There’s nothing better than a glass of sugary coca cola the chilly morning after too many Côte du Rhônes to clear the head. I’m in Paris about to head south to Marseilles trying to make sense of this fascinating French election and, more to the point, trying to understand why financial markets are — up to now — so sanguine, given the enormity of what is at stake.
Even before the shooting of a policeman on Thursday, this election was up in the air with polls saying Le Pen on the Right and Mélenchon on the Left were in with a chance of going through to the next round. If either of these two were to win the Presidential election outright, France would veer off on an economic and political course that would have dramatic implications for Ireland. The centrist Macron remains in the lead and widely expected to beat Le Pen in the second round.
France is the 6th largest economy in the world, a world leader in many sectors, with income per head of close to €40,000. But in common with other Latin countries in Europe, it has an unemployment problem. General unemployment remains in double digits and this figure rises to 26% amongst French youth. Latest polls indicated that the youth have become radicalized, with 38% saying that they will vote for the National Front.
This election is not about economics.
Although economists might beg to differ, feelings not figures win elections.
And this election, like so many others in the West in the past year, is about feelings. The “who are we” question has propelled itself to centre stage.
As in the UK and the US with Brexit and Trump, inequality and perceptions of inequality are a recurrent theme, with the populist Right and Left, identifying a metropolitan elite as being out of touch, cosseted and arrogant.
But the real issue is race and how France see itself.
Call it religion, identity, culture, ethnicity, call it what you will, but ultimately this “us and them” dimension makes the election so significant. It is now about Islam, terrorism, security, open borders and peace of mind.
When I say I’m in Paris, I’m actually in a part of Paris that visitors rarely frequent, sitting in the slightly down-at-heel café Le Khédive in Place Victor Hugo, just opposite the Basilica of St Denis. We are only a few hundred yards from the street where the “Bataclan” killers were eventually surrounded by French police in 2015. From this vantage point, it is not difficult to see the deep divisions in this French election.
Remember France is still under a state of national emergency following the attack in Nice last year, heightened again by Thursday’s Champs Elysees attack.
St Denis was the traditional burial place of the French kings. It is steeped in French history. It was here, in this basilica behind me, in 1492 where Joanne of Arc was blessed before marching out to face the English foe. In terms of France’s Catholic history, there are few holier sites. But today St Denis has the largest Muslim population of any French area. The Cathedral is empty, yet the Mosque is full.
We are only a few miles from the pomp and majesty of Quai D’Orsey, the Louvre and the millions that marvel at Paris every year, but this place it is a world away. There are precious few smiling tourists’ selfies taken here. Not only is St Denis home to a burgeoning young Muslim population, it also has the highest number of young African immigrants. The smells, sounds and colours of the bustling morning market are more Marrakesh than Montmartre.
St Denis and hundreds of other suburbs like it all around the country are the front lines in an election that is about the heart of soul of France, what it means to be French and ultimately who is and who is not French.
As such, it is the natural successor to the nativist surge of Brexit and Trump, where feelings trumped figures; notions trumped facts and nostalgia defeated all. These popular insurrections are driven by nostalgia, a yearning for a lost time and place, somewhere just in the recent past, when things were better, more simple and more secure. Nostalgia means when Trump says “Make America Great Again” he is referring to an idealized America, not so long ago when the United States was great. He wants to lead his people into the future by taking them back to somewhere. Similarly, when the Brexiteers said “Take Back Control” they imply a mythical somewhere, again not so long ago, when Britons had control. The UK referendum was an opportunity to go back to those times before control was given away by someone to someone else.
In France, the National Front has their similar elegiac rallying cry “On est chez nous” they respond at mass rallies to Madame Le Pen, meaning, “this is our place”. The casual almost colloquial use of “our place” rather than the more abrupt and pompous like “our country”, gives the message a comforting, homely, common-sense feel, in the same way as you’d ask mates to come back to “your place” after the pub, rather than the more formal “your house”. It’s friendly and exclusive at the same time.
The battle comes down to a vision of France. One is a cosmopolitan vision of an open, deracinated, post-Catholic European France. The other is a nationalist, closed, but sovereign France, comfortable with its heritage, operating in its own self-interest, within a significantly altered European Union.
This cosmopolitan vs. nativist struggle will have profound effects on the economy, not just the French economy but also the European economy.
If Le Pen, or had he made it through the first round, Mélenchon were to win, they’d both try to take the French out of the Euro, close France’s borders to trade, capital movements and in Le Pen’s case, immigrants.
At the moment, the betting suggests that the centrist Macron is still favorite in a run-off against Le Pen and thus, the power of cosmopolitan France endures. Macron means more of the same. However, this won’t be enough because longer term, there is a sense that this country is on the decline. Such an economic backdrop will only encourage a more radical and more populist vision of France’s future.
Immigration isn’t going away, the EU isn’t about to become popular once more, the nativist trends Le Pen champions are evident everywhere and the ‘who are we” debate will just become louder.
Marine Le Pen is onto this and has time on her side. She is only 48, so she can sit in opposition, building her base and biding her time. She will be a sprightly 53 in 2022. With close to 40% of those between 18-24 saying that they will vote for Le Pen, the National Front could well be the party of the future.
As I consider this vista while paying for my coke, coffee and croissants here in Place Victor Hugo in St Denis, the sage political assessment of Hugo, the great 19th century French intellectual appear to be fittingly apt over a century later. It was Victor Hugo who after all summed up political upheavals when he intoned;
Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.
Very good discussion on yesterday’s M. Finucane show on election in France and housing. I thought I’ll share this with all of you: first of all, Mr Colm Ó Tórna wrote an, in my opinion, e x c e l l e n t letter, in which he asked some questions that warrant a debate on the state of the post-modern Irish soul: http://www.pressreader.com/ireland/irish-independent/20170413/282243780459151 Then, instead of having a rational debate, Mr Rob Sadlier of Rathfarnham (btw, place of my first settlement in Dublin), a well known Dublin solicitor with bad spelling (he writes “god” instead of “God”), claimed that… Read more »
Mr François Fillon has already expressed his support for Mr Macron: “L’abstention n’est pas dans mes gènes. (…) Il n’y a pas d’autre choix que de voter contre l’extrême droite. Je voterai pour Emmanuel Macron” And so did prime minister, Bernard Cazeneuve: “La présence d’une candidate d’extrême droite au second tour de l’élection présidentielle, 15 ans après le choc d’avril 2002, appelle une position claire et forte de tous les Républicains. C’est la raison pour laquelle je les appelle solennellement à voter Emmanuel Macron au second tour pour battre le Front national et faire échec à son projet funeste de… Read more »
Of course, Germans expressed their support for Mr Macron too (mind you, in the capacity of the Foreign Minister Deparment, not as a party): “Auswärtiges Amt ? @AuswaertigesAmt .@sigmargabriel zu #Frankreichwahl: Bin froh, dass @EmmanuelMacron Wahlen anführen wird.Er war der einzige wirklich pro-europäische Kandidat 20:20 – 23 Apr 2017” Few people know that Madame Le Pen was in Poland (she gave an interview) recently and she desperatly wanted to talk Mr Jaroslaw Kaczynski into supporting her, but preferring to bet on the Trans-Atlantic alliance with the Mr Trump, he refused. Madame Le Pen got a bit angry and you then… Read more »
2 observations of mine on the election: 1. Madame Le Pen, having been reaching 30% in regional elections, has returned to a support of 22% – this is the level of support for her father 15 years ago. A lot has to change so that nothing changes. 2. The most attacked candidate was by far Mr Fillon, not Madame Le Pen – which would indicate the establishment considered Madame Le Pen the lesser evil for them. Interestingly, in Paris, the place of biggest recent immigration, Madame Le Pen has only received 5% (though should we talk about immigration as a… Read more »
Regarding election and religion, Montaigne Institut in France has carried out extensive research on Muslim community in France (both immigrants and native). 29% said that they do adher to French law, but to Sharia law. The same 29% participate in prayers, the rest are secular Muslims so to say. A very interesting result is that there is… less Muslims in France they one previously thought! 5.6% instead of 10% (ages 15 and older). But out of people aged 25 and lower, 10% are Muslims, and out of them, half of them are extremists (the extremuist also tend to low educated… Read more »
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Morning David. “trying to understand why financial markets are — up to now — so sanguine, given the enormity of what is at stake” I suspect the markets know whoever takes control they will be forced to do the same thing and that is either print or borrow more money which means a bigger bubble going forward. Brogan is blue in the face from telling you the money printing/borrowing issue is beyond the point of mathematical no return. “with income per head of close to €40,000” What kind of a nonsense of a statement is that especially when read in… Read more »
“I was quite surprised to find out that Saudi Arabia banned Muslim Brotherhood in their own state”
I am surprised you are surprised?!
Michael.
Tony Brogan April 23, 2017 at 10:07 pm http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-manifesto-macron-idUKKBN17G1A0 “France is blocked by the self-serving tendencies of its elite,” he told supporters at a rally in the southern French town of Pau, before lowering his voice and adding: “And I’ll tell you a little secret: I know it, I was part of it.” Macron is the choice of the elite all the while being promoted as anti establishment. France has the same battle against the central bankers as does the US, as do we all!! This column is written by a central banker and is a good reason the issue… Read more »
“Le Monde quoted a source familiar with the debates within the French ruling class, who described Macron as “the man that le Siècle [the most important Parisian elite club] had always dreamt of: a left-winger implementing a pro-business policy.” More than any other candidate, Macron has the career most typical of France’s elites. This in itself offers substantial proof that his desire to build a new political force — “neither on the Right, nor on the Left” — and to ally with the centrist party Modem aligns with the strategy of at least a substantial section of the French ruling… Read more »
“The battle comes down to a vision of France. One is a cosmopolitan vision of an open, deracinated, post-Catholic European France. The other is a nationalist, closed, but sovereign France, comfortable with its heritage, operating in its own self-interest, within a significantly altered European Union.” Rather the battle is between those who wish to destroy the nation state and those who wish to control an amorphous globular jelly concoction ruled by the banker globalists. The fight is freedom or facism, freedom or serfdom. The western industrial democracies have been under attack from the globalist forces for the last 100 years… Read more »
Grzegorz,
Come on, this is not your blog.
Yes, it gives me time to get breakfast , Mike. :-)
The real significance of this and recent elections is that “radicalism” of all shades is becoming the norm.
This time round the EU may get the French president they want but if they continue on their current path, refusing to acknowledge the real problems that exist in the EU then in five years the results of elections in France and elsewhere may well result in much more radical election results (not necessarily better equipped winners} and “Project Globalism” coming to an abrupt halt.
President Trump may find that during his second term he is no longer a lone voice.
I am sure I linked to this excellent article by Peter Hitchens a few months ago. Like David he also made his way to St Denis’s Basilica. http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2016/11/sens-and-sensibility-a-few-days-on-another-planet-.html “But the Revolution converted it into a windowless stone box full of the corpses of the great, whose macabre and rational tombs. I cannot work out how it still happens to have a cross on top of its dome… The St Denis basilica, now surrounded by one of the most Islamic districts of Paris, is one of the most beautifully desolate things I have ever seen. It reminds of how unsuccessful were… Read more »
“Latest polls indicated that the youth have become radicalized, with 38% saying that they will vote for the National Front.” labeling the youth as radical is totally wrong. It is the governing elite who are the radicals, demanding to change the country from what it was to something else. They are the radicals. The youth merely want a return to a more structured France where there was a reasonable chance of family life and employment. The radicals also include those immigrants who insist on changing the domestic population to activities that suit them the immigrant. Demanding sharia law instead of… Read more »
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-21/why-nothing-matters-central-banks-have-bought-record-1-trillion-assets-2017 Central bankers continue to fertilize the economy. Injections of cash sit in bank reserves, idle. Now directly own the stock market and buy shares to raise prices and also buy bonds to keep the interest rates down. The trouble is , it is all nitrogen fertilizer. All the plants grow feverishly without any substance. All leaf and no root, seeds or fruits. When harvested there is no crop, just a tangle of vegetation that soon rots away and the soil is depleted of nutrients. That is today’s economy, all show and no grow. The central banks balance sheet will… Read more »
This will throw the cat in amongst the pigeons….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-24/trump-order-corporate-tax-rate-cut-15-load-2-trillion-extra-debt
Trump is making a gamble, on the state of the finances of the US.
Basically, bring back business, and then spend less on social intervention to fix broken cities.
Make America Business-worthy again ?
The problem for Ireland, is that our version of capitalism includes a lot of oligarchies, and some extreme malinvestments. It also caters for a capital misallocation process, via bailed out banks that NEVER learn.
I think David is correct on what will happen eventually. Some speculate about whether Macron is the French Blair. Or the French Trudeau. Or even the French Obama. I reckon he is more Hollande 2.0. The real losers here are the centre-right, and the centre left. The two large, wealthy, powerful, political machines both picked loser candidates. They tried to have an open debate about governance. And Fillon is correct – French needs a bit of Thatcherism. The French state is large, protected, and controls capital, to the detriment of the rest of the economy. Hamon went too far left,… Read more »
Is the only directin from here…..downwards ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/25/world-stocks-hit-all-time-high-second-straight-session-euro/
Print-Baby-Print. (with apologies to Sarah Palin, and Janet Yellen).
The same article indicates how the UK is now looking at how to manage it’s borrowing problem.
In Ireland, our institutional state, is demanding yet more debt.
Borrow-baby-borrow.
New National Maternity Hospital.
Deal to build it on St. Vincent’s campus done and dusted almost.
Almost slipped thru unnoticed.
Politicians love fanfare announcements usually but not this time, for some reason.
Then the citizen’s assembly issue their recommendation on another abortion referendum.
Bang – ownership of the new hospital suddenly becomes loudly public.
What the fuck is/was going on here?
Pregnant woman are treated like second class citizens in this country.
Absolutely no way should any religious organisation have any say in the running of our new (or old) national maternity hospital.
They are correct to have large hospitals and less of them. In fact Dublin only needs two hospital locations, and one of those should be on the M50.
Again we should be building to scale, and efficiency – and on the transport routes for the sake of the employees, the patients and the visitors.
But surely Blanchardstown or Tallaght would have been more suitable locations given the westward movement of Dublin, and the access to the national motorway network.
Likewise with respect to the National Children’s hospital.
“Why is it that many, if not all, of us think twice before we say what we really think or believe? Have we been silenced by the popular hecklers? Are we afraid? Is there a cultural inquisitor who stalks us all? Then, why is it that so many of us who know better about so much that we see around us cower and speak in hushed, mousy voices?” … Justice Clarence Thomas
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1493129340.php
Epiphany time,
And now there are an increasing number of anecdotal rumors of central banks creating the money to actually buy equities and commercial debt to keep stock markets up? What the #*! &%?
At the risk of repeating myself, again I ask, but with a more strident, hysterical undertone of soul-searing trauma to my prolonged, pitiful wail of dismay, “ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME?”
http://www.michaelsavage.wnd.com/2017/04/michael-savage-newsletter-unfortunately-the-reaction-will-come/
ESPECIALLY FOR GRZEGORZ’s ARCHIVE OF INTERESTING ARTICLES ; This article has some real gems of info. / fact. Relevant to : THE IRISH ISLES situation & yonder to THE BRITISH ISLES situation impacting on us here in THE IRISH ISLES EU as project Freemasonry ; Ultimately running the show in the South of Ireland & the North East of Ireland False Flag terrorism “Contrived” Mass Immigration By Jude Duffy August 3, 2016, Anno Domini INTRO & CONTINUUM [ BODY ] [ EXCERPT ONLY ] Contrary to what some in the alternative media suggest, Ireland, not Italy, is the birthplace of… Read more »
https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/robson-pellerin/the-environment-a-true-story?ref=thanks_share
More EU Rope, anybody http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-25/sudden-death-greek-widows-pensions-new-criteria-cuts-push-1000s-more-poverty As John Bruton said, there is a need for “more EU patriots”. Yep. More people who are prepared to serve the new imperial racket. Brute also admired John Redmond who sent young men to their death in defence of the old empire. No Of course Brute is an EU patriot. He is on multiple pensions. And he is also the main lobbyists of the Irish Financial Services Casino. The rich always win, the workers pay taxes. On the bright side….how much is Phil “Irish Water” Hogan getting ? What about Pee Flynn’s pension ? Is… Read more »
Paris to Marseille, nice – I’ll be making that same trip in July, looking forward to it. Haven’t decided yet whether to get the train or drive it. What do you recommend lads?
I have less than zero interest in the French election though. Don’t know, don’t care.
Although I did read yesterday that Marcon is 39 and his wife is 64. How odd. Don’t fancy your’s much mate.
Mind you, my own wife-to-be is 22 years younger than me so I guess people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.
Are! that weasel word “nativist.” Are the people of Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales nativist? If they are what are the implications.
Israel Won the 1st Round of the French Election
By Gordon Duff, Senior Editor of Veterans Today website
26 April 2017
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2017/04/26/israel-won-the-first-round-of-the-french-election/
HEADING ; Insider Confirms Illuminati Want Us Dead April 25, 2017 PREFACE ; Dutch financier Ronald Bernard confirms the Illuminati is “an annihilating force that hates our guts. It hates creation. It hates life. And it will do anything to destroy us completely.” He also confirms that all secret services serve these Satanists, who use child sacrifices to blackmail their members. Editor’s Note This has had broad circulation but the text is not widely available. Many people do not have 40 minutes to watch the video. Irma Schiffers in conversation with Ronald Bernard Here is the transcript of the English… Read more »
What is it about infrastructure plannign in this country, that it is played like a political football ? The majority of people know that the new location for the Children’s Hospital is has extreme accessibility issues. It is in the middle of a traffic bottleneck. Why is not being built in Connolly, on the M50, so that everybody can access it ? Even most of Dublin know finds Connolly Hospital more accessible than accessible than the location that the FG party has picked. Varadkhar has even deliberately made sure that locating it outside his constituency will ensure his long term… Read more »
Macron – in his own words. [ Macron at a feminism conference: “The identity is “A” equals “A”. There exist at least “A’s” and “B’s”. I didn’t want that “A” equals “B”.” Macron during an interview: “You don’t want to live in a box, do you? I don’t. And so, our life always happens “at the same time”, it is more complex than what we want to reduce it to.” Macron writing in “Le Journal du Dimanche”: “I have always accepted the vertical dimension, the transcendence, but at the same time, it has to be fully anchored in the immanent,… Read more »
And therein lies the challenge.
We have not responded with a plan to Brexit, and the change in British competitiveness.
We have not responded with a plan to Trump, and the push for changing tax and investment scenarios.
And in all likelihood we will not respond with a plan to counteract Hollande 2.0 in the Elysee Palace, producing verbal rubbish.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-26/trump-tax-cuts-add-much-7-trillion-debt Why Trump cannot cut taxes…. ….and why Ireland needs to get down the largesse of the institutional state, by having more efficient state investment, and less waste in the public sector. Proposition – Locate both the National Maternity Hospital AND the National Childrens Hospital in the same location. Suitable prime location is on the M50, @ Connolly Memorial in Blanchardstown. In fact make Blanchardstown the main hospital for the East region. Do it like other large cities do it. One large hyper efficient complex, that is easy to access, and has efficiency of scale. Proposition – Build the DART-U.… Read more »
US financial position graphic.
“”Most individual investors went to government indoctrination camps for 12 years, drank fluoridated water and have watched mainstream media Fake News propaganda their whole lives, so these are not the kind of people you want to be running in the same direction with! And, even worse, most institutional investors, while they went to private schools, they were still taught mostly useless and wrong information and then went for another 4 or 8 years of further indoctrination in colleges where they mostly learned absolutely useless Keynesian economics. The fact that both are maniacally bullish at this time is probably a good… Read more »
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-poland-idUKKBN17T362?il=0
Monsieur Macron, t’es rien qu’un petit connard. Va te faire enculer – vous ne serez jamais plus qu’une prostituée allemande!
House Prices ready to crash ?
https://www.henrymakow.com/2017/04/house-prices-ready-to-crash.html
Thought-provoking !
https://twitter.com/crimesofbrits
State will provide €300m towards private clinics in the new hospital.
So people like me will benefit – brilliant
People like – the ones who pay for everything twice usually unlike the freeloading water protesters.
I know Adam, I know.
Bespoke tranche opportunity anyone?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-04/goldman-sachs-hawks-cdos-tainted-by-credit-crisis-under-new-name
@Truthist
-> THIS IS WHY DAVID’S FIDDLING WILL MAKE NO DIFFERENCE
-> THE SPIRITUAL BATTLE IS HIDDEN
-> A MUST LISTEN
=> WORDS WILL NOT DO IT JUSTICE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEpcY5JU120
Brexit is a bad idea my bollocks;
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jan/07/uk-car-production-surpass-1972-record-2017
And if the Uk move to a skills based immigration policy then they should see the dole queues dropping and a massive increase in the velocity of money locally.
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/0428/870996-united-ireland/ Asking the impossible. Tusk is either out of touch or out of touch or……… So basically while everyone is criticising both the UK and Ireland governments for not having a Brexit plan we now know neither have the EU. Or the EU’s plan is to push Ireland out of the EU along with the UK. Now that might not be the worst idea IF the price was right. So is this the 50Bn, 60Bn or xxxBn € question that could sort out the exit in Brexit. The ECB could print it and send it over by DD. Handled properly… Read more »
Westside Story, revisited.
http://www.gopusa.com/?p=23609?omhide=true
It would answer our press better to ask Tusk, out straight – Why is he stirring shit.
He must know that the people of NI have a veto on a united ireland(UI) and will use it, even the Catholics might not vote for UI.
So given that he knows that UI isn’t a runner he should be asked out straight What is he playing out?
Question to you all.
Do you agree that the EU want Ireland to leave the EU at the same time as GB.
If you agree, what should Ireland’s negotiating position be if it accepts the inevitability of de facto expulsion from the EU.
If you disagree discuss the CTA as in how it would actually work in practice.
Ireland wants a CTA, The EU’s response is NO, a UI is a far better solution.
For the EU maybe, for Ireland it would be economic sabotage.
North Korea annoyed at Israel’s aggressive support for Israel’s bitch / proxy [ U.S.A. ]
https://sputniknews.com/military/201704291053144101-Pyongyang-threatens-to-punish-jerusalem/