard.
So true here in the UK.
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing “untold damage” (DavidMCWilliams… […]
Globalisation is NOT Globalisation ! . Globalisation is just increased control of the world by The Dreadful Few ; And, similar to that they are seeking to erode THE CONSTRUCT OF UR “MORALITY” BORDERS — e.g. whomsoever gets brainwashed to become “Gender Fluid” — they seek to erode THE CONSTRUCT OF UR “COUNTRY’s” BORDERS. And, they get u either to : willingly do this or slavishly do this. . . Of course, they nominate 1 country at any era to run each phase of their centuries old ongoing scheme. The prized globe within the Ark of the Covenant is said… Read more »
Just like Bee’s to the Honey, they found the Honey ;
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http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/1.802029
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God help this unfortunate woman from the Cryptos who are The House of Saud & are proving to be even more barbaric to innocents ;
Think of poor suffering Yemen besieged & undergoing mass starvation at the hands of Saudi Arabia with much help from The Dreadful Few’s USA.
And, all for to undermine Israel’s next target ; IRAN.
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing untold damage (DavidMCWilliams.ie) […]
[…] McWilliams: Central bankers behind curve and risk doing untold damage (DavidMCWilliams.ie) […]
FANCY ‘TAKING THE P”A”SS’ ON THESE AUSTRIANS ? . . http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/830675/EU-row-migrants-Italy-austria-border-army-soldiers-mediterranean-route . . //////////////////////////////////////////////////// . ARE THERE RECIPROCAL RIGHTS ON SUCH SERIOUS MATTERS FOR INDIGENOUS IRISH CITIZENS IN THE COUNTRIES OF SUCH NATIONALITIES ? . IF NOT, DOES THE L.E. OF THE IRISH GOVERNMENT — vis. [ “LEGISLATIVE / TDs” & “EXECUTIVE / MINISTERS + CIVIL SERVICE [ e.g DEPT. OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS e.g. highly praised by DMW Mr. Ray Bassett ]” — EVER PRESS THE CASE IN ALL SUCH COUNTRIES THAT ARE REMISS IN GRANTING TO INDIGENOUS IRISH THAT WHICH THEIR OWN NATIONALS GET FROM IRISH STATE ? .… Read more »
@ Grzegorz,
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INDIVIDUAL PRIVATE CITIZENS’PERSONAL + PRIVATE COMMUNICATIONS TRANSGRESSIONS BY IRISH STATE etc
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VERY VERY INTERESTING … AND BRAVE !
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http://www.humanrightsireland.com/MEPs/20January2015/Email.htm
David it is a sad day today. One of my very first posts here was about the fact that a target inflation rate of 2% was bad policy and that “things” should be getting cheaper and that CBs needed to wise up. The reason as you, sort of, suggest is technological advance. And it’s only starting. Now either I’m one smart motherfucker or the CBs are just fuckers out to screw us or they’re a bunch of idiots. I quickly ruled out option one which leaves us with the other two options. My money is “just fuckers” make selfish selfserving… Read more »
I did not read this yet ;
But, I expect it to be very cleverly written for to downplay the “cosy shop” that the Irish State Civil SERPENTS have.
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http://www.impact.ie/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Public-Service-in-Germany1.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1Js8wntdk4
David McWilliams writes: “Unemployment is falling everywhere but inflation isn’t rising. In the US and the UK unemployment has been falling and falling but wages have remained depressed.” David, in your good, erudite and informative article you seem to have completely missed an even more important factor for inflation and wages are not rising: because the velocity of money has been FALLING: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2015/May/Velocity-of-our-money-chart-investment-u.png ///////// Btw, inflation is rising – just not in goods now included in the basket to measure inflation, such as housing: http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/nominal-house-prices-91–600×418.png or beef: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=beef&months=120¤cy=eur ___________________________________________________________________________________________ P.S. Grzegorz Kolodziej April 17, 2017 at 1:40 pm “On the… Read more »
GET IT ! . The Mainstream Media — eg. CNN, New York Times, Reuters, United Press International, The Sun, The Sunday Times, Hollywood, are NOT “Prestitutes” ; Because, “How can the Client stock be simultaneously the Prostitute of himself ?” . Their mothers should know ; After all, the mothers may be sisters or even 1 AND the same 8-) ; It all is traced to the Mothers anyway 8-) Anyway, neither The Dreadful Few or particular junior to them MSM really hate Trump. Rather, they hate “The Sons of Japheth” who voted for him. . . Makow just tweeted… Read more »
EMOTION VS FACTS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj2dfxDPbdc
https://www.jsmineset.com/ ————————————————————————– The coming reset will be a combination of market activity and edict. Few if any know what it will look like, and even fewer will know how to make a fortune because of it. I understand how to do this, and so do you who have remained with us the last 14 years. Some know and others will find out. We are on the precipice of a wealth transfer. Some of you are already prepared and just haven’t realized it yet. I will outline in detail the “how” as the time approaches. My 14 year veterans will not… Read more »
TRUMP IS A RAT to the decent & waking-up people who voted for him.
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PROOF !
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https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-allies-hammer-syrian-army-hezbollah-grad-rockets/
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Of course, Hillary — Pedophile — Clinton would do the same.
SNAKES & LADDERS . . Apropos of u should go the the Civil SERPENTS route ; . . @HenryMakow HEADING OF MAKOW’s Tweet ; Toronto says steps will cost $100K ; Man builds them for $550 Don’t ask what government can do for you, just do it . . THE ARTICLE OF THE LINK ITSELF ; City says steps will cost at least $65,000; man builds them for $550 By Lionel Lim, CNN . Updated Fri July 21, 2017 . (CNN) Update: The stairs are gone! On Friday morning, a group of workers descended upon the staircase and dismantled it… Read more »
HEADING ; Read it and weep: QE, the largest transfer of wealth in history Dan Glazebrook Self-Blurb about Author “Glazebrook” ; His first book “Divide and Ruin: The West’s Imperial Strategy in an Age of Crisis” was published by Liberation Media in October 2013. It featured a collection of articles written from 2009 onwards examining the links between economic collapse, the rise of the BRICS, war on Libya and Syria and ‘austerity’. He is currently researching a book on US-British use of sectarian death squads against independent states and movements from Northern Ireland and Central America in the 1970s and… Read more »
BEWARE OF THE GARDA-LANDLORDS / LANDLORD-GARDAI “MOWING THE LAWN” AT A “TENEMENT” & / OR “HOMELESS + ROOFLESS EXPOSITION” NEAR EWE ! . . No doubt our own Peelers, & the worsening caliber of Army personnel [ And, this a relatively recent regrettable development ; Because, actually, our army folk were in the main very good ; Certainly when compared with the Gardai ] have undergone the following “self-slogan” hostile training from that charming little democracy in the Middle East currently — by proxy & directly — making the life of the long-suffering large democracy Syria a living hell ;… Read more »
SINISTER ! … SINISTER ! … SINISTER !
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CANADA’s “BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION OF EACH & ALL INDIVIDUALS OF POPULACE” POLICY BEING OBLIQUELY CONDUCTED THROUGH “PRIVATE COMPANY’S ] MOBILE TELEPHONE APPLICATION [ APP. ] DEDICATED TO THIS WITH APPROVAL OF CANADIAN GOVERNMENT.
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JUSTIN TRUDEAU IS CLEARLY A “CREEP” !
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http://theantimedia.org/canadian-app-points-government-making-approved-choices/
ATROCIOUS NEWS FOR EACH & EVERY ONE OF EWES BASED IN UK !
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http://thefreethoughtproject.com/2018-uk-citizens-will-forced-identify-looking-porn/
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YE …SSS, IT DOES APPLY TO EWES ;
BECAUSE, IT IS WIDELY AGREED THAT “ECONOMICS IS THE NEW PORN”
8-)
@ Tony Brogan,
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Ref.
Ur link above ;
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http://www.jsmineset.com/
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Again, Jim Sinclair is very good today.
Re ;
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/state-seeks-financiers-to-manage-up-to-15bn-in-apple-tax-money-1.3163950
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IMMEDIATELY BUY Euro 15 billion WORTH OF ACTUAL GOLD WITH PAYMENT ONLY ON COMPLETION OF FULL DELIVERY ;
AND, IT THE CHOICEST GOLD & TESTED EACH & EVERY PIECE OF IT FOR AUTHENTICITY ;
AND, ANY PERSON[S] FOUND GUILTY OF NEGLIGENCE etc. IN THIS MATTER, PROSECUTED FOR TREASON.
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BUY IT NOW YEE F R E E M A S O N Civil SERPENT F..KERS !
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Yes, I know, … shades of what then Taoiseach Mr. Brian Cowan called Fine Gael, & no doubt would call Mehole too
I think it was the British Economist Charles Goodhart who once suggested that once a feature of an Economy (say inflation rate or unemployment rate) is taken as an indicator of that Economy then it soon ceases to be that indicator as people start to game their policies to suit or game the system in other words. I mean the changes that took place under Thatcher about how unemployment figures were calculated are beyond a joke at this stage. Then you had Milton Freidman spouting his old guff about monetary policy, Reganomics, Tony the spoofer Blair who wanted to endear… Read more »
A few points your comments seem to miss Millionaires do not create Aggregate demand You cannot create ore demand by making prices lower You cannot both add more robots AND create aggregate demand You have to create demand partly by making more disposable income available You cannot keep taking money out of the economy and expecting the economy to work You have to stop overpaying executives and stop allowing companies to extract profits our of economies and both of them rendering this wealth inert by hiding it in offshore tax havens You cannot create a health economy by continuing to… Read more »
[…] http://davidmcwilliams.ie/behind-the-curve/ […]
[…] most well-known economists who writes for The Irish Times thinks it’s a good idea. In an article in 2017 David McWilliams floated the idea on his own blog. This was the same guy who was a huge fan of furlough money […]
[…] most well-known economists who writes for The Irish Times thinks it’s a good idea. In an article in 2017 David McWilliams floated the idea on his own blog. This was the same guy who was a huge fan of furlough money in […]
[…] economists who writes for The Irish Times thinks it’s a good idea. In an article in 2017 David McWilliams floated the idea on his own blog. This was the same guy who was a huge fan of furlough […]
[…] most well-known economists who writes for The Irish Times thinks it’s a good idea. In an article in 2017 David McWilliams floated the idea on his own blog. This was the same guy who was a huge fan of furlough money in […]