There has been a lot of silly chatter this week about “celebrity” economists. This term is meant to be demeaning. But everyone knows – post crash – that the main distinction between economists in Ireland is not the “serious versus the celebrity” but it is between those economists with “foresight” and those with “hindsight”. If having foresight means that I am a celebrity – well, I am all for celebrity.
Here is a 2003 Prime Time clip taken from last night’s Freefall programme.
Can I humbly ask, where were Ireland’s so-called “serious” economists back then – the ones who are so vocal now armed with the worthless artillery of hindsight?
comical Dan Austin
Where is Desperate Dan ? Just wondering, you know the way that Dan was always opposed to the fact that there were people in the public sector who getting paid regardless of their performance. Well Dan is now a public sector employee in a (useless) semi-state called BoI. Dan’s performance in regard to economic forecasting has been abysmal. Does this mean that Dan’s job will be on the line as a result of any public sector rationalization program ? He does not have to worry about being involved in a “sale of state assets”. Neither he nor BoI would constitute… Read more »
http://www.herald.ie/opinion/columnists/sinead-ryan/sinead-ryan-time-will-prove-mcwilliams-is-right-again-garret-2608850.html
Beware of the dangerous old windbags. Maybe Garrett should explain his piece to his good chum Mr. Sutherland from Goldman Sachs. Garrett has a direct ear to one of the senior bondholders of Irish debt who may have difficulty differentiating between fact and “celebrity” economist opinion. Maybe someone could give Charlie Mc Crevy a call in Bank Of New York Mellon another holder of senior Irish debt to explain how great things are here. Seems theres plenty of celebrity Irish politicians and movers and shakers in direct positions of power to “explain” the situation. Or maybe the markets have done… Read more »
People believe what they want to believe. Charlatans like Dan Austin and Jim Power were telling everyone what they wanted to hear and of course peddling their employers spin. While David was giving an independent analysis nobody wanted to listen. I watched that program again. It was cringe-worthy listening to all the former boom cheerleaders trying to rewrite history. Shame on them.
Should We Listen to Economists Anymore Then?
Yes, if they are Modern Money Theorists. MMT will inform a number of economic policies to be presented and debated in a conference entitled “Lessons from the Crisis: Money, Taxes and Saving in a Changing World” co-hosted by Smart Taxes, (Fiscal Policy for Sustainability Network) and TASC (Think Tank for Action on Social Change) on the 9th May 2011 at Croke Park, Dublin.
The conference is free and open to anyone whose mind is also open. Email Alex at Tasc to book your place : aklemm@tascnet.ie
Not a bad effort to attribute blame for the scam, but incomplete…. Not just the ‘old landlords’ or the ‘mortgage agencies’ but very significantly untouched there by DmcW, bank shareholders, the financial industry, government tax take, crony developers, FF.
Nevertheless, bet he bores the hell out of the wife and kids playing that to them every evening:)
Interesting discussion here
http://bit.ly/eDND4o
subscribe.
The biggest joke in the last week was Blackrock – forget Garret
Blackrock – the most aggressive bidder on US real estate in the mid 2000 era! They lost $500B in one deal in NYC. They lost their national CalPERS multi family account as their returns were so poor.
Blackrock is giving the Govt advice? April Fools day continues….
God, Miriam O has really dis-improved in the last 8 years! She even knew how to dress then! Who puts the stuff that hangs on her like a cheap suit now? That Austin fella is a looser. Anyhooo,.. as a nation were fu€ked! These dumb asses didnt know sh1t! And this is just more of it. Good man David M.
one day soon an irish winston smith will be deleting and re-editing all that footage and we and we will all be encouraged to stop worrying and love big brother / peter sutherland / denis o’brien / the green jersey {delete where applicable}
good on you david to hell with the flat earthers!
I dont watch TV but I came to despise the bleating gombeen voice of Austin Hughes and his pathetic ilk on radio in the years running up to the crash. I think I hate poor the poor auld fecker.
To think that that gombeen Hughes, would write an article every Friday, in the Irish Times Business Supplement, every week of the year almost. For years on end. Maybe he still does. Austin, was on Page 3 of the IT-BS. (Hilarious initials). Austin was there to encourage people to take seriously the culture of property porn. (Which incidentally was, the main hard sell of the IT PS – is there an O missing there ?) You might have Seanie Fitz, Fingers, Eugene Sheehy, or Fintan Drury on the back page of IT BS. Complete with a set of golf clubs.… Read more »
Think you said it best David, the closer to the target (the truth) the more flak you take. No doubt to my mind you and others represent something of a threat to the status quo, the money makers and their servant politicians, you spoke straight as an arrow on Prime Time and if people had heeded your message they would not now be in difficulty. It is a terrible thought that good Irish people have been swindled by their own people. It really is shameful. Well done on the comments above, if only we had a few legions of such… Read more »
David, Great newsletter i am an avid follower of yours but i do think it was a bit much to expect a balanced critique from the Nations only TV Broadcaster?
David was right that it was a scam; but his diagnosis of the scam was incorrect. It was never a scam by the old on the young as he portrays it. That dynamic was merely part of the way the scam played out locally. The scam is a global scam by the global elite; those who own and control the money supply system; the debt system. They are the ultimate Senior Senior Bond Holders. They will eventually agree to negotiate. There will eventually be debt relief. But not before they have bankrupted the Western nations and forced fire-sales of assets… Read more »
People need to develop their own counsel and certainly not rely on so called ‘experts’ and politicians even less so. This clip should be played to every single secondary school student, we have to learn from the mistakes, hurbis and vested interests which skew ‘common sense’.
This clip blew me away as I was out of the country when this stuff was unfolding, how that man from BOI can ever speak on a topic again is beyond me. Thanks for posting.
Portugal gone for a bailout –
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12993318
Some predictions take years to be proven right after being constantly dismissed by the powers that be. The latest prediction by many other economists and commentators – that Portugal would ask for EU funding – has turned into reality today after just a few months. It’s an almost exact re-run of what happened with Ireland at the end of 2010.
Also today, we saw optimistic headlines like “Spain has no need of financial aid: IMF’s Strauss-Kahn” and “Deposits outflow steadies, says Noonan”. How can anyone take these reassurances seriously any more?
Hi David,
Can’t help feeling Garrett is a bit jealous of you popping up on Channel 4 etc. and nobody wants to talk to him – not because he’s not a nice man, he is; not because he’s stupid, he’s not; BUT because he either didn’t have the vision to see what was happening OR because for some other reason HE DIDN’T SPEAK UP. I could come up with a couple of reasons why he didn’t speak up.
Please Garrett, I respect you but you didn’t speak up, now don’t compound it by making a fool of yourself.
There is a German word often used in systems practie (basically a method of thought based on looking at interconnections, relationships and the “bigger picture”). Its called “Weltanschaung” which translates as “world view.” The world view didn’t happen overnight, it occured as a result of 30-40 years of carefully thought out policies which favoured home ownership and basically shut down the supply of cheap homes to low income families and singles in particular. FF have been in power for all but 7 of the last 32 years – plenty of time to establish a locked down commitment to pushing interests… Read more »
Whoops, forgot to add one thing. We have not had a true housing “market” since the early 1970s, we have had a cartel involving government, builders, developers and financiers, who all colluded to ensure that selling prices remained high. NAMA is a new part to that cartel, as it attempts to keep prices high (under the excuse that they are being kept high for the taxpayer – a flat and blatant lie), by keeping them empty and forcing up prices otherwise, by protecting market failure laws such as “upward only rent reviews”, and by creating an illusion that the market… Read more »
Haven’t commented for a while but it’s great when you get it glaringly right and fair play David Mac.Bang on the money and on national TV too.Pity nobody outside this jurisdiction watches it.Maybe if they had the benefit of RTE Player at the time who knows what may have happened.Yeah right.From Blackrock to Ballymun to Bulgaria they all got it horribly wrong.We all know the assholes who bought a pile or three in the hope of screwing some Eastern European gobshite with the promise of a killing.And thats not a Bulgarian Mafia type hit either.Look guys take your medicine and… Read more »
At the end of my post I have included a link to Yesterday’s Keiser Report where they talk laughingly about NAMA and then have Alex Jones giving an interview about the financial dictatorship. This is alternative media at it’s best and makes RTE look laughable by comparison. This type of reporting scares the old establishments and makes them feel threatened David. The Irish establishment is looking desperate and outgunned on economic matters and they know it. For example Shredded Wheat Head (SWH) was giving Vinnie Browne and Boyd Barret a hard time the show the other night trying to defend… Read more »
“Can I humbly ask, where were Ireland’s so-called “serious” economists back then — the ones who are so vocal now armed with the worthless artillery of hindsight?”
They need to be seen to be right. They have no notion of Uriah Heep’s belief of the need for men to be ‘umble
I think David is one of the most positive people in Ireland on the Economy. Probably most people who comment here have been called ‘negative’ by their family or friends at some stage. However they are actually positive because they have seen the better way forward. If you say to someone ‘hey don’t jump into the fire, you’ll get burnt’ you are not ‘being negative’. Some in Ireland would tell you ‘Jump into the fire, if you are positive and have confidence you won’t get burnt’. Then you get burnt – they’ll say ‘that was because the negative guy made… Read more »
Watched Lucinda Creighton on Vincent Browne last night. utterly dismayed at the level of her incompetence however impressed with Stephen Donnelly.
I believe the tide of anger is coming, rising interest rates, FG/Labour continuing FF disasterous policy, another hair shirt budget looming,majority of small businesses struggling and a government that does not act in the interests of the people.
David, I know the last election took the group you were attempting to organise by surprise but start planning now an election can only be 18 months away.
Legal Question:
It a given that Mr. Austin Hughes in his capacity as acting Chief Economist with IIB Bank was more than willing to state his expert opinion in a live televised debate.
He must have know without question that his argument would be vital and critical information necessary for IIB customer making serious decisions on mortgages at that point in time.
Were his comments irresponsible and could IIB mortgage holders use this video of Mr Hughes in their defence should negotiations or legal issues arise due to difficulties with their mortgage repayments?
Thnaks for the comments as always. The interesting thing is that the “serious” economists weren’t just wrong about the housing/banking cartel, but we see them lagging again on the debt crisis. Remember these were, in the main, the “Ireland doesn’t need a bailout” crew. Anyone who suggested that the Euro hid a deep financial faultline was dismissed as a crank or a celebrity. Now with Portugal this morning, we know that this is a proper debt crisis and the outcome is clear – mass debt restructuring in Europe
Best David
GF , like the rest of the insiders is in love with everything european.They can’t stand the simple fact that they have shown to be clueless.The experience of the UK inside the ERM , rock bottom interest rates @ the wrong time was disastrous, some people couln’t extend that to Ireland.
http://www.uti.is
An Icelandic view on things.
I looked at the clip. It lasts 10 mins. Did I miss something? One of the people featured is called Kate Fennell. She said that you have to go with the flow, live life now, etc. I’d say she must be a daughter of Desmond Fennell. I’d be interested to know what he makes/ made of all this. I think a brother, Cillian, is or was a producer of the Late Late, and that he appeared on it himself once, discussing the Irish language. His views (if I remember correctly) were derivative and mainstream. (Although from another angle they were… Read more »
Can somebody throw some light on the Ratings agencies and why the big accountancy firms have not been prosecuted for signing off on false accounts? A poster on another site wrote this which provoked me to repost it: “I want readers to remember that Moody’s is the very same company that rated the banks that ultimately required a Tax Payer BAIL OUT, as either Triple A (AAA) or Double A+ (AA+) right up till the point they went bust… And they are the same Moody’s that rated the completely worthless Junk debt swaps/bonds, as Triple A (AAA) or Double A+… Read more »
Harper66 predicts “I believe the tide of anger is coming… ” Oh please, you missed the tide of anger. It culminated in the four poorly-attended outside-Dail protests at the end of last year. The tide is now ebbing as demonstrated by the 100 people who tuned up at the Dail yesterday evening 6pm for the referendum protest. We tried our ‘couldn’t-be-arsed’ best attempt at anger and it has served its purpose. Now we move on, back to our self-absorbed couch-potato lives, only to stir when the EU-sponsored soup-kitchen calls round to hand out our EU-charitable cheese+bread meals. We deserve better… Read more »
For an interesting conversation on the risk models of banks between Daniel Kahneman & Nassim Nicholas Taleb have a look at
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/kahneman_taleb_DLD09/kahneman_taleb_DLD09_index.html
Did anyone get a load of the article in the Indo and the IT yesterday about some Polish (I think) property scam where a load of quote ” high net worth individuals” (greedy twats) were invited to invest a total of €22 million between them in this scheme (scam).Well it was definitely a northside who’s who of greedy bastards and I noted one pharmacy owner (surprise surprise) was in to the tune of €1.5m.It ended up in court and you know what. My heart bleeds for them.Wish a few more of these Celtic Tiger high net worth individuals were named… Read more »
Potatoes, anyone?