When I see the carry-on at Fine Gael, the week they have Fianna Fail on the ropes, I despair. Not because I have any historical allegiance to Fine Gael, but because it is the biggest opposition party and it seems to be intent on letting this appalling Government off the hook. Maybe I’m wrong, but there is a sense that the political class is now so remote that much of it lives on another planet.
For the past two years, in poll after poll, the people have been screaming that they want change, but time and again we are let down by party machines. For Fine Gael the problem is the leader, because every time there is a poll the people seem to baulk at Enda Kenny. This problem doesn’t look as if it is going away.
All the while the economy is getting worse, not better. Unemployment is moving upwards and credit is drying up.
Every month for the past two years more than 6,000 people have been made redundant. The financial markets are effectively shut to Ireland. So there is no credit.
The inter-bank market — the market where banks lend to each other which is the essential lubricant of the banking system — has closed down for Irish banks. The only bank that will lend to us is the ECB, the lender of last resort.
But how long will the ECB continue to prop us up? And what type of Irish economy is being propped up by the ECB? Is it a vibrant, competitive economy or simply a financial concubine happy to be drip-fed European money without any idea of what it will do when the master tires of this set-up?
Greece has been downgraded yet again and now the fault lines in the euro are once more evident with the peripheral countries owing billions to the core countries — money that is unlikely to be paid back.
According to a BIS report this week, French and German banks had exposures of $958bn (€776bn) to Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal, including $174bn (€141bn) of government debt. This is the sort of debt that can destroy the German and French banking system.
As a result of these imbalances no one will lend money to our banks because they don’t trust them. Financial markets are based on trust and once that is shattered it is almost impossible to get it back.
It is against this background that we are experiencing the total disconnect between the political class and the economic reality.
Will a change at the top of Fine Gael make a difference to your life? I put this question to a number of shopkeepers in Dalkey. Their answer was unanimous: there was a strong view that it won’t make a jot of difference to people who are trying to stay in business. These are the people who employ people, and if you examine the Irish economy, you see that the vast majority of us are employed in the local service economy, so this is what we have to get going.
Therefore, the most important arena for the recovery is your own locality. If we can get more of us to spend locally we can begin to rebuild the economy, slowly but surely.
While our national politicians talk about national goals and turning the country around, the actual process of turning begins locally.
In the first decades of the last century, Irish independence was engineered by a series of local initiatives driven by the spirit of building a new country. We can do this again if we just stand together locally.
For example, this weekend is the Dalkey Book Festival (www.dalkeybookfestival.org). We have a fantastic line-up and the aim is to get people into the town to listen to local authors and go to the shops, restaurants and bars or just go for a stroll up Killiney Hill or down to the beach.
Watching politics won’t make that happen. You have to get on the phone and do things for yourself. Lots of towns are suffering in the recession; they have to make things happen for themselves because the longer we wait, the worse the recession will get and businesses will close. And, when businesses close, they don’t open up again in a hurry.
Back before the foundation of the State when all these vibrant local initiatives were taking off, the political manifestation of localism was abstentionism. As Westminster became increasingly remote, it also became irrelevant. The nationalists set up parallel political, social and economic structures for the betterment of the country and they didn’t wait for the imprimatur of the established political class. As the man on the Nike ad says, “just do it”. And they just did it.
The way mainstream politics in Ireland is reacting to the crisis in the economy and in society, it is not difficult to envisage an “abstentionist” culture becoming popular. When the main opposition party is fighting with itself rather than pulling together in some form of unified movement based on national solidarity, it isn’t hard to imagine a situation where people just give up on the Dail as an irrelevance. It risks becoming the ultimate “insider” chamber where the “outsiders” in the rest of the country matter little.
But this is not the end of the world, in fact it is a liberation. Countries rejuvenate themselves from the bottom up. People start their own movements, their own initiatives and the country changes in an organic way. Once the connection between the political establishment and the people is broken, it just becomes a circus.
If we look at what is happening outside the country in Europe, it is clear that a mass default on the periphery is on the cards. It is impossible to say when this will be, but the numbers just don’t stack up.
This will be an epoch changing event, because the system that allowed the huge debts to build up will be rendered illegitimate. Whatever replaces it will be based on the central and somewhat hazy notion that the old system was “wrong” and there is no going back. This is likely to prompt local political change where the old structures find it difficult to adapt. The more remote they are in the crisis the less adaptable they’ll be. This is where local action will come to the fore.
When you see the main opposition party tearing itself apart at such a time, it’s hard not to conclude that they just don’t get it.
David McWilliams performs ‘Outsiders‘ at the Peacock from today until July 3
I sense this is necessary, a small part of the change needed, removing a leader is a messy business, think it could have been done another way, but think also that this was inevitable. But yes, there is an argument for ‘Nero fiddling while Rome burns’, 440,000 unemployed with more on the way can testify to that, we are not at the races, some of the worst aspects of the Irish character have come to the fore over the last decade……..we are reaping what FF, the PDs and an ineffective opposition sowed, to blame the regulator or others like Harney… Read more »
The only way out is: wean ourselves off money as the sole currency; humbly educate ourselves in how we are solely dependent on the natural systems to keep us alive; drastically lessen lifestyle expectations; rediscover our natural humility and smell the tea. People say daft things like “I just can’t live without earning 55,000 a year, I just can’t!” These people, which are most of us, just don’t get it. None of us are getting it.
I think you are correct in assessing FG’s ridiculous carry on. Right now FG might as well disband as their credibility either way has gone down the tubes. The time to dispose of a leader was after the last dismal election performance – this is probably too late for FG, and realistically, how is it that you can dispose of a leader while a councillor who took 20,000 for “consulting” redgarding access to lands in a massive conflict of interest sits pretty on her seat speaks volumes regarding the party. FG had some reasonable ideas regarding the economy but really… Read more »
“If we look at what is happening outside the country in Europe, it is clear that a mass default on the periphery is on the cards. It is impossible to say when this will be, but the numbers just don’t stack up.”
This has all been predicted by the great Economist Kurt Richebacher My gusess late 2012/Early 2013 Barrons online have predicted this moment to be “the perfect financial storm”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Richeb%C3%A4cher
Get Over It – Its the Start of The Moon Pull and there is lots more to come – WOBBLE .
If we personally want to walk away from this debt, does David have any suggestions on where we should go. What about Canada?
I think its that half-hearted approach to challenging FF on their policies on Nama, Bank recap etc. that left George Lee very disillusioned with Fine Gael. I have always held the belief that there would be a good few of FG backers caught up in this property bubble madness, as it only stands to reason that insiders that back FG would not have missed out where they could avail of some handy inside money. I refer back to a post of mine some time back where I outlined the makeup of the Leitrim County Council, as being a straight split… Read more »
Where is the money gonna come from to support all these local small businesses? I’d much rather go to somewhere like Tesco or Aldi that is far cheaper and offers greater choice. I’d try to buy Irish and local produce where possible, but at the end of the day it comes down to price and quality. We are in a free market after all. Supermarkets are run more efficiently and renders these local main st shops redundant. It would be far better if they shops closed down so the people running them would then have time to use their skills… Read more »
The political parties are upto their necks in the property and land business. Maybe this will finally be their undoing. We know that Anglo was kept afloat, and NAMA was brought into play because our political class and their mates needed to be saved. Well, if and when it all collapses anyway, this will drag this lot down with them.
Take a good look at what’s sitting in the Dail, a complete bunch of economic illiterates.They spend their time on auction politics ,act like a bunch of populist social workers, leveling this country into the floor with a mire of welfare ,crippling taxes, nanny statism ,servile dependency .People should forget about government and half the regulations in business and just get on with it.People should look after themselves and their families first and others later.
DMcW’s article put me in mind of a Hutton article from before the British election: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/11/economic-recession-recovery It’s funny (or maybe not) how so much of it applies just the same to ireland. “The electorate is not dumb. We know the wealth of the last two decades was fairy dust. We know bankers don’t know how to help enterprise. We know the country has to make its living differently in future. We know that requires a mix of belt-tightening and huge investment. We do not see why the public services we rely on should be emasculated while the business and banking… Read more »
The incident that told me that FG don’t get it was the George Lee incident. There is not a single problem solver in the Dail. And let’s face it Joe Behan is about the only one in there who has any integrity with regards to standing up to the IBEC-ICTU power nexus. David is correct. You cannot rely on a bunch of opportunists whose main punch lines are “the other crowd are the problem”, and “elect us and we will give you something for nothing”. Oh yeah, and “we care”. Apparently, when the public respond negatively to all this punch… Read more »
Hi David, > As a result of these imbalances no one will lend money to our banks because they don’t trust them. Its not just trust. The level of debt our banks have is so high that lenders are reluctant to give them more money. There are safer havens with similar returns elsewhere. If our banks can get rid of their debts the trust will magically come back. As for supporting local enterprises, its all well and good in theory but econ101 tells us that specialisation and scale is better value/more productive than village economics. I like villages though as… Read more »
Folks, it is our old friend, “Democratic deficit” again. FG spent Friday-Monday seeking votes for Bruton/Kenny instead of canvassing Independents and FF backbenchers votes against Cowen. Political naiveté, or something worse? I know what I think.
Then, just this afternoon, the Oireachtas Finance Committee walked-out on Peter Mathews! Yes, walked-out on a man talking sense to them.
I believe that Alan Dukes refused to answer Shane Ross’ questions, as well, claiming he didn’t “have to answer” them.
Make of all that what-you-will. I’ll leave you with an interesting link regarding our “austerity measures”:
http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2010/06/krugman-lying-eyes.html
David, you say
‘But how long will the ECB continue to prop us up? And what type of Irish economy is being propped up by the ECB? Is it a vibrant, competitive economy or simply a financial concubine happy to be drip-fed European money without any idea of what it will do when the master tires of this set-up?’
I say…
‘Un f’n real this sentence.’
This is the nub of it. This is so true it makes me queasy reading it and absorbing its intelligence.
Another humdinger from the article is……….
‘As a result of these imbalances no one will lend money to our banks because they don’t trust them. Financial markets are based on trust and once that is shattered it is almost impossible to get it back.’
David, you say..
‘It is against this background that we are experiencing the total disconnect between the political class and the economic reality.’
So, is it the case nobody in political power is actually taking responsibility for the situation the countries macroeconomic situation is now in and getting down to brass tacks and fixing the plumbing.
We live in a bizarre topsy turvy world. Gege Le Beau already given this url http://bit.ly/cbOK2W Seems old nepotism/croneyism has turned its face against the leader, Kenny. I’m not FG nor do I belong to any political party, but it appeared to me Kenny was mostly the only asset FG had, winning more and more votes every election.Good leaders require good followers too! However the party faithful,’the FG rump’, ‘ loyal, colleagues being for the most part silent and useless have now surpassed themselves ‘ ‘salivating if not frothing with ambition’ with an own goal you couldn’t make up. We… Read more »
I think the writing has been on the wall for Kenny, everytime he makes a public appearance such as the late late he loses support. In europe there is going to be massive default on loans , this is expected and the ECB will be called in to bail out not just banks but entire countries and so even their credit will dry up. When the lender of last resort runs out of money what will happen? I can not understand why the dollar is so strong after all their national debt is heading for 14 trillion dollars more than… Read more »
I can’t help but agree with you David on this one.
The infighting in Fine Gael in only adding to the despair of the ordinary people of Ireland and it is forcing the middle ground to seek alternative pastures and extreme ideas last month now become more appealing. Moderate thinking people are now openly calling for the forceful removal of the unelected Taoiseach Cowen and the rest of the gangsters in the Dail
Ps. I like you new layout of the Blog template!
David.
I’ve just tried the ‘BROWSE THE ARCHIVES’ link and it is FANTASTICO.
REALLY BRILLIANT, really it is quite something to have all that info right there so quick and simple to access and archive.
Posters have a look it is SUPERB.
It’s really bad timing on the part of Fine Gael, they have distracted everyone from Cowen’s plight, but if they get a better leader maybe it will be worth it, is Kenny that bad or is he just not media friendly/unlikable personality? Personally I am against him as he has promised to reverse the new legislation against animal cruelty if he comes into power
Talking Backwards The Refrain : To Hell or To Connaught We are witnessing in the Politics of NOW the re-enactment of the ‘Act of Settlement ‘ that was followed up by the the ‘Act of Satisfaction’.The purpose of these acts were to confiscate huge amounts of land for payment to the Cromwellian soldiers and to reimburse Adventurers ( investors) in this conquest of Ireland.There was mass transportation to Connaught and Clare of all classes of Irishmen above landless labourers . To assess the lands due for confiscation a property survey was carried out by an Englishman who studied philosophy named… Read more »
Oil Spill on The Breakfast Table Am I getting this right ? Yesterday we are told in the Oireachtas that what we have paid into Anglo €22bn is LOST for Eternity.Now accross the water President Obama is attempting to secure that BP Oil be responsible for the clean-up costing to date €1.5bn .This is nearly 15 times the cost we threw away into Anglo in a whim.Had we waited and then volunteered to do all the cleaning up ourselves employing all our own people for 15 years we would have had no umemployment and we would have received some satisfaction… Read more »
Sack The House of Gombeens
FF will be in power for another two years, Cowen has said as much so regardless of the state of the nation, it is highly unlikely their position will change regardless of how the opposition carries on. I’m not a FF or FG supporter but I am in the anti-enda camp and I think the country will respond well to FG once Enda is gone and the party has settled. The sooner that happens, the better prepared FG will be for the next election. Whether the New FGs actually have the will to make real changes is another debate altogether.… Read more »
Kenny is fighting like an alley-cat to retain leadership of FG, apparently supported mainly by old-hand urban bourgeoisie. The younger and western culchie TDs want a new leader.
If Kenny had put half the effort into attacking Cowen that he has into splitting his party, he would have been Taioseach long ago. Doesn’t he realize that it takes more than a hairstyle and a schooltaioseach’s image and credentials to lead a great nation?
Our politicians had an “abstentionist” culture as long as I can remember. Many thanks for articulating this David. Local parish pump presenteeism has led to a complete disconnect with regard to national needs and it meant our eyes were completely off the ball with respect to our standing in the world. The games in Dail Eireann are irrelevant now. I would campaign for a national abstentionism on the part of people to turn their backs on this nonsense. Do not Vote, Pay taxes, Debts etc. on the pure basis that you are not being represented in any way shape or… Read more »
On the topic of “getting it”….maybe….finally….Ireland means business…. http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/belfast-firm-wins-contract-to-build-wind-farm-power-station-2223975.html Eh, no. That is ‘the other Ireland’. Two systems. One means pricing to get the business. The other means pricing to rip-off. When I saw this headline first, I had visions of a giant windfarm off the coast of Louth, or Malahide. But then that would result in more NIMBYism. When it is the location of another superdump in Kildare that is NIMBYism. But when it is the location of an incinerator near to where all the rubbish is generated it is something that local TD is against as a matter… Read more »
David, in this article you say: ‘Financial markets are based on trust and once that is shattered it is almost impossible to get it back.’ This confuses me because you have said time and again that financial markets are”forgiving”. Indeed, your argument for why we should have let the bank collapse in the first place was premised on the principle that markets have short memories and are willing to re-invest whever the conditions are right. Could you explain the apparent contradiction?
The more things change, the more they stay the same Such A Parcel Of Rogues In A Nation 1791 Fareweel to a’ our Scottish fame, Fareweel our ancient glory; Fareweel ev’n to the Scottish name, Sae fam’d in martial story. Now Sark rins over Solway sands, An’ Tweed rins to the ocean, To mark where England’s province stands- Such a parcel of rogues in a nation! What force or guile could not subdue, Thro’ many warlike ages, Is wrought now by a coward few, For hireling traitor’s wages. The English stell we could disdain, Secure in valour’s station; But English… Read more »
Brian “I am not abdicating responsibility” Cowen, and Eamon ‘Ditherer 2.0’ Gilmore have both been given a present from FG. And own goal. A real Rob Green performance. http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fine-gael-leader-wins-confidence-vote-2225319.html Well, that is the end of that. In an economic crisis and the leader of the opposition had two reasonably good economists on his team. And he pissed them both off. Remarkable achievement. One left disenchanted. And the other was sacked. The Saipan Saga – we still have learnt nothing. Cowen will probably go on the booze for a week over this. There is a hope that this might end up… Read more »
@webmaster
What was handy in the last website was the latest comments toolbar thingy where, if one was busy, one could log on and flip quickly through for an update. I don’t see this facility here now or maybe I’ve missed it??
David , you are , as always , right on the money . If we do not correct our ways really fast , then we are in BIG trouble . The Greeks are still 211 billion in the hole . France is currently holding 1 trillion of the PIIGS high risk debts , default for any one of the PIIGS could spell utter disaster for the French economy and trigger the end of the Euro . I hope that the Euro will not dissolve , however it is a strong possibility . I believe that August 12th could very well… Read more »
The WOBBLE is Arriving to a POINT
near ….YOU
SLOW DOWN
Tomorrow the Gates Open and to Show for Four Weeks .
Not sure about interactivity of new site, logging in is giving me trouble as well as a headache to look at………sorry David, simplicity is one of the keys to life……………
Best thing Kenny can do now is resign as the undefeated leader of FG and run for the Aras. His style is more Presidential, he’s a ceremonial kind of guy who suits formal occasions. His cupla focal also helps with this Head of State role.
FG need to realise that the problem is not the electorate not getting Enda, its FG not getting the electorate.
I want David McWilliams or Michael O’Leary as Taoiseach, but its not gonna happen. What do the Irish people want in a Taoiseach? Do the people want more FF/Green?
Generation Levy
I believe that David should explore the inverse of what is happening to make what should happen.I am of the opinion that everyone over 55 to 60 should suffer a Levy and those over 60 a heavier Levy .Thse monies should be used to employ all young people to replace the older work force.Otherwise when the present over 50s retire after 65+ there will be no Irish Youth left and only foreign labour and foreign culture to contend with.
@Deco, Thoughtful post above, thx. Greetings from hols from LA:) As the bright star of the eurozone begins to die and contract into a black hole before imploding inward….what does the world do as the same fate awaits other regions across the world, a fairer economic order, or some Seanie banker dictating terms to the serf owers? OT anybody pickup on Kowing re bankers levy preference it will fund state coffers as a form of state tax? The more realistic proposal re levy is it be used to manage/bailout bad banks. Has someone misinformed Koing to keep him sweet on… Read more »
John ALLEN, I need a copy of your bank case. Can you give it to me again, please? email tnteacher@oceanfree.net
Thanks.
I am not a expert . But up to 28 Billion has been thrown into Anglo with no hope of a return and it seems that bilions more will be sucked up by Anglo . A bank that by the way , does no business . Ireland which is in a depression and dispite NAMA ( what kind of a bank lends in a depression / resession ? )still does not have working banks and a massive personal debt problem on its hands which has been delayed by the moratorium . A report was released by respected people which lashed… Read more »
John ALLEN, thanks for that.
Baby Brut does really cry what a sweet baby he is .His opinions will never be same anymore .The question we now must ask Enda is ‘Is he smarter than a ten year old?’.
Looks like some industrious person had a good shot at what I highlighted previously!!
Families in the Oireachtas
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Families_in_the_Oireachtas