Never mind the likes of Messi, Ronaldo or Drogba; never mind Barcelona, Chelsea or Real. In our house, when it comes to football at the weekends, there is only one team: the Cabinteely FC under-10s. Every Saturday morning, under the watchful eye of Michael, our Scottish manager who is Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish and David Moyes rolled into one, we head out from the supermarket car park in Ballybrack, travelling all over Dublin to do battle.
Schoolboy football tells you a lot about the recent changes in our country, about who lives where, what areas are growing and which are stagnant. It tells you where rents are rising, and where the demand for schools and facilities are at a premium.
The under-10s play in places that didn’t exist ten years ago against clubs that didn’t exist five years ago. We play against kids from all sorts of backgrounds. We played against a practically all-African side a few weeks back, and regularly come face-to-face with a team of Russian-speaking Lithuanian children who are drilled to within an inch of their lives. These Lithuanian nine-year olds spring the offside trap in a manner that would make George Graham’s Arsenal back four weep.
Further out, way past the M50 and down the M9 to places that used to be farmland, we encounter entire communities that have sprung up even since the collapse of the economy. In fact, there are many out here who I am sure never expected to still be here when little Sean reached the under-6s, let alone the under-10s. They are stuck and they will not be moving for a long time.
This week, these anecdotal observations from the sidelines were given some statistical veracity by the latest publication from the wonderful Central Statistics Office.
The interesting thing about economics and debts and currency crises and whether we default or not is that, irrespective of all these, life goes on. No matter what the general tone of the economy, people still fall in love, have children, move house and get on with the normal day-to-day rigmarole of life. This is uplifting because that is what we are supposed to do, and humans have enormous resilience in the face of adversity.
The latest census data published this week, goes a little deeper than the overall picture released a few weeks ago. What it shows is that the country is becoming increasingly urbanised (or at least suburbanised). But what is more interesting is that we are becoming a nation of renters.
What we see is that people are stuck where they are. In 2006, 322,000 people moved compared to 273,000 last year. This is the ‘full house’ syndrome that we see all over the country where parents, who thought they had their children raised, find their adult children back sleeping in same room they slept before they made their Holy Communion. How many of these people do you know?
We also see a big change in the number of people moving house, moving up or maybe moving out. Even in a slump, people will always be moving because family size changes, irrespective of the latest pronouncements from the troika.
In the year to April 2011, 114,617 people moved house. That is down from 145,864 over the same period in 2006. This is a dramatic 21 per cent fall in the number of people moving.
Given the increase in the overall population, we can see the impact of the credit crunch and – probably more than anything else – the stagnant job markets. When there are loads of jobs, people move around.
The other factor is the huge rise in the number of people renting. Four out of every five people who moved house last year are renting their new houses.
The most striking figure representing the collapse in mortgages and the credit crunch is that in 2006 close to 50,000 people changed house and used a mortgage to do so.
Last year, that figure had slumped to 14,707. This means that only one in every eight who are moving house is getting a mortgage. In Kildare, there has been a 33 per cent increase in the number of people moving into rented gaffs.
We see a huge increase in Dulchies – Dubs moving to the country. Nearly 100,000 Dubs left the capital to go to places like Kildare, Wicklow and Meath. These commuters are the Kells Angels. You will see them this summer at Croke Park, families where the dad will be wearing Dubs jerseys, the son will be in green and gold of the Royal county and the older daughter, daddy’s girl, may be in Dubs blue.
Two-thirds of people who now live in Meath were not born there and, of these, one in six are immigrants. This is a huge immigrant population by European standards, never mind those of Ireland.
Of all our immigrants, 32 per cent live in Dublin. So we are seeing the beginning of the process whereby Dubliners, born in the county, are moving out and they are being replaced by immigrants.
This is a trend that is becoming more and more pronounced. One quarter of all people who were born in Dublin now live outside the county, which reveals extraordinary internal migration.
This is leading to the urbanisation of former county towns. Among the larger towns, Portlaoise grew the fastest, with an increase of 38 per cent from 14,613 to 20,100, followed by Ashbourne (by 33 per cent), Cavan (29 per cent) and Balbriggan (28 per cent). The biggest town in the country is now Drogheda.
Now, when you put all this together, we see the imperative to get the
economy going again – and quickly.
If there are so many new families and they are not moving, they are not moving because they are in negative equity and can’t finance any further moves. They have young kids, the children who play against the Cabinteely FC under-10s. As food and fuel inflation rise, it takes a disproportionate amount of cash out of the pockets of young working parents. These people, the Pope’s Children, need a break on their debts, otherwise we will see mass default in the commuter belt.
The real strength of a country is its people, its human capital. The financial balance sheets with debts, negative equity and falling asset prices isn’t actually economics, it is accountancy.
Economics is about people, and our population is growing quickly; these people need to be given a chance otherwise they lose hope.
If anything underscores the urgency of getting the economy going, it is the rising population; otherwise, we could see the radicalisation of the suburbs. It has happened elsewhere in the past and a few more years of this and it will happen here.
When are we having the posters summer kickabout David?!
Wanderly Wagon
The relevance of this great puppet show now has made a mark on Irish Landscape .
Hollande intends to push growth (in the economies, in jobs)in the EuroZone. His seemingly modest demand that the ECB be empowered to lend to governments as well as banks is actually a radical change, lessening the stranglehold of the big banks on Europe. He needs to go further and insist that its mission be expanded to combat deflation and unemployment as well as inflation.
Here’s an excerpt on growth and the ECB from his latest speech.
http://www.businessinsider.com/francois-hollande-calls-on-the-ecb-to-lend-directly-to-states-2012-4?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=International%20Select&utm_campaign=International%20Select%20Mondays%202012-05-01
Hi David,
great post, the mention of Cabinteely FC though sent a shiver through my left leg, I remember breaking it as a fresh faced waddle-esque 13year old against our arch rivals.
Jumpers for goalposts orange slices at half time….great times :)
There used be a jewish team back then called Maccabi…wonder if they’re still going.
Josey Waddle
People are not moving because now they have become a bit more economic savvy and they know that houses are still away overpriced. The AVERAGE price for 3 bead simi in Dublin reached up to 500,000 in Dublin during the crazy years. In reality this price SHOULD be about 155,000 Euro but the asking prices are STILL in excess of 300,000. So let’s not be foolish there is still a housing bubble, the fall MUST continue till a proper economic level is reached (see below). When the price right then people will move again. Price of a house in Ireland… Read more »
In the decade before the crash, the movement was away from expensive housing in Dublin (and eventually North Kildare, NE Wicklow, SE Meath). In the next decade, the movement will be influenced by the price of fuel. In other words it may well be in reverse. In comparison, there will be a movement back to areas where people are born, for reason of care of elderly relatives, and in some cases because some people actually saved in the boom, on the basis that they were always returning to nearer home when the opportunity arose. I have seen this with people… Read more »
That’s all very well what Puschkin says, ie It’d be nice if house prices followed the corresponding 7% yield (I think DavidMc referred to this in his last book), but in some areas of Dublin, house prices are not corresponding to this yield by a longshot, which is frustrating. As someone who is looking to buy, it’s also disconcerting dealing with agents who tell you, lo & behold, they’ve rcvd an offer on a house, 30 mins before you view it, and the same agent tells you the day after the viewing that the offer has increased by 10k, and… Read more »
Just following the UK experience in previous decades of 200,000 Brits leaving each yr and replaced with 300,000 foreigners will leave us with proprtionally the highest foreign born population on the planet in a decade.
Great stuff . So things are alive and well in suburbia. It brings back memories of listening to the Pet Shop Boys while being an illegal alien living in Orange County during the eighties recession. Sometimes I wonder why I ever returned to Ireland at all. The biggest pain in the arse is the lack of work in the country at the minute. There might be loads of time for football but there needs to be some movement on the jobs front. As far as I can see if you are not in the public sector or working for an… Read more »
Well Said , they’ll cut services , cut supports , charge their water and home tax , add on their USC charges , BUT NEVER CUT the cost of running a defunct civil service
Mobility of Labour Mobile Population , Itinerants , Thinkers , Shoe Makers , Handyman etc . In another time people that were then Norman / Old Irish found themselves displaced and landless and had no fix place of abode . They travelled the countryside in search of work and in that process their standard of education declined and lost their true identity . They became a mix match and their history was never written down .Many were sent away on prison ships . Today in a similar way it has begun again only this time there is education & technology… Read more »
Deco & The Muppets
I read that a new musical is being penned with all the characters of anglo ,bertie etc . When I read it I am almost sure it was Deco who inspired the nation to do this .
We need to get on the move alright. Get the feck outta this country before we’re completely broke and can’t afford to move.
David, when are you going to write an article about the Fiscal Kompact?
Check out this article:
http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/04/29/the-fiscal-compact-referendum-on-31st-may-2012-the-position-advocated-on-here/
Hi David I knew you’d be writing about schoolboy football and was expecting this. In our house it’s the local Celtic team, then Kenny Jackett’s lads and that shower over in Manchester. I’m sure those competitive schoolboy matches would be very entertaining to watch. Our lot got through to the semis of the U11s National Cup recently, came up to Dublin and got done by the Tangerine Nightmare (aka Kevin’s Boys). 3-0 down and shellshocked at half-time, outplayed in every dept especially tactics, a drubbing was on the cards but they are a second half side with great heart, turned… Read more »
I wonder… With all the negative equity – partcularly in the Buy to let business and the big move to rental, I wonder if there are businesses currently mopping up properties from distressed owners for 70-120K a pop. Are we going to see the rise of a new type of organised landlord business which might also 1) give the banks a means of ofloading assets for cash in a more sustainable way 2) allow people the freedom to rent anywhere in exchange for mortage servicing of existing house 3) reinforce the move to rental only for all 4) regularise the… Read more »
So called “White Flight” has been happenin for quite some time in urban Ireland.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight#Ireland
However, we as a nation can learn from those countries who have previously experienced what is a relatively new phenomenon for Ireland.
By not implimenting strategic social planning right now, we will, as David intimates, go down the road of the ghetto in our lifetime.
http://awakenlongford.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/311/
I’m having a little rant…….
Property Prices have over corrected ????
Does the Central Bank understand what Markets are ?
Are they again in a chorus of Denial ?
What Agenda are playing second fiddle to ?
Is it Banko & Fudge Show ?
Hurray! It’s soon to be the Boom Times again. First time buyers better get in quick because prices will soon be rising again and fast!
Sorry IT, Indo, Central Bank and all of the other champions of the property Boom, we don’t buy you b/s propaganda. We still are not at the bottom yet and as Deco says, were is the demand?
I hope it is not implied that “getting the economy moving” is “moving house-s”! I think the way to do this is not addressed at all in the blog, it is left to the shadows, a mystery. The Austrian School have a mystical belief that is “sound” money exists, the economy will spontaneously order itself in an unknowable way. Leaving the door open, as does this theme, seems to me to be an invitation to mysticism. So dismissing the imperious austerity diktats, and British monetarists “sound money” mesmerizing, means we have to, without flinching, have a mission oriented driven economy,… Read more »
On the frontline last night a trucker said
It’s the same circus with different clowns how through is that about this and the last government.
As DMcW does obliquely refer to growing population, it is urgent that readers confront the latest Club of Rome provocation, now blessed with Royal Society seals of approval.
Instead of economic growth this report shows the clear intention of the same circles. To appeal to these for “a chance of a future” is delusional.
http://laroucheirishbrigade.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/royal-society-promotes-british-monarchys-agenda-of-fascism-and-genocide/
http://awakenlongford.wordpress.com/2012/05/01/the-dukes-of-hazard/
This post way out of kilter with the mood of the article and the posts above. Everyone is trying to be friendly and have a bit of light hearted chat while looking at the country from a position of ‘high altitude’ as David often puts it. Sometimes we need to come up for air and loosen up pal We can leave the shouting and bawling for another time. Summer is coming. Lighten up and smell the roses and take in the sight of the Irish countryside coming into it’s own with the white hawthorn and golden gorse to compliment the… Read more »
Great writing. A human story always makes us feel human again.
David hate to be a technocrat but the offside rule does not apply until after 12. You need to have a word with the coach, maybe it’s causing your team some problems playing it when no one else is.
Does anybody know is there any body taking a challenge over the local needs policy ?
David debt forgiveness and job creation is a big ask…isn’t it?
Is this, what will happen?
http://www.youtube.com/watch
v=ZaLALmtfvpA&feature=relmfu
.
http://adask.wordpress.com/tag/warren-pollock/
This is the video from Warren Pollock didn’t come right before
http://www.youtube.com/watchv=ZaLALmtfvpA&feature=relmfu
Video by former KGB defector recorded in 1985
The 4 stages of subversion:
Demoralisation
Destabilisation
Crisis
Normalisation
All sounds familiar …
It seems we are all part of the type of experiments this guy describes. It’s as relevant today as it was then (more so, think 1984) and it should illuminate minds as to the awesome powers that control us all
KGB Agent Tells You What The Illusion Is !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMWVUoYNezU&feature=youtu.be
Hi, When I read this in the Sunday Business Post my first thought was what a rather banal article. However I was completely mistaken. It is very important that articles of this nature continue to get published because it puts a human face on the statistics being bandied about the place. When I watched Pat Rabbit on the TV the other night I just couldn’t believe how completely blind he is to the realities of the situation facing the country. Like all of the rest of them he just doesn’t get it. It really beggars belief. I am seriously considering… Read more »
David
Where have the suburbs been radicalized before? It’s one thing having criminal estates but what would a radicalized middle class estate look like?
The people most likely to go for ‘direct action’ are surely from the former? That might serve the interests of the latter but the longer it goes on the more inconvenient it would be. Perhaps like Germany in the years after 1933? The biggest issue at the moment is surely the household charge/ property tax, but the propertyless are hardly going to get worked up about that. Welfare cuts would be different.
The European outcome of the global financial and economic crisis was always going to be accelerated European integration. This was clear to me from the beginning. It was obvious the eurocrats would use the crisis to fast-track their goal of federalisation; and that the lead edge would be fiscal cohesion. It was equally obvious there could be serious problems with how the process unfolded. The main problem in my view is the democratic deficit which is deepening with every step we take. I am a Europhile. I believe a united Europe is good for Ireland; good for all European citizens;… Read more »
French Presidential ‘debate ‘ 8pm Tonight
Try to watch this at 8pm Irish Time tonight .It is too important to ignore.Choose some foreign channel available to you to view this
Reading the tweets about it. Sarko is definitely O-V-E-R!
@ cooldude It wasn’t politicians who debased the currency….remember, in our corporatised political system (especially in America) they are agents of private capital…you have admitted this yourself. The debasement and now the destruction of our monetary system has been wrought by private capitalists acting through their agents in government (to deregulate in their favour) and their financial and banking corporations (which include the Fed). I can understand the current obsession with gold as a store of personal wealth in times like these when private capital is waging financial war on the nation states of the world; and our monetary system… Read more »
Voices of reason, Constantin Gurdgiev and Morgan Kelly 2012 and 2007 respectively,
http://awakenlongford.wordpress.com/2012/05/03/323/
If it was raining soup, the man would be out with a fork,’ famously said a disgruntled Fine Gael backbencher many years ago, in reference to his party leader’s tendency to always choose the wrong policy option. This unfortunate tendency now characterises the Fine Gael/Labour Government in its response to the current economic crisis. The government has lashed itself more tightly than ever to the austerity wagon just as the wheels are wobbling and in imminent danger of falling off. The political crisis in the Netherlands is quite significant in this regard. Here is a country whose government was a… Read more »