In recent weeks I’ve been travelling around the country, talking to people and listening to ideas about how best to get out of this mess. What is coming up in all conversation is the sense that the insiders in Ireland are getting away with it and the outsiders are being asked to take most of the pain.
To the people I’m chatting with, whether in Kilkenny, Limerick or Cork, there is a palpable sense that those on the inside are not paying for their mistakes — rather those on the outside are paying. People seem to be waiting for regime change but it’s not happening.
The bankers are the financial equivalent of the bishops. Like the Church hierarchy, the banking hierarchy is not resigning. In fact they are regrouping and getting stronger at the top, taking State money without any conditions.
Meanwhile, the politicians are spinning that the boom was a collective madness and we are all to blame, which of course absolves them of any culpability. The big estate agents who facilitated all the property nonsense by their ridiculous valuations are set to make millions from fees to NAMA and the little guy is being asked to bail out the big guy and take cuts in his wages to boot.
“Surely,” people are saying, “a crisis should lead to change, to reappraisal and should usher in a new generation who will sweep away the old and start again with new ideas and new ways of doing things?”
In terms of countries that learned from crises, time and again we come back to Scandinavia, not because they have invented some crisp, environmentally friendly Utopia up there, but because in the face of crises they appear serious about learning from their mistakes and changing the system.
In their banking crisis of 1992/3, the Scandinavians moved swiftly to get rid of the old guard by protecting the interests of their citizens at all costs. Take the example of Sweden. In five months, Sweden guaranteed its banking system, nationalised its banks, let some others go bust, set up two bad banks, didn’t use public money until shareholders’ money was used up and then it devalued its currency to give its exporters a chance.
The Swedes, Finns and Norwegians smashed the old guard that was responsible for the mess. They moved to oust the insiders, to the benefit of new management — the outsiders.
In Ireland, the opposite has been the case. The main players in politics are still here. The party that got us into this mess is still in power. The banks still have the main guys at the top and the union leaders, who were part of the “nod and wink” status quo of the past 10 years, are still at the helm. In other words, the insiders are still very much on the inside, while the outsiders are locked out.
This “insider/outsider” view of society is an interesting way of looking at the country. But because the outsiders are not a unified force and there is no unified representative of the outsiders, this world is rarely commented upon in the media.
In short, the insiders are those with a large and well-organised stake in our country. They are the political class, the media, the large protected industries and the civil service. They are the union leaders and the IBEC leaders. All these people have a stake in the society. They are by no means the root of our problems, but they are a power grouping with a voice and an influence.
In contrast, the “outsiders” include the young and particularly the young who are unemployed. Today 30pc of those under 25 are unemployed. This is a shocking figure. The outsiders also include small businesses, which are struggling badly, those on welfare who feel abandoned and those who are emigrating in large numbers again. Their stake in Ireland has always been tenuous. During the boom they were temporarily inside the big tent but once the bust came they were out in the cold again.
Given this power structure, it is interesting to see that, in a crisis, Sweden, Denmark and Norway are monarchies that actually behave like republics where the people are looked after, whereas Ireland is a republic that behaves like a monarchy where the elite cling on, looking down on the people.
However, this can’t last because without a change in Ireland, the economy will continue to contract. The world sees through us. The State and the bankers don’t seem to understand that we are now living in an instantaneous world, where information is free and available. You can’t pull the wool over everyone’s eyes indefinitely.
In recent days there has been much backslapping from the Government because of a vaguely positive editorial in the ‘Financial Times’. In fact, I was on the ‘Frontline’ programme on Monday night with a minister who claimed that the Government and, by extension, the banks were getting plaudits for the Budget and new management of the country’s finances.
But the real proof is not in words but in actions. Despite all the tough talk about cutting this and that, the financial markets have decided that the risk of default in Ireland is probably about the same today as it was last week. The reason for this is that the markets know that there is a nasty surprise coming in the guise of a broken bank system, which will suffer in the face of growing mortgage default, credit card default and the like next year.
As a result, yesterday the shares of Ireland’s banks fell dramatically because the financial markets realise that a country which doesn’t change in a crisis is a country that can’t be taken seriously.
If we are to come out of this catastrophe stronger, the outsiders must become insiders and the insiders become outsiders. That’s what local people and international investors are looking for. Never before have the issues been clearer.
Hi David, a lot of people are complaining now, but how many of them were actual participants in the bubble, participating in the one-upmanship? Loads of them. We had a ponzi scheme. Such a scheme needs participants at all layers. It is not accurate to lay the blame totally at the guys at the top. Those in the middle layers are often just as guilty, and to point the finger of blame at a figurehead at the top of the pile suits their agenda. They fail to point the finger at themselves. The ubiquitous availability of credit ensured that the… Read more »
David,
that’s an astounding warning shot and very defining.
I hope you’re sporting a repeater shotgun with loadsa backup cartridges :-D
“Regime change” Yikes.
But the Republic / monarchy dichotomy is astounding. We have no republic, we have no citizenship while the clientelists remain infesting us.
We (our gatekeepers) have no honesty and therefore no real understanding of what tax is, how it is justified and what the spirit of legislation is.
Well said and well written.
David. I am 1000 % behind you. You write the truth head on and sometimes one has no choice but too do so, and if ever there is a time to call a spade a spade it is now while the criminality is red hot, visible and dangerous. Those who looted the country know who they are and know it was wrong and know their are those who did not loot the country and know outing the truth must be stopped as far as the scammers and gallery of rogues and schemers are concerned so as they can escape with… Read more »
Folks, two new Facebook groups have sprung-up, calling, not for “regime-change”, but for “Revolution”.
http://www.facebook.com/search/?flt=1&q=revolution%2Bireland&o=69&sid=723224329.730347756..1&s=10#/group.php?gid=82306034565&ref=search&sid=723224329.730347756..1
…and
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?v=wall&ref=search&gid=197280881740
I heard about the smaller group on the news today, but found the larger group first, when I went searching.
Of course, the irony is that people must unite if they are going to bring change.
“the outsiders must become insiders and the insiders become outsiders.” This is what needs to happen, however, that isn’t the way our economy or social system works, so this is dreaming. ” what … international investors are looking for.” What international investors want is to extract a profit – nothing else, same with bankers, foreign or domestic. The problem is the profit motive, our system is designed to serve this cause, it is not designed to satisify the needs of people living in Ireland. It isn’t our “insiders” who caused the crash, that would be to attribute them importance beyond… Read more »
Pandering to the “profit motive” has most often turned out to satisfy the needs of the greatest number of people. That is the basis of the capitalist system. Let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. Most people believe that laissez-faire capitalism is a step too far and favour regulation. In this case, lack of regulation is squarely to blame. Let’s fix that problem first. Then we can let the banking insiders, wherever they come from or however appointed, get on with being capitalist pigs, just as we need.
Hi David, You nailed it. The Irish government is a big part of the problem here. What investor would invest in a country that rewards failure? What will happen the next time an Irish bank hits trouble? Regardless of the reasons, they will surely get a bailout because the same flawed thinking is in power. The flawed thinking that created NAMA. The same flawed thinking that insults investors intelligence with statements like ‘long term value’ ; Implying that it must be ‘greater’. Regulation is like moving deck chairs on the titanic. Ireland needs a 180 degree change in thinking at… Read more »
“But the real proof is not in words but in actions. Despite all the tough talk about cutting this and that, the financial markets have decided that the risk of default in Ireland is probably about the same today as it was last week.” I think the risk of default is probably greater due to the growing sense of unease and alienation in our society arising from the recent budget. Cowen and Lenihan had the opportunity to show real leadership, taking TOUGH decisions which would have been considered daring and unprecedented on the world stage. Imagine what might have happened,… Read more »
Folks, a good economic summary of Ireland 2009:
http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/12/16/2009-the-year-that-wasnt/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+StephenKinsella+%28Stephen+Kinsella%2C+Ph.D%29
David: This is an excellent well-balanced article. You say: “The State and the bankers don’t seem to understand that we are now living in an instantaneous world, where information is free and available. You can’t pull the wool over everyone’s eyes indefinitely.” I have a slight beef about that last sentence, because although its generality is indeed perfectly valid, it doesn’t point out that you can pull the wool over the majority of people’s eyes indefinitely. Otherwise FF would never have been re-elected. Most people don’t respond to information stimuli, they are simply led by the carrot and the stick.… Read more »
Aha! The “daily divisor”! Just another method by which the Irish Banks are ripping-off joe-Public. Seemingly, the divisor changed to a standard Eurzone dne of 360, when we joined the euro. Our banks immediately applied the new divisor to “corporate” or “large business” deposits, but left all personal-retail deposits on the old divisor of 365. So, what does it mean? The example given was this: €8,000 on deposit for 30 days at 3% interest, will yield €20 for the corporate client, but only €19. 72 for the personal-retail depositor. Not much of a loss per month for the individual, but… Read more »
Fighting back against the forces of oppression.
‘Can people become so broken that truth’s of how they are being screwed do not ‘set them free’ but instead further demoralize them?’
‘Has such a demoralization happened in Ireland?’
http://www.alternet.org/story/144529/are_americans_a_broken_people_why_we%27ve_stopped_fighting_back_against_the_forces_of_oppression?page=entire
Revolution Why the hell not? I have written to the minster stating that I do not recognize his or his government’s authority over me or my family I am willing to do anything to remove this corrupt government The Trade Unions are the only realistic way the workers in this country can gather enough muscle and topple this corrupt government. The FF &G, Government has pushed through legislation to bail out their buddies in the |Banks and Building industries To pay for it they have pushed through a budget that robs from the poor and gives to the rich,have bribed,… Read more »
All the ‘Seanie Fitzpatricks’ must be pissing on themselves laughing at the way they ‘got away with it’. Now they are consolidating their positions instead of doing a stint in Mountjoy. They’ll all be out slapping each others backs on the golf course this Xmas while a huge section of our population will spend the ‘Festive Season’ wondering if they will a place to live in the new year.
Ah sure, when you have a population who kept their mouths shut while the disciples of the Vatican were screwing their kids….
What can you expect?
I am willing
To meet anyone of you with the view to taking real and sustained action to help get these corrupt b******s out of Government and bring about a complete change in the political system that has sold us out to foreign bond holders
how many of you are willing to help?
This article and commentary is missing one thing; no direspect to the author or fellow commentators.
It is missing the raining-blow analysis of clientelism by our own Deco.
I am sure Deco is busy gathering thoughts and choosing incursion points and beach-heads into this fascinating and well-timed article.
Apologies to G for my continuous use of military talk. I’ve studied strategy, both academically and personally and have read all of the masters. The conflict metaphor is not without merit in such social interactions. I am not a bertie-concensus man meself……..
Ah David ,..Nice to see you getting the mood spot on here .
Good prose . spot on, Missed Kilkenny thanks to my dentist , but my mates went
Thanks for this Article David and for exposing the truth over the years.
I look forward to the day the insiders will have to account for their actions. I’m sure that will eventually happen.
The insiders may have a stranglehold on the country now, but honesty and fairness will eventually win out.
The truth of how we got into this mess and what may now happen to us is now quite well documented in articles and blogs. What can the public do about it? We are such an accepting bunch. At least the Icelanders caused such a stir that the Government was shamed into resigning. They suddenly saw how angry the public were. We have done nothing as a joint force, public and private, to demonstrate our anger, but for a few blogs and petitions. Even the crippled working class and unemployed sit quiet. I’ve done nothing myself. Has anyone an answer… Read more »
Greatest financial fraud in the history of the world and the Irish State. Democratic despots. A business run society. People marginalised, not involved in decision making process. ‘Functional’ democracy with ‘election events’ every 3-4 years, with a narrow range of candidates with an even narrower political agenda. ‘Mindless consumers’ making irrational choices bombared by PR and advertising propaganda which fuel unrealistic and destructive ambitions. A massive government-business appartus which makes debt slaves of the many, others with job insecurity (called ‘market flexibility’ in neoliberal parlance) and unemployment (30% of those under 25 unemployed), real State wide unemployment at 20%. The… Read more »
Late in the day reading this – and I hope David these types of articles are not there to incite reactions for whatever reasons. Paddy on Post1 summed it up – most of us were at it. Most of us are still at – look at the shedloads heading North; the wealthier heading to NewYork; the consultants earning in and around the 1m mark. This country set up a welfare system it could not afford; it had weak government (and believe me the only worse thing that could have happened in the last 10 years was that a FG /… Read more »
civil servants are insiders are they? as someone who has just had his pay savaged for the second year in succession, im clearly not aware of the benefits (and Im not looking for sympathy and I voted against industrial action before anyone starts)
[…] McWilliams’ latest article is his most potent piece in quite a […]
Anyone wanting to get more information on Government Debt & Default Should follow this link http://machholz.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=4164 As to starting to do something about our own situation here in Ireland, I am willing to do my part in what I call mobile demonstrations against the corrupt ruling elite It is proposed to plan a number of sustained demonstrations outside the relevant Government buildings plus other “Actions” I can be contacted at jobseekers.selfhelp@gmail.com a self help group highlighting the plight of the jobseekers in Wicklow town I am done writing and talking about the corruption and the self interest that govern this… Read more »
Our neutrality stance has removed the Irish backbone and our ability to fight – we simply leave it to someone else to do it for us. Some of Greece’s deficit problems are to do with the purchase of expensive arms and not with over paid public servants. Our public service is now famous throughout Europe for its ability to extract so much for so little in return. It’s no wonder that everybody in Ireland with two brain cells wanted a public service job. Even our PhD’s were rushing into it, instead of taking the riskier option of creating something in… Read more »
Folks, an interesting notion here, discussing our socio-economic position in terms of hunting versus gardening:
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2009/12/hunter-commentators-and-vanity-of.html
Sat urday’s Irish mail contained a picture of Sean F leaving the Trocadero restaurant.Same old cheesy grin.What odds Mr F doing some time?.Nil.
The antics of Charles Haughey, Bertie Ahern and other scandals (Floods tribunal, Ansbacher, FAS,…) have been going on for over 20 years. Those who called for change then were often called reds and commies for spoiling the success of the Celtic tiger. Sure everybody had something to gain and the moral corruption that was exposed on a daily basis (and payed for by the taxpayer) seems to have become the model by which success is achieved. It has pervaded through society and why not. Our leaders are getting away with it (Remember the minister for finance with no bank account… Read more »
Bias in the Irish media re the budget and our economic situation?
Surely not!!!???
http://www.mediabite.org/
“The banks still have the main guys at the top and the union leaders, who were part of the “nod and wink” status quo of the past 10 years, are still at the helm.” Public servants have their union leaders to blame. I believe that unions, from the outset should have accepted the inevitability of cutbacks. The unions would then have been freer to exact a fair price from politicians. The unions could have explored other avenues. The one-day strike was a waste of time. Consider the following: I am not aware of any union’s general secretary calling for pay… Read more »
I agree with you David. Taken straight out of your book (but I think you referred to “senior” civil servants there if memory serves?). What matter, I referred before to circles within circles and that, as the numbers were plainly too high for all to be looked after, the outer circles would break and drop off. (Someone then made the reasonable that if your back is against the wall you have to form a circle.) This whole set up is bred in the bone (just see how fast people from all classes jumped on the property bandwagon for an easy… Read more »
A quote
” ah sure what can we do , ye cant change anything”
David,
with regard to banks tanking, there may be a push to sell off the stocks so that it can be offset against yearly gains.
And there’s been quite a lot of gains this year.
Remember it’s not a loss until you sell it!
AMY GOODMAN: President Morales, welcome to Democracy Now! PRESIDENT EVO MORALES: [translated] Thank you very much for the invitation. AMY GOODMAN: You spoke yesterday here at the Bella Center and said we cannot end global warming without ending capitalism. What did you mean? PRESIDENT EVO MORALES: [translated] Capitalism is the worst enemy of humanity. Capitalism–and I’m speaking about irrational development–policies of unlimited industrialization are what destroys the environment. And that irrational industrialization is capitalism. So as long as we don’t review or revise those policies, it’s impossible to attend to humanity and life. AMY GOODMAN: How would you do that?… Read more »
The only reason we have an insider/outsider system is because half the workforce is denied their right to collective bargaining, a system which is colluded with by the pampered elite of the trade union movement, who are happy to leave out half the workforce in order to get a bigger piece of pie for their greedy obese bellies, while those on the outside have endured job cuts and pay freezes back as far as the late 1990s. Engageed on its first round of redundancies as far back as 2000 – it was inevitable that this small start would escalate to… Read more »
Aspirations – There is a collective emotional bag in the room that wants to sweep away the decay in our society. The intended change is unlikely to happen because there in NO Manifesto .It would be better if we could nail a new Proclamation to The GPO and The Dail .Unfortunately that wont happen either because FL ( in the room ) says everyone that did so in 1916 were killed .So what binds us that is sterling to our dreams to be free again?How do you print it ? Whatever happens it needs to be like The Orange Revolution… Read more »
Folks, It’s worth seeing this again, now.
“Network – I’m Mad as Hell”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08&feature=related
It pretty-much sums up the mood of ordinary decent people.
The ‘owners of the means of production’ are closing down internet freedoms.
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2009-10/digitaleconomy.html
I agree with John ALLEN on the need for a clear pretext before making a move.
If one is too make a move and challenge the prevailing orthodoxies ruling society one must be damn sure what it is one is attempting too replace and with what.
I suggest the following.
Money issuance and credit issuance under the control of private interests in central too fixing the insider / outsider system perpetuating debt slavery.
Return credit issuance into the hands of the people.
This in my POV is the bulls eye demanding gouging.
Congratulations to David; Shane; George and Eddie – self publicists one and all. Hope your rewards are plentiful – you seem to have a lot of backers on this website.
Phil R
Furry –
A pretext as fine as one can be realistic on.
Count me in.
Folks, The Kenny Report has finally arrived online in searchable format via OCR (courtesy of Gavin Sheridan – Thanks!)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24244062/The-Kenny-Report
Evening All’
Thanks for all the comments. The insider/outsider issue will not go away and I fear it will drag us down during the next few years as the insiders will stop at nothing in the battle for both personal and institutional survival.
David
David.
On the insider / outsider struggle do you feel helpless or powerless or do you think there maybe a calling of some type for some type of a ‘coming together’ of similar minds too test the waters on some type of countering voice on the insiders monopoly over the truth and prevalence against any outsiders elbowing in….?
A Prophesy before bed I’ll speak a prophecy ere I go: When priests are more in word than matter; When brewers mar their malt with water; When nobles are their tailors’ tutors; No heretics burn’d, but wenches’ suitors; When every case in law is right; No squire in debt, nor no poor knight; When slanders do not live in tongues; Nor cutpurses come not to throngs; When usurers tell their gold i’ the field; And bawds and whores do churches build; Then shall the land of Eireann Come to great confusion: Then comes the time, who lives to see’t, That… Read more »
Well, Merlin?
Ok, Furrylugs, I’ll check myself….. (but I’m sure I’m right).
[…] this is only a blog – in addition to the fact that individuals such as Eddie Hobbs and David McWilliams have exhausted this type of avenue – l will try to keep this one brief, (as difficult as […]
Looks like everyone with a brain is getting out of AIB this morning. The one reason the insiders are cooked is the financial markets. They don’t have babies to kiss or potholes to tarmac. Fooling the people most of the time just nurtures the international belief that our leadership is out of its depth. I know we’re told that the NTMA have borrowed enough to tide us over for this coming year- I think, but wherefore then? If the healthy pharma / FDI industries are an economy within an economy with all profits being exported, what else have we got… Read more »
an interesting article probing towards The Big Issues: How to dismantle an atomic bomb-Doomsday Device which is the unrestrained Entitlement Agenda Of Elites of any and all persuasion….
Peak Government
Peak Democracy
Peak Corporation
Peak Credit Welfare Capitalism
Peak Tax -Backstopped Capitalism
Ireland is a microcosm apocalype of the global one.
I’ll ruminate and comment on Ireland specifically once I’ve finished the Xmas shopping!