The refugee crisis has shone a light on an issue that in Ireland is always simmering under the surface: housing. A lot of people have made the point that we have nowhere to put the refugees if they were to come here. This seems a natural thing to say when you think of the difficulties of finding accommodation, the upward movement in rents and the extreme version of this – real homelessness.
But is this actually the case? Do we have too few houses in Ireland?
In fact, we have too many.
The 2011 census revealed that there were 289,451 vacant properties (14.5pc of total stock). Of these 59,395 were classed as holiday homes. In any ordinary housing market, approximately 6pc of properties would be expected to be vacant (120,000 in the Irish case), meaning that oversupply is about 110,000.
These figure come from the very informative website irelandafternama.wordpress.com
Many of these houses are in ghost estates – a term coined in this column in 2006 following a shocking journey from Mayo to Dublin, when the ghoulish scaffolded skeletal structure of these estates seemed to be springing up on every bit of available land. Well, they haven’t gone away.
Could the refugees be housed in ghost estates? Of course they could.
My daughter suggested that maybe a good thing would be to give the Syrians the tools to complete these houses that were half-built. This doesn’t sound preposterous. After all, Japanese women rebuilt much of urban Japan with rudimentary tools after the Second World War.
Could the State provide the materials? Of course it could.
Such a development would be like a giant communitarian work programme, which would give the migrants a massive project and inject life into the estates.
This is what happened in Israel when over one million Russian refugees arrived into a population of four million in 1989-90. They built their own places to stay. It is what also happened in Germany in 1945 when 10 million displaced ethnic Germans from Eastern Europe arrived into West Germany with nowhere to sleep.
Some people may argue that no one wants to live in these estates.
Well, of course some people don’t, but lots would jump at the opportunity. If you are fleeing a country, you need safety and shelter and this is what these houses offer.
You would be amazed how quickly the fortunes of dereliction can be rectified by the presence of humans, by the enthusiasm for a new life and by the real human urge to get on with things.
We should regard the potential arrival of over 10,000 people as an opportunity. In addition, many of these estates are owned by Nama. It would be a blessing to the State to have regeneration. And given that so many are built in areas where the population is sparse, why not house these families in ghost estates?
If capacity is the problem, then there is no problem. We have lots of supply. The country is small and the people need somewhere to go.
If Germany can resettle 800,000 without excess housing, Ireland surely can house a few thousand families in houses that were actually built for Irish families. We have over 100,000 houses too many.
Let’s just briefly remind ourselves before we proceed why these estates exist.
They were built by speculators, financed by banks who thought they would sit on development land until the market began to rise, they would then finish building and ‘flip’ these houses onto the buyer, making a tidy profit in the process. This is worth remembering.
The plight of the refugees has drawn attention, once again, to the joke that is Irish housing policy. Not only do we have vacant and half-built housing in the countryside, we also have 8,000 vacant houses and 16,321 vacant apartments in Dublin where there is a housing shortage.
How can this be? Dublin is full of vacant sites that could be built on tomorrow. Dublin is full of land that is waiting to be developed and Dublin is full of people who want accommodation.
So what’s the problem?
The problem is that Nama is selling development land and huge numbers of apartments to speculators. These speculators are sitting on these assets, creating artificial bottlenecks in the market, pushing up the prices and waiting for the prices to go sufficiently high so that they can ‘flip’ on.
Does it sound familiar?
What is happening now in Dublin is precisely the same as what happened in the ghost estates, except for now the speculators are American funds that have deep pockets and are only in Ireland to ‘flip’ Irish assets back to Irish people at ridiculous prices. They will then move on to the next troubled country and maybe come back to play golf and high-five each other on the 18th hole over the amount of money they made here.
This get-rich-quick-scheme for foreign speculators is orchestrated by the Irish Government and this is mainly why we have a housing crisis in Dublin.
In fact, the State introduced a capital gains tax freeze for seven years in order to facilitate property buying.
So why would you not sell on things for seven years, take the rents (if it is a block of apartments) and then sell tax-free?
Rather than allow the speculators to sit on the land, why not change policy and tell buyers of land that they have to have a ‘use it or lose it’ clause, meaning planning needs to be sought and foundations built in, say, two years?
The refugee crisis has revealed again the dysfunctional nature of the Irish housing market and the ludicrous situation that in the least populated country in Western Europe you can have too many houses and too few houses at the same time.
ping
David,
Why can’t we provide houses for the existing Irish homless first?
If there are surplus houses after that then give them to the refugees.
Charity begins at home.
Much of the world’s attention has been focused on Europe and how it handles or mishandles the refugees. Many of the refugees, mostly Sunni, are from Syria. My question is this: why aren’t they going to the Islamic paradise practically next door – Saudi Arabia? After all, Saudi Arabia is the centre of the Islamic universe, a Sunni country, and of course filthy rich. Instead the Syrians would rather trek cross several countries, many of them unfriendly, endure humiliation, starvation, death and disease to get to a society and culture that will take them and take care of them. This… Read more »
I couldn’t agree more with the sentiments of your article David but a couple of points I feel need to be made here. At some stage, the very ghost estates you mention must have been envisaged as suitable for housing for Irish nationals. If this is the case, why wouldn’t a plan that you set out work for our own citizens. There are Irish citizens desperate enough to escape the hell of hotel and hostel living and move into somewhere they could call their own. If my information is correct, the majority of these displaced citizens have left their homes… Read more »
Hi, You must have been half asleep writing this article. The second half is grand. The first half is dreadful. So you really think we shoud house syrians in irish houses at the expense of the Irish taxpayer with record breaking irish emigration out of Ireland; http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2014/ The figure to April this year is around 80000. The world was shocked at the picture of the young fella face down in the surf recently when his boat sank. Here is a picture of several young fellas face down in the surf the difference being a few years in age, their Uniforms… Read more »
As David mentioned, there were 230,000 empty homes in the 2011 census. With best possible estimates, there are probably now roughly 150/160 k empty homes (give or take 15%) considering the housing market activity since 2011 (construction, new mortgages, cash buyers) and demographics (net emigration, deaths etc). However since it is over four years since the census, it becomes more of a guestimate, as unfortunately sellers of homes don’t fill out a form to tick a few boxes such as if it was empty in the 2011 census, floor area etc to make our property database more transparent. As I… Read more »
David I think you’re just playing devil’s advocate on this and exposing the farcical world we’re living in.Your last article highlighted the world of gaeltachtenomics where taxpayers are expected to pony up 1.3 million so a well heeled minority have taxpayer funded flights to their holiday homes in a Celtic disneyland.You even had what seemed to be a PR spokesperson trying to justify a job “creation” scheme for 11 people which would cost Irish taxpayers half a million euros per job. Do you really think 10,000 Syrians should be subjected to living in two mile borris or roscommon listening to… Read more »
[…] Let the homeless refugees breathe new life into our ghost estates (David McWilliams) […]
You may be surprised but till recently Ireland had a world renown refugee programme that many other countries copied. I worked the best past of the 90’s as an ESOL teacher for the (ARP) Adult Refugee Programme in Dublin and had since kept in touch with my former colleagues, I use the word ‘had’ because the government in the last decade has dismantled the support provisions for refugees. All the former structures throughout the country plus staff are no longer exist. So why did the government dismantle a world renown nationwide programme run on a shoestring budget? Because they conceded… Read more »
I cannot begin to imagine how these ‘refugees’ would be allowed to finish off the work on these houses, assuming they would want to. In one historic property I was involved with the guide staff were not allowed even to change a lightbulb but the OPW had to be called in to do it (calls would have to be made via the appropriate help desk and assigned a job number). I can’t remember now but this would probably have involved a contractor (who wouldn’t work for free) appointed by a competitive tender process advertized on etenders and possibly the European… Read more »
Ghost estates are not the answer. Do we really want to set up Syrian ghettos ? These people may not have the language, skills or qualifications necessary to immediately embed themselves in Irish culture. It will require massive resources from the state. My brother in law teaches in a primary school in Dublin where nine other first languages are spoken along with English. Will the state provide the resources necessary for the children of these refugees to assimilate into the Irish education system when the majority of our kids are still being taught in damp, rat infested , overcrowded prefabs?… Read more »
The documentary “Urbanized”(Gary Hustwit,2011) among several other issues regarding human conviviality in built environments, offers a few examples from around the world on how to tackle scarcity of housing and yes, one of them is to give people unfinished houses and the tools to complete them and so far has proven successful…
The government has announced “they’ll” be taking in 4000 refugees/economic migrants whatever you’re having yourself. That’s very decent of them and I’ll be sure to go down to visit them when the portacabins are built in the car park of Leinster House. Enda is cute enough to keep his gob shut and his picture away from this story with an election pending. I wonder how the conversation with Herr Merkel went on this issue. “Ve vant you to take 2000 Etna” “Begorrah and bejasus sure aren’t we great people altogether boss sure we’ll take 4000 and 16000 dependants on one… Read more »
Just a small wee question about all of this.
Will they like our climate enough to want to come and then having sampled it, will they want to stay.
Just wondering?
This seems to be a second part of a two part piece to promote the now politically correct view of the very real crisis in Syria. In the first part David tried to maintain that the Syrian conflict is simply a religious conflict between two forms of the Muslim tradition who simply dont like each other. Various contributions, including mine, showed fairly clearly that this so called civil war is really an attempt by the US/NATO/Israel forces, and their local allies of Egypt, Jordan and Turkey, trying to get rid of the Assad regime by whatever means possible. This attempt… Read more »
This seems misguided and not a ‘proportionate means to a legitimate aim’. Merkel has misjuged this, Europe needs to do what it can but its not these folk’s fault but it is their problem and like the Irish famine migrants they needed to take ‘responsibility’ and be responsible. To expect to ‘invade’ EU countries with such unmitigated sense of entitlement coming from another culture and religions seems strange.
Empathy is good (throw a lifebelt from the river bank), ‘let’s all go down together’ by overwhelming the West with passive ‘god’s will will provide; sympathy will be end in tears.
http://usawatchdog.com/retail-silver-market-has-seized-up-david-morgan/ Premiums for silver range from 13-35% over the alleged spot world price. This spot price is the phony manipulated price of the futures paper market. There is a major shortage of silver with delivery now 6-10 weeks or uncertain for bullion bars and coins. Why is the quoted price dropping although there is record demand. Central bank manipulation that is why. The same bankers as create the mayhem and subsequent refugee problems. People on the street are finding prices significantly higher. “The main problem America and the world has is what Morgan calls “the debt bomb.” He says the… Read more »
Because I know he is actually smart, I know this article is a wind up. If i didnt know the ability of the writer and was reading this as a first, I would say the guy is on drugs or an idiot or a lefty dogooder who hasnt a rashers about construction, the management or practicals of this insane idea. And even if, what about the “instant slums” element it would create. I say send these iphone toting, overweight, future rappers, so called refugees, thats a laugh, straight back to thosewho caused the problem in the first place. Fuck em,… Read more »
There seems to be a real king canute mentality to many of these posts. The Hungarian government might have secured a few votes with their razor wire fence and riot police but it took the syrians only a few minutes to figure out they could dig under the fence and march on to germany. Even if the hungarian troops fired into the crowds they will just find another route, it isn’t much of a disincentive after missile attacks, barrel bombs and the mediterranean sea anyway. As for the responsibilities of other countries that’s beyond our control. We have a choice… Read more »
heuston station, damn spellcheck
Many years ago, I was talking with a wise man from China.
He told me that there was no limit to the power of money to buy.
Now, I understand. A wise man.
With the amount of hatred , racism & vile comments I have heard over the last week..It will be a high security compound these people will have to live in.
You know who the most dangerous man in history is ???
No ?
It’s the white Man
Have a look over the last 500 hundred years at all the peoples we have butchered & enslaved.
White people scare me !
Before we panick more, we should wait and see if these people actually want to come toIreland.
DAVID
BEFORE IRELAND agrees TO HOUSE THE ENTIRE THIRD WORLD
-> IN LONGFORD
AND IN THE INTEREST OF FAIRNESS ->
WOULD IT BE BENEFICIAL ?
1. TO KNOW WHO IS FLEEING WAR
2. TO KNOW WHO IS JUST LOOKING FOR A JOB
IN SHOWING RESPECT SIGNED TREATIES
-> AND ENCOURAGING LAW ABIDANCE
1. WHAT IS THE FIRST VALID COUNTRY OF REFUGE?
2. WHY ARE THESE CLOSER COUNTRIES WITH SIMILAR CULTURES UNACCEPTABLE?
http://www.refworld.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/rwmain/opendocpdf.pdf?reldoc=y&docid=4bab55da2
P.s. WHEN IS GERMANY GOING TO ASK FOR PORTS AND AIRPORTS?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-07/france-prepares-bomb-syria-retaliation-refugee-crisis
We will stop the refugee problem. Bomb them some more!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-05/putin-confirms-scope-russian-military-role-syria Russia protecting its military base and oil supply routes adds to refugee problem in the West. ISIS is the pretend target for all this misery caused by the war on terrorists. Terrorists funded in the first place by US (read as us too) and NATO vested interests to attack and destroy Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya to name a few. All funded by Central bank fiat money charged at interest as a loan to every taxpayer in the Western hemisphere. Next time you pay taxes at the till think about what that money is spent on. It does not seem… Read more »
http://www.mercycorps.org/articles/turkey-iraq-jordan-lebanon-syria/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-syria-crisis
Most refugees are stuck in camps in poverty.
The ones making it to Europe are likely only those with the resources to pay for bus, boat and train transit once they walk far enough to find it. Maybe Eurpope is getting just the fringe, the cream of the crop, while the real problems are in the countries neighbouring Syria. They are overwhelmed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War Partial suspension of the Dublin Regulation[edit] Main article: European migrant crisis Under the Dublin Regulation, if a person that had filed for asylum in one EU country illegally crosses borders to another country, they shall be returned to the former. During the 2015 European migrant crisis, Hungary became overburdened by asylum applications to the point that it stopped on 23 June 2015 receiving back its applicants who later crossed the borders to other EU countries and were detained there.[133] On 24 August 2015, Germany decided to suspend the Dublin Regulation as regards Syrian refugees and to process their asylum… Read more »
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-08/war-drums-beating-bulgaria-blocks-russian-access-its-airspace-syria-flights
Is it all about natural gas pipelines. somehow I doubt it.
Apologies, this one goes on and on. I was tapping away at it at odd moments throughout the day and I haven’t got time to do any editing. David has always been straight about his views and I am grateful that he welcomes open debate here. I want to move at a slight tangent from the article to the main issue and explain why his view, which is shared by the great majority of our politicians and media, but certainly not by a large part of the people, is wrong. I simply dismiss most media commentators on this because they… Read more »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCOLcMqdpls
Stefan Molyneux: “What Pisses Me Off About The European Migrant Crisis”
(30 min talk)
Amen, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQzwSs3Ec6Q
Well , all the above articles & comments after mine are wonderful & intelligent and very lofty for after dinner discussions ( suppose that would be a “cook out” to you Smokey ? ) But the bottom line is that the west has been fuckin over the east for years..& Africa and anywhere were else we explored or conquered. Maybe the reason the West is so attractive to refugees or asylum seekers or whatever you want to call them is because “we” had the industrial revolution whilst their Countries were stuck in feudalism or family hireacies for hundreds of years..?… Read more »
This again demonstrates the need for local democracy in this Country. If David wants to allocate resources for housing in his local area using his tax resources and those of his neighbours he’s welcome to do so providing he has their consent. If the good people of Dalkey want to spent their resources to provide for the needs of 4000 or 20000 new residents that’s their choice. I suspect that if David put that proposal to his neighbours by way of a popular vote he might run into some difficulty. So why does he think he has the right or… Read more »
What , pray tell ..has Switzerland got to do with it.? They invented the only chocolate in the world , if not eating correctly , can cause Brain damage..flooding the world with Toblerone. Sneaky chocolate of mass destruction…or C.M.D as the C.I.A call it. The future is a melting pot of different cultures , religions , faiths & different colours….Most of them from the middle east…who will flood Europe & a small percentage will have a chip on their shoulder and will be involved in attacks on the west…. It is going to be almost impossible to prevent this… Happened… Read more »
Seems to be a lot of them ‘here’ already.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11858952/BIS-fears-emerging-market-maelstrom-as-Fed-tightens.html
Meanwhile, back at the debt ranch all is well as long as interest rates stay at or below zero.
The pace of change is accelerating.
http://www.independent.ie/entertainment/radio/rt-news-reporter-jonathan-clynch-identifiesas-gender-fluid-31521817.html
I honestly can’t keep up.
coldblow Well I suppose the good news in all of this is that at least Jeremy Corbyn isn’t prime minister and neither Donald Trump or Hilary Clinton is President yet. The way the world is going anything is f**king possible. I wonder what happened to Enda I remember he was elected a few years ago but he seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth? Maybe someone should give him a call to see if he’s ok and bring him up to speed? My fear is that I know (despite his attempts at gravitas) if Enda was sent… Read more »
Morning DB…
Ireland still has a guilt complex & a inferioty complex…still looking for anyone to say how great we are..
I like the butcher an analogy , creepy..but I like it.
While we’re being fed..We will be a member of NATO within 5 years.U.S Bases will be here within 10..
It’s 6.10 a.m here in Germany..another motorway truck stop…heading for Volkswagen in Wolfsburg. .vast amounts of commercial traffic here….
Spain & Portugal ? Once you go outside the major cities… no commercial traffic…See a Truck ? Better get your camera out & note the species. .
Morning
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/think-germans-arent-fed-their-media-and-us-listen-man-video/ri9693
Makes me laugh people trying to preserve Irish ‘culture’ from all the waves of immigrants that are going to eat our children. What culture exactly? Cowardice, corruption, snobbery, hypocrisy, nepotism and a healthy does of ‘can’t be arsed-ness (laziness). Then throw in a half-dead useless language (not my language), rampant alcoholism, diddly-diddly music, bleedin’ Riverdance, pontificating plonkers like Bono and Geldof, GAA jersey heads and rugger bugger bores – as far as I’m concerned you can throw the lot of it off the western seaboard and start again – there’s nothing I would miss from it – #paddywhackery Ok there’s… Read more »
Adam Thanks for the reply and I will respond here for reasons of space. When it gets heated it can get interesting, certainly more interesting than exchanging compliments. I agree that a lot of our culture is very bad but not all. If you take the Late Late as exhibit A, then as my son should know well by now there are four reasons for its utter uselessness, in no particular order: the host, the guests, the music and the audience. I was taking your point too widely at first, ie as one of identity as identity is of course… Read more »
Adam, a long one for you. ‘In my opinion and experience it is far too simplistic to separate humanity into just two groups.’ In my own opinion and experience this is the most common objection made by extraverts, and almost as amusing as their furious ‘You can’t generalize!’ (as in, ‘You are not *allowed* to generalize!) There seem to be some kinds of thought that they find impossible to grasp, unless first shared by everyone else, or at least I used to think that until I came across a number of prominent extraverts who appear to have proved that wrong.… Read more »
[…] come back to haunt us”. The homeless and those paying exorbitant rents might wonder why there are still 8,000 vacant houses and 16,321 vacant apartments in Dublin alone – five years after Fianna Fail […]