As a 21-year-old student, I stood in the Great Hall, Bruges, in September of 1988. Little did I know that the speech I was about to hear would constitute the opening salvos of a battle that would culminate with Brexit.
In the now-famous Bruges speech, Mrs Thatcher picked her audience, her moment and her message.
Along with ten other Irish students, I was a postgraduate at the College of Europe. The College of Europe is the West Point or Sandhurst of the EU. It is charged with training the next generation of European officials – and indeed, most of the friends I made there have become senior apparatchiks in the European bureaucracy. The Iron Lady knew this was the lion’s den, and she roared.
It is interesting today to go over that speech to see the points Thatcher raised, how prescient she was and how in touch with the feelings of the average English person.
The first thing she did was outline a vision that could have been described as British Gaulle-ism, in the face of those who want ultimately to see a united states of Europe. Thatcher followed Charles de Gaulle by asserting that the best way to build the European Community was “willing and active cooperation between independent sovereign states”. She dismissed the idea that the United States might be a model for the future of Europe.
At the time, lots of eurocrats were talking about the “embryo” of a European government emerging through the single currency. Indeed, this all came to pass with the loss of sovereignty of a number of EU countries and the pooling of sovereignty of so many.
She warned against a EU superstate: “We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of the state in Britain, only to see them re-imposed at a European level, with a European superstate exercising a new dominance from Brussels.”
It is easy to pick selectively from a speech and conclude that it was prescient in the extreme, but Thatcher’s concerns were bang on the money as far as Britain is concerned. Europe has been one of the dominant underlying issues in British politics since then.
If the “Irish question” divided, dominated and poisoned British politics in the 19th century, the Europe question has played a similar role in the 21st century.
Ultimately, the Irish question helped destroy the great Liberal Party. It brought Gladstone’s career to an end and ultimately led to the partition of Ireland.
After expending enormous resources between 1914 and 1918 on the Western Front, by 1922, the victorious British ended up losing more of their land mass than the defeated Germans.
The Europe question will destroy the Conservative Party, marginalise the Labour Party and give added fuel to the separatists in Scotland and Wales and, of course, the nationalists in the North. In fact, no matter what happens, the Union will be profoundly weakened by this vote, which is why the DUP should be careful what it wishes for.
If there is a majority for Brexit, here’s an obvious scenario that could unfold if there’s a break-up of the UK.
The English nationalists lead the British out of Europe. The Scottish react by going to the polls again, wanting to stay in Europe. They have to leave the UK to stay in the EU, and by a small margin they vote to stay in Europe, but leave the English.
The rump UK becomes an entity involving a eurosceptic nationalist England, a modestly pro-European but compliant Wales and an ever-divided Northern Ireland. However, it is a Northern Ireland shorn of its fraternal brothers, the Scots, in a union with the ambivalent English. There has never been the same cultural affinity between the English and the Northern unionists. And once the Scots are gone, why would the English bother with the Ulster unionists? After all, we know that people who divorce once are highly likely to do so again.
So that’s one scenario.
But now think of the alternative, in these very tight polls.
The Remain camp wins in Britain, just about, but loses in England. The result is carried by resounding majorities in Scotland, Wales and the North. These majorities are voted by Scottish, Welsh and Irish nationalists. Republican voters from West Belfast help preserve the Union. What would Bobby Sands make of that?
The nationalist majority in England blows a fuse and can’t believe that after winning the popular vote in England, their will is thwarted by nationalists in Scotland and Ireland whose ultimate goal is to destroy the Union. So the English are trapped in a pro-European, British Union that they want to get out of. The English are the paymasters – in fact, they pay for everything – but their democratic will is defeated by people whose dole they pay.
How do you think they will react?
They will agitate for an English referendum, obviously. Wouldn’t you?
Either way, win or lose, the Union will never be the same again.
If Britain goes and the EU reacts vindictively by throwing up barriers to that country, it is an attack on Ireland. Make no mistake about it. Our government can’t for the second time in five years behave like the model prisoner of the EU, accepting EU nastiness over common-sense diplomacy. We are not Poland, Italy or Greece; we need Britain. In the event of Brexit, if Germany commercially attacks Britain, as its overbearing finance minister said it would yesterday, that constitutes a declaration of war on the Irish economy.
Our trade with Britain is €1 billion a week. It is our biggest import market and second biggest export market; we are its fourth largest trading partner; there are more English people with one Irish grandparent then there are Irish people with Irish grandparents. When Jon Walters scores tomorrow, will you care that he’s pure Scouse – Irish blood, English heart? Last time I checked we didn’t have any Prussian lads playing up front. Our ties with England are too deep for us to be marching to a German drum.
Ireland’s overwhelming interest is in open borders with a post-Brexit Britain. We have vetoes in crucial areas of national policy. If we have to use them, we must. If there are areas where we need to get qualified majority voting, we had better start lobbying fast.
Ireland faces a choice post-Brexit: act in our self-interest, or assume the position. Which pose do you think Official Ireland will adopt?
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Enda, Meehole and their cronies will bring the Vaseline…
…a family-sized tub.
The Germans export about £56B to the UK; the Dutch £34B, Belgium £20B, Italy £15B, France £25B Poland £8B, Sweden £8B and Spain £13B (2014 figures).
Does anyone in their right mind actually believe that with the shitty economy in Europe that some kind of trade war is going to ensue if the UK decides to change their relationship to be more like Norway, Iceland or Switzerland?
The notion that the pissed off Europeans would do anything is preposterous.
Surely some kind of censure would have to be applied to dissuade any other countries from leaving? Like the euro, if Greece had left, the immediate question would have been “who’s next?”.
Why’s he obsessed with Ulster Protestants these days? Has he had a row with his wife?
Ireland’s elite will follow their instructions to the letter.
For the Irish Government to stand up for the people who elected and its citizens is a utterly ridiculous proposition .
Brexit ?
The Brits will remain and applaude democracy at work.
Seeing as we are scheduled for NATO Membership we shall do nothing to upset anyone.
I am more interested in Russian plans for Lativa,Macedonia & Lithuania next summer.
RR6
Barry
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the brits wont leave, cameron used his nuclear button at the weekend by threatening the pensioners, they will vote and they will vote to keep their pensions.
Donald Tusk (article linked below) says it will take 7 years for the UK to exit, so I would understand from that that there will plenty of time for people to be coaxed to re-vote the “right´´ way if the vote goes the “wrong´´ way, as it currently looks like it will, on the 26th of June next. Aren´t we all familiar with the anti-democratic ways of the EU? We had this here twice (Nice and Lisbon). There rejection of the EU constitution by the voters of Holland and France and it was maneuvered into legislative existence despite of the… Read more »
1) Scotland is not going to leave the UK over Brexit. The SNP are going around waving EU flags like as if they know everything. The SNP have a habit of talking themselves up. The reality of SNP rule is based on dishonesty. The SNP are borrowing hand over fist in an effort to deliver a feel good effect for voting for the SNP. This is exactly the sort of behaviour that came from the economics text book of Bertie Ahern. In effect, it is what the SNP are doing (borrowing recklessly) that will determine Scotalnd’s future, not the dishonest… Read more »
{ Our government can’t for the second time in five years behave like the model prisoner of the EU, accepting EU nastiness over common-sense diplomacy. We are not Poland, Italy or Greece; we need Britain. } On the issue of Greece, Noonan made an ass of himself, and a fool of the Irish taxpayers. On the issue of Cyprus, Kenny talked about the army and the ATMs (even though it was all lies) so as to make us feel grateful. On the issue of Iceland, Coveney went out of his way to rebuke Iceland, and serve the nEU empire. This… Read more »
Somebody mentioned 1984, and Orwell.
Personally, I think that Alduous Huxley was more on the mark.
But there is a super state mechanism being built to deliver for the well connected. Historically, such developments have always ended in massive scale wars.
McCawber – Be financially prudent.
Bail in – Screw the financially prudent.
Banks – Free vaseline for all customers.
One of the consequences of bail in might be to encourage people to spend their savings.
This would give Offialdom the much sought after demand they desire.
However banks require savings to provide in part capital for their lending as I understand bankery.
So another question.
What happens if people spend a lot of their savings in order to avoid the consequences of bail in.
BTW would current account balances or credit card balances be subject to bail in.
http://lofi.phys.org/news/2016-06-belgian-hospitals-robot-receptionists.html
Top priority – A robotic politician
Yesterday David McWilliams shamefully wrote in The Sunday Business Post: ”Ireland’s overwhelming interest is in open borders with a post-Brexit Britain.” Note: a POST-Brexit Britain! I totally disagree. I believe we should do exactly the opposite. If the UK is foolish enough to vote to leave the EU we the Irish should immediately seal the border between the EU and that part of the UK known as Northern Ireland. That border will become a full international border, as real as the border between Tijuana and San Diego, within sight of which I lived for 38 years. BTW there is no… Read more »
https://books.google.ca/books?id=V7trAwAAQBAJ&pg=PT69&lpg=PT69&dq=text+–in+the+beginning+was+the+word&source=bl&ots=Tabdf-VcI6&sig=x6fr7wTEhiUENrcmRHrJYceHyKE&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiz4s2TzqXNAhUMyoMKHTm9CRcQ6AEINjAI#v=onepage&q=text%20–in%20the%20beginning%20was%20the%20word&f=false
Telling the truth is now dangerous. Maybe it always was.
http://www.astronomytrek.com/who-discovered-the-earth-moves-around-the-sun/
It seems like a pretty unsatisfying choice, either ruled by the United Kingdom or by the German Union. But it is not our ties with England that are too deep for us to be marching to a German drum. It is our national sovereignty and Ireland’s presence on the world’s stage as a mother country in her own right which prevents us from assuming the mantle of a province within the longstanding unification project known as ‘Mittle Europa’. Maggie’s Bruges speech is worth reading if only to disabuse ourselves as to its status and perhaps gain insight into the long… Read more »
What should the Irish State do after the U.K. depart the E.U. ? The Irish Government should do as Mary Harney [ former Leader of Progressive Democrats Party ( PD / PDs ), & former Tanaiste ] would do. Now, please do not interpret this as “Irish State to do as Mary Harney would customarily instruct the Irish State to do”. No / Nay / Ni h’ea / Non … Nein ! Rather, the Irish State should do as Mary Harney would do in her private life [ as best suits Mary ; As best suits “Mary who never worked… Read more »
European satanic rituals reported!!!!!
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm#inbox/1554c62da6c34338
https://www.facebook.com/beingalibertarian/photos/a.256552551217454.1073741829.246976735508369/510029039203136/?type=3&theater
Are you left or right or just right on.
19% EDGE TO LEAVING THE EUROCORUPTION
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-12/leave-takes-shocking-19-point-lead-brexit-poll-if-it-happens-gold-will-be-worlds-str
Eurocorruption
“assume the position” Indeed: http://m.independent.ie/irish-news/european-developers-sought-for-council-housing-projects-34781363.html Are there no Irish builders or developers who can do this David in a country with still a high “official” unemployment rate of close to 10%? Notice how no companies from the UK (or Germany, Scandinavia or France) are being courted and we know why don’t we because it will be Pavel, Marco, Carlos and Igors who will be asked to ASSUME THE POSITION when being hired in their home countries for building Irish Houses in Ireland for all the eastern europeans who live here won’t they David? I wonder if the Brits vote themselves… Read more »
For Grzegorz Ref. 25May2016 Apologies in advance if this partial response to ur open-request for feedback is too late. Some of ur own text is included below ; Although, there is occasional redacting by me. “Examples of successful lobbying” As in relatively recent (from the last 50 years) examples of when the Irish diaspora combined with/or independently of the Irish diplomacy did something positive to the image of Ireland abroad, by Preface ; Grzegorz, given the significant role that they have played in ur theme of ‘how external actors associated with Ireland have “with” or “without” — & I recommend… Read more »
“Thus, Legal Tender would be “good” Money driving out “bad” Money “;
OR bad money driving out good????
Bond values at 500 year highs bought by central banks as QE mean interest rates at 500 year lows. Double bubble, I smell trouble. Stock markets at high valuations buoyed by central bank buying and PPT support. Precious metals at low valuations force down by bare naked short selling by Gov and NGO in the face of unprecedented physical demand. Double bubble, I small trouble. Personal debt, corporate debt, municipal debt, state debt, national debt at all time highs. Unregulated derivatives amounting to a record over a QUADRILLION dollars (only as strong as the weakest counterparty) All the above at… Read more »
It’s England’s Brexit
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/anthony-barnett/it-s-england-s-brexit
“As a 21-year-old student, I stood in the Great Hall, Bruges, in September of 1988. ”
Youngster…… just saying……..
“And to ensure that the responsibility for the chaos is not blamed on the bankers who run the central banking system behind the scenes, the central banking system itself is beginning to be blamed.”
“First the central banks – and the larger monetary system – will be blamed. Then the monetary system will be reconfigured.”
“China is collapsing. The European Union is half-bankrupt. The US is in a kind of depression.”
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/unprecedented-mainstream-media-criticism-of-central-banking-bodes-ill-for-the-larger-economy/
Damning indictment of Keynesian economic policy. A policy , I might add, endorsed by our host, much to the detriment of all. https://mises.org/blog/keynesian-blessing-americans-are-broke “But here we are. After decades of what essentially could be called a new “Industrial Revolution” with the advent of computers and the internet, the US government has managed through its monetary authorities and through its other policies to decimate savings and leave millions of Americans financially vulnerable. It has been no accident. People are able to resist force only for so long before giving in, and given that the Keynesian war on savings has continued unfettered… Read more »
War-mongering being upped by that lovely little “Democracy” in the Middle East ;
==> They want WW3 against Iran + Russia + China through their new puppet U.S.A. Prezzie.
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/06/15/israel-to-receive-largest-military-aid-package-in-us-history/
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160615/1041404219/israel-water-shortage-westbank-ramadan.html
Less demand for EURO as reserve currencies as doubts rise about its longevity.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/13/why-the-euro-is-a-long-way-from-challenging-the-dollars-dominanc/
@ Grzegorz, Further to ur mention of Jack Parsons [ Rocket Scientist & Practising Satanist ], above, please find the following 3 links for ur interest ; The 1st link is from that very useful truth-seeking & truth-telling blog with Readers’ Comments Section ; aanirfan.blogspot.com Formerly ; angirfan.blogspot.com By the way, I noticed that they were very suspicious contextually of Clement Freud [ Deceased ; Brit. M.P. ; BBC Personality ; Brother of Lucien Freud ( Close friend of Kray Twins ) ; Grandson of Dr. Sigmound Freud [ Father of Psycho-Analysis ] ; 1st Cousin once removed of Edward… Read more »
Typo ;
Garda-Peelers = Garda-Landlords
I have decided to just give the following link in addition to the above one ;
http://www.theguardian.com/media/pictures/0,7793,457666,00.html