So now that the near-hysterical reaction to Brexit from most of “serious” Ireland is easing up, let us see what is likely to happen next. On one prominent weekend radio show, the mainstream view, fuelled by Friday’s apocalyptic utterances from the deeply Remain side of the Irish media/political/business establishment, tottered from sneering at the electorate in Britain to predicting Armageddon.
Most of us probably hoped for a Remain victory, but were sensible enough to entertain a Leave vote.
Those of us who have a responsibility to comment might have gone out to England to feel the pulse of our neighbour and – as a result of such fieldwork – might have predicted Brexit.
I’ve spent the past two days in England. I have had long meetings with some very cosmopolitan and deeply Remain British journalists and opinion-makers. I stayed in London with a friend, a Scottish businessman, who runs a large consultancy company, who voted Leave. His Irish wife voted Remain.
As we watched the implosion of the English football team, we also spoke to another Leaver – a committed west Londoner, a Labour Party member, a socialist and a dyed-in-the-wool, hyper-tolerant liberal who voted for Brexit.
Fifty-five miles away, in Oxford, which voted 70pc to remain – an outlier in middle England – I’ve just met with an academic friend who is traumatised. Meanwhile, an incredibly reasonable fund manager, whose livelihood will be dramatically affected if Brexit is as bad for business as some suggest, told me that he had voted Leave. When pressed – and this is a man with deep, almost Quaker convictions about society – he simply responded that democracy is important. In his view, the EU is deeply undemocratic.
These are all real British people.
The only possible media caricature was the cabbie who took me to Paddington this morning. But even she was measured. She voted to Leave because of immigration. But her arguments centered on resources, not race.
She maintained that immigrants are putting huge pressure on London’s public hospitals, where her 80-year old mother goes, and the state schools that her kids attend.
Her view was that if you want more immigrants, you can’t have austerity squeezing cash to these state institutions, which are under strain. This seemed like a reasonable argument to me.
Right now, I am writing in deepest, rural Oxfordshire at a gastro pub called The Mole Inn. The clientele are older, genteel and wealthy.
The car park is full of clean German cars and I’d suggest most, given the demographic, voted to Leave. The chat is about the capitulation of the football team, the implosion of the Labour frontbench and whether Boris will make it as PM.
This is England. This is a small snapshot of the electorate that shook the world and it doesn’t appear rabid, racist or reactionary.
On the contrary, it appears to be an electorate that was asked a question and answered. We can argue about whether it should ever have been asked the question or whether one crowd lied and the other over-egged the dangers, but this is politics, real politics.
It is plebiscite politics.
With the exception of the journalists who have tended towards heightened emotion and despite the urgency of the topics, the prevailing attitude is that things will calm down and life will go on. Granted, there is some worry about what will happen to Scotland.
The selling of shares and sterling may have unnerved some, but most see the financial casino as remote and are used to trading-floor tantrums. Many also believe that British assets are now far too cheap and hope their pension funds have the cash to buy at these levels.
Politically, there is a certainty that there will be a general election and there is lots of talk, even on the Leave side, about some compromise, short of immediate withdrawal.
Is there an element of ‘buyer’s remorse’ on the part of some Leavers? I’d say there is – but it’s more amongst the middle ground – those who cast a protest vote and didn’t expect Leave to win. But it is hard to see how this referendum can be undone.
Over the past 48 hours, there’s a sense that after all the promises and claims from the Brexit side, the UK will probably get the same deal as Norway or Switzerland. This would be a free-trade deal with some local control over immigrant numbers. The UK would have to pay for access to the EU markets, yet would have no place at the top table to influence the EU.
Most commentators, establishment politicians and EU enthusiasts will jeer at this outcome, pointing out that the Norwegian option is financially a worse deal for Britain – and they are right.
But what these people fail to appreciate or even ask, is why Norway or Switzerland, two eminently sensible nations, do not just join the EU and get a better deal?
The reason is simple. Lots of people value sovereignty, nationalism and independence. Somewhere deep in the national psyche, the Norwegians and the Swiss (and the Icelanders, who rejected the EU last year) value their sovereignty, the right to make their own laws and run their own affairs. And they are prepared to pay for this luxury. They understand that globalisation is eroding the latitude that countries have to manoeuvre, but they prefer the feeling of independence.
I use the word “feeling” advisedly – because independence is a feeling. It is a feeling of community, shared experiences and values that bond a people together and it is a feeling of home, security and autonomy. These are powerful emotions, which are obviously more compelling for people than pounds, shillings and pence.
At the end of the day, things will calm down and Britain may only get Norwegian status, but it will be enough for most Leavers. Germany has no interest in blocking the UK from being a semi-detached, island society, trading with Germany. We now know Germany makes the rules and the big calls.
The more extreme people, the ideologues in the EU Commission/nomenklatura on the one hand and the little Englanders in Ukip on the other, won’t want this – but this is what they will get.
So those extremists calling for accelerated moves to activate Article 50 – on both sides – will be drowned in the soothing balm of common sense. The markets will readjust to this reality and the Scots are likely to be bought off, again.
In short, Brexit is not a 21st-century version of Sarajevo 1914 or Poland 1939 or even Berlin 1989. It is a deeply British coup against the EU, which has served the purpose of scaring the bejaysus out of the entrenched establishment. It is the symptom, not the cause and is the consequence of fundamental problems like inequality, disenfranchisement and a seething popular resentment with the status quo. It’s a yellow card, not a red.
It will only become a monumental historical event if, like the Bourbons, the EU – and by extension the Irish elite – choose to ignore this warning. They can’t be that remote, can they?
Has the first rat deserted?
Some very disturbing stories re Claude Juncker emerging…
So New Zealand has offered the uk its team of skilled trade deal negotiators.
Hello sweet deal for nz in return, goodbye to Irish lamb production?
Great article David. Thank you
“Lots of people value sovereignty, nationalism and independence.”
Otherwise known as Patriots, lovers of community, family and friends, and culture.
Europe is statist, autocratic, undemocratic, and anti cultural as it wants homogeneity.
Patriotism is life
Statism is death.
The Brits chose life over death. good for them.
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Oportunity Knocks. The Brexit Referendum is probably a good snap shot of how most of the EUs population perceive the EU. Internally not all are members of the Euro. In addition, Norway and Switzerland position in remaining outside the EU should provide further insights into the EU. Trust or lack of trust is the issue. Countries like Britain are being proved right, their is a serious democratic deficit in the EU. Could you imagine how much bigger the shock to the financial system there would have been had Britain been part of the Euro Zone. So what is to do.… Read more »
Hi, A super flawless article. Hopefully your next one will let us know your thoughts on how Ireland will respond to how we now are the first point of call for all the hopefuls coming here from yonder in the EU etc? Do we go for a skills based immigration policy to take pressure of our social services? Do we put checks at our ports to prevent the hoard from a backdoor entry to the mainland UK through the North so that we can keep our own border open? Do we bring back a devalued punt to save Irish exporting?… Read more »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvLwNizDA2M
Excellent article. The event Brexit, is now being surpassed, for relevance, by the reaction of those who regard the event as unacceptable. This is highly insightful. There is a lot of manufactured outrage in existence. In fact there is a lot of competition in seeing who can be the most outraged. So far the London Independent newspaper seems to be leading the way in the absurdity stakes. The one aspect that has been deliberately ignored by the outrage-atariat, is the performance of the morons in charge in Brussels. There is presumably a reason for that – it would cause more… Read more »
Of all the reactions from the Irish political insiders, perhaps the reaction of maFFia don, Michael Martin, was the most revealing. Martin declared that Cameron should never have consulted the people. Then as Sturgeon decided to go on a campaign of absurdity, Martin (who holds power over the current government), declared that the Irish government should back Sturgeon (regardless of the consequences of Ireland’s relationship with Westminister). The man is not merely arrogant. And he is not merely an anti-democrat. In fact, he more dangerous than merely being a servant of the EU power centre. He will engage in antics… Read more »
Finaly Brits will have a good sip of what real migration means. Till now people from EU Member States have been perceived as such. Now, that British police is possibly called to leave the spot in Calais by the French Government, all African migrants will pass the English Channel with any means
The article paints the UK as a hero, performing a “deeply British coup” against the EU-villain.
I think, of all people, Eamonn Dunphy got it right when he said we have a new hero, Iceland, after “that match”. Did anyone notice that he added “and they burned the bond-holders” before RTE quickly cut him off to stop him from committing further blasphemy!
Hi David, It’s impossible to relate to all aspects of Brexit that you have touched on in your article, which by the way was in my opinion the most balanced voice in the wilderness of hysteria prevailing in both camps (I am talking about Irish commentators + Dutchman Bono). There is one point raised in your article where you (or UKiP – whereby I do not equate you with UKiP) are not telling the whole story – strain on NHS caused by the EU immigrants. But before I go into that and tell what you what you do not know… Read more »
Mr Kevin Doyle writes in his botched analysis: http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/no-more-inferiority-complex-ireland-must-forge-new-place-in-europe-34835833.html that ‘We must find new allies like Belgium, Sweden and Denmark, who will help us fight the big battles on corporation tax’. Such statement strikes me as truly bizzare – a quick look at the list of countries by corporate tax rate informs us that the said three countries all have high corporation tax rates. I am particularly puzzled by inclusion of Belgium on his list, a country with 33% corporation tax, with Lenin and Che Guevara issued on its 1999 stamps, and with the government spending of 55.6% GDP .… Read more »
The taxi driver said she was concerned about immigration because of resources not race. She would say this, wouldn’t she? And if so, why would she feel she had to say so? Is this shared ‘feeling’ of nationality unrelated to the prospect on demographic trends of becoming a minority in your own country in a not all that distant future? Is the concentration on eastern European immigrants a proxy for Africans and Asians because you can’t put it like that? If concerns about racism, albeit well intentioned and firmly based on history, reason and morality, are dealt with by making… Read more »
The disparagement of the democratic process is not limited to Europe but is amply demonstrated in the US too. People may only express a preference, as long as it follows the script of the elites, toward political and economic serfdom.
http://www.gopusa.com/?p=11863?omhide=true
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/draghi-lets-create-an-aggressive-globalized-central-banking-monopoly-to-destroy-the-world/
“Draghi:” Let’s Create An Aggressive, Globalized Central Banking Monopoly to Destroy the World”
“Conclusion: Economies are already unbalanced from decades of central banking manipulation. The next swing could be the most violent of all. It could literally destroy economies around the world. Of course, by then Draghi may have left his post. It will be someone else’s problem: yours and ours.”
Basically, to stabilize the world, we need to fire the central banking cartel.
“In fact, the US ought to get rid of monopoly fiat money, which creates vast businesses cycles that benefit the very largest corporations, and “intellectual property rights” that enhance the competitive stature of only a very few corporations. The explosion of prosperity and freedom would be noticeable. Conclusion: Trump is on the right track when it comes to corporatism. If he manages to reduce corporate influence over the GOP, that would be a valuable achievement. Posted in STAFF NEWS & ANALYSIS” http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/large-corporations-aid-the-expansion-of-authoritarian-government/ Not only do we need rid of the banking cabal but also the trade pacts that elevate corporations… Read more »
Comical Juncker.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/06/23/20160630_farage.jpg
Juncker is trying to prevent a media photographer taking a picture of Farage. Juncker is a dithering fool.
This is what the (corrupt) EPP put in charge of the EU Commission.
Hi Everyone,
Market for top 100 companies in the UK bottomed at 6004 on Monday. Price today; 6563.
Al Pacino says it so well 6 seconds;
https://youtu.be/_q_wgw8CsQA
Hi,
Brexit all came down to one thing in my view;
The british KNOW the price of democracy.
This is how it was won in ww2 omly scenes from movies but not for the faint of heart;
https://youtu.be/h5p5j_K0CsY?t=112
This is how it was won in the trenches;
https://youtu.be/4zBQGY_p4QM?t=58
Is Deutchebank the new Lehman Bros
http://www.wsj.com/articles/deutsche-bank-shares-tumbled-to-a-30-year-low-after-fed-imf-rebuke-1467278856
http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/gold-price-forecast-golds-final-warning-of-impending-monetary-collapse?post=98909
Specifically as to the question by Deco “Let’s ask the Irish workers in Australia, who went to the other side of the world to get away from the EU. Do they miss the dictates? I don’t’ know whether this was an ironical comment or not. But if it’s not then I am happy to report the short answer. Things are very much worse in Australia with respect to State/Corporate dominance. Australia is the epitome of a business managed democracy, and for a superb resource explaining all that this entails sees the link below, from the work of Prof Sharon Beder:… Read more »
Posted at Lemetropolecafe Ireland: Irish and UK leaders will work together for best Brexit outcome: EurActiv reported that Irish Prime Minister Kenny, who yesterday sought to dispel concerns that Brexit would disrupt the peace process between Northern Ireland and the Republic, and said the UK would fight to keep free movement between the two countries. “We’ve had the common travel area since 1922 and the EU itself is involved in the peace process,” Kenny said. He also called relations with the UK “stronger than ever before” and said if the UK’s access to the EU single market is cut off,… Read more »
Good morning everyone. We are now 100 years and approx 3hrs since the start of the battle of the Somme and of course the Irish regiments took some of the worst casualties. On the first day history records the British Army took its worst ever casualty rate 60000 killed and wounded about 20000 killed. What is not well known is that by this time in the morning 100 years ago most of the slaughter had already taken place. I’d like to share some poetry to remember all those Irish young fellas shamefully written out of Irish history. INNOCENCE LOST. The… Read more »
The general standard of posts to articles on most Irish “newspaper” & “other media” websites is known to be woeful. The Brits & Yanks are generally vastly superior to us. As a result the participants of their economic-political-socio-cultural websites would be well acquainted with the following juicy stuff about good aul Mr. Junkers Search Terms entered into Google.com . . Junkers AND Operation Gladio . . https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=cr&ei=ymp2V-yaBMHcvgSDs6WACA&fg=1#q=Junkers+AND+Operation+Gladio . . . How come RTE does not tell us about Junkers & his connection with Operation Gladio ? Now u know why Minister for Finance Michael Noonan was succumbed to the grave… Read more »
For Deco, U asked recently for the names of the Bondholders. I replied that Guido Fawkes Web Blog published them as scoop a while back ; 15 Oct 2016 Knowing that we the people are paying them, why should we not exactly whom every one of them really are ? I trust that the Head Honcho of the Garda-Landlords does ; After all, he / she surely has not closed the case on that veteran E.U. / E.C.B. Bureaucrat Jean Claude Trichet threatening with personal phone call to Min. for Finance Mr. Michael Noonan that E.U. / E.C.B. [ Rothshcilds… Read more »
“Conclusion: Centralization on so many fronts is bound to create further instability of the sort that Brexit is already being blamed for. In fact, Brexit will also be blamed for the inevitable, destructive consequences of further amalgamation and coordination. These consequences are inevitable because of the moves Brussels is making.”
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/brexit-is-justifying-aggressive-eu-banking-and-political-centralization/
The UK’s lucky escape from the EU superstate and the reduction of nation states to vassals.
Kiss Your Domestic Bias Goodbye, Central Bankers of the World … In a globalized world, managing domestic economic conditions requires having one eye focused abroad. For evidence, look no farther than the global monetary policy fallout from Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union. – Bloomberg
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/central-bankers-use-brexit-to-argue-for-increasing-financial-centralization/
““Is there contagion? What does Ireland do? What does Scotland do? What do other EU countries do?” Kaplan said. “It will take a significant amount of time to see how all that unfolds.”
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-the-lehman-of-europe-is-now-the-world-s-most-systematically-dangerous-bank-.aspx?article=8644047076H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Andy+Hoffman
Politicians who make promises they later abandon are disgraceful and should not be allowed to run for office.–Trump
http://www.gopusa.com/?p=11956?omhide=true
Brexit caused a move but G and s are responding to fundamental financial and monetary problems. Mining shares are up 80-120% since January. Not reported in the MSM it is a stealth resumption of the PM bull market.
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-gold-silver-best-performing-assets-in-h1-2016–up-26-and-38-.aspx?article=8647913336H11690&redirect=false&contributor=Mark+O%27Byrne
Hillary lies, get used to it.
The Fed loans cheap cash to selected banks to allow insider buying of shares to boost the stock price so executives earn millions in bonuses. Save the banks at all costs and the economy is toast.
http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-7-1-16-greg-hunter/
There is no such thing as a free market. They are all rigged
http://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/most-americans-believe-the-economy-is-rigged-theyre-right/
“The Federal Reserve is prepared to provide dollar liquidity through its existing swap lines with central banks, as necessary, to address pressures in global funding markets, which could have adverse implications for the US economy.”
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/british-independence-day/8244
“”When it comes to trade agreements such as NAFTA, GATT, and TPP, these are often labeled as free-trade agreements. But you don’t need hundreds or thousands of pages of regulations to have free trade. You simply need the government on both sides to step out of the way.
These trade agreements are not free trade. They are managed trade. They could be viewed favorably if they keep others from erecting tariffs, but why do you need hundreds of pages just to do that?””
It is impossible to understand Economics or History without studying the writings & speeches etc. of Eustace Mullins.
Here is what I consider to be the most perceptive comment to have been uttered in the last 1,950 years ;
.
.
.
“They are doing terrible things to u because they hate u.
And, they hate u because they are doing terrible things to u.”
Ref. Mr. Mullins, Eustace
Grzegorz, Further to ur Chinese-Russian-German alliance forecast ; I can only envisage it as ; Chinese-Russian-EU [ with Germany subsumed like all the other then “definitely former European nations” ] alliance. The E.U. is essentially a FREEMASON Project on behalf of the ROTHSCHILDS. E.U. serves 2 primitive & ancient motivations for the Roths : 1. destruction of the tribe of Japheth through genocide, non-reproduction, & miscegnation with Shem & Ham ; Although, the indigenous peoples of Ireland — the Hibero ; Hence, Hibernia — are originally of the tribe of Shem ; Fancy that ! Roths surely know that for… Read more »
Something that has been bugging me for a good while.
Jeremy Corbyn.
Where’s he at.
A professed pro EUite but he went missing.
Very very left wing.
His body language is very self aware and self possessed – what you see is not what you get.
Corbyn doesn’t fit any kind of mid stream Labour Party.
The Labour party has always had a whiff of communism.
Makes you wonder.
If democracy is failing or under pressure what will replace.?
I wish to hell Project Utopia would get a move on – the other alternatives don’t look to appealing.
I am running out of people to whom I can respond on this site. Reflecting on that I have been forced to think about our host, David himself. Is he just a very tolerant host as Adam insists or is he in some way responsible for the more and more Trumpesque drift on this site? The parallels with Boris Johnston are more compelling. We know that Johnston receives £275,000 per year from the Daily Telegraph for his newspaper column. We don’t know how much David receives from the Irish Independent or from the Sunday Business Post (that remains his private… Read more »
Gentlemen, when the bell goes, come out fighting, but stick to the rules. No punching the back of the head or below the belt or kidney punching. If a man goes down you go to a neutral corner. Lets have a clean fight, now, back to your corners.
Gentlemen give up the personal references to IQ and ability. As Adam says, play the ball not the man.
Argue all you like: Agree or disagree, eliminate personal disparagement. We are our own referees.
Grzegorz Kolodziej: As you suggested I went back over the coverage of Minsk II in February 2015 but could find no trace of French president François Hollande and German chancellor Angela Merkel having gone to Minsk ‘’to conduct the talks with Russia … IN THE NAME OF ALL EU GOVERNMENTS without consulting them’’ as you allege. Such inaccurate statements only hurt the credibility of this site and give the impression that it is just another home for wild conspiracy theorists. I would prefer if that were not the case. My own view of Minsk II is that it was a… Read more »
Does anyone here really understand how Europe actually functions as a supposed democratic institution or collection of institutions? I doubt it. And does that lack of involvement of the people make any difference to its operation? I suspect that this lack of ‘understandability’ is a deliberate ploy. People when confronted with a mass of unintelligible bureaucratic layers and vast formations of interconnected institutions just switch off. Not because they are too ignorant to understand it all, but even if that were true, and people had no ability to understand the complex system, their dis-connection is caused by their instinctually recognition… Read more »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/27/the-european-union-always-was-a-cia-project-as-brexiteers-discov/
Left Right Democrat Republican Labour Conservative Remain Exit … whatever ?
Who cares !
http://www.thejc.com/comment-and-debate/columnists/154099/why-brexit-will-be-best-us
I am beginning to think that all my posts imploring people to get physically Gold & Silver are a waste of time. Nobody on the blog shows conversion from indifference or difference towards Gold & Silver as real money. And, neither is any other enthusiast for G & S getting traction here. Alas … But, I am getting support in my exposing of corruption in the Irish State ; And, who better to know about corruption in the Irish State but a victim local to the shore himself ? People know instinctively that we must 1st fix ourselves before we… Read more »
https://ellenbrown.com/2016/07/01/brexit-and-the-derivatives-time-bomb/
Ellen Brown suggests that governments reclaim sovereignty by having their own currency. Produce currency directly from treasury at no cost (It is not a loan). Use the government free money to pay off the bonds held by the central banks and to pay off the national debt.
That was my own suggestion months , years ago on this blog, to be met with a deafening silence. Few seem to have a clue how the money system works except Cooldude.
So think about it and let’s hear from you.
There goes the neighbourhood. Osborne to lower corp tax rate to 15%
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/post-brexit-osborne-promises-cut-corporate-tax-less-15-1568691
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