Today, Breakfast Roll Man is looking at his ghost estate. Not one sold. The three auctioneers don’t return his calls. Nothing is working
A bewildered Breakfast Roll Man can’t quite believe his eyes. It’s like watching Paul McShane at right full for Ireland; he’s got to pinch himself and ask how it happened. How did the banks pull the rug from under his development in Kells? Two years ago when he paid (admittedly, a fair whack) for the site, they told him they would stand behind him. He remembered that little twerp from the bank’s head office with the shiny suit and buckets of gel in his ‘fin’ haircut.
In ‘fin boy’ strolled to give Breakfast Roll Man the spiel about how the demographics of the country were excellent and how the Irish fundamentals were sound. He laughed as he described County Meath as Ireland’s ‘baby belt’, where young children outnumber the elderly four to one. He chummily patted Breakfast Roll Man’s shoulder and forecast that ‘they’ would be able to sell the houses, no bother.
Even then Breakfast Roll Man was a bit worried about the spec. He’d explicitly chased the market upwards, sparing no expense, with ‘islands’ in the kitchen, expansive decking, hot tubs and second faux-marble bathrooms downstairs.
But the bank assured him that they’d finance the first time buyers — who apparently were getting ‘more demanding’.
There’d be no problem and we’d be out by Christmas 2007, they said. Even if there was a bit of ‘resistance’ as they called it, the bank would roll over interest payments, ‘kick’ out the maturity a few years and wait for the buyers to snap them up.
Sure anyway hadn’t everything worked for him before? He was sorted. Breakfast Roll Man had it all going on.
Today, he’s looking at his ghost estate. Not one sold. The three auctioneers — all of whom told him that they’d sell the houses off plans — don’t return his calls. Nothing is working, not even the idea of paying the first three years’ interest for first time buyers. Prices are dropping like a stone and there is still no floor.
As for the banks, they are squeezing every last penny out of him. Worse still, the personal guarantees — or ‘PGs’ as ‘fin boy’ called them — mean that everything he worked for since 2000 is tied to this field on the N3. His whole world is cross-collateralised.
Back in 2001, he took some politician’s advice and started to shop around. He started dealing with all the banks, thinking he was smart. But the bank’s insistence on personal guarantees meant that everything was now tied up, nothing was his. All his properties were weaved together in a web of debt and he — Breakfast Roll Man — was sitting squarely in the middle, facing bankruptcy.
How did this happen?
Had you told him in 2005 that he’d be facing ruin and his only parachute was to go back to the US to work on jobs in the freezing New York winter, undercutting Hispanic builders, he’d have told you where to go. Back then, during the last years of the Bertie Boom, Breakfast Roll Man was the subbies’ subby. He was employing Polish lads, driving a blacked-out Touareg, flipping apartments in Dunshaughlin and buying off plans in Bulgaria. The only way was up. He had a full Bose ‘surround sound’ home entertainment system, Katya, the exotic Czech ‘dancer’ in the master bedroom, a season ticket at Old Trafford in his back pocket and a direct line to bank credit whenever he wanted.
He’d never again work for anyone else. He was free and what’s more, he was the first one in his family to be free. He and his younger brother — a chippy — laughed when they remembered their Dad talking about loyalty. Well check out what loyalty did for him after thirty years at Dunlops in Cork!
Credit and his own hard work had liberated him from the snobby class of bankers, insurance men and doctors who ruled the Ireland of the 1980s. He felt vindicated driving past them in his 06 Jeep, bidding for their houses at auction and eyeing up their daughters at Lillies.
Breakfast Roll Man voted for Bertie. He only got the vote in 1994, just as Bertie was coming to prominence. He benefited from the tax cuts, the builder bias in every Budget and when he started ploughing surplus cash into tax-free car parks no one could argue with him that Bertie wasn’t the man. After all, even Katya — who didn’t say much, between the pouts — claimed that he looked like an honest man in the VIP ‘exclusive’ of ‘Bertie at Home’ that she kept beside the king-sized waterbed.
Bertie had a social contract with Breakfast Roll Man. The Taoiseach did everything he could to keep house prices rising and this gave hundreds of thousands the impression that they were getting rich.
This illusion acted like a prosperous conveyor belt, which we could jump on and in so doing avoid the heavy lifting of hard work. Bertie promised Breakfast Roll Man a get-rich-quick scam and in return Breakfast Roll Man gave Bertie his support and ignored the blatant deficiencies in our public services. All this carry-on on Joe Duffy about class sizes, waiting lists and trolleys on corridors passed him by. The only thing that got him texting was the bleedin’ toll bridge.
He even voted for Bertie last time because although house prices were beginning to wobble, he trusted Bertie to sort things out. As far as Breakfast Roll Man was concerned he voted for Bertie not Fianna Fail. But he realises now he was sold a pup. He doesn’t know what to make of Cowen.
Breakfast Roll Man was never ideological. He knows nothing about the civil war. Sean Lemass might as well have been Brian Boru as far as he is concerned. Wolfe Tone sounds like a children’s Halloween character and his Ma couldn’t stand De Valera. He is now a floating voter, with allegiance to no one.
Whoever wants to win the next election has to get inside Breakfast Roll Man’s head. He wants security, not risk; familiarity not novelty and above all he wants to be given a second chance. Like thousands of others, he deserves it. But who is going to throw him a lifeline? Can you afford to pay for his parachute?
Are you not contradicting yourself? You said before that the housing market should not be artificially bouyed up, but allowed to hit it’s natural level. Here you are exhorting the twits to back BRM up? Let him fail, and his ilk.
opportunity for nimble thinkers. Solve the school infrastructure problem with one feel swoop. Close of some of the hotels that got tax breaks and convert them into schools Or as the blog post below, let the schools turn to commercial spaces available in the down turn. I do know of one PLC section of a large community school are in rented accommodation in the local industrial park so it can be done. http://213.232.94.135/merlinjohnonline/news.php?item.395.3 As I commented on a previous post, the English government are in the process of renovating all secondary schools over the next 10 years to provide spaces… Read more »
Script extract:
Father Dougal
“Ted, Ted. Wouldn’t it be mad if one building industry tycoon reinvested all the profits he earned in the building boom into the same bank that lent him all the funding for the boom years and then bet against all the short sellers who drove the bank into the ground because the bank lent the money without enough capital and both the bank and the tycoon lost it all?.
Wouldn’t it Ted?”
Father Ted
“Would ya go on outta dat, Dougal, sure that’d never happen”
oops forgot the real useful link to read
http://www.tomweaver.co.uk/think/creditcrunchme.php
Is there a viable alternative to the western capitalist economic model? Surely it is not just a question of regulating the finanical institutions in this country- I pose this question sincerely, surely the inequities in this country are a result of decision making and the system our political and business elite adhere to? The 300,000 people who seek assistance from Saint Vincent De Paul annually, the 40,000 children in prefabricated buildings, the 280,000 unemployed, the millions in debt etc, surely this is not the way forward for us. Instead of aggressive competitiveness in the jobs market and executive boardroom –… Read more »
You have just described me! I sold a business in 2006 and invested (unwisely in retrospect) all my lifes earnings and am now stuck with a small housing development. I even had contracts and deposits on unfinished houses but the bank said contracts weren’t worth the paper they were written on and refused further funding. I have even tried to off load the houses below cost to no avail. With the development and my own personal guarantees I stand to loose everything. Renting is not even an option. Surely the current economic approach by the Irish government is incorrect. Basic… Read more »
Is there a viable alternative to the Western Capitalist model of economic development? I pose this question sincerely. I think this boom and bust cycle has educated a lot of people however those in the political and business elite seem in denial. The 300,000 who seek support from Saint Vincent De Paul annually, the 280,000 unemployed, the 40,000 children in prefabricated buildings, the massive inequalities between rich and poor in this country would seem to indicate that there is something radically wrong. I am sure there are nice business people, who do charitable work, provide employment and genuinely believe they… Read more »
Not a word on the budget!.Seeing as the govt will be borrowing 15% of GNP within 2 years, I think this is what needs to be debated and solved.The economy is a right mess , but anyone who saw the Lawson boom and bust knew it was coming.We are in an even bigger mess than the Brits were, @ least they left the ERM and growth resumed.How will spending be cut?.We are stuck once again with thousands of people we don’t need.Thanks to the Irish Times and the liberal ilk for that!.The highest paid teachers and the worst school buildings,… Read more »
if Breakfast Roll Man gets his second chance does that not simply increase the moral hazard. To put it another way if he gets a bailout whats to stop him doubling-down and getting into even more debt? If we liken BRM to a debt-junkie surely its up to us to cut off his supply instead of further enabling his anti-social behaviour?
Is he driving a Jeep or a Touareg? You referred to two different cars in your piece.
David, when you copy and paste material from David Brooks, it’s important to make some slight changes to the text so that the plagiarism isn’t so obvious.
I think David is saying everyone deserves a second chance. But reality is that that will not happen because no one can afford it. You know, I am a bit cheesed off at the lack of investigative journalism right now…I think this latest column and similar I see elsewhere suggests a malaise of constantly referring to generalities and drawing broad conclusions. It’s lacking meat. I’d like to see some investigative journalism into the Government and the Banks. David has done a fine job of laying the framework. Now, can we see some guys do a Veronica Guerin (who I regard… Read more »
David said: …..get inside Breakfast Roll Man’s head. He wants security, not risk; familiarity not novelty and above all he wants to be given a second chance. Like thousands of others, he deserves it. But who is going to throw him a lifeline? Can you afford to pay for his parachute? BRM’s misfortune was that he apparently never learned those simple lessons in assembling a property portfolio that are second nature to anyone who has played the board game Monopoly. Don’t build hotels on the Old Kent Road. Take a Chance and Advance to Mayfair. Perhaps if BRM (or Sean… Read more »
Phillip, Do you mean that we should have some investigative journalism into how greedy we were in thinking that we could go on borrowing to fund the sort of life-style to which David is alluding? EU interest rates were low, banks were under pressure from their shareholders and from each other in a competition to lend more and more. Developers could borrow cheap and build dear and we mugs bought on the back of the banks’ encouragement. 4-wheel drives, 45″ TV’s and holidays in the Maldives, for God’s sake! Government went along with it ’cause we were all ecstatic and… Read more »
I’ve a bit of sympathy for BRM. he was supplying a service for basic supply & demand economics. BRM should not be confused with PSM, Prawn Sandwich Man. He who had the corporate box at Old Trafford and access to all DMcW alludes to above. The invisible secretive feudal baron who manipulated BRM to line his pockets. BRM is now, as described, in serious do-do but PRM still maintains the box in OT, is even more secretive if not sinister and colludes with his financial/ political collegiates to exfoliate any culpability. “Twas the greedy BRM wot led us astray, M’lud”… Read more »
Hi David, This Breakfast Roll Man (BRM) you outline will get little sympathy from the public at large. He is not typical if he was developing his own housing estates and has now been left in debt and with a falling asset – ie: negative equity. He made hay while the sun shone (or seemed to shine) and now he is akin to your other categorisation – Paddy Last, but just at a bigger scale. Its true that bigger versions of BRM (ie: Suited Man who sometimes dons a Hardhat) had policies enacted by FF that supported them and their… Read more »
Tough shit. No sympathy for coked up overborrowed aggressive tossers. I come from an area that was built up and run by the breakfast roll mafia. Houses on one side and dead drug dealers on the other. Dealers that get themselves smiling on the front of the paper and are untouchable. Let them hang out to dry. Let them go bust. At least now some reality has returned to the market. It is impossible to compete with people who have unlimited access to resources and every intention of making everyone else wear their risk and make them rich. Its short-term… Read more »
There are a lot more at risk of the scrap heap than Breakfast Roll Man and who will help them? Somebody with an entrepreneurial bent below 40 can take a few knocks but thousands of others losing jobs in manufacturing and construction, have a bleak period ahead and we may well be facing 5 years of below trend growth. One of our ministerial dunces will no doubt sing the mantra about “upskilling” but a fat lot of good that will do for many people. The “plight’ of high profile developers will get attention but the wrecked lives from political short-term… Read more »
@Lorcan
Actually, this is a far more telling piece:
https://www.tribune.ie/archive/article/2006/nov/12/so-whos-the-real-daddy-of-the-popes-children/
Cheers,
Socket
Ger > I ask do people from all sectors have the capacity to work together for the common good? They certainly do. But there needs to be an obvious common good to work towards. The best example I can think of is the British during World War II. People accepted poverty and did anything they could for the common good, because the ‘good’ was their freedom from Nazi rule. It was an easy sell. Profiteering was next to illegal, even if a black market in rationed goods flourished. There has to be a clear and present danger before people change… Read more »
Breakfast Roll man is a consumer berhaviour buyer group entity. He is hyped up with confidence. False confidence. Breakfast Roll man is missing the character strengths/virtues needed to get him through the next decade. Modesty. Humility. Frugality. Honesty. Directness. Efficiency with resources. Sobriety. Calmness. Self-respect. An appreciation of value that is not built on hype and deception. An ability to see through empty promises, bad deals. A healthy dose of scepticism. That is an awful lot to learn in a short spell. This all raises two questions. i) Can breakfast roll man turn it all around ? Has he got… Read more »
I have just realised. Irish pride and the American suburban lifestyle are proving to be a lethal combination for any concept of society in this country. That which Kunstler warns to America also applies here. But we are proud where the Americans have proven inflexible. How many are ready to say “I followed a delusion”.
Deco. You nailed it.
I was struck by how dated the whole thing is…. reading about breakfast roll man in his pomp is like watching reeling in the years… seems like another world.
Guys, I’m one of those who looked at Ireland Plc, looked at the price of property in comparision to average industrial wage all the way back in 2003 and decided to emigrate. It has been clear since back in the very late 90’s that Ireland was going for broke in terms of our cost base (too high) and investment in infrastructure. It wasn’t possible to become even ‘comfortable’ on 20% above the average industrial wage without investing in property. For those that stayed and rode the wave – I hope it was fun, but surely you realise that no-one should… Read more »
BRM is in trouble because he misread his relationship with the banks. I feel sorry for him. There are three primary reasons he overpaid his “fair whack” on the land. The first is that the banks and government had created an entirely unreal pricing situation, based on collusion and self interest. The government were delighted with the stamp duty revenue. The banks wanted to reflect ever higher asset values for their interests in the appropriately named land-banks around the country. The second is that he was greedy. He needed more money to feed ever greater investments and an ever more… Read more »
“McWilliams uses the same tool to make economic comment. I enjoy (though often don’t agree with) David’s articles. But they do stimulate lively debate, both here and elsewhere so are ceratinly worthwhile.” I’m one of the greatest culprits here to make social comment on an Economic discussion board. Mea Culpa. Back to Economics. The Communist model broke down essentially because human nature dictates that singular power whether administered by State or individual eventually becomes corrupted and loses the original principal. Socially then, the people lose faith and react violently. The current Darwinian evolution in economic thinking, per se capitalism from… Read more »
Legislators, Bankers, FF and PS and probably most of the media are all one and the same. Developers are now being dumped. Who’s next for the next wave of get rich quick schemes? I know, let’s try some corporatism- Ireland’s sovereignty will be sold to the highest bidder on the basis of the “boys” keeping their jobs and the legislators etc doing all the dirty work. Expect your rights as citizens to be redrafted in exchange for digging us out of the debt spiral. It’ll all be done out of patriotic duty etc. And before you know it, this country’s… Read more »
@ Socket twomey and Lorcan firstly well done with the link on the twin articles ! You see Mr Williams here is also whether you like it or not just another part of the over all system asking for twenty five Euro to go watch the American election on a big screen is just as bad as Breakfast Role Man asking for 400,000 for his badly built shoe box. Which he built off the back of cheap money and even a cheaper work force as he had all the east Europeans slapping up these houses. So Seamus if your in… Read more »
Furrylugs – I realise what you are saying about PSM, Prawn Sandwich Man. You are correct. We have bailed out PSM. And it has degraded our collective self-respect. In any other country, the Sean Fitzpatricks and Michael Fingletons of this world would have been taken out of their plush offices, and told to stop being a (expensive and insiduous) parasite on the rest of society. But in Ireland they can phone the lawyers trying to run the country’s finances, and get ‘orphans to the world’ levels of sympathy. Meanwhile the real orphans of Ireland’s substance abuse culture are left to… Read more »
[…] developers who’ve been making a fortune over the last ten years, but according to the bowld DavMcW they’re fucked […]
if there ‘s 180 trillion floating about in space in the form of derivatives then how will the whole system survive ?
if the irish government is only liable for x amount maximum? isn’t it possible that one of these high stakes bets could come back on one or all of the banks in one form or another?
is all of this a ploy by the real powerbrokers of the world to make people call for a world central bank,which would have the power over country’s central banks which makes them much easier to control? the illuminati ?possibly?maybe?
A philosophical perspective – hopefully containing impermissible mixed metaphors! Dear Irish Breakfast Roll Man, Loadsamoney (UK) and Patio Man (USA). You are all in this together so I’d like to offer you all some solace. When you’re down to your last few Euros, Pounds or Dollars: Download a song called ‘Spinning Wheel’ by Blood, Sweat and Tears. Then purchase a copy of ‘The Consolation of Philosophy’ by Boethius. You can read, can’t you? Even though, in your innocence, you never read all those contracts you signed in those plush city centre banker’s offices. Whilst you read this elegant, timeless tome:… Read more »
Hello people! We have the opportunity of a lifetime to unite together and put some real pressure to the government. I’m not talking about elections. I’m talking about the very real threat of everybody taking their savings out of the banks if things don’t change pronto. I’m talking seeing a few heads rolling at the head of the banks, I’m talking shifting the policy from supporting the builders and the banks to supporting small businesses and enhancing infrastructure in this country. If we could have someone who would organise a movement of the people, be a spokeperson for us all… Read more »
……the Russians are coming for Bank of Ireland..
Dav I agree with you to a certain extent, this is all a man made problem in the past to take over a country you needed weapons now all you need is finance and by keeping people in debt by giving them credit they become your slaves. During the boom I noticed nice 1st time buyers out bidding each other by getting a longer term on their mortgages…..a 35 year loan… thats modern day slavery. If these terms had been capped to say a maximum 25year it would have taken a lot of heat off the market!
“Whoever wants to win the next election has to get inside Breakfast Roll Man’s head. He wants security, not risk; familiarity not novelty and above all he wants to be given a second chance. Like thousands of others, he deserves it. But who is going to throw him a lifeline? Can you afford to pay for his parachute?” One problem here is that thousands of others are not being given a second chance. What about the investors on the stock market – do we give them a second chance? No – It says clearly that the value of stocks may… Read more »
> Those who stayed and kept their heads, were prudent in their investments and spending should under no circumstances be made to pay for the losses you have. BRM had the upside, now he’s got the downside. The problem is that the prudent people will have to pay for the problems of the country via tax. There is no hiding place. The innocent pay. > the banks got developers to sign personal guarantees knowing full well they’d extract their pound of flesh in a default situation. Possibly, but the banks themselves have not judged the scale of this slowdown wisely.… Read more »
David F__k BRM. He was a greedy little pig with his snout in the money trough playing with the big boys. His philosophy, along with the prawn sandwich brigade, was a line of BS. Nothing more. They robbed the people of Ireland blind for 15 years and enriched (sic) themselves in the process. It was like an addiction however. They didnt know when or how to stop. It all went too far and now it ends in tears. It needs to end in tears. Ireland became an economic miracle by manufacturing and exporting. Admittedly it was mainly done by multinationals… Read more »
The comments to this article are even more interesting than the article itself… ranging from malice & delight in seeing BRM’s downfall to more considered analysis, even Davids description of the stereotype is completely without sympathy, showing a thicko with a taste for bling and trophy girlfriends. The article does show ‘fin boy’ but this kid was just doing the banks dirty work. Cant help feeling theres a bit of snobbishness in the reaction to BRM’s downfall… Keep yer eye on the money lads, its all starting to come out now… http://www.herald.ie/national-news/biffo-running-mate-sued-over-scam-that-made-him-millions-1505210.html Now if BRM deserves no sympathy, these guys… Read more »
I am loving it!!!! I had the balls to stay off the mad property ladder because I knew this would happen. 350,000 Euro for a 1 bed flat in BRAY! Insane prices and so many of my friends fell for the idea that property can only ever increase in price. It was bad form on the banks and governments part by hyping it up but at the end og the day Breakfest Roll Man got f**ked because he was greedy.
As an earlier poster said, the comments on these pages are better than the articles. nice to have found such an articulate and informed bunch on the interweb, i don;t feel there is much i can add really.
Well, except for BRM, for whom I have this:
http://www.wikihow.com/Live-in-Your-Car
-L
I was chatting to my daughter this morning. She told me that because of the ensuing cutbacks due to the budget, the physics and chemistry teaching for the new 5years will probably be cut back. Reason? Becasue the majority of girls (65% plus) do not go for this hard science topics. Frankly, I really do not give a toss about BRM or his well identified and more culpable dickless equivalent – PSM. What I witnessed is an initial view of the first stages of grass roots elimination of hard skillsets – which is actually sexist as well. To date, no… Read more »
David
Would you mind informing us of where and how you found out so much about Katya ? and about her backround ,?
I’m sure a lot of people would be very interested !!
The great tragedy of all this is that anyone with an ounce of sense saw this coming. Take out building, the public service and to a lesser degree agriculture and there is very little else going on in the Irish economy. The people to feel sorry for is middle Ireland who kept their heads down throughout all this and may have to pay the price. The average family. You know the ones I am talking about Mam is a teacher or a nurse, Dad is a small farmer or factory worker. Two or three children who work hard in school… Read more »
David, always enjoy reading your articles. I don’t think people realize that you can’t have a 15yr boom & then a 2yr downturn, I think the downturn will last up to 5 yrs before things start to pick up again…….slowly. During this 5 yr period I think house prices should fall to realistic prices like €100,000 for a new 3 bed house, similar in price to a new 3 bed house in any developed country in the world. I think that prices should not exceed a 25yr repayment term, any house that takes over 25yrs to repay is overvalued in… Read more »
Juicylucy
You are spot on in regards to education
I only hope that all the comments and frustration here turns into concrete action in terms of the vote or activism otherwise future generations will be exposed to the same exploitative BS that we have seen in arguably one of the worst periods of avarice in Irish history. I hope that people don’t simply use this as a forum to blow off steam, we are not yet atomised (isolated individual consumers), as the OAP and students proved, people power can change things. I would ask all those who have been sufficiently motivated to respond in detail here to think about… Read more »
Thanks John H
I think the education system in Ireland is becoming similar to the HSE, you can pour billions into it & still have nothing to show for your investment, the cost of education is starting to outweigh the benefits.
People in Ireland spend years in education only to find that there is nothing for them to do when they reach the top levels.
Irish students and graduates etc need “opportunities” not a “little pull” from friends or family etc…… to get them that “lecturing job with all the benefits”.
Inside the head of BRM, where second chances in the real world are entitlement to be sorted by local pols, sure, they can’t let us all go down. Right, he’s the man, well look at the streets of Dublin with students and pensioners, and this is just the beginning, when the government is put into receivership effectively because they can’t take political responsibility for creating Uruguay, as you described it. You should start looking at how ordinary people can actually protect the few coppers they have managed to put aside, and the necessity of allotments, and back to the land… Read more »
Roubini’s view of future market turmoil is really quite scary!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Roubini%20Sees%20Crisis%20Worsening%2C%20Hurting%20Emerging%20Markets&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcYqArJFMJgA.asf