Dublin property investors had better hope that Brexit happens soon.
They should also hope that it’s not just a ‘hard’ Brexit, but a granite Brexit — a Brexit that’s as hard as possible. They should be betting on the buffoonery of Boris Johnson, down on both knees praying for a massive barney between Davis and Barnier. A granite Brexit might prompt the migration of hundreds of corporate refugees from isolated London to the freewheeling safe haven of Dublin. If Brexit doesn’t drive a massive uptake in demand for prime property, we are in for a massive wobble in our inflated commercial property market.
Before we remind ourselves how this property story goes, let’s have a look at the facts: the glossy brochures are back, stockbrokers are packaging all sorts of property-related products to “investors”, the price of ad space in the property porn sections of the press is surging and of course the skyline is full of cranes and Armagh flags.
CBRE – a property-flogging outfit – tells us there are currently 31 office schemes under construction in Dublin, which is more than 380,000sqm in the pipeline. They tell us that more than 30% of this stock is already let. It also gushes that 44% of the office stock due for completion before the end of this year has already been pre-let. Meanwhile, agents tell us that prime office rents in the Dublin market stand at approximately €673 sqm.
It looks like things couldn’t be healthier.
Office take-up in Dublin surged 101,000sqm in the past three months, bringing total take-up in the first half of this year to more than 150,000 sqm. That’s a lot of space. 81 individual large office lettings were signed in Dublin since March (45 to Irish companies; 18 to US firms and 11 to the Brits). This is more than double the figure for the period from January to March.
The market is tight, hence all the building. The vacancy rate in the city centre is only 4.5% and yields for investors are stable at 4.6%. This is only because rents have been surging to keep up with the soaring prices.
Before we get carried away, remember rents are a cost and Ireland is competing with other European countries, so let’s compare our prices, not with some of Europe’s poorest countries, but why not with its richest, Germany? This will give a bit of perspective.
Comparing our prices with similar rents in Germany, we see that Dublin is already massively more expensive. Prime rents in Frankfurt are €474 sqm per annum. Remember Dublin is charging €673 sqm. The difference — €199 per annum — means that Dublin is 42% more expensive than Germany’s most expensive city. Once you start comparing other German cities, the extent of Ireland’s commercial property rip-off becomes more evident. Take Munich, capital city of Germany’s richest province Bavaria. Prime rents in Munich are €420 sqm per annum. In Hamburg, Germany’s sophisticated northern powerhouse, prime rents are €312 sqm per annum, while in Dusseldorf, the cross-road of Europe, prime real estate will set you back €318 sqm per annum – less than half of what it costs you in Dublin.
In all German markets, vacancy rates are higher so that means there’s much more choice.
When the price of something as basic as office space is profoundly more expensive in a country that has a much lower economic footprint, much smaller population and less rich capital base, you should worry.
The rebound in the Dublin commercial property market has been significant; just look at the chart below.
Figure 1 Dublin Office Rent by Building Type (2009 = 100)
But now we have a problem: what is driving prices?
We know that the foreigners bought up huge amounts of Irish commercial property from NAMA, who themselves had bought it from bust Irish banks and developers. So the foreigners got in early. Now they are flogging their portfolios as they’ve had their fun and have no long-term ambition to be Irish landlords.
So who are they selling to?
This is where Paddy comes back into the picture having been out of the loop since 2008/9.
Paddy has not been in the market for ages, but now is clambering to get in. Irish pension funds are now buying expensive property from the newly minted foreign investors. Now here is a double dilemma for Ireland. If Irish pension funds have bought expensively, they have a vested interest in keeping rents high because if rents were to fall, their yield would fall and the value of the pensions under management would fall too.
So Irish pension funds are going to keep rents up, keeping Dublin’s rents between 40% and 50% more expensive than similar rents in Germany.
Do you see what is happening here? Irish retirees who are out of the workforce will have their pensions maintained by exorbitantly high rents in Dublin. Now who pays the price for this? Well we could content ourselves that it’s the businesses that will have to pay this rent. But that’s not how the world works.
Businesses allocate expenses and the two largest expenses are wages and rents. So if rents are higher than anywhere else, wages have to be lower in order to make the investment decision to come to Ireland worthwhile.
So who pays the price of exorbitant rents? Irish workers in the fancy offices do via lower wages than would otherwise be the case!
And what’s the social impact of this?
Well, it can be seen in the crisis in housing for young people and the huge increases in commuting we are seeing as these youngish workers have to live miles away from their work to afford housing — not just because the houses are so expensive, but because their wages are lower than they would otherwise be, at the same time as rents are driven up!
Meanwhile the foreign investors have got out with their profit and the Irish are left thinking they can get rich by selling Ireland to each other.
Wait, haven’t we seen this before? Maybe Brexit will ensure a happy ending this time?
Subscribe.
What is the meaning of the Armagh flags reference?
BOOM!? Followed by yet another ‘bust’! But, of course the economic conditions prevailing in Ireland are exceptional and this cannot be 2007 all over again?!A prophet in his own time?!
Are house prices a lot cheaper outside Dublin? Serious question – I wouldn’t know.
It will be a hard granite Brexit because Brussels wants no deal but rather a punishment strategy that discourages others from leaving.
Ireland faced with WTO tariff rates on our trade with the UK and a hard border will have no choice but to Eirexit.
Official Ireland paid in full by Brussels using UK contribution recycling by the way had better get their plan B ready else Sinn Fein will.
I believe there’s a fair chance that brexit is not going to happen. Paddy power offering 6/5 on uk still in eu by early 2019. Worth a try?
Peter Schiff on the real state of the US economy. Everything has been already stated on this blog but Peter Schiff puts it in a comprehensive 32 minute package.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKYmjGW6Gsc
Not to be missed by any thinking person.
Enough “Office-Spaces” for the Brethern is one thing. . But, surely there is an even bigger shortage for to serve ’em ; NOT ENOUGH F R E E M A S O N LODGES Because, the Irish establishment are filling them to the rafters. . . And, here, get the latest from Jude Duffy on the City of London et all “F R E E M A S O N F..KERS”* * Ref. Then serving Taoiseach Mr. Brian Cowan shouting across the Dail at Fine GAYel Front Bench & a good bet to think the same he would be about… Read more »
If the REA data in the chart are more recent (or more accurate, or both) than DAFT data I gave, then this would lead us to a very noteworthy conclusion: that the house prices in the province are t u m b l i n g (i.e. DAFT gave the average price of a house in Leitrim as €123,884, while REA gives €93,000).
The difference might also be explained by a different methodology – maybe DAFT gives the price advertised, and REA gives the price for which the houses sold?
Brexit is Brexit
What a novel sort of exit
Remainiacs try to sexit
But cross the Bridge of Sighs
Brexit is Brexit
Whatever cometh nexit
Heraclitus suggests Grexit
Merkel’s eaten all the pies
Brexit is Brexit
Le Pen may writeth fecksit
Orbanistic orgasmestic
And wave their sad goodbyes
How can “exile” endure if most of the world’s ahem ahem “countries” adopt “the Phoenix” ?
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http://expandourmind.com/2017/07/20/rothschild-prediction-1988-global-currency-phoenix-start-2018/
I cannot believe that the Irish would be that stupid i.e. to start buying back office developments from vulture funds (ensuring their profits) on the basis that these will be good investments when future demand arises as companies leave Britain looking for a new home because of Brexit. This is happening in parallel with other Irish developers building offices for the same reasons. “Field of dreams” stuff. “If you build it they will come”. If I was moving out of the financial district of London because of Brexit I would be heading for Frankfurt end of story. This is the… Read more »
@ Grzegorz, . Further to my recent posting of “Oh, he so good” Olaf Palme [ And, it appears conclusive that Palme was some beut ], Aanirfan.blogspot.com gives follow-through on Henry Makow’s article that I quoted from ; As u should recall, Palme’s close & extended family have been so-called Communist / One-Government for World spooks & plotters, & indeed 1 of them conspired against Ireland. . Anyway, what did I spot but a Poland connection ; And, of course, I always expect that some Irish State civil SERPENTS get up to the same nasty stuff in foreign lands. Foreign… Read more »
More evidence that there is already World Government i.e. The Big Boss Countries co-operate with each other under the Chairmanship of The Rotschilds / Bank of International Settlements > Luciferianism . The Big Boss Countries then return to their respective turfs for to duel within the scope of : . x] that which is pleasing to their populace . AND . y] what is reasonable vis-a-vis their pacts with the other Big Boss Countries under said Chairmanship . AND THE MOST DECISIVE FACTOR OF ALL . z] that which is acceptable, or to be more decisive, that which is agreeable… Read more »
This American made a quite good short video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmHjuBvvZZw
I’d say that the most important one is drinking in public in big towns (followed by being late) – yep: that will get you arrested immediately, except of course for rock concerts or New Year’s Eve.
“Prosim” is actually in Czech :-), but as we really like Czechs, it doesn’t matter ;-)
P.S. Did you know that Eric Trump’s – who is in Doonberg, Co Clare today – grandmother lives in the Czech Republic?
We’ve had a bit of boom in articles from DMcW lately, one wonders when the crash is coming.
Inflation, stagflation and now shrinkflation. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/24/shrinkflation-has-hit-2500-consumer-products-past-five-years/ What ever way it is presented it costs more. Cost of living increases are higher than government stats. An hours worth of labour can be exchanged for only 45% of the amount of goods it obtained in 1970. In other word, your standard of living is less than half what it was in one lifetime of work. That is it has dropped by a mere 1.53% per annum. Another big lie told us is that 2% inflation is good. The real news is that the cost of living doubles every 36 years at that… Read more »
https://spectator.org/statisms-violent-wages/?utm_source=American+Spectator+Emails&utm_campaign=a7ec6bcc92-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_797a38d487-a7ec6bcc92-104365713
“”Predictably, our politics and public life have become meaner, uglier, and now violent. How do we get back what has been lost?””
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/12-year-olds-can-get-abortions-in-ontario-without-parental-knowledge
http://www.prochoiceactionnetwork-canada.org/abortioninfo/teens.shtml
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/child-abuse-the-difference-between-gender-identity-and-sex-change-in-children/
Children in North america deny parental rights and responsibilities.
It is a further extension of the attempt to destroy western society.
The migration invasion was planned 15 years ago or more.
The Plan
Encourage a low birthrate in western society. Abortion, birth control etc.
Create a chaos. War in North Africa and Middle East.
Unleash the invasion.
Infiltrate the morals and institutions of the West.
Ghettoize the Western countries
Further the chaos, Implement sharia law and Western guilt complex.
Gut the Western Economies.
Take over the western Industrial (used to be industrial) Economies
Implement One world government.
“”The state cannot meet its budget because the tax base has shrunk. The economy has shrunk and so has the money supply, triggered by the 2008 banking crisis. Jobs were lost, homes were foreclosed on, and businesses and people quit borrowing, either because they were “all borrowed up” and could not go further into debt or, in the case of businesses, because they did not have sufficient customer demand to warrant business expansion. And today, virtually the entire circulating money supply is created when banks make loans When loans are paid down and new loans are not taken out, the… Read more »
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IN THE BACKGROUND BECAUSE OF THE AGENDA OF “THE DREADFUL FEW” — ROTHSCHILDs & their agents, e.g. George Soros — AGAINST THE SONS OF JAPHETH / EUROPEANS And, says I even though I am of Shem . . Ref. HUMAN POPULATIONS . CONSIDER THIS ; . Results for Google.com search terms ; . present population of Europe AND present population of EU . Note ; Both projected to fall dramatically — even with continued influxes from Africa & Asia [ If it so is believable that such influxes will NOT ( ahem, ahem, ahem ) actually rocket the population in… Read more »
THE SPECIAL ONES ARE REVVING UP THEIR GREED TO GET THAT TERRITORY THEY ALREADY DECIDED IS TO BE WITHIN ‘GREATER ISRAEL’ : vis. West-Bank & Gaza Syria [ incl. The Golan Heights ; Irish Army as UN peACe-keepers are in that Israeili-occupied peIce of Syria Lebanon Saudi Arabia ; Major portion of Egypt ; Crucial portion of [ incl. Nile river & Suez Canal ] Iraq ; Vast major portion of Iran ; Major portion of Turkey ; Major portion of Cyprus ; I think so . THIS IS THE VERY LATEST KNOWN OFFENSIVE BY THEM : AND, IT BODES… Read more »
CNN breaking news. Putin has ties to Russia!!
http://files.constantcontact.com/d87d10e6001/9885e90e-3b38-4490-847f-8a4b9a5c90f6.jpg
Our Debt based banking system causes Debt to be proclaimed as an asset. The central bank creates money from nothing. It then lends at interest to the commercial banks. The commercial banks then store this loan as a reserve. Based on the reserve (debt owed to the central bank) it then creates 10, 20, 30 times more money which is created from nothing and then loaned into the economy. As the reserve currency the USD is used as reserves by more banks, countries, etc than any other currency. Thus the world monetary system is precariously balanced on the knife edge… Read more »
Hallo from Dusseldorf! Here are the Brexit votes for David McWalliam’s latest remix of his greatest hits: Nil punts…. 180! I’m on the banks of the Rhine for 8 days & nights working on my first and only album with some friends in the electronic musik-arbeiter scene here. To compare Dublin to Dusseldorf is kind of comical but also slightly puke-inducing. Comparing Altstadt to Temple Bar is just ridiculous. I was watching telly earlier & yer man Bono was droning on about Afrika, innit whilst schmoozing Macron…hasn’t he realised the EU CAP is the biggest single reason why Africans have… Read more »
You heard it here. “Human emissions of carbon dioxide have saved life on Earth from inevitable starvation and extinction due to lack of CO2”. To use the analogy of the Atomic Clock, if the Earth were 24 hours old we were at 38 seconds to midnight when we reversed the trend towards the End Times. If that isn’t good news I don’t know what is. You don’t get to stave off Armageddon every day.— Dr.Patrick Moore
IPCC ridiculed by Dr Patrick Moore. And rightly so I might add! :)
Here is the 10 minute read of the speech.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/15/greenpeace-founder-delivers-powerful-annual-lecture-praises-carbon-dioxide-full-text/
HEADING ; . Poland in Crisis Globalist Traitors Battle Nationalists . July 25, 2017 . 4920.jpg Soros’ useful idiots take to the streets) . OBSERVATION BY TRUTHIST ; Most of the women in this photo look like older political lesbians. . . PREFACE ; . We’re in a life-and-death struggle for the future of the human race between Communists (satanist, globalists,”liberals”) and nationalists. . As in America, globalists in Poland are resorting to extreme behavior to intimidate their opponents. In the article below a Polish reader conveys the urgency of the situation. . Latest! Polish President vetoes law to purge… Read more »
OF COURSE, THE MAIN REASON THAT THE USA ADMINISTRATIONS [ DEMOCRAT PARTY + REPUBLICAN PARTY ] HATE SYRIA IS BECAUSE THEY ARE TOLD TO DO SO BY “THE DREADFUL FEW”
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Nonetheless, here is a very informative + useful graphic ;
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Alerts from former Congress-man AND the peoples choice & he who would have been the President of USA instead of O’Bomber / O’Bummer Obama but for conspiracy of Republican Party + the “Prostitutes-AND-Client”* Main-stream Media [ MSM ] of the “Client-AND-Prostitute”** Dreadful Few ; . Dr. Ron Paul . * & ** Main-stream Media / MSM & The Dreadful Few are one-&-same To say that the MSM is a Presstitute is like saying that the Knife cuts its own Self. MSM shares same egrogore as The Dreadful Few Yeah, trace it to the mother. . . Ron Paul Liberty Report… Read more »
Latest from THE F R E E M A S O N COURT SYSTEM of Irish State against an owner [ as is every Indigenous Citizen of Ireland ] of the Irish State ; . . about 10 hours ago Wed, Jul 26, 2017 . . HEADING ; . Ben Gilroy of Direct Democracy Ireland to be given community service . . SUB-HEADING ; . High Court judge said it will be imposed for admitted criminal contempt subject to report from probation officer . . By Mary Carolan . . BLURB UNDER PHOTO ; . Mr Justice Brian McGovern said,… Read more »
Germany has lower rent, even in expensive cities like Munich or Hamburg. Though that does not mean that anybody would want to live in Hamburg. Or Dusseldorf for that matter. Or Frankfurt – a city that raised boring to defining characteristic. BoJo is NOT a buffoon, contrary to the now established consensus of the Irish establishment. However, Leo the Chancer was out of his dept runnning Health. And that was the only area about which he had any background knowledge. Completey out of his depth. Eventually, he resorted to sounding like an opposition TD – complaining about the lack of… Read more »
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A granite Brexit might prompt the migration of hundreds of corporate refugees from isolated London to the freewheeling safe haven of Dublin.
]
London is NOT isolated.
And Dublin is NOT at the heart of the nEU Empire. It happens to be the location of Lichtenstein on the Liffey.
The real problem for Dublin is that Ireland has NO SOVEREIGNTY.
In other words, the better connected locations like Frankfurt and Amsterdam are already able to tie us down from competing.
Gripes, Rants and Hypocrisy. 1 The Irish CB is to set aside €165m thus year to cover losses on QE. Meanwhile NAMA, another government agancy made a €37m profit in the first qtr with a bit of a fanfare. There’s a year’s supply of hypocrisy in item 1. 2. Water leaks in Louth and anywhere else. Mr local politicians all jumping up and down about the this disgraceful state of affairs. Local politicians who sat on County Councils for many years doing nothing about the state of the water system. A bunch of hypocrits with short memories for their own… Read more »
BEWARE OF “EDUCATION … EDUCATION … EDUCATION” MANTRA ! . THE EDUCATION SECTOR IS A RACKET ! TRUTHIST CONTENDS THAT Government Mickey-MEHOLE FACILITATED-MOUSE so-called Colleges of Further Education & PLC Colleges & VTOS Colleges, or whatever aul bolloxy musical-chairs name at any time that these dens of educational iniquity boast, are even more corrupt than FAS [ FARCE ] –> SOLAS ; At least there is much less likelihood of Psychological Abuse from FAS Trainers closing the ranks to be a cabal than is so common with the College C..nts who make up the main of what were failed VEC… Read more »
PROPORTIONALLY AND “LACK” OF WORTHY PERFORMANCE WISE AND SHEER MALICIOUSNESS, IRISH STATE IS ARGUABLY WORSE THAN DETROIT “COZY SHOP” FOR CIVIL / PUBLIC SERPENTS ;
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Anyway, here are revelations the likes are hidden from u about Irish State.
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HEADING ;
Why Illinois Is In Trouble – 63,000 Public Employees With $100,000+ Salaries Cost Taxpayers $10B
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https://nalert.blogspot.ca/2017/07/blog-post_26.html
And there off and running in the ” let’s soften the mugs up for an interest rate rise later in the year” DERBY.
The wise ones ( who missed the crash) have just returned from the roof of the CB where they were counting seagulls on Dollymount strand ……….
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/central-bank-revises-economic-forecast-upwards-as-growth-of-45pc-expected-in-2017-35976606.html
THE DREADFUL FEW ARE DOING THE IRISH NATION “GREEK-STYLE” TOO ;
And, they now got Varadakar as their Chief Ass-set chum.
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http://www.mintpressnews.com/greece-a-basket-case-study-in-savage-globalization/230221/
Foundation of former, & now deceased, Prime Minister of Canada Mr. Pierre Trudeau & who is ? — but some think Fidel Castro impregnated Mrs. Trudeau when she went on groupie tour of world with Rolling Stones & to Cuba inter alia whilst she was married to Pierre — of recent high profile official state visitor to Irish State Mr. Justin Trudeau [ only recently in office in his 1st term as Prime Minister of Canada ], well … it boasts a widely known PEDOPHILE SYMBOL on its Page 3.
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http://www.trudeaufoundation.ca/sites/default/files/petf2016_english.pdf
EWE ARE FAMILIAR WITH THE QUESTION ;
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“WHAT DID THE ROMANS EVER DO FOR US ?’
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BUT, EWE WOULD BE THE BETTER TO ASK ;
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‘WHAT DID “THE CITY” / “THE CROWN” / “THE MONEY-CHANGERS” / “THE DREADFUL FEW” DO TO US, THE IRISH NATION ?’
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And, here is some of the poignant truth finally bursting forth ;
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https://unifiedserenity.wordpress.com/2013/07/15/white-slaves-in-america-outnumbered-black-slaves-bet-you-didnt-know-that-did-you/
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https://americancivilwar.com/authors/black_slaveowners.htm
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The Dreadful Few’s proxy USA Empire, & the Media of The Dreadful Few there
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If u can, print this poster as A0 size Poster at some special print shop, & then frame it, & hang it as prominent exhibit on wall of ur [ former ? 8-) ] TV room.
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https://brianmlucey.wordpress.com/2017/07/28/harden-this-border-so/
“The City” / “The Crown” of London, UK conspired to do this too to : . . 1. Irish-Americans ; Catholic, & Atheist ; e.g. Firemen, & Police . 2. Other whatever”-Amerericans . . AND, OF COURSE AS SO-CALLED “JUSTIFIABLE” + VENGEANCE ON THE SO-CALLED PERPETRATORS . 3. Arabs ; Muslim, & Christian [ incl. Catholic, Orthodox ] ; Immediately “Iraqis in … Iraq” . + . 4. “Afghans in … Afghanistan” . . HEADING ; 9/11 Simplified . SUB-HEADING ; Yes, Virginia, there really were hijackers on the 9/11 planes But, not the ones we were told . (Updated… Read more »
USEFUL EVIDENCE TO FIND THE DEFENDANTS “NOT” GUILTY ; Why, none other than above Post submitted by Truthist on July 25, 2017 at 3:04 am . Ref. HUMAN POPULATIONS . 1.1 E.U population ; 510 million incl. large %s of : assimilated Non-Europeans & increasingly large %s of non-assimilated Non-Europeans . & . 1.2 Europe as a whole ; 738 million incl. the non-EU parts which all together includes only very small %s of assimilated Non-Europeans & only tiny %s of non-assimilated Non-Europeans . AGAINST . 2. projected populations of : . 2.1 Democratic Republic of Congo Year 2050 ;… Read more »
We Irish are like stones David, unadaptable, watching our young leave our rocky shores, stony faced…since 1847. Why are we so slow to learn? When you talk of commercial property in Ireland, you only mention Dublin. When you talk of commercial property in Germany you talk of Frankfurt, Munich, Hamburg, Dusseldorf. And therein lies the problem. We are not thinking Ireland, we are only thinking Dublin. We are underutilising our assets – our young who we export on the hoof and our land which is mostly empty. We need to spread the wealth throughout the country, lower our costs, increase… Read more »
“COMEDY INTERLUDE” FOR SUCH POSTERS AS ME WHO HAS BEEN MANY TIMES “HOMELESS” & ALSO “HOMELESS + ROOFLESS” DUE TO VERY SERIOUS CORRUPTION BY THE IRISH STATE & / OR PRIVATE PERSONS ; . . HEADING ; The Susan Denham way: low-key, principled and effective 8-) SUB-HEADINGK ; Analysis: The outgoing Chief Justice has reached the end of a remarkable career by Ruadhán Mac Cormaic Susan Denham made her final appearance on the Supreme Court bench on Friday. When, in December 1992, Susan Denham became the first woman to be appointed to the Supreme Court, it was a culture shock… Read more »
SHEER EVIL as The Dreadful Few prime their proxy The USA to start WW 3 with … Russia
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HEADING ;
‘Weaponizing viruses’?
US Air Force places ad for bio samples from Russians
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Published time: 28 Jul, 2017
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https://www.rt.com/usa/397883-us-airforce-russian-rna-sample-tender/
Another avenue of attack on the Western way of life and culture. How is your sperm count?
https://needtoknow.news/2017/07/sperm-levels-western-men-fallen-50-past-40-years-trend-continues/
[…] that Irish property investors must be praying for not just a hard Brexit, but a granite one. “If Brexit doesn’t drive a massive uptake in demand, we are in for a massive wobble in our infl…,” he wrote online last […]