I’ve just had a surreal moment in the Centra at Donegal Square, Belfast, right opposite the City Hall. Blaring on the radio was The Police’s ‘Invisible Sun’. The Polish shop assistant was oblivious, but think about it: this is a song penned in 1981 by Sting about the Hunger Strikers, the conflict in the North and the nihilism of the Troubles. Those dark days are very far from the sunny Belfast I am strolling around today. While it’s no Dublin, the transformation is truly extraordinary. In the same way as Northerners, particularly unionists, should travel South more often to see that we don’t bite, we Southerners should also head North, to see what has been achieved here. It’s only two hours from Dublin and when you think of the carnage of the 1960s, ’70s, ’80s and 1990s, the results of (an often difficult) peace are worth savouring.
I’m up in Belfast to take part in a panel discussion on the Brexit poll, which is in St Mary’s University on the Falls Road. For a variety of reasons, I’m more familiar with the other side of town, so a trip up the Falls should be interesting. Unfortunately, or maybe predictably, it appears that the Brexit debate has more or less split the North on religious lines again. True, the diminutive Ulster Unionist Party is grudgingly pro-Remain, but the main unionist political tribe, the DUP, is deep Brexit and the nationalists are flying the star-spangled EU banner.
It’s just the way it is up here. Things break down religiously. Billy says black, Seamie says white. Alison says bacon, Mairead says rashers. There are all sorts of little tells that give you away.
Sigmund Freud – a man who thought that psychology was wasted on the Irish – described this tribal search for bizarre, infinitesimal micro-distinctions as the “narcissism of small differences”. When the differences between two groups are so small to the untrained eye, those tiny ones that exist are elevated by either side as evidence of a profound distinction. When you come up North, the narcissism of small differences is flamboyantly on display. You see the same sort of thing in the Balkans.
In fact, speaking of the Balkans, doesn’t British Prime Minister David Cameron remind you of an Ottoman Pasha trying desperately to keep the warring factions together? He is the last of the Ottomans. In the end, the poor Ottomans couldn’t hold the warring tribes together, leading to what the British pejoratively described as “Balkanisation”. Interestingly, are we now we are seeing the Balkanisation of Britain?
In England, you have anti-European, pro-British, English nationalists ahead in the polls. In Scotland, you have anti-English, pro-European, Scottish nationalists firmly in power. In Wales, you have anti-English, kind of pro-European nationalists driving their own Brexit agenda. Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, you have the anti-each other, whatever you’re having yourself, British and Irish nationalists pulling in opposite directions. Is it any wonder that Pasha Cameron looks jaded? Who is going to hold it all together?
History tells us that one thing is clear: when you dilute the glue that bonds nations together, you do it at your peril. Consider what could happen to Northern Ireland in the coming years.
The DUP is campaigning for Brexit, but it should be careful what it wishes for because Brexit may loosen the UK so much that the DUP could be signing its own death warrant. Here is the possible scenario that could unfold if there’s a break-up of the UK.
The English lead the British out of Europe. The Scottish react by going to the polls again, wanting to stay in Europe. They have to leave the UK to stay in the EU, and by a small margin they vote to stay in Europe but leave the English. Not unfeasible.
The rump UK becomes an entity involving a Eurosceptic England, a modestly pro-European but compliant Wales and an ever-divided Northern Ireland. However, it is a Northern Ireland shorn of its fraternal brothers, the Scots, in a union with the ambivalent English. There has never been the same cultural affinity between the English and the Northern unionists.
The Shinners then go for a border poll, triggered by the Scots leaving the UK. At the moment, there is still a majority for NI to remain in the rump UK, but the focus of attention on NI prompts an ambivalent England to question this. If they can have a UK without the much more significant Scots, the English will ask why they should bother with these punters in Ireland, who they have less and less in common with?
Economically, the Union has been a disaster for all the people of NI.
If we go back to 1920, 80pc of the industrial output of the entire island of Ireland came from the three counties centred on Belfast. This was where all Irish industry was. It was industrial and innovative; northern entrepreneurs and inventors were at the forefront of industrial innovation. By 1911, Belfast was the biggest city in Ireland, with a population of close to 400,000, which was growing rapidly. It was by far the richest part of the island.
Fast-forward to now and the collapse of the once-dynamic Northern economy versus that of the Republic is shocking. Having been a fraction of the North’s at independence, the Republic’s industrial output is now 10 times greater than that of Northern Ireland. Exports from the Republic are €89bn while from the North, exports are a paltry €6bn. This obviously reflects the presence of multinationals, but it also underscores just how far ahead the Republic’s industrial base is.
The total size of the Republic’s economy is now four times that of the North, even though the labour force is not even two and a half times bigger. In terms of income per head, the Republic is now almost twice as rich per person as the North. The average income per head in the Republic is €39,873, while it languishes at €23,700 up North. The differing fortunes of North and South can be easily seen in the fact that, having been smaller than Belfast at the time of partition, the population of the greater Dublin area is now almost three times bigger than the greater Belfast metropolitan region.
Even the perennial deficit which funds NI, the £7bn annual subvention, is no more than 5pc of Irish GDP and would obviously would be smaller if both economies were conjoined.
Maybe the DUP’s best long-term strategy is an alliance with middle-ground, I’m-all-right-Jack Southerners who wouldn’t contemplate union with Northern nationalists. Conor Cruise O’Brien once said the last great battle of unionism would be with the English, not the Irish. Could it also be the case that the last great battle of Northern nationalists will not be with England, but with Ireland? Interesting times lie ahead.
Not sure you can put the North’s industrial/economic decline down to “leaving Ireland” & sticking with the Union. Other great British industrial centres like Manchester and Glasgow have also suffered the deindustrialisation fate as the globalist race to the bottom disembowelled that part of the economy. Also, we earn more but their cost of living is way less in terms of food, bills, rent & other essentials so its not really a fair overall comparison.
There is no doubt that you are (bravely) going into the belly of the beast at St. Mary’s. It’s permanent Chair is the serving Bishop of Down and Connor, ex-officio for God’s sake!. Nothing left to chance there. The crozier is firmly planted on the Falls Road and will remain there. It would be nice to see a recording of this debate on YouTube if you could arrange it. It sounds from your piece for the Indo yesterday that you will be thinking in terms of ”the last great battle of Northern nationalists will not be with England, but with… Read more »
Leaving the “United Irelabd” agenda aside.
Pasha Cameron and the Freud reference to small differences
Thatcher Reagon Bush and Bertie thrived physically on power – got off on it basically.
Cameron Obama on the other hand have aged while in power.
WHY the difference. What does it tell us about the individual.
Personally I think Cameron and Obama care more for all their citizens, they are naturally inclusive.
Now look at Trump and Clinton – Who has thrived the most during the primaries.
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There was a similar article a few weeks back. But this is even more nonsensical than that. The article also reminds me of an article about the Carribean which ended on a upbeat comment about Denis O’Brien’s mobile company. This article will preumably be syndicated to the Belfast Telegraph. And as such it will send a signal to the DUP, don’t fight the new Imperial racket. Because the Belfast Telegraph is part of Indo News Media. And INM is pro-centre right. And the EU is currently dominated by the centre right. And let’s be honest here – the Euro centre… Read more »
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Anyone voting on the one hand for independence from Britain, as Scotland may do, and on the other to join Europe suffers from delusions all round. It is totally irrational.
The RoI cannot afford to prop up NI, in the standard of subsidy, with which NI is accustomed. And it definitly cannot do so, whilst bailing out Merkel’s banks. The barrier to a united Ireland, is the current EU bailout of the bondholders program. And the garrison enforcing that is the pro-Brussels element in Irish politics. But I don’t see SF doing anything about that. In fact SF have completely dropped the subject. The Union with Britain did not ruin NI. It prevented NI from meeting the consequences of being a rust belt region. NI failed to adapt. Pretending it… Read more »
Having watched the Loughinisland massacre families’ press conference today exposing British Government collusion in sectarian murders, I am even more convinced than ever that a Brexit from Europe would lead to a Brexit from Ireland and that that would liberate Ireland from the most lethal British import of all, its religious sectarianism and virulent anti-Catholicism. I really hope they leave and bring the Catholic bishops, who draw their power from British-inspired anti-Catholicism, with them. We need an all-Ireland republic with American-style separation of church and state with an emphasis on the rule of law, not on religion. The most prominent… Read more »
Perhaps a better starting point concerning the future of NI, is what is in the interests of the people there, and not merely what will prevent embarrassment being incurred in Brussels. The best route to a solution in NI, might be to follow the Swiss model, and have more democracy instead of “more Europe” (which in recent years has not meant more democracy). If anything will not solve the NI problem, it is more control from Brussels. In many ways the powerlessness that is felt on the streets of NI, has already produced some tough results. More powerlessness is not… Read more »
I think religion plays the role that skin colour did in all the other capitalist colonies. It was the only way of distinguishing the colonizers and the colonized.
Religion in NI, is merely a moral justification of convenience that is worn on the surface, to deflect from something more troubling.
Jesus of Nazareth, is nowhere to be seen, when both sides are indulging in spite for one another. They don’t take Jesus of Nazareth seriously. At least, not based on the evidence of their actions.
Here is something that never gets discussed. The importance of class in society in NI. NI is obsessed with class. But because of our consumerist oriented media, there is no discussion about this.
Where is the evidence Freud said that about the Irish? The same reference was made in the movie ‘The Departed’ but no valid evidence supports it?
Alright, here is a subject that needs to be talked about.
And….it is explosive.
Who owns the development land on the outskirts of Dublin that is zoned for residential development ?
I mean surely, this should be available information.
It cannot be a big secret can it ?
Because this is a big issue, with respect to the housing crisis.
Alan Kelly seems to be unhappy with whoever owns that zoned space.
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The real problem we all have is EGO.
The EU non elected politicians are not interested in our opinion, they know better.
Our politicians suffer from the same malaise.
The citizens suffer from similar delusions of granduer.
The lack of self awareness is truly frightening.
It’s not just the emporer who is wearing no clothes.
Bildeberg meeting going on in Dresden at the moment where Brexit is one of the main topics. According to this journalist Brexit will not be allowed as the EU is originally a Bilderberg concept and these people hold the real power. Very interesting video from a couple of real journalists who are not afraid to investigate these power brokers. By the way just two Irish attendees Michael Noonan and Michael O Leary. Peter Sutherland is part of their “steering committee” but he doesn’t seem to be there this year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2S7ZdJ3_Pjs
Always relevant to any DMW Blog is stuff about the ongoing Housing Crisis. And, the following “Personality” is someone with has had an intriguing involvement with the North East of our Country / Island in the capacity of the very controversial The Workers Party & is long-time deeply up to his neck in Quangos — including Housing ; It being none other than the Quango Whore himself ; Mr. Des Geraghty I spotted an article on Blue Shirt rag “The Irish Independent” yesterday penned by Comrade Geraghty about Housing ; http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/housing-isnt-the-answer-our-focus-should-be-on-homes-34783807.html And, here is the Google.com result page for search… Read more »
Sometimes it takes a while for the penny to drop. Usually the connection you’re missing is in full view. The penny in this case is the “Bail In” legislation. Would I be right in thinking that if Deutche Bank and it’s derivatives went belly up then pretty much all EU banks would activate the Bail In. The bit that dropped tho is WHEN will DB go? The answer is so obvious. When all (or all the important) countries have passed their Bail In legislation. At this point in time it would be interesting to know which countries are leading the… Read more »
And now that I think about it.
If Brexit were to happen and they have there own derivative problem what could the consequences be.
Maybe that’s why Cameron hands are a bit sweaty looking.
Bottom line here.
Bail In legislation wouldn’t be happening if someone wasn’t seriously worried about something.
So who is pushing/driving this legislation?
Maybe David you could give us some insights.
SOON please make it SOON.
Trump going mainstream!!?? Even though he was right in the first place.
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/too-bad-trump-backs-down-on-public-accusations-of-judicial-bias/
Re bail in – How would post office prize bonds be treated.
I have some governments four year savings bond coming due how would a bail in affect them if I reinvest .
Any thoughts.
Ta in advance.
Grzegorz, Further to ur very interesting thoughts about conspiracy theorism [ I just made up this word apparently 8-) ] in which u mention Gehlen, I found the following from http://www.aanirfan.blogspot.com which u may wish to peruse ; Important to state that whilst I often read Aanirfan & its predecessor Angirfan — both seemingly non-attributable words to any language — I do not necessarily ‘believe every article or all of any article’ or ‘endorse any angle that Aanirfan promotes’. Indeed, there are articles that I would be very much against, & articles that I would believe only some of their… Read more »
Interesting to read a Brexit discussion without any reference to migration. I think the UK have the best form of border control which is called the ocean, which mitigates from the worst problems seen on the continent. Economics and politics should be really the main issues. Can these be sorted out within the existing framework of the EU, is a key question for Brexit voters. Some good points here about the transparency of Brussels, can this be improved. Can EU politicians do more than national governments about youth unemployment is another. Personally think that instead of imposing austerity, profitable EU… Read more »
Just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they are not out to get you.
When governments start passing “bail in” kinds of legislation then it’s a fair bet they are out to get somebody.
Which when you’re are paranoid also means it’s a fair bet that they are up to other sh!t too.