By hook or by crook’ is a wonderful, outdated expression. It’s the sort of thing my grandfather used to say. We all know what it means, but where does it come from? I heard it the other day while at the wonderful O’Sullivan’s pub in Crookhaven watching a dogged Leicester City grind out another result against Manchester United. With pints and toasties in front of us, we watched as Leicester had a man sent off in a belt and braces final five minutes, when the old fella beside me declared: “This Leicester outfit are determined to win the league by hook or by crook.”
The expression dates from the days of the first Norman invasions of Ireland, when rudimentary sailing boats left from Bristol or Pembroke bound for Ireland. The first Norman king of Ireland was Richard III, whose remains, incidentally, were dug up a few years ago under a car park in the centre of Leicester.
Back in his day, depending on the weather, the voyage to Ireland could be extremely hazardous and many ships didn’t make it.
For the Normans, the two most extreme points on the Irish southern coast with harbours where they could possibly dock were Hook Head in Waterford to the east, and Crookhaven in Cork to the west. If you didn’t make land between Hook and Crook you were going off towards the wild Atlantic and the treacherous west coast, where the seas were huge, the ports few and the native Irish not too friendly to the hapless Normans.
Therefore, the Normans vowed to land in Ireland “by hook or by crook” and deploy any means necessary to do so because to miss the stretch between Hook Head and Crookhaven meant the voyage was a total failure.
Thus, “by hook or by crook” is to achieve your aim by any means possible, fair or foul.
Listening to the Brexit debate and the extraordinary lengths to which the Establishment in Ireland, Britain and Brussels is going to snuff out the ‘Vote Leave’ movement, “hook” and “crook” spring to mind. The Bank of England, the UK Treasury and, of course, the OECD have all come out with “serious” documents predicting economic calamity if the UK votes to leave the EU.
The ‘Remain’ camp paints a picture where, largely because of a fall-off in inward investment, the UK economy will plummet downwards, sterling will weaken and, ultimately, the UK will lose its influence in the world because it will be isolated. In addition, this view – mainly articulated by the Remain campaign – makes the point that the UK will not have free trade with the EU and so trade will stop or be massively hindered, further ratcheting down growth.
In contrast, the Leave people suggest that unbound by the EU’s bureaucratic shackles, a free-wheeling, free-trading UK will become hyper-competitive and the economy will accelerate rapidly. It will become a type of Singapore in the North Atlantic. Their economic analysis, which is, incidentally, getting much less press either in the mainstream papers or from the BBC, points to 5pc growth rates as a direct result of leaving.
The truth is that no one actually knows what will happen.
One plausible argument is that the UK – with its 60 million-plus population, the reasonably well-run sixth-largest economy in the world with its own currency, huge wealth around London and excellence in finance, advertising and, increasingly, tech start-ups – will be fine after an initial wobble. This is the middle-ground view. It’s not the stuff of posters and sexy campaigns, but it’s probably more accurate than the evangelical zealotry of both sides.
The question is: where do we stand?
The most reasonable estimation of the future if the UK is out of the EU is one where the complexion of the UK economy changes. If there are doubts over trade deals and the treatment of UK capital and produce trading with the EU, as the Remain camp argues, then direct foreign investment into the UK will falter. The UK will suffer from complicated trade deals and a lack of clarity as to how things will pan out. This means something very clear for Ireland. If direct foreign investment, particularly American direct foreign investment, doesn’t go to the UK, where will it go? What is the country that feels, smells and tastes like Britain, but isn’t Britain? Where would US executives feel most at home, with tax rates that are attractive and full access to the EU? Yes, you guessed: Ireland.
Far from it being in our interest for the UK to stay in the EU, it is in our commercial interest for the UK to be mired in red tape, uncertainty and fog. So why is our government actively campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU? Why are we doing Brussels’ job, when it’s not our job to advocate anything in the domestic politics of a quasi-foreign country.
I say quasi-foreign because England isn’t foreign in the traditional sense of the world; after all, O’Sullivan’s, close to the western-most tip of Ireland, was jammed with Irish people roaring on Leicester City, the home of royalist Richard III. It’s not foreign, it’s an ambiguous, complex, intertwined relationship. For example, Irish citizens living across the water can vote, whereas French citizens living in the UK can’t.
However, in economic terms it is unambiguous. Britain is our main trading partner. We still feed the UK. Close to half our total agricultural exports go to the UK, so unless they stop eating after Brexit, there’s no reason to think that we will not continue to feed them. The only reason there would be a problem with UK trade is if the EU got vindictive after Brexit and put up trade barriers, and if we did not use our veto at the Council of Ministers to block such an adolescent reaction. The veto is reserved for extreme events, which dramatically affect our national interest. Trade barriers and border checks with the UK are such events.
Can you imagine an Irish government that goes along with a spiteful EU diktat punishing the UK to prove a geo-political point, which would be against our fundamental national interest? Maybe there are enough Europhile zealots in positions of power deep within the Irish establishment that such a self-harming decision is not out of the question.
In short, Brexit may actually be good for us in the long term, particularly if the damage to the UK’s investment image is as bad as the Remain camp claims it will be if the UK leaves. Clearly, British-bound investment will be diverted elsewhere. Remember, our country is 15 times smaller than Britain and therefore we only need a small amount of that diverted FDI for it to make a massive difference. If we veto the EU’s vindictiveness, we insulate ourselves from the extremes of Europhilia and arrive at a sensible conclusion.
Despite this obvious scenario where we can play a canny game, official Ireland is doing Brussels’ bidding campaigning to make sure that the UK stays in the EU . . . by hook or by crook.
Strange.
Last native English speaking nation in the EU, where are the yanks going to setup new EU ventures :-)
‘’The first Norman king of Ireland was Richard III’’!! I think what David may have meant to say was that King Richard III was the LAST Norman King of Ireland, which is still wrong. King Henry II was the first Plantagenet King of England. Plantagenet was only a nickname, Henry was still a Norman. Richard was indeed the last Norman/Plantagenet King of England, but he was never King of Ireland. King Henry II and his successors never claimed the title King of Ireland. Henry had been granted the title Lord of Ireland by the Pope in 1155. The Pope wanted… Read more »
I would have liked to read your opinion on the impact on Ireland if Brexit is good for the British economy…..?
Hi David, Some of your comments I agree with (e.g. nobody knows what will really happen in the event of a Brexit), some of your other points need to be analysed further. Take beef exports for example. In 2015, we exported €2.2 billion and you’re right in saying about half of this went to the UK. In a Brexit scenario, the UK will be keen to pursue free trade deals with Latin America, Australia and New Zealand for example. What will they ask for in return? Better (possibly free) access for their meat and dairy exports. What will that do… Read more »
I agree with the general gist of your argument David. We should view Brexit as an opportunity for Ireland regardless whether it is good or bad for Britain. If they vote to leave then there will be uncertainty – that is what we need to capitalise on. There will be a lot of business done before an exit would be finalised and FDI capital looking for a home. We need to make sure it comes here. I also find it hard to understand why Irish politicians are advocating that the UK remains in the EU – that is a decision… Read more »
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The truth is that no one actually knows what will happen.
]
Exactly.
Which makes all the Chicken-Licken idiots look rather stupid. Particularly, stupid will be politicians who favour the dictats coming from Brussels, that seem to be causing endless crisis – declaring that obedience to such dictats ( “more EU rope” ) is what is required to solve the problems (that they create).
[ The only reason there would be a problem with UK trade is if the EU got vindictive after Brexit and put up trade barriers, and if we did not use our veto at the Council of Ministers to block such an adolescent reaction. ] Unfortunately, the politicians that we have been sending to Brussels are very comfortable with adolescent reactions. In fact the obedience-bloc in Irish politics agrees with bad decisions. Even when they impact Ireland adversely. Cue, Lenihan and Cowen deciding to not negotiate the Bank Bondholder debt (and following this up by shoving responsibility for this lack… Read more »
[ Can you imagine an Irish government that goes along with a spiteful EU diktat punishing the UK to prove a geo-political point, which would be against our fundamental national interest? ] Unfortunately, it has already happened. Just look at the reaction produced by “mainstream” Irish politicians to the Greek crisis. And they have consistently sold out Ireland’s interest. Cowen because he agreed to a bailout of Greece, when he knew Ireland was next. Kenny by relentlessly backing the subjugation of Greek society. Ireland’s politicians are a subservient lot, who like to engage in ‘green jersey’ posturing before they get… Read more »
[ Far from it being in our interest for the UK to stay in the EU, it is in our commercial interest for the UK to be mired in red tape, uncertainty and fog. ] That description applies to many countries already in the EU. And in many regards, it applies to all EU members. The UK, if it leaves, will be in a position to get rid of the “red tape, uncertainty, and fog”. The real danger is to the leadership in control of the EU. They have no clue what they are doing. And they are becomming increasingly… Read more »
Nice spot O’Sullivan’s. Had a lovely prawn sandwich there not so long ago – eat your heart out Roy Keane, will be visiting again soon. Morning chaps, subscribe.
The Irish establishment won’t veto anything, they don’t have the balls for that.
If there is Brexit, Westminster will be able to make it’s own rules concerning investment. And Britain will gain investment. Germany, where VW is in serious financial trouble, will not erect any tarifs against Britain. Despite the fact that Britain makes more cars than anybody else in Europe, with the exception of Germany. For all the loudmouthing, there will be no retaliation, because the EU is not fit to retaliate. In other words, the the big talk from Brussels is a collection of politicians pretending that their pet imperial project is sacrosanct. If there is BRemain – then there will… Read more »
I find David’s argument with investment in Ireland (after Brexit) instead of the UK convincing; however, I can see one problem with it (problem not only for Ireland) – Brexit would mean an even bigger power of Germany in Europe (which Brexit, as I said before, I now do not believe it will happen, unless there is a major upheaval in Europe). Perhaps surprisingly for some, I like German culture in general (I am talking about their so called high culture, music and theatre in particular), but the question you should ask yourself is: do you want to be part… Read more »
Worth a read lads:
“The true fascination of bitcoin is not its mystery inventor”
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/03/bitcoin-craig-wright-satoshi-nakamoto-blockchain-technology
Just an FYI.
Hook is the cape on which the lighthouse is built, and on the Wexford side. Crook is a ridge further up towards the head of the fjord and on the Waterford side.
Draw the Suir to Waterford city with your finger, from the sea to city and you have the makings of a shepherds staff.
But your substantive point is good.
If you have a job that requires a high then you can relax.
http://lofi.phys.org/news/2016-05-robot-revolutionrise-intelligent-automated-workforce.html
Maybe cos that’s based on current best guess.
Then ask yourself how many teachers do you know have a high EQ.
This statement “excellence in finance” reminded me of this add;
https://youtu.be/FfezfZPw-qk
I believe that despite it being pretty much impossible, economists’ attempted predictions of the future generally and Brexit specifically is speculation which is not offered in the hope of being accurate or in any useful except to promote certain power agendas. The main and perpetual scheme is of course the ongoing subjugation of the people and their democratic rights. Media based predictions are merely standard method of psychological control aka propaganda. It deserves to be noted that the propaganda is done on behalf of the European Empire. However that it is overwhelmingly from the economic perspective that the pros and… Read more »
Nice bit of change spent just to be the nominee of GOP. quite the investment. What is the expected profit on the investment. Campaign finance[edit] This is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it was reported to Federal Election Committee and released on April 21, 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure-only committees, also called PACs and SuperPACs. Several such groups normally support each candidate but the numbers in the table are a total of all of them, meaning that a group of committees can be shown as technically insolvent even though it is not the case… Read more »
STAFF NEWS & ANALYSIS
First Tea Party, Now Trump: Battle Against Globalization Gains Strength
By Daily Bell Staff – May 06, 2016
“Indeed this conflict will likely present itself ever-more powerfully throughout the 21st century. It is the conflict between globalism and freedom.”
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/first-tea-party-now-trump-battle-against-globalization-gains-strength/
The Brexit is also a manifestation of anti globalist forces.
The Reason that the Irish State is doing the Bidding of “Brussels” to try to keep the U.K. in the E.U. is that the “Real Government” / “Unofficial Government” / “Deep State” of the Irish State [ ‘Garrison “Irish State” of the E.U.’ ] are in the main “Freemasons” ; And, the Freemasons have a long-standing plan to have a singular State encompassing all of Europe & beyond. Even the British Freemasonry are beholden to delivering on that plan. However, a chunk of British Freemasonry are hostile to their Continental Brethren running the project ; These British Freemasons are for… Read more »
Interesting from http://www.henrymakow.com ;
http://henrymakow.com/2016/05/Expat-Returns-to-an-England.html
Ah well, who else would be against good-sense AND nationalism other than u know who ?
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/278083-anti-defamation-league-wants-trump-to-ditch-new-slogan
Can something really be “15-times smaller”? What is wrong with the old “1/15” or “one-fifteenth”?
In terms of the body of this article is anyone really suggesting the the EU would want to do anything other than put the UK in the same bracket as Norway, Iceland and Switzerland? The notion that the EU would want to strike back against the democratic decision of a former member, and thereby hurt itself, seems quite far fetched. It’s not like they have slaves.
Having read a lot of posts it strikes me that the EU won’t mind a Brexit too much so long as it’s seen as a member of the family moving out rather than a a breakup.
In fact it may well suit some of the EU member
states because, in hindsight of course, they can say actually maybe Britain had a good argument on some of their concerns.
Politicians are nothing if not me feiners.
Any other news on the Iceland jubilee
http://www.disclose.tv/news/iceland_forgives_entire_population_its_debt_total_us_media_blackout/127307
Wildfires raging in Alberta reminds me again of the economy. Not the fact of the disaster for the city of fort McMurray, the 88,000 people evacuated, the shut down of a total industry, or the scope and expanding size of the fire. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/how-the-fort-mcmurray-fire-sizes-up-in-other-canadian-cities/67457 It is the fact it is out of control and no matter what is tried to contain it, it will have to run its course and burn itself out, or be put out by a change in the weather. So why the scope of the fire and the fact it is out of control? Nobody I have… Read more »
Here is a graphic showing the extent of the FRAUD of the Fractional Reserve Banking System as propagated by the central banking system.
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/infographic-london-gold-market/
I learned an awful lot from reading this website over the years. Thanks David! The comments section was always interesting I live in the UK now, battling hard for a #BREXIT The EU is a Tyranny and I believe those in the UK will send the Eurocrats/Technocrats/Kleptocrats packing in a few weeks time I do recommend a book by Daniel Hannan MEP called Why Vote Leave. It’s not just a book to be read by those voting in the UK referendum, but by all Europeans suffering until EU / Goldman Sachs ever increasing authoritarian rule Ireland should get out now… Read more »
[…] of the British people on 23 June will surely be final. Having said that, trusted Irish economist, David McWilliams maintains that after an initial wobble the Uk will fair well. As an economic giant in its own […]