The only constant in life is change. Once we appreciate this, we should embrace change and profit from it. The aim for all of us is to be resilient in the face of change, and sufficiently resourceful not only to withstand change, but to thrive on it.
Thriving on change is the difference between living and existing. Thriving on change is what makes people strong, impervious to other people’s opinions and, ultimately, thriving on change is the only way to live in this tempestuous world. Look at the best companies, the best teams, the most creative people – the one thing they can all do when faced with an altering landscape is tear up Plan A and invent a Plan B.
This agility, this lightness of touch, this ability to embrace risk, knowing the pros and cons, is what it is all about. Sometimes you are rewarded, sometimes not, but if you don’t give it a go, you will be passed.
Now, risk is not for everyone, which is why we have an insurance industry. Insurance minimises risk and seeks to shield people from the vagaries of the real world.
In the same way, a permanent job does this. Lots of people want the security of a permanent job. That’s their call. But there are very few companies these days that can truly offer their employees a permanent position. As the great world spins, these jobs will become few and far between. The only fundamental aspect that guarantees an element of permanence is to involve yourself in a job that you love and if you love it, you will probably be good at it.
In a competitive world, being good is the only thing that ensures permanence, unless, of course, you rig the market by rules and regulations designed to minimise competition and maximise the amount of money you can gouge out of the market that you have rigged.
The same goes for countries. So imperialist countries in the past rigged the market and gouged the market.
This is why the great linen industry of India failed to compete with British linen in the Raj. It wasn’t that the Indians weren’t good at producing textiles, they were just prevented by a rigged imperialist system that rewarded English producers and penalised Indian ones.
We see this all the time. But change can’t be prevented — it can only be retarded, at most.
So when a country is faced by change, what does it do?
The country that stands still, rests on its laurels and shrinks from the changes around it, is the country that will lose. On the other hand, the country that accepts change will at least be giving itself a chance.
This brings me to Brexit. The headlines, fed to journalists by civil servants who have an interest in the status quo and don’t like change – if they did, they wouldn’t be civil servants — talk about the “nightmare” of Brexit. Since Sunday, when the British decided that they were going for the “hard Brexit”, we in Ireland have been on the receiving end of definitive lists citing all the terrible things that lie ahead for us because our closest neighbour is leaving the club.
But who knows what is going to happen? There are as many reasons to be optimistic as pessimistic.
Forget the politics for a minute.
Most of the stuff that is written as economics is simply biased political opinion dressed up as analysis.
A hard Brexit means that there will be a WTO tariff on British manufacturing goods of around 2pc-3pc. This will drive up the cost of exports in Ireland by this amount. We import 34pc of all our imports from the UK. In June, our total import bill was €6bn. So about €2.2bn came from the UK. So a 3pc tariff on this stuff will be about €70m to the Exchequer. Will 3pc divert our essential imports? I doubt it.
Now, look at what happened to imports in July. Imports fell by 11pc from June to July. Why do you think that happened? Could it be because of the dramatic fall in Sterling after the Brexit vote? Of course it was. So the dramatic fall in Sterling has hugely reduced the import bill in Ireland — and this is regarded as a “nightmare“? By who exactly? The fall in Sterling is actually making us richer, not poorer, but it is being spun as a disaster.
This isn’t permanent, it’s change and it has good and bad elements.
Think also now about the uncertainty the UK faces for the next few years, particularly with respect to direct foreign investment.
Might companies be worried that because the UK is throwing up barriers to highly skilled immigrants, the productivity of their UK investment will fall? This was the gist of what the head of Microsoft said when visiting Dublin yesterday. The implication is that it’s not the tariffs that will scare away investment but the fact that investors have to depend on the lumpen English proletariat for their workforce.
If this is the case, why should this be a disaster for Ireland, a country that is open to European immigrants?
Wouldn’t it be a significant positive for us if investment is diverted from the UK? Where is it likely to be diverted to: Romania, Italy, Spain?
It is not illogical to suggest that Ireland, as the only English-speaking country in the EU, will be ideally placed to profit from any investment disruptions that Brexit might spark.
The key for Ireland is to be as open to trade, investment and migration as possible because, with the British tied up in knots, we have a great chance to stake a legitimate claim as Europe’s only pro-business trading nation.
Clearly there are issues with the Border. However, the stakeholders in this — ourselves, Stormont and Westminster — all want the Border to stay open for trade and travel.
So the only entity that might be intent on stopping this is the EU. Therefore, we should tell it where to go.
There needs to be a serious negotiation for a derogation on any hard border between us and the UK; as I said, this is only being suggested by Brussels or its paid-up mouthpieces in the Irish establishment. We have never had a border in terms of travel between both countries, so why start now? If we don’t want to police it and the UK doesn’t want to police it, would we have Finnish and Spanish police and customs on either side of the border? I doubt it!
There is as much chance that, managed properly, Brexit will be good for Ireland. It is change, and change is constant. Change can bring out the best in people, companies and countries — it’s simply up to us to tap into that potential.
“The fall in Sterling is actually making us richer, not poorer, but it is being spun as a disaster.” First of all no it hasn’t. It has reduced our cost. Our wealth generation capacity is in our own hands. “The key for Ireland is to be as open to trade, investment and ………………….MIGRATION” Says it all really David. Tell you what I am open to; emigration like everyone else. Like I said I figured out at 42 no one gives a shit. Guess what? did you forget that the industrial revolution started in England and there was no trouble with… Read more »
“Most of the stuff that is written as economics is simply biased political opinion dressed up as analysis.”
This statement should be appended to all economics articles and publications.
Who knows what will happen? There’s a general panic on the pound now. If Brexit is any kind of a success, the pound will be back up. Also, no one in the uk sees Ireland as foreign, and they won’t be shutting Ireland out. Back in the 2010 election, there was an incident where a “bigoted woman” complained to Gordon brown about immigrants – her name was Fahy. We don’t see ourselves as foreigners either.
‘The only constant in life is change.’ Heraclitus. Panta rhei. But more relevantly,JFK & Joseph ‘Radical Joe’ Chamberlain. I’m sure Brexit Architect Theresa May had both of them in mind in Birmingham this week as she laid out the template for a Hard Brexit which will have profound effects on the island of Ireland… Apparently, it’s JFK who’s responsible for the misappropriation of the Chinese hexagram for Change & claiming the word “crisis” is composed of two characters, one representing danger and the other, opportunity. But that doesn’t matter, JFK was echoing Heraclitus, Marcus Aurelius & many other profound thinkers:… Read more »
‘Think also now about the uncertainty the UK faces for the next few years, particularly with respect to direct foreign investment. Might companies be worried that because the UK is throwing up barriers to highly skilled immigrants, the productivity of their UK investment will fall? This was the gist of what the head of Microsoft said when visiting Dublin yesterday. The implication is that it’s not the tariffs that will scare away investment but the fact that investors have to depend on the lumpen English proletariat for their workforce. If this is the case, why should this be… Read more »
I agree with David that Brexit will benefit Ireland in the long run, but not in the way he believes. The fall in our British import bill by 11% from June to July is temporary, due to British suppliers using up their inventory of goods purchased outside Britain before the devaluation of the Pound. When our British suppliers of these foreign goods start to replenish their inventory they will have to pay more and will pass that additional cost on to their Irish customers. At that stage the Irish importers will start switching to direct purchases from the (non-British) countries… Read more »
Here’s a really funny article in response to Brexit and the bed-wetter rush to get an Irish EU passport by UK Remoaners….where will they all live? In those Ghost Estates?….Wonder how many Irish folk would swap for a British passport? LOL!
“Because if you fancy moving to the U.K., we could trade passports.”
You could open up futures markets in passports, you could have derivatives.
DAVID CARD, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, U.C. BERKELEY
WHY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO TRADE PASSPORTS
By James Watkins
http://capx.co/external/trading-passports-a-free-market-for-migration/
“”Look at the best companies, the best teams, the most creative people – the one thing they can all do when faced with an altering landscape is tear up Plan A and invent a Plan B.”” An informative and instructive book, “Think and Grow Rich”, by Napoleon Hill, also available on cassette, makes this point amongst many others. The only common factor for successful business entrepreneurs is the ability to make decisions. The CEO’s examined came from all walks of life, nationalities, and educational backgrounds. The question was asked, “Why are these people so good at making the right decision… Read more »
Most people don’t like change.
Most people don’t have a choice.
Change is imposed on them.
The world needs leaders to impose change.
Therein lies the problem – Who are the leaders, where are they leading us and why?
Do they they know where they are leading us to or is it all a bit fuzzy driven by the good old maxim “what’s in it for me”
Too much Guinness is good for you.
It drops the inhibitions and allows you to see the world as it is.
The first thing you should not do, tho’, is look in the mirror.
What Guinness has made me realise is the world has changed hugely over the last 20 years and that the pace of change is increasing.
What this means is that the Very Very few who have the ability to embrace that rate of change are potentially very dangerous people.
To be continued – maybe.
[ Might companies be worried that because the UK is throwing up barriers to highly skilled immigrants, the productivity of their UK investment will fall? This was the gist of what the head of Microsoft said when visiting Dublin yesterday. The implication is that it’s not the tariffs that will scare away investment but the fact that investors have to depend on the lumpen English proletariat for their workforce. ] Britain is NOT putting up barriers to highly skilled immigrants. It is putting up barriers to unskilled or low skilled immigrants. In other words Britain has a sensible approach. The… Read more »
[
In a competitive world, being good is the only thing that ensures permanence, unless, of course, you rig the market by rules and regulations designed to minimise competition and maximise the amount of money you can gouge out of the market that you have rigged.
]
Ireland’s state sector does not like competition.
Live in the state sector is permanence. No concerns about accountability.
The state system in Ireland, is heading towards symbiosis. It will not stop until it sucks the host upon which it lives, dead.
I disagree with the article in the context that a large segment of the Irish workforce is receiving cost pressure, whilst at the same time, the state system (which is the source of the cost pressure) seeks more money out of the system.
We are in serious trouble. Ireland’s costs are completely out of whack. We are not competitive in many sectors.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06/what-bridgewaters-ray-dalio-told-new-york-fed “”It is no longer controversial to say that: • …this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth • …the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward • …the risks are asymmetric to the downside • …investment returns will be very low going forward, and • …the impatience with economic stagnation, especially among middle and lower income earners, is leading to dangerous populism and nationalism. Where does that leave us now? By and large: 1) Productivity growth is slow, though properly accounting for it has… Read more »
Change McWilliams?
There is NO CHANGE when it comes to banking fraud. No one personally goes to jail even when the fraud is a stupendous 5 BILLION;
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/11/goldman-sachs-2008-financial-crisis-mortagage-backed-securities
Gsuckin across the Universe
On the starship G sucks
Under Captain Jerk
Gsuckin across the Universe
Things aren’t getting Better
Things are getting worse.
The WORSE it gets Dathi the BETTER for GSUCKS!
Grzegorz, . Thank u for ur reply to my series of questions put to u in 1 post. . Grzegorz Kolodziej October 7, 2016 at 1:47 am . I think that all posters to this blog would be for the better to attend to that reply. . Some matters “questioned AND answered” I would be familiar with prior. . Some matters “questioned AND answered” I understand now following ur persuasive answers. . e.g. . Pushing for restriction on abortion knowing it will fail to trigger the outraged electorate demand to liberalise it ? . Some matters “questioned AND answered” I… Read more »
http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-this-gold-takedown-charade-is-about-to-backfire-violently-on-western-central-banks/
Change is constant, especially in underwear!! “As for benefitting from tax laws, Pat Buchanan pointed out that Hillary used to her benefit a loss almost as large as Trump’s and during the Arkansas years Hillary even took a tax deduction for itemized pieces of used clothing donated to a charity, including $2 for one of Bill’s used underpants.” “Why does the world look to the most stupid, vile, arrogant, corrupt and murderous government on the planet for leadership? War is the only destination to which Washington can lead” http://kingworldnews.com/paul-craig-roberts-washington-pushing-the-world-to-war-can-trump-stop-it/ Why would Ireland tie themselves to the imagined benefit of association… Read more »
Here is example of the Winning Side [ Zio-USA ] embracing the Losing Side [ Germany ; Germans, & Nazis ] AND vice versa. Not alone did they embrace change, they in their sheer embracing of change manufactured a new change. . . http://www.henrymakow.com/001699.html . Gestapo Chief Became Top Truman Advisor (Encore) . August 9, 2013 . After playing for the Nazis in World War 2, Gestapo Chief Heinrich Muller was drafted by USA in time for the Cold War. . “Mueller regarded Washington as “a cross between a zoo and an insane asylum.” He had contempt for his CIA… Read more »
Economic thoiught for the day Dathi;
Hitler and the Nazis wiped out 6 million Jews or roughly 1m per year for the 6 years of WW2.
The link below shows that Abeonomics (the Jap Central bank policy) will reduce the Jap population by roughly NINE HUNDRED THOUSAND JAPS PER YEAR for the next 44 YEARS up to 2060!
Interesting comparison isn’t it?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/03/japans-demography
We are witnessing one of the greatest examples of national self-harm in history – Brexit. Can anybody think of any such unprovoked mass suicidal event anywhere in recorded history? I can’t. Last nights “flash crash” of Sterling demonstrates how jittery world markets have become as they try to come to terms with the irreversible harm Britain has done to itself by undermining the credibility of the City of London where I got my basic business degree and served my initial apprenticeship. Thank goodness I moved on. I remember being so proud to participate in London’s then global reputation for honest… Read more »
So many people I know are mentioning that assassination is in the cards for Trump that I cannot think other than that he himself has to be aware too.
This is a terrible indictment for our so called civilisation that this is even a possibility . Never minding the fact that so many of us are expecting such to happen.
What, Mike, may I ask, do you think will happen if such an event occurred??
http://b.scorecardresearch.com/b?c1=2&c2=16951747&ns_site=test&ns_type=clickin&rte_vs_ct=aud&rte_vs_sc=pod&rte_mt_sec=radio&rte_mt_prg_name=liveline&rte_vs_sn=radio1&rte_mt_pub_dt=2016-10-03&title=Pensions&c7=http://podcast.rasset.ie/podcasts/audio/2016/1003/20161003_rteradio1-liveline-pensions_c21063371_21063391_232_/20161003_rteradio1-liveline-pensions_c21063371_21063391_232_.mp3&r=http://podcast.rasset.ie/podcasts/audio/2016/1003/20161003_rteradio1-liveline-pensions_c21063371_21063391_232_/20161003_rteradio1-liveline-pensions_c21063371_21063391_232_.mp3
http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/sterling-gold-gilts/
“Inflation is beginning to raise its ugly head, while economic growth remains weak. There is a whiff of stagflation in the air …””
http://usawatchdog.com/weekly-news-wrap-up-10-7-16-greg-hunter/
US/Russia Very Close to War, Global Debt Out of Control says IMF and MSM Political Hacks
One issue not been discussed is food security in the UK. Whereas Ireland can support 7 times its population, the UK must import food in. Food inflation is inevitably coming down the tracks and with a rise in oil and energy costs, fall in Sterling, it will become more expensive for the UK to feed itself. They can produce and process more indigenous food using extra energy, but this of course will come at extra cost. What if for whatever reason there is are food shortages in Europe and the EU countries are mandated to supply their own markets. It… Read more »
http://dimartinobooth.com/the-overlords-of-finance/
“It was the best of times. And it still is. Intrepid investors who never dreamed they’d put all of their eggs in one full-boar risk asset basket have never had it so good. Stocks are up, bonds are up, emerging markets are up, real estate is up. Heck, it’s all up. As it should well be. It’s different this time. No, really. It is.”
If the Chinese demanded that the Americans and the Europeans pay for everything they ship to those two continents the Chinese economy would collapse. If they were to call in all their American and European IOUs in the form of U.S. and E.U. bonds, the Chinese, American and European economies would collapse. I guess they should read this blog and wise up. Maybe I should send them a link and collapse the world economy.
… (pay for everything they ship) in gold, I meant to say…
The elephant in the room, is the scale of Irish inability to compete with post-Brexit UK. And the main cause of this is the footprint of the institutional state and it’s largesse programs. And the top largesse program in Ireland is quango-mania. It is completely off the charts. Bertonomics never went away, it became fixed into the system. Time to look the out of control phenomenon of statism, in the face, and put it on a diet. Ireland has a problem called “Oglenomics”. It is aggressive Bertonomics. It is described as “Fairness”. And it is utter BS. The most intelligent… Read more »
When Britain leaves the EU, Ireland will be increasingly anchored to the dead weight of EU centralism, and it’s constituent madness. “more EU rope” to tie up bsuiness, to drive institutional power, and preferred business interests.
Trichet showed the way. Top level decisions that imprison a society, and that trasfer from the working to the speculating.
Madness.
@Pat Flannery,
Well Pat,
Why don’t you answer the question about the US and whether it is solvent or not?
Pat,
“If you want a question answered please do not preface it with “You are madder than a bonbon”. There is a big difference between a hard tackle and a personal insult.”
– and it is time you understand that difference and do not post opinionated comments such as “the verbose sophistry on this blog”. He who lives by the sword shall die by the sword.
Grzegorz, . I read carefully that link u gave me to read before I consider putting more questions to u ; zrobtosam.com/PulsPol/Puls3/index.php?sekcja=47&arty_id=10719 . More evidence of how Poland is riddled with treachery within its ranks of : politicians civil SERPENTS ; incl. secret service civil SERPENTS business people bank professionals & foreigners ; vis. Russian — sic ? 8-) ; Maybe they not Russia-1st-ters — business persons e.g. oil industry executives . By the way, I think another scenario worthy of serious consideration is that downing of the Polish airplane with the Prime Mincer [ Chris Spivey jargon ] &… Read more »
Conclusion: This is part of a larger destruction of Western culture and values and it is ongoing. What’s taking place is not happenstance, not in Europe, nor in the US. Freedom is being destroyed, but in a deliberate manner, to send a message and increase polarization. Many currents are swirling beneath the surface that make this presidential campaign an epochal one.
Sometimes nothing changes. Boys will be boys!!
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/mainstream-media-implodes-over-trump-sex-comments/