Earlier this year I was working in Australia and spent some time at the famous Bondi Beach where it became obvious to me that there were two types of people there.
The first species is the sculpted Aussie surfers. All sun-bleached hair, bright white teeth and toned limbs. Just the right proportions, strong features, physical perfection . . . and that’s just the straight blokes!
Gay men built like Bette Midler’s backing dancers in outrageously skimpy budgie smugglers ignore the Elle MacPherson clones doing early morning tai chi as they wait patiently for the right waves.
The second species is us, the Irish, in our GAA jerseys, huddled together so as not to frighten the natives at the far side of Bondi, not knowing how to surf, swim or strut: the O’Neill’s football, step one haircut and socks give it away. The faded teenage tattoos on freckly backs are another tell-tale sign, particularly as what was once a shark just above the shoulder-blade now resembles a beached whale, deformed on skin stretched by too many Hula Hoops, pints and Pot Noodles.
Two separate sets of figures just published — the first by the Australian Embassy and the second by our CSO — indicate that there will be plenty more of the second species on Bondi in the years ahead.
The Australian Embassy revealed that there has been a 25pc increase in Irish people looking to emigrate permanently to Australia. Quite apart from those who have decided to leave for good, other young Irish people are on the move to the ‘lucky country’ as never before. The number of 12-month working holiday visas for Australia issued to people under 30 has surged by 33pc to 22,786 in the year to the end of June. This figure is likely to have risen since then as recent graduates realise there are no jobs for them here.
This is the new Irish experience. In my book ‘Follow the Money’, I refer to the people I saw on Bondi Beach, working in cafes on the promenade or in the Irish bars in Bondi Junction, as ‘Generation Exodus’. Generation Exodus is the end result of the pathetic governance of Ireland over the past 10 years.
When the ‘insiders’ in Ireland waltz us up an economic cul de sac — as they did in the 1950s and the 1980s — society splits into ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’. The insiders — those with a stake in the society, those with the contacts and the networks to muddle through — get stronger. In contrast, the ‘outsiders’ get out. It happened in the 1950s and again in the 1980s and now it is happening again.
Generation Exodus should have inherited the fruits of 10 years of growth. Instead they are given the door. Meanwhile, the people who caused the crisis and dismissed persistent economic warnings as “doom mongering” are still in power.
For those who remember the 1980s, or even the 1950s, there is a perfect symmetry in all this. Today’s Generation Exodus is the ‘Ryanair Generation’ of the 1980s or the ‘Mail Boat Generation’ of the 1950s. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, thousands of young Irish people — myself included — headed on Ryanair flights to London. In the 1950s, 500,000 of our parents’ generation emigrated to the UK. Today, the opportunities are no longer in Britain, so Ireland’s latest exiles, Generation Exodus, must go further afield.
But the pattern is exactly the same. Today’s insiders, as in previous decades, couldn’t care less. One prominent politician, a consummate insider, summed up the establishment’s attitude to 1980s emigration with: “Sure how can we all expect to live on this little island?”
The same smug nonchalance is on display now. And worse, the full extent of the property madness of the past 10 years was confirmed by the figures published earlier this week by the CSO. The CSO data confirms that Generation Exodus will get bigger and bigger over the coming years.
For those of us with the economics weakness, dry numbers published by statisticians can paint vivid pictures about how our society works and if you join the dots you can see the big picture which links the numbers to the experience of Irish migrants in Bondi.
The CSO has published data on Ireland’s “capital stock”. The capital stock is the engine of the economy. The more capital of the ‘right’ sort that has been accumulated in a boom the better prepared the economy is to ride out the recession. The ‘right’ capital makes an economy productive. With the right capital we can get more people working, producing more and therefore getting paid more, which allows us to buy stuff without getting into debt. By raising the productiveness of everyone, investment in the right capital benefits all.
Unfortunately, there is also the ‘wrong’ capital. This is investment in stuff that produces nothing, that creates no jobs or opportunities and that demands no new skills to be used because it is the capital that, far from producing wages, is actually a cost that needs to be constantly maintained.
Too many houses are one such ‘bad’ investment. And in the boom we invested enormously in the ‘wrong’ sort of capital which will not contribute one job to Generation Exodus.
Looking at the CSO figures, we see that Ireland’s capital stock in 1999 was €189bn, of which €100bn was houses and other property. In 2009 Ireland’s capital stock is €476bn, of which €302bn is dwellings. So, discounting housing, Ireland’s capital stock has risen from €89bn to €174bn over 10 years. That’s a rise of 95pc in 10 years, which isn’t bad, but it’s not quite the huge rise of 150pc when you include housing. But the problem is that all this investment in housing is useless and has to be paid off.
To put things another way, in 1999, housing accounted for 53pc of Ireland’s capital stock. But in 2009, housing accounted for 64pc of Ireland’s capital stock. So while Ireland’s net capital stock is €476bn, if we leave out both dwellings and other buildings but include roads, machinery and transport equipment (ie the ‘right’ capital) our figure falls to a surprisingly low €80bn. This means that only 17pc of our capital stock is not a building of some sort.
Now contrast this with an economy like Switzerland. The total amount of their capital stock made up of buildings of some sort is 56pc, but the other 44pc is civil infrastructure, machines, transport and equipment. This is why Switzerland can be both expensive and productive: it has the ‘right’ capital.
Ireland in contrast, after 10 years of a boom, has the ‘wrong’ capital, which means we have the worst combination possible: we are expensive and unproductive. The high costs make us weak because they don’t reflect high productivity. So we have the brains of Generation Exodus, but not enough machinery to let these brains work to their potential. So we educate them to emigrate as we have done for generations and yet again some other country benefits.
And all the while, the ‘insiders’ knuckle down for the battle of survival in a shrinking Ireland and the ‘outsiders’ are told where to go.
David,
“Sure how can we all expect to live on this little island?”
The “insider” prominent politician who made this crazy above statement was Brian Lenihan Senior – So not only do ther insiders stay in power but their jobs are handed down to their sons and daughters.
Another well written article which sums up this failed state.
Happy new year – but remember we’ve “turned the corner” (Yeah . . Right)
60 MILLION PEOPLE LIVE IN BRITAIN WHICH HAS AN AREA 3 TIMES THE SIZE OF THE 26 COUNTIES!.WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO INDIGENIOUS MANUFACTURING IF STERLING WEAKENS ON THE BACK OF A HUNG PARLIAMENT IN THE UK?.THE LENIHAN FAMILY HAVE PLAYED THEIR PART IN SCREWING THIS COUNTRY, YET ARE TREATED WITH AN ARISTOCRATIC REVERENCE.WHY HAS NOBODY IN THE UPPER ECHELONS OF THE CIVIL SERVICE BEEN FIRED FOR INCOMPETENCE, THEY WERE AMONG THE MOST ENTHUSIASTIC SUPPORTERS OF THE CANCEROUS EURO?.ASDA IN ENNISKILLEN GETS BIGGER AND BETTER BY THE WEEK!.WHAT ODDS ANOTHER LENIHAN AS MINISTER IN 2024?.
We need to ask ourselves why we as a people we allowed all this to happen and allow the insiders have their way .I believe that we as a nation are still recovering from the mindset of the Great Famine. Houses were a luxery and the security it brought was a high premium of feeling of personal achievement .It was ‘a mammies factor’ and everyone realised houses came first and last.The old established families did not hold the same ‘needed values’ and theirs were more enterprising as in production and the professions. Unfortunately the FF Politicians took advantage of this… Read more »
I am a former lifeguard and with many lives saved to my credit including 9 gardai .I could see myself on Bondi Beach ( if I were young again ) with my Tim Tams and the challenge it brings .Oh bring back those days ( roll it again collette ) .
There’s 40 young people from a total population of about 500 gone from our area and all are meeting up for NYE on some beach or other in Oz. They were the brightest and best workers. Numpties, old people, the privileged and grumpy feckers like me remain. No new blood and no new ideas. None of this Dhiaspora Nua give a monkeys about the auld sod nor it’s troubles. They know there’s no future without ‘The Pull’ so they’ve left to find a level playing field. Ireland seems to have developed its own version of cyclical economics. If it’s problematical,… Read more »
The phrase “Generation Exodus” is in itself chilling. For the insider capitalist the enemy is not socialism, but competition from other capitalists. In fact socialism is a boon to the capitalist insider because it centralizes control, so that the insiders can nest themselves closer to the wealth. This is shown in it’s most obvious form in the current socialism for bankers initiative – no banker left behind. No Irish banker will be left out in the cold, no matter how recklessly they have been behaving. We cannot operate capitalism properly in Ireland. [ And we have made a dogs dinner… Read more »
Great article David. I agree 100% with the 5 earlier comments above. I will soon be forced to go further afield to find work, so I know how it feels to be the ultimate outsider. This country is run for the benefit of the middle aged middle classes. For some reason, many Irish people outside this socio-economic class like to be treated like shit. Also, I was briefly listening to RTE Radio 1 with Joe Duffy interviewing a few people earlier on. One woman was talking about living abroad and then returning home. Then she lets out the greatest fallacy… Read more »
Just a couple of additional points with regards to spurious numbers. We seem to have forgotten that “transition year” was introduced in our schools in the last recession to impove the numbers on the live register. In one move it eliminated a generation from signing on under the guise of the PESP 1994. Our live register is the most farsical statistic gathering source of the system. It is utterly ficticious not accounting for thousands who were once self employed or company directors and who have now become unemployed. It does not account for all those who have returned to their… Read more »
David, you’re a bit harsh on the Irish ‘fugees. Hula Hoops make a crunchy alternative ‘prawn cracker’ topping to Pot Noodles cooked in a Guiness broth. There’s a Lonely Planet gap-year cookbook recipe for free! You mention Bondi but forgot the Bogans / Westies….perhaps there was a Chinese tourist delegation that day and they kept them all corralled in the outer ‘burbs with free beer and barbies to pacify them. http://uncyclopedia.wikia.com/wiki/Bogan#The_Australian_Football_Bogans I hope all who have sought good fortune ‘down under’ find it, even if New Year Eve on Bondi is likely to be a ‘challenging’ experience according to the… Read more »
David, “Generation Exodus” it’s a recession not a Holocaust. Sure I know plenty of people heading over to Australia on their 12 month visa most are upper-middle class kids in their mid-20’s who have just finished their marketing degree in Daddies Business School or their mechanical engineering in Trinners and ‘loike totally cant believe they are not getting 45K their first year of graduation’. If you want to work in a bar on Bondi beach and party it up for a year or two in OZ then that’s great, hey if you want to dance a year away at some… Read more »
Atlantic Nation – we are a nation in the Ocean and not adjoining the continent as we like to assume .We need to think empiricle and from above to move forward .I suggest we annex our state with Iceland learn from each other .Our future wealth is in the oceans and it makes a lot of sense .Iceland has moved on from where we are now hundreds of years ago so they can teach us something.We are related and they are not a threat to our sovereignty.So why not !
Colin – few people left those countries because their Climate is a warm one.
Colin – you will be waiting a long time .By the way there is plenty of work to be done in the country have you thought of that ? It must be worth something.
Colin – if you dont find it someone else will maybe a chinese or someone from eastern europe ! Take it or leave it.
David is wrong to assume that this is a generation exodus in the sense that population is emigrating .He should mean Displacing .The 50’s , 80’s and before that the famine were all different .This time people are Displacing because those that leave and usually native find that a foreigner has taken a job somewhere instead.The sad thing is that the natives are educated unlike before .Before natives would take any job available because they wanted any kind of work.Today natives are more choosy.
Recalibrate – natives need to recalibrate the country’s needs with what they can offer . Ask not what the country can do for you but what you can do for your country .
We need to militarise our minds into strategic movements that we always win.
David – I reckon young people emigrating to day is no comparison too emigration in the past, thanks to cheap travel, tech gadgetry and a the back pack culture. So, i reckon the capital stock is your main point in relation too the insider / outsider paradigm. So, based on the stats it seems to be the case the insiders who are in the minority took for themselves a disproportionate unjust % on the wealth produced in the last 10 years. So, this means the insiders have increased their wealth power massively over the last 10 years. So, what does… Read more »
As I probably won’t be reading this blog from tomorrow afternoon until after New Year’s Day, and as this is your parting shot at the state of the nation 2009 David, I’d like to wish you a very happy and prosperous New Year and hope all of your followers think for themselves and look out for themselves and their families. Likewise the government lackies who no doubt peruse this website, like guilt-ridden furtive priests who ‘find themselves’ on skin street in the red Light district. A salute to David McWilliams and hopefully to the new governor of the central Bank,… Read more »
colin – more foreigners are displacing natives in business daily I can show you a street in Limerick when less than 5 years ago traders were 100% native now it is less than 30% native .And the foreign businesses seem to be very busy too.So there is a choice and if they know better the natives are displaced .Maybe our senses are weak because we are Too Fat
@ David McWilliams “To put things another way, in 1999, housing accounted for 53pc of Ireland’s capital stock. But in 2009, housing accounted for 64pc of Ireland’s capital stock. So while Ireland’s net capital stock is €476bn, if we leave out both dwellings and other buildings but include roads, machinery and transport equipment (ie the ‘right’ capital) our figure falls to a surprisingly low €80bn. This means that only 17pc of our capital stock is not a building of some sort.” Yes, you so clearly pointed out this rotten endpoint in 2005-2007 period in many articles. So, accepting that we… Read more »
I think you have to seperate between the twenty somethings who are travelling around for a year having a laugh and those who are leaving on a longer term basis.
The biggest difference between the previous generations and this one is that this one is only a few clicks from seeing what’s happening at home. If Ireland were to begin to change, I am sure a lot of it’s exiles would be happy to become more engaged in that process. But as it is now, they are reading stories on a daily basis that remind them of why they left.
Where are the lone parents going to go? Did anyone hear Minister Hanafin today saying that she is thinking about removing the loan parent allowance Quote: “Continuing to pay somebody until their child is 22 mitigates against a lone parent having a stable relationship, marrying or finding a full-time job.” I believe she is planning on removing the allowance when the children reach age of 13 Talk about attacking the vulnerable in society, what chance have these families of social mobility? None under Fianna Fail! I get more angry by the minute The government have no problem bailing out the… Read more »
furrylugs : I want to make a million in 2010 too many people will only complicate it.
[…] Link David cWilliams – Life’s a beach for Ireland’s latest ‘Generation Exodus’ […]
Hey! We’ll take as many of you as put up their hands, David! You’re lot are very good value! But anyone who emigrates should be aware that Australia more than matched your real estate bubble. [Websearch my “Unlocking the Riches of Oz”.] $672 billion of the $2.4 trillion we pumped into bank-inspired real estate purchases was in bubble territory and will have to be written off. Australians remain in blissful ignorance of this fact. We think we’ve avoided the GFC when, in fact, we actually built the world’s greatest real estate fantasyland. So, while we’d like to see more of… Read more »
Yeah, and I was in blissful ignorance that phrase should be ‘your lot’, NOT ‘you’re lot’. :(
Folks, some economists seem to agree with what I said about the senior civil servants getting a break causing some trouble in January; this, from Stephen Kinsella:
http://www.stephenkinsella.net/2009/12/30/when-the-centre-cannot-hold/
Folks, look at Iceland’s new government’s decision; Does “political change” exist? (I don’t think so.):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8435662.stm
See, now? The French, they don’t take no sh1t from nobody! :
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2009/1231/1224261476729.html
(Thanks, Liam).
This cyclical downturn / emigration / angst embodiment of being Irish begs the question “Why?”. Why can’t we stand up as a Nation, elect responsible leaders? Why are we such mugs? Why do we roll over and take it. Why do we fly and not fight? To break any negative cycle, one has to identiy the root cause. I’m convinced the essence of our subliminal serfdom lies way back beyond even the 50’s. Back beyond even 1916. In 1916, intellectuals such as Pearse took a stand, were executed and sub standard entities opportunistically filled the resultant void. Any remaining Statespeople… Read more »
And here’s a sobering article for anyone considering where we might be headed…….
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/look-on-bright-side-for-a-more-civilised-century/story-e6frg6zo-1225814832678
Just wanted to wish David & all the other bloggers Happy New Year from New Zealand. A comment on this article. It appears that Ireland’s Gombeen politicians have really messed up this time. I went to the U.S. in the early 90’s & was back a few times during the Celtic Tiger era. I couldn’t believe how the government was allowing the economy to overheat. I know that being locked in to Euro Interest rates didn’t help but there were other ways that discipline could have been imposed. Bertie prayed for a baby boom & showered money on his mates… Read more »
Slave Trading Gangstabankstas – their troubled minds are hurting and no beard or scout leaders goatee can hide their deep ridden guilt .Gone is their charisma and self styled deception of their national claim to be among us as Irish.Their passports are now plastic and scredding fast as we begin to see the evil virus that they really were .The moon pull is lifting the truth and burdening their mortality and soon the moon wobble will in early january strike a fatal chord that will numb them forever. No tree or flower will salute them again and no music will… Read more »
I am making a comment because I have just realised that “Fingers” has made a comment concerning a TD in the Dail calling him a gangster. Of course without Dail privelege, the said TD would be open to a threat of being sued.
But suppose using the technology of the internet – let’s say 100000 people called somebody something disreputable. How would suing 100000 people work ?
Interestingly enough Fingers never made any commentary concerning the contents of The Bankers by Shane Ross. Hilarious comments in there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EWsHD-ZuJ8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLGygoQQnzs
Does anyone know where Fingers lives? I’ll stand outside his house with a loudspeaker telling him that he is a gangster, and that the law is corrupt, and that he could do us all a favour by going off and committing suicide.
Also, Hanafin, listen up, you do not speak for me. The whole country is not supportive of Lenny and his family. Why are we being conditioned to treat political dynasties as 18th century aristocrats? What happens to people on the dole who suffer from ill health? Does the whole country support them? Do they fcuk!
Well I Hope Next Year , We see our Political families been hit by more than Health worries. Let’s hound them , march on the Dail, march to their Houses. Stop paying our TV license Withdraw our money from The Crooks in AIB and BOI . Stand outside local council building s when meetings are held. Stop Drinking in bars, Email TD’s every day , email Every Radio station . Protest outside The Banks and support those they threaten to evict. Grow our own food , support our Own trades people, get good honest prices from them too. We have… Read more »
Furrylugs, I agree with you at 13 above. We can all shoulder the wheel. I’m not so sure about my handling of the Herrenvolk, but I will surely try to help.
Colin_in_Exile, I read a couple of weeks ago that you are no longer in exile.
I am sure that everyone here will use their own networks to suggest openings for use of your skills, if you inform us what they are.
I will certainly be happy to try and find work for you.
We are ranked as being at “Medium risk” for social unrest in 2010, by “The Ecomomist”:
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15098974
Posters –
Very little emigration going on here. 90,000 young women claiming disability allowance, so they are supposedly not even looking for employment.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/offers-of-jobs-and-training-for-people-on-disability-1994743.html
Change comes from within, up to the Irish people to grasp the nettle, if they so chose, the kind of change required will not come from the Dail nor will it come from re-establishing the IFSC. I like the co-operative idea as posted previously, a fairer, more just and sustainable Ireland is possible – I just hope none of the main political parties just that as theor electioneering slogan. 2010 is going to a very big year in this young country’s history, make or break. The known knowns, the known unkowns and the unknown unkowns :-) – I await more… Read more »
Posters –
Check out newstalk lunchtime pod cast for playback on a frank fahey / eamonn dunphy discourse on NAMA and its chicanery.
Fahey is telling lies on air straight too eamonn keane and called out on it. The full interview is something else going into the NAMA nuts and bolts.
THe NAMA delusion fully on view exemplified through fahey.
The podcast is wed lunchtime show this week.
http://www.newstalk.ie/#
Astral Diagnosis of David ( subjective view only):
1 Philosopher
2 Rover
3Sun Sign – Fire Element
Moon Sign – water element
4 Romantic Irishman
5 Economist
Its impossible to guess because I read too much what he writes but I wanted to try anyway.
Happy New Year to You and all your family ….and everyone on the site .
Hallo Folks! Ire_in_Exile here, I had made a few angry, infuriated and exasperated contributions to this site over a period of about 6 months last year, some of you may remember, but as I could not come up with anything positive to say about the situation in Ireland from my objective opinion elsewhere I decided best to simply shut up. However, the only common sense I have found coming out of the country seemed to emanate from this website. So I am very glad to recognise so many posters here still, and thought to stop by to wish you all… Read more »
Happy New Year Everyone.
I was listening to The Right Hook show earlier on, some guy called Ger stepping in for George reviewing the year the gubberment had. Ger thought it was the case that the gubberment did well to get through the year intact, and was suggesting to Vincent Browne and Sam Smith and A.N. Other that it was the opposition’s fault that the gubberment was still in power. Thankfully, a more intelligent being texted in to say that turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. Where do Newstalk find these egiots to present radio shows?
So….. Cardinal Cahal Daly RIP
http://bit.ly/7VGpjn
(Via Mark Little)
I’m afraid I will only mourn the fact that he was not prosecuted. I want “prosecution, not resignation” (or death) for Bishops who covered-up and facilitated child abuse. “Accessories-after-the-fact”.
Posters –
Good link here on what it means in actuality for an economy if printing money is used for as a fixer.
This obviously does apply to us if we are as fahey said in interview linked above by will,
” benefiting from the ECB printing euros of the presses it will not cost the taxpayer anything cos the ECB is printing it all out for us”
This blind assertion into a radio mic across all of Ireland really sums up the last 18 months.
We are in la la land not ire land.
Happy New Year to all here. It is up to us to “Make it so”.
Let’s keep at it.
Tim, (in my New Yearzie Resulitionisitis) in the last Article you compiled the list of ideas proffered by people. Just wondering how we should give imput so we can prioritise. Also, while we have loads of great ideas – I’d prefer to see them as our options. So, my next question might be what are the criteria for selecting the options/ ideas. Criteria might include… Cost, Skillsets available Political bias Social Blocking Etc. I suppose all I am looking for is the thin edge of the wedge. Have a happy new year and decade all!! On a parting comment…everyone should… Read more »