Two years ago, in the book and accompanying TV series ‘The Generation Game’ I suggested that the imminent recession would be severe and would affect the generations differently.
The most exposed generation, who were termed the “Juggling Generation”, were the young workers who had just been cajoled onto the property ladder and who were largely living in commuter towns outside our major cities and urban areas. These were the people who would lose their jobs, sink under debts and be mired in negative equity.
The Irish “Baby Belt”, that huge swathe of the country where the population exploded in the boom, would slump from the vibrancy of young families and the positive dynamic of expectations of a better life to dejection and anger as the dream evaporated.
At the time, this dystopia was regarded as extreme. Many commentators dismissed these predictions as the work of an idiosyncratic crank making outlandish pronouncements in order to sell books.
Well now it is happening as forecast and the implications for politics and the nature of our society are enormous.
Things do fall apart and sometimes we need to “think the unthinkable”. A familiarity with the rudiments of economics might help too.
If a generation with young families is abandoned in the suburbs with no jobs and negative equity, they face three choices. First, they can emigrate if they can face the upheaval and find a place that might accept them. Second, they can stay here and snarl on the dole, possibly waiting for a political messiah to deliver them out of this darkness.
Third, they can rely on themselves, take things by the scruff of the neck and try to work their way out.
Over the coming years, I hope that they will do the latter.
There are many reasons to be optimistic but it will take time to (a) get over the shock and (b) figure out what to do next.
As you read this, all over the country there are people in desperation who don’t know what to do next or where to turn. As unemployment rises, these private kitchen crises will become more widespread.
The ramifications in terms of family breakdown, psychological problems and social chaos are self-evident. Last weekend, I listened to a GP from one such town, Gorey in Wexford, which has seen its population rocket since 2000.
He explained that the recession was not prompting a surge in attendance of the poor and the old, who are the “normal” visitors to his clinic.
He spoke of young fathers in their 30s, men who had never been to a doctor before, arriving into the clinic depressed, anxious and in need of counselling. They simply can’t cope.
In order to see what’s happening and where, let’s take a drive out from the centre of any of our cities with their cafes, shops, bars, immigrants, students, young workers and foreigners who live in the thousands of apartments built over the past 10 years.
There are still some old inner city residents, but the big demographic change has been the influx of young people, born in the suburbs, back into town swapping the box room in Mammy’s for the box room in town. They are mainly renting, young and single. The recession is biting here but in different ways.
Let’s continue out past the inner suburbs, the original 1940s and 1950s council estates. These houses are built to last and these areas have seen a huge surge in wealth and stability since the 1980s. Gone are the Hiace vans on blocks in gardens, Hallowe’en bonfires and chippers; these have been replaced by black SUVs, holiday homes in Alicante, steady incomes and careers.
If we drive on to the older professional suburbs, we see nothing but red-brick solidity. These people, the ultimate insiders in the Irish parlour game, have done very well indeed. You can see it in their bodies. They weigh less than they did at the start of the boom. Some are over-extended in two-bit syndicates that old college mates in red cords duped them into. As a result, there will be spectacular crashes, which will dominate their dinner party gossip, but ultimately they’ll be ok. They always are. At worst they will become poor versions of the European middle class.
Let’s keeping driving over the ring road, past the toll bridges and the Giraffe Early Learning Centre and creche, past the Woodies DIY, Borders and the chrome and glass VW sales garage. Keep to the left beyond the TK Maxx, Curries and Tescos, the Indian takeaway and the Costa coffee shop. Keep going, you’re nearly here.
Take a right. Into the new estate — yes that’s the one, Knightsbridge Wood. You are in the home of the Jugglers. Here is the carnage. These houses, built in 2003, are all in negative equity. Unemployment is rising rapidly. Unemployment has tripled in counties Kildare, Meath and Laois since ‘The Generation Game’ was published. This is where we are going to see the greatest social problems in the coming years and expect to see the same pattern in the areas surrounding Cork, Galway and Limerick.
(If you want to see the hard numbers underlying this article check ronanlyons.wordpress.com or visit www.irisheconomy.ie)
At the moment this is a creeping geographical phenomenon but it will soon become the single biggest issue in Irish politics.
The Jugglers are Ireland’s outsiders — yet they are our brothers and sisters, our sons and daughters, our cousins, nieces, and nephews. They have been hung out to dry and as the most potentially productive generation in the country, if they don’t recover, we won’t recover.
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Politicise.
We have a government for the middle aged, by the middle aged. The old paradigm of politics born from two groups trying to screw each other over just after another country got fed up of screwing everyone, is dragging us all down and miring us in old models and patterns.
The jugglers need to determine what is in their collective interest and form their own political models. Won’t happen tomorrow, but if it starts now there is at least a possibility of getting something done.
Inflammable –
‘This’ is the surrogate of the economic Matrix we have before our eyes ………’is this a dagger before me , the handle towards my hand, come let me clutch thee …..’ etc ( Macbeth )
We can see Murder while we sleep .
Where do the developers and the builders of all these kitsch housing estates get these daft names from……..” Knightsbridge Wood”. For the love of god, can’t they at least give the people who are going to live in these places a bit of dignity, and sense of place. This sort of nonsense, along with the building boom itself is all the more reason to look forward to Fianna Fail been trampled when a general election is called next month. They done nothing to contribute to the economy- it was just a property bubble holding up the Irish economy for the… Read more »
Hi David, I think it is no longer useful to describe the economic hardship and pain of Irish society. We need explanations and real public debate to find common approaches to spur economic reform. Recessions and booms are not natural rhythms of economic activity, they are symptoms of specific strengths and weaknesses of the structure of the economy. Let’s remember, the economy is a product of the broader values and commitment of society to work, productivity and innovation. In reality, we have lost this perspective. As a result, politics and economics is in a state of paralysis where the economy… Read more »
That was a very powerful and well-written article, but I have to say, I don’t like the constant labelling of people. Do people who fit the ‘juggler’ definition exist? – of course. But each ‘juggler’ is an individual with widely differing personal circumstances. I would guess that these people are qualified, mostly still employed, and won’t lose their jobs. The recession is just going to be an unhappy waiting game for them in their semi-d in one of these estates. And lets not forget, that many ‘jugglers’ have mummies and daddies who will be dying off and passing on wealth… Read more »
How much money do these jugglers owe, not just the banks, credit unions, credit card, loan agencies, family? The underlying problem as Krugman has just said is debt, and there is no way out of this unless globalisation is stopped, and regions become more self-reliant and carbon neutral. The political classes are not capable of leadership, and the media is collapsing from falls in advertising and the changes in information access on-line rather than print. The consequence is political instability as the poor and middle class are squeezed relentlessly and the elite gather greater amounts into private equity and off-shore… Read more »
With this Matrix at my back I am asking myself the question ‘do I want my nation to be relegated to a county council borrough with no statesman that I can call to be Irish in europe ‘ or do I want my country to emulate Norway and remain independent politically at least?
My jugular decision must be made on Polling Date June 2009.
A depressing but chillingly accurate article. I think the human side to this ‘crisis’, the impact it has on the different classes is very useful and is often not mentioned in the mainstream press. Those in the solidly built, red brick, leafy subarbs will be fine, it is the youth who are taking a massive hit, I had the same chat with my GP, he said the numbers seeking medication for stress has gone through the roof, I pray something gives, something has to happen. An experienced school teacher friend of mine in his 60s said he sees the Irish… Read more »
Excellent article. The jugglers are also the people who will turn the society from being staid and hierarchical and closed. The jugglers are the high end productive private sector workers who have to compete with China, and at the same time pay taxes for Lenihan’s bailout, Ahern’s quangos, the various overspends and the social crisis that we are entering. This is the part of the population that is stretched emotionally, financially and health wise. The jugglers are now the volatile element in Irish society who will change electoral allegiences quickly, and who are now doing the waking up. From the… Read more »
i think we’ve all become jugglers thanks to those clowns up there in that one ring circus we call a parliament. at this rate we’ll hav to be jumping through hoops eight nights a week til the end of the summer to pay this off.
and the same again next summer
Excellent link here on putting shape on Crony politico economic dynamics now running Ireland into the bog.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
Dear Mr Larkin Thank you very much for your email and for your kind comments. I agree that the general principles of Article 45 are indeed very interesting. In fact I quoted from it – last week – provision 2 iv “That in what pertains to be the control of credit the constant and predominant aim shall be the welfare of the peple as a whole” in the debate on the banks. I am forwarding your comments to my colleage and the Labour Party representative on the committee Leas Ceann Comhairle Brendan Howlin TD. Thanks again for making contact. Yours… Read more »
Frieds, roamers, countrymen… Greetings from Italy. I’ve been away now from Ireland for 2 months, lost the aul job and decided rather than sitting or standing in long dole queques I’d put myself to learning a new skill, Italian in my case. I’ve since kept away from the mass media and despite everything I used to read here the World is still turning. I’d advise anyone who can get out of the country for even a short while to do so, escape the constant downbeat humm that is omnipresent in our fair land, the mind will again expand and contact… Read more »
Hi David, Yes, you are right, in that some people will be more affected and ‘caught out’ by the credit bubble correction than others, and this is partly due to their generational position, when they ‘had to’ buy,m get married, have families in whatever order they chose, and whatever burb they could afford. But in a way I agree with MarkC above, there are individuals behind all of the averages, and indeed any statistician will know that the average person doesnt actually exist. Try as we might to depict the typical ‘juggler’, the reality is that such a depiction will… Read more »
Yeah, they have been hung out to dry, they bought the rope, tied the knot and put their head in the noose themselves…. I remember several conversations between young co workers and collegues the same age as myself… “I couldnt sleep at night owing 200k” was a common saying from older people, back in 2000. We sleepwalked into this, though the longer it went on the harder it was to resist, what was excessive borrowing quickly became normal….. I haven’t heard the “couldnt sleep” comment for years; we got tired of being laughed at, either joined the crowd or offered… Read more »
While all these stereotypes are wonderful the reality behind them is far less simplistic. There were people who bought homes in 05/06 who DIDN’T take out 100% mortgages but instead threw their entire savings into it, not only reducing their risks of negative equity but reducing their overall spend on mortgages long term. On the other hand I know of people who took the 100% on offer but didn’t borrow for furniture, thus again shifting their risk. There are people also (like me) who “opted out”, and instead of chasing huge money etc in Dublin, moved to Cork, settled for… Read more »
There is a Dave Alan sketch from the 80’s, where he takes the piss out of the banks. He was ahead of his time, because the sketch goes along the lines of how, the banks used to tell him to “piss off”, now, if he even just stops outside one, he gets dragged in and offered money.
WHY HAVEN’T LABOUR CALLED OR STAGED ANY PUBLIC POLITICAL MEETINGS OF ANY NOTE????????????????? I haven’t seen Gilmore in Ireland’s second biggest city (with 40,000 unemployed) – it’s so obvious and yet never happened?????????????????????? Not a single senior person has come down from Dublin to address the people, I am astounded. Obama was all over the place (Ireland is a lot smaller), talking to people, shaking hands, where are the so called future leaders? This must rate as one of the most politically cut off countries in the world!!!!!!!!!!!! (body politic and populace). I am astounded that no major meeting by… Read more »
The key distinction is the unemployed, the insecure and the rest of the workforce, say 70%. Apart from where friends or relatives are victims, most of the 70% will be mainly concerned about their own net income. Those in their 40’s onwards, who become unemployed, will end on the scrap heap, like the old days. 70% was also the public support for Ahern and McCreevy when they along with economists and social partners gave the two-fingers to the European Commission’s criticism of the 2001 Budget. As happened with Haughey, there was a lot of revisionism later. The same applies now.… Read more »
Jugglers Movi(e)ng
http://www.fiannafail.ie/watchthisfirst
Folks, There are fairly stark anomalies between what Alan Ahearne says in the IT today and what Vincent Brown says in a different article on the same page. Ahearne: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0520/1224246950236.html Brown: http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/0520/1224246950210.html Brown is effectively telling what we already know: that Somers blew the whistle on the fact that he knows nothing about how NAMA will function and was not consulted about recruitment, skills required, etc.; Ahearne is telling us that everything is hunky-dory with NAMA, all meticulously planned and the people at the NTMA (Somers) are well positioned to run it. Surely, this is more evidence to suggest what… Read more »
David, on the RTE1 Mooney Show this afternoon, rubbished Somers in his capacity as head of NTMA – despite all the spin we’ve had about how great this one million euro a year public servant is – our national debt, from way back, at 30 billion is still 30 billion – not a cent off it and on top of that, the losses in the pension reserve fund , for which he has responsibility, are huge. Perhaps it’s just as well that he doesn’t want to take on NAMA. Our future doesn’t look good if he is the best we’ve… Read more »
Everything depends on how issues of debt renegotiation/forgiveness and bankruptcy are resolved. Social cohesion depends on this. Cue rant: The power of troubled Developers to form a ‘union’ to legally challenge the valuation of any holdings transferred into NAMA stands in stark contrast to the lack of reform to personal bankruptcy laws affecting the ‘average Irish citizen’. There will be a minority of citizens who, for whatever variety of reasons, find themselves unable to straddle an abyss of debt, thus facing a costly bankruptcy ordeal of ‘traditional’ hypocritical social stigma, humiliating court action, and up to 12 years wrecked credit… Read more »
The mainstreet comm banks assure us the losses on balance sheets are mostly comprised of loans on property assets specifically related to property magnates and massive commercial property speculation. These losses are an event due to a slump in the property market. The once profit yielding loan is now a toxic debt and the quantity of which is too large to sort out and must be fixed with gov help or else crdit will never flow again across the POnzi Rep and the island of Ireland will sink into the sea. Is it possible though there is a different version… Read more »
Anyone who clicks tim’s link above at Irish time’s will discover NAMA head chief revealing that merrill lynch are been hired to render advice. Fee charged is according to somers is 6,000,000 euros of taxpayers dosh. If anyone is interested, go to my link below and one will discover Merrill lynch’s heavily involved in the derivatives casino and central to a new model been used for ailing banks drowning in derivatives gone south, to use to resolve the problem. Make of it what you may, but could it be lynch are been called in for advice on derivative debts on… Read more »
The masses that are still working are screwed more and more for the transgressions of the elite.
Back through history Ireland had a mechanism to counter such embalances,various groups emerged with varying degrees of success.
Today Sinn Fain have become Me Fain, as has other orgainzations like the Trade Union’s.
As a previous comment , a great vacuum now exist , waiting to be filled.
Achilling thought for those that live in Ireland.
[…] This is a topic I have visited in the past. It is dangerous to ignore our young people and attempt to smash them into line. The recession provides the perfect cover for doing that as RIF’s become more commonplace and uncertainty leads to societal problems. […]
Robert, look here:
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=670597577&ref=nf#/group.php?gid=107567645040&ref=nf
How about some fun and games for the forum.First up we have the well known game called “the prisoners dilemma”Lets be coy and call Fianna Fail prisoner 1 and lets call the Banks prisoner 2….Now for the higgorant among ye Ill just zip over to wiki and steal their description of the game.Big shhhhsh….. “Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies (defects from the other) for the prosecution against the other and the other remains… Read more »
Folks, I just got this pop-up for saying that to jim (sorry jim, that I said something so offensive).
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/a-note-on-comments
So now we know both prisoners decided to stay silent (in the best traditions of the Mafia).The initial sentence was loss of some head honcho’s from the Banks and loss of European and Local elections for Fianna Fail.BUT,BUT,BUT, the arresting Public and Markets did’nt buy that shit,and suspects were re-arrested on the steps of the courthouse.SOOOO,both suspects decided after a good chat and with the Altruistic motives need for co-operation or in plain person’s terms (threw in persons their instead of mans ,dont want to be tarred with fee paying,boys club,blah di blah meeeooowwww )”hang together or hang seperately”…Anyhoo suspects… Read more »
There’ll be another 1 in 4 report in a few years time,by the time the Bankers and ZANU-FF are finished with the jugglers et al…p.s.Mrs.Furry has you spoiled with that auld cocoa. Sleep well man.
Just doing a little research here and the thought popped into my mind.
Bilderberg really f**ked up.
Nite now
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/government-may-seek-to-extend-deposit-guarantee-1746363.html
So the government have split the guarantee and are extending the guarantee of all bank debts while thinking about extending the guarantee on deposits…
If the deposite guarantee is let expire, remove all your money from Irish banks….You have been warned, keep a very close eye on this
We must demand that this kills off NAMA….. If the banks debts are guaranteed then why buy the shite off them also…..Let them chase the developers, keep the politicians out of it
If NAMA goes ahead, time for the pitchforks….
Bankrupted TD = ‘banksTeD’ So we need to ask ourselves first are we voting for a ‘banksTeD’ and if we are when the revelations come clean the ‘banksTed’ has deceived us and should be jailed or at least be removed from office and lose all financial entitlements including pension rights . Maybe the electorate should insist ,in addition to maintaining the existing requirements ,that an independent financial banking audit be carried out on each and every elected representative to include ascertaining the following : What bank guarantees ( incl UK & NI ) are in place ; and How much… Read more »
I had been going to submit a profound piece on the national Debt/GDP ratio when I realized that the treatment of children in the orphanages and reformatorys, over at least 70 years has far greater implications for the Irish psyche than mere economic prognostications. Were these the other Pope’s Children who were forgotten in David’s book? Last week I wrote “Politicians at every level depend on keeping in touch with their electorate, but few electors raise questions of endemic corruption with their representatives.–Shame on all of us.” There is a word in Gaelic for such shame. TÃ¥mailteach. If it were… Read more »
Another Marie Antoinette moment yesterday; ” Told he was at the driving wheel when the economy crashed, Mr Cowen responded: “I’m sorry — the economy hasn’t crashed. It’s going through a severe contraction.” He said he didn’t accept the Government had blown the boom because everywhere he went he saw new hospitals and freshly-built schools and roads. Mr Cowen said the “swift and severe change in fortunes” had not been predicted by anybody.” Well now, thats ok then. Hopefully our contractions will lead to the birth of reality, something this Taoiseach is sadly lacking any grasp of. Since several notable… Read more »
not only did he of at least some of his economists know, but the crash is actually written in the genes of the entire debt based inflationary money system. exponentially rising debt will only keep going as long as the real economy is expanding ahead of it. once the credit bubbles started in the U.S and here at home it was end game.
again, its very simple,l either he knew it was coming or he didn’t.
if he knew adn did nothing: he’s negligent so he should go.
if he didn’t know: he’s incompetent so he should go
More money squandered in Harneys pursuit of failed UK NHS policies. “ONE OF Cork’s main hospitals said yesterday it would not participate in any discussions to implement a plan commissioned by the HSE that would see the centralisation of all acute hospital services in the city and county at Cork University Hospital. Mercy University Hospital chief executive Pat Madden said the board of the 152-year-old hospital had voted to reject a report commissioned by the HSE South on the reconfiguration of hospital services in Cork and Kerry. The report by Horwath Consulting Ireland and Teamwork Management Services recommends the transfer… Read more »
Huffnpuff greets you all from Sligo No time to lurk or blog. I’ve joined the Susan O’Keeffe campaign as a volunteer in Ireland North WEst. First time i’m actively involved in a campaign or party but I was energised by a certain man who is a neo-liberal on economic issues and arch conservative on social issues, so i decided to do what I could to prevent him being elected. i agree with creditcrunchr we have to look at the type of economy we want but we also need to look at the sort of society we want. boom and bust… Read more »
@Wills
This link should assist in your quest for a CDO MBA.
http://www.structuredcreditinvestor.com/breakingnews.asp
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/13/news/international/tully_ireland.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009051409
Interesting summary on page 2.
What Ireland needs now is a Simazine for clouds so they cannot rain. Something that kills any seeding possibility. That’s what’s killing this country and is the main reason the Romans never came here and properly sorted out the place.
I would like to get a sense of proportion of what is really going on. That news on this morning’s Morning Ireland regard the withdrawl of 2M Euro from the abused victims while the lawyers budget remained untouched nearly caused me to crash the car. We have really lost it guys. As for the DMcW’s article – stating the obvious, but with skill. Now, I would like to know how we can have a current deficit of 28Bn and keep it filled in with bonds when we all know they’ll never be paid back unless something serious and I expect… Read more »
This gives an interesting overview of some of the background to what has been, and quite possibly will be, going on:
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice
Simon Johnson was the Chief Economist of the IMF.
Furrylugs, Philip, two very interesting points on labour costs in the link Furry gave above and Philip said “Ugh!”: 1) “Denis O’Brien, the billionaire cellphone entrepreneur who also owns a chain of radio stations in Ireland: “I’d be extremely reluctant to invest in France or Germany because of the labor laws. You have too many rules and negotiations. In Ireland we can cut labor costs very quickly.” This tells the truth and counters the spin that Irish workers are the best paid in the EU. It also proves that ICTU is a self-serving cabal with no real interest whatsoever in… Read more »
Tim,
As usual you are talking out your arse. What are you suggesting – that nurses, teachers, and guards should get a three-fold pay increase?
Wake up will ya.
Paddy.
I seem to recall the Irish overthrowing the most powerful, most organised and most well-armed empire the world had ever seen. Why does a liver-lipped gobshite from Offaly pose such an insurmountable problem (his gargantuan gut aside)? Why are we in awe of a shower of self-serving yahoos? We have seen peaceful revolutions in eastern Europe – couldn’t we have one here? If a few thousand disgruntles turned up at the Dail and said ‘Brian, you’re fired’ what would he do? Call in the Defence Forces?…. Oooooh scary – those Air-Sea-Rescue helicopters might strafe the crowd with abseiling ropes and… Read more »