Brexit changes everything. The British will leave the EU. There can be little doubt about that. How and when it happens are now matters of debate, but it will come to pass. All the legalistic talk about whether it will be politically possible for the UK to leave and whether the British Parliament must sanction this is simply the technocratic fantasy of a profoundly undemocratic elite that has been traumatised by the referendum.
Last week, this column was written from England and maintained that lots of people who voted for Brexit are not racists, nationalists or little Englanders.
Many look at the EU and see a deeply undemocratic set of institutions that appear to believe more in their own narrow interests than the fact that they are supposed to represent the people of Europe.
Indeed, the vindictive reaction of the EU Commission in the past two weeks has been revelatory.
While Brexit has undoubtedly revealed the profound lack of political leadership in both main parties in the UK, not to mention the meltdown of the top brass of the Leave campaign, it has also opened up a chasm between the EU officials and the politicians of national governments. If you doubt this, just compare the cautious stance of Enda Kenny with the much more truculent stance of his former henchman Phil Hogan, who is now a fully paid-up member of the Brussels echo chamber.
While Kenny is speaking about the various different relationships that need to be considered before the UK’s next move, Hogan is insisting that the British trigger Article 50 as soon as possible.
Of course, the main player in all this will be Germany. Germany calls the shots. Over the past five years, the pretence of a European Germany has given way to the reality of a German Europe. This is the new deal.
As a result of this, the Eurozone is Ersatz Deutschland, where the rest of the countries are little more than policy eunuchs, emasculated by German fiscal straightjackets and German creditor obsessions.
Again, if you doubt this, watch the ongoing implosion of the Italian banking system, which will dwarf even the great Irish banking crisis.
Italy wants to recapitalise its banks using government money because it fears a complete collapse of its crippled economy. Germany is saying no. As always, German decisions reflect the interest of German industry.
This is entirely understandable. It means that the interests of German carmakers that sell tens of thousands of cars to the UK every year will influence the attitude of German politicians towards the deal that Britain gets. Already Angela Merkel is urging the Commission to back off and give the British time to sort themselves out.
So because of German industrial interests, Italy, the friend with the broken banking system, will be treated harshly by Germany, while the UK, now the putative political enemy, will be treated more favourably. In short, the anti-EU Brits will get a better hearing from the Germans than the pro-EU Italians.
It is this apparent mistreatment of so-called allies that initially drove Brexit and is driving Marine Le Pen’s support in France and will determine the background noise to the Italian general election later this year. All this also puts Germany on a collision course with the EU institutions that are seeking to punish the UK for the temerity of Brexit. Germany will look to get the Brits the most access to EU market in the same way as Germany shouted loudly about Vladimir Putin’s annexation of bits of Ukraine but still took Russia’s oil and gas. This is Realpolitik – and the Commission had better get used to it.
So I suspect that after lots of shouting and roaring, the Brits will get a trade deal with the EU not unlike Norway’s. I also suspect that the free flow of labour – the sticking point preventing the UK getting a quick deal now – might change after a year of elections in Europe.
Next May, the French go to the polls. Le Pen is riding high in the polls. It will be a disaster for the EU if she wins. But even a strong second place showing by the National Front in the presidential election will cause the EU to think again about the political feasibility of free, unfettered immigration from Eastern Europe.
By the time the British get to negotiate, the EU’s central position on migration might have shifted to accommodate the political reality that millions of European voters don’t want free and open borders.
Meanwhile, the weakest man in Europe is Italy. The country’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, knows that to win the election he has to prevent Italian banks from going bust and to do this he has to ignore Brussels and pump government money into the banks. So Italy too is going rogue.
In the next 12 months, the EU institutions will be fighting battles with major countries like France and Italy, not just with the exiting British. All this gives Ireland time to figure out our strategy.
We need to attract as much mobile capital that is holding off investing in the UK because of the uncertainty as possible. This means shouting loud and clear that Ireland is open for business.
Rather than sneer at the British for going it alone, we should cheer the opportunities that this presents as the only English-speaking country, with low capital taxes that has open, and unfettered, access to the markets of Europe.
When everyone else is losing their heads and the Europeans and British are at loggerheads, now is the time for clear thinking here within Official Ireland. That can’t be too much to ask for, surely?
‘the Brits will get a trade deal with the EU not unlike Norway’s’ David McWilliams “Brexit means Brexit. There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin through the backdoor, and no second referendum.” Theresa May. ‘After urging U.K. officials to seriously consider a second Brexit referendum, Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson recently met with Britain’s leading candidate for Prime Minister.’ http://fortune.com/2016/07/06/sir-richard-branson-regrexit-leader/ “You were never truly loved You have only been betrayed You were never truly nurtured By churches of the state You were left unprotected To these wild and fragile lands…. There’s no country… Read more »
David is correct. The mess inside the Eurozone is now about to come back centre stage.
Renzi attacked Germany’s largest bank, and says that it is 100 times a bigger problem than the bank problem in Milan. I don’t think anybody has yet verified whether or not this is true. But for Angela Merkel, who is accustomed to getting whatever she wants from whomever she wants in the Eurozone, this is a serious blow. Renzi might be the next Eurozone PM to resign.
Hi Deco and David, The article is very good no question. However I have invented a little short story to illustrate a very important point which in my view no one seems to be focusing on. Imagine Enda Kenny and an assistant are painting finishing foreman working for the owners of the titanic. They are sent on the ship on it’s maiden voyage to check the paint in the last remaining doors in the cabins deep in the bowls of the ship in the steerage section. Kenny remarks, “you know the painters were excellent only one small splash of paint… Read more »
Before starting another Club Med bailout, maybe now would be a good time to review the Greek “bailout” to see if it really is working.
http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2016/07/06/patras-homeless-family-of-5-lives-in-carton-boxes-video/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+KeepTalkingGreece+%28Keep+Talking+Greece%29
No. It certainly is NOT working for Greek society. It might be ticking all the boxes for the likes of Suds and John Bruton. But it is definitely not a “success” regardless of what Frankfurt, Brussels or the lobbyists that lobby either power centres, would tell us.
Iceland is not in the EU, did not have a bank bailout, and is faring differently.
David, your clearheaded, non-hysterical thinking on this issue is outstanding.
Respect.
X] EU “as a so-called democracy” is close to deciding to operate Boycott-Disinvestment-Sanctions [ B.D.S. ] Policy against that “special little democracy in the Middle East” that is “mowing the lawn” again by the way. Y] The increasing underclass of England are seething with rage against : the City ; = Internal & the E.U. ; = External Especially because of : rampant pedophilia by many elite & connected celebrities ; Internal [ a la BBC ] wholesale corrupting of society through perverse laws & gratuitous media policy ; Internal & External typical livelihoods & standards of living abating ;… Read more »
David writes that ‘even a strong second place showing by the National Front in the presidential election will cause the EU to think again about the political feasibility of free, unfettered immigration from eastern Europe’. History has accelerated and geopolitics are in statu nascendi, so this is possible – of course if eastern European countries are offered something in exchange – because – first of all, with the resolute governments they (the Visegrád Group countries) now have, they can block any such move – bear in mind, it is the UK now that is outside the EU’s decision making process… Read more »
Well worth reading for dear TDs http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/01/business/after-brexit-finding-a-new-london-for-the-financial-world-to-call-home.html?_r=0 ‘Dublin’s main drawback is its relatively small size (1.8 million people in the metropolitan area) and lack of infrastructure.’ I know, I know – on the latter, everyone is going to jump in and say ‘sure we know it’. But if all know it, why no one is putting any pressure on those who decide? For example on Dublin City Council or Dublin Bus to modernise and stop blocking competition like in the infamous Swords Express case (simple things like timetables that are actually working, 4 out of 4 buses from Bray going… Read more »
Official Ireland is concerned with losing face/preserving their own (decreasing) credibility. That credibility is wafer thin right now. Italy, which is overcome with fear, will get controlled. Britain, which makes a brave stand, gets respect. It is the opposite of what the have-been-in-power-superficially-respectable political parties… and the Irish Times/RTE have been telling us. Official Ireland is lambasting the British for being the other side of an argument that Official Ireland is losing. They will press emotive buttons. They will concentrate on aspirational social conditioning to get as many as possible to be obedient to their betters. There will be one… Read more »
What does a financial centre do? Is London a financial centre for the world or for Europe? If Germany does not support the Italian banks where does that leave European finance? Where will Italian firms get loans? If Renzi pumps euros into the Italian financial system what can Germany do. A lot of the current European position on banking matters makes no sense. If you were a financial firm you would maintain a presence in London and Europe and wait to see how much the Europeans screw up. Perhaps buying London property in two years time would be a very… Read more »
Germany reaches an amazing conclusion – that raping and groping their women – because the refugees believe that every woman that not look like a tent is a prostitute – is actually NOT ok.
If they keep pissing off all nations around, the US may reach another amazing conclusion: that they should have perhaps paid Poland and Greece money for WWII before they start complaining about the UK and about how much they contribute to their Mitteleuropean Fourth Reich project, as they constantly do in their (very good) TV
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36726095
The EU is now descending into outright farce. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-07/unprecedented-decision-europe-will-sanction-spain-portugal-over-deficits-while-ignor The Dutch FinMin has made the most astounding of statements [ “These rules contain some flexibility, but in this case the flexibility has been used up,” Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Finance Minister who leads the group of his euro-area counterparts, said in The Hague earlier Thursday. “When I look at the numbers I really have to conclude that Spain and Portugal did too little.” ] Well one wonders what numbers he is looking at. Clearly not the numbers in relation to Italian bank bad loan rates. And not the numbers in… Read more »
“France is still controlled by the same 6000 people who all know each other professionally (and socially), who are directing the rest what to do, and who seem to be making Le Pen more popular” – you mean this crowd? http://www.godf.org/index.php/accueil/index/liens/accueil/nom/Accueil They even had their own Foreign Minister in Poland (prof. Geremek), and their nominated their Prime Minister (Ms Hanna Suchocka). I am not joking – their leader came down to Poland with a 3 day visit, which he spent in the castle in the west of Poland with Ms Suchocka, whereupon a woman no one knew became a Prime… Read more »
prof. Geremek = Prof. Geremek (I do not want to denigrate him, even though he was a Communist spying on Polish diaspora in Paris, wrote a thesis on French prostitutes and beggars in Middle Ages, accused Poland in UNESCO of persecuting ‘Jews, Gypsies and Sintu’, whereupon he, as a Minister, was not able to reply to our official enquiry as to who and where in Poland are Sintu, and – rather aptly – he died in a car crash while driving and having a blow job with a prostitute (and you think Mr Nico Rosberg was aggressive with Mr Lewis… Read more »
This article applies if all you are worried about is economics. Although they are a big thing, what about the prevention of future European wars? What about the refugee crisis? Who is going to take a moral non-nationalistic point of view. Every nationalist seems to want to let some other country have the refugees. It reminds one of Europe and the USA when the Nazis were forcing the Jews to flee. Lets take Ireland historically. Or any of the European nations for that matter. They all consisted of mini-fiefdoms warring with each other. Eventually they united e.g. Italy, and Germany… Read more »
Another headache unfolding.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-07/europes-bank-crisis-arrives-germany-%E2%82%AC29-billion-bremen-landesbank-verge-failure
Low interest rate policy simply does not work. It underestimates the pricing of risk. It produces “something for nothing” growth, followed by spectacular failures.
To D.McW. Thank you for this article it is better balanced than your previous two articles. The most cogent statement-“As a result of this, the Eurozone is Ersatz Deutschland, where the rest of the countries are little more than policy eunuchs, emasculated by German fiscal straightjackets and German creditor obsessions.” is an admission that Ireland is an emasculated vassal state of Germany and Europe. A reading of Jacob Rees Mogg’s well articulated reasons for Britain to take the road of freedom could lead to a parrallel reasoning regarding the eunuchdom of Ireland. Britain has shown in the best way possible… Read more »
The rule of law is dead in the US
Democracy never ever existed in the EU
Who needs to associate with either.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/hillary-clinton-could-get-away-with-murder-defining-deviance-down/
Agreed
Deco is on a roll.
good reading elsewhere.
I’ll wait for the banking system to crash the world economies.
Europe is more broke than the US and that is going some.
The central bankers have all in their thrall.
Forget about emigrating to Canada. The grass is not necessarily greener elsewhere. Friend, I look back with deep gratitude on my nineteen years in Parliament, including my decade in the federal Cabinet. The federal Conservative Party is now beginning a process of renewal, made easier by the fantastic interim leadership of my friend, the Hon Rona Ambrose! I have been encouraged by thousands of Conservatives to lead that renewal by pursuing the party leadership. I thank them all for their confidence in me. However, after a great deal of reflection, I have come to the conclusion that I can more… Read more »
A pleathora of Female leaders on the world stage now : Angela Merkel Teresa May Hillary Clinton ; Well, not yet for Hillary / Kill-ary. But, she is the favorite with the bookies. I wonder how her fans would react upon learning of what another female — Irish American Cathy O’Brien — has to say about Feminazi Hillary ; Google.com Search Terms hillary clinton AND cathy o’brien AND compensation for MK Ultra AND youtube Warning ; Even some of the content from reputable links herein may be very upsetting & too graphic for viewers. https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=cr&ei=VxZ_V5GyFYnmvATT26DoBg&fg=1#q=hillary+clinton+AND+cathy+o%27brien+AND+compensation+for+MK+Ultra+AND+youtube These accusations against Hillary Clinton… Read more »
Ireland will be facing an interesting scenario in the Brexit negotiation process. We simply cannot afford ourselves to be used as a means of controlling Britain. That would alienate the many Irish in Britain. This is not an option. It is in our interests that Britain gets a very good deal, so as to ensure a continued successful relationship with Britain. SF are good at talking militaristic aggressive patriotism. But it is often empty sloganeering and bravado. We have a vital interest that must be served. That is our objective. It will not help that we have liars like Micheal… Read more »
‘The constant gardener’ The novelist Paul Kingsnorth on but he has written extensively about the claim – or lack of it – that England makes on the English. In Real England, he went searching for what English identity means at a time when displaying the St George’s flag can be read simplistically as a sign of football-hooligan racism. “It’s terrible,” he says. “It’s very sad. There’s an Anglophobia stalking Britain. It’s not acceptable to be an English patriot in the way you can be a Scottish or a Welsh patriot. Those are small countries that were attached to a bigger… Read more »
A typical none story – lawsuit threat because 500 people might have been denied to vote in the referendum (compare that to Austria when they doctored 30,000 votes to select the Green candidate – Greens are usually immature Reds, even though the green movement originated from the 19th century conservative German movement and was then hijacked by the Left; the difference was bigger than 500 votes anyway. It looks like they have nothing to write, why do not they write about arresting yesterdays match where Germany was in my opinion a better team (I could not resist thinking of their… Read more »
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/employment-report-farce-and-more-on-the-comeyclinton-connection/
Corruption is endemic, it allows the farcical Ponzi scheme that is the fiat toilet paper currency and the criminal fraud of manipulations both financial and political.
It all starts with the central bankers using unlimited mythical cash to buy the favours of the politicians. The rest is history. Look after yourself. Nobody else is.
Looks interesting from a Polish-Canadian [ I think ] website about Social Credit ;
http://www.michaeljournal.org/juvdm/cartoons-cs/thumbnails.html
Website author’s drawing method ;
http://www.michaeljournal.org/juvdm/cartoons-cs/guestbook-2.html
And, in coasting down the list of articles, there should be some to tickle ur fancy ;
The Social Credit section is 1/2 way down.
http://www.michaeljournal.org/articles.htm
Ref. http://www.patriotnetwork.info/Citizens_rule_book.htm Excerpt 1 of 2 ; A Summary of the Communist Manifesto The Communist Manifesto represents a misguided philosophy, which teaches the citizens to give up their RIGHTS for the sake of the “common good,” but it always ends in a police state. This is called preventive justice. Control is the key concept. Read carefully: Abolition of private property. Heavy progressive income tax. Aboliton to all rights of inheritance. Confiscation of property of all emigrants and rebels. A Central bank Government control of Communications and Transportation Government ownership of factories and agriculture. Government control of labor. Corporate farms, regional… Read more »
Wikipedia article about above book ;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_Rule_Book
1.
How relevant is this book for the small people to deal with :
1.1
The Irish State ?
1.2
their toleration of their State / Country being in E.U. ?
‘In the coming economic war, neutrality won’t fly’ http://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/in-the-coming-economic-war-neutrality-wont-fly-34869193.html Brexit is the opening battle, but does the war ends with the collapse of the British £? Or the collapse of the Euro & the disintegration of the EU?….*thinking* Is Official Ireland in ‘can’t see the woods for the trees mode’ We think so, but that’s ok. Place you bets, folks. Will the Euro survive? Or the EU? If so, the best strategic interest of Official Ireland is indeed ‘economic war’ with Core UK England & Wales, as a proxy pawn on the chessboard moved by Juncker & Schauble. If, however,… Read more »
I have some questions as regards the capital “that is holding off investing in the UK because of the uncertainty”. 1. Where is it? 2. Who owns it? 3. If it might be removed from somewhere else would it be missed? 4. Also if “we” were to attract it, where would it go? 5. And how would it generate return for its owner and 5. How would this generate return for us? 7. And how would “we” access that return? And if accessing return from foreign capital investment is really what Ireland needs or would do then why does it… Read more »
If the EU can’t handle the current immigration issues imagine how hard it is going to be when…
http://lofi.phys.org/news/2016-06-robots-shouldnt.html
The Swiss at least seem to be vaguely aware of the issue.
Governments of the world and citizens too need to become aware of the future robotics can create for us.
We need to be proactive rather than fearful.
We need to take control of the opportunities this technology can present.
Buddhist Economics ;
Google Search Terms ;
buddhist economics
https://www.google.ie/#q=buddhist+economics
e.g.s
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddhist_economics
Schumacher on Buddhist Economics
Schumacher Center for New Economics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Eo3k-jCHRo
I will leave it at this about : Buddhist Economics & Ernst Friedrich “Fritz” Schumacher http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/03/13/buddhist-economics-oxymoron-or-idea-whose-time-has-come/ Excerpt ; Buddhist economics: oxymoron or idea whose time has come? By Kathleen Maclay, Media relations MARCH 13, 2014 UC Berkeley economist Clair Brown acknowledges that ; “Buddhist economics” may seem like an oxymoron. Nevertheless, she’s teaching a sophomore seminar on the topic this semester — the campus’s second such offering over the past year. Professor Clair Brown asked herself ; “How would Buddha teach Econ. 1 ?” Brown said she created the one-unit Buddhist Economics course after students in her Introductory Economics (Econ… Read more »
“We need to attract as much mobile capital that is holding off investing in the UK because of the uncertainty as possible. This means shouting loud and clear that Ireland is open for business….. we should cheer the opportunities that this presents as the only English-speaking country, with low capital taxes that has open, and unfettered, access to the markets of Europe. …now is the time for clear thinking here within Official Ireland. That can’t be too much to ask for, surely?” David McWilliams Yes, it is too much to ask. Dublin is fun for a weekend, but beyond that,… Read more »
And, what would u know, but providence is being good to Barroso the Champagne Socialist again ;
If I remember correctly, he was nasty to the Irish nation when he had the chance.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/jose-manuel-barroso-to-become-next-head-of-goldman-sachs-international
It occurs to me that the EU has been quite quick to put the boot into Ireland any chance it gets and much slower to pull the trigger on other delinquents. Why Ireland, a small pimple on the ar$ehole of the EU. In the US there is a very strong Irish American caucus and then there is the bible belt Christian community. Democrats v Republixans. So what is so special about Ireland? Is the Irish influence (not official irelabd btw) a lot greater than we perceive. The EU has managed to separate Ireland from the UK. Divide and conquer. Official… Read more »
Norway’s European Vision
BBC Radio 4 ; In Business with Peter Day
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06wj1bt
Last on
Sun 24 Jan 2016
21:30
BBC RADIO 4
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Norway isn’t a member of the European Union, but does business with the EU.
Is it a model for other countries? Jonty Bloom speaks to people working in a range of businesses – including Norway’s vital fishing industry – and asks about the advantages and disadvantages of the arrangement.
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/increasingly-soros-is-seen-behind-the-break-up-of-europe/