Young men from GAA clubs all around the country are moving to clubs in London and New York.
One of the most fascinating barometers of the Irish economy is published not by the ESRI, the Central Bank or any of the many stockbrokers paid to monitor the state of things. If you want to understand what is happening on the ground, go to www.gaa.ie.
As well as fixtures, news, updates and analysis, the GAA’s website is a mine of sociological information. One monthly little gem tells us who is transferring from which club and where they are going.
For the last few years the club transfer list was pretty standard, reflecting young players moving around the country to where they are working or studying.
So lads would transfer from clubs in Dublin to Cork or Waterford, depending on jobs. Obviously, much of the movement was to Dublin clubs as the capital sucked in resources to fuel the boom.
This month’s figures, however, reveal something startling. We are seeing a huge increase in young men moving from Irish clubs all around the country to clubs in London and New York.
This barometer — let’s call it the GAA Club Transfer Index or GCTI for short — doesn’t lie. More significantly, the huge surge in emigration it reflects will not be picked up by official statistics for months, if not years.
According to the GCTI, emigration is on the increase from all over Ireland and it is recurring in precisely the age group that we need most — our young, fit people. What makes the change in the index all the more startling, is the dramatic turnaround in fortunes between the beginning of the year and now. In January, not one club player transferred to a club outside Ireland. This month, over one third of all transfers involved lads leaving the country and signing up for clubs in New York and London.
So Paddy is moving again. Historically, it has always been so. When things are going well here, we come home and when things turn down, we go. Such migration patterns are not normal.
For example, in the 1980s Ireland and Spain suffered from the same levels of unemployment — 19pc in both countries. This lack of opportunity prompted 400,000 young Irish people to leave the country. By contrast, the Spaniards hardly budged. The GCTI is telling us that this is happening again.
Over the years, the GAA has been a brilliant indicator of economic and demographic trends. For example, in the 1980s, emigration in rural Ireland was so severe that many villages couldn’t find 15 young men to field a team on a regular basis.
Equally, the boom years were a bonanza for the GAA. New clubs opened to cater for the huge outward move to the new suburbs of Meath, Kildare and the peripheries of all our main towns.
Wherever a series of new estates were built, GAA clubs followed. GAA clubs, outside decking, Woodies DIY and Dominos Pizza went together. Much to the chagrin of many commentators, these new suburbs in “Deckland” thrived. Communities formed quickly and, at the centre of these new neighbourhoods, was the ever present GAA club.
In older suburbs where the GAA had not been traditionally strong, the boom led to a rekindling of interest in Gaelic Games. It also spawned a new subspecies — the GAA Mum. The GAA Mum emerged ferrying children around like a demented taxi-driver every Saturday morning. My own neck of the woods, Dun Laoghaire (never a GAA stronghold), has become flooded with these new hyper-educated, assertive, clever, ambitious and aspirational “GAA mums”. Interestingly, the GAA won the battle for the hearts and minds of the new middle class in suburban Ireland.
Mothers who never had any dealings with the GAA, either as children or young women, are signing up their kids and getting involved in the GAA over and above other sports. Today’s GAA mums are a very different breed to those who made the sandwiches years ago.
They are part of the resurgence in a well-managed, well-marketed sporting institution which runs itself professionally and towers over other sporting organisations. Because it is ubiquitous, across all classes and regions, the GAA is a fantastic leading indicator of social change.
Unfortunately, the social change it is capturing now is emigration. The return of emigration has profound ramifications for all of us. If Irish young men are going now, when both the US and the UK are close to recession, they must feel that their chances there are better than they are here. This is damning.
The implications for tax revenue, the budget deficit and house prices are straightforward. The less young people you have, the less tax revenue you have and the more expensive public projects become. As for house prices, if the GCTI is accurate, the implication for house prices is simple — they will fall further. This is bad news for not only the housing market but for the banking sector too because without a vibrant, young population, much of the dynamic of an expanding economy disappears.
In addition, most studies reveal that the most able people emigrate while the not so talented or ambitious might be more likely to stay at home and be on the dole. Emigration is self-selecting and it reinforces a downturn, not just in terms of the quantity of people in the country, but the quality too.
The political implications of a return of Irish emigration, coupled with net immigration into the country are again straightforward. People will get angry if “our own” are forced to live in Queens or Camden while the country plays host to all sorts of foreigners. This is not a racist comment; it’s a political reality.
The GAA Club Transfer Index is pointing to massive social change and a return of emigration but don’t expect to hear about this from our authorities. If you want to see why there will be tearful reunions at Dublin airport for the first time in decades this Christmas, don’t wait till the experts report back; head down to your local GAA club and see what’s happening to the teamsheets.
Interesting article David, but what do you make of the following indicator of demographics which appeared in the press yesterday: Our leading representatives in the Olympics – the only ones who might bring home the medals – are working class young men involved in beating up other young men (within the rules of boxing of course), while the so called cream of our well educated youth, our rich south county Dublin representatives, go on an orgy of drink and violence (against the rules) in Crete.
Hi David. After reading your article i checked out the numbers myself. And the difference between Jan and summer is not unusual. If you look back over the past few years. Janurary always has less going abroad then the summer months. And compared to the summer months of 2007 and 2004 (random years I picked) 2008 summer is not statistically different. (Janurary 2004 was by far the biggest janurary and that was in the middle of the boom) This probably has more to do with students going abroad after college is finished then anything else for a year out. I… Read more »
The talented and ambitious will have to find someone to rent that over-priced house before they can move anywhere. I live in kildare, and it is the less talented that are free to move, because they could not afford to get onto the property ladder, they may not make much money, but they did not get ripped off, they are not stressed, although they do not particularly want to leave, they are prepared to do so, and are very thankful that they did not buy property now.
The GAA gang are leaving too due to their fields been flooded and unplayable with the slapped up houses these same boys put up on the flood planes next door to them , but none of those G A A sports men cared to question the sense of this when they were driving home with their few grand in the back pockets each week for erecting timber framed houses , which will rot in this ‘new climate’ , but that’s Ireland for ya ! This new game has been slowly coming for the last few years and yet apart from… Read more »
Paul, did you ever think that some of the most talented might have copped on to the housing bubble and thus didn’t buy into it?
The notion that all the smart ones bought property is more than a little naive! Some of us are under the impression that you’d have to have been not so bright to have bought in the last few years…
Does it really matter that we have mass outflows. After all, the traffic congestion is still up, Health Service is over burdened as are the schools etc. If we cannot build the infrastructure, we need to reduce the load on it. Free it up! That’ll be good for logistics as well. Reduced population means more empty houses and fewer to build and that means less lurries and in yer face bumcracks. Great for the C02 footprint. The GAA are a drain on resources for a wider range of sports – we have hardly any olympic sized pools and a paltry… Read more »
Noreen that is wishful thinking, keep telling yourself that. meanwhile in the real world, there are a hell of a lot of people stuck in 40 mortgages, on property that is losing money by the day. The only good things is, you no longer have to listen them boasting about how they are millionaires on paper.
Ah, Paul, I think you misunderstood me. Obviously there are many people who bought and are now in big trouble – my query was your assumption that it was the talented and ambitious who were disproportionately affected. I just haven’t seen any statistics that said ‘less talented’ people were less likely to own property. The lending practices of the last few years were fairly indiscriminate!
[…] Read the article on David McWilliams’ website. […]
The reality is that, as long as ‘the country plays host to all sorts of foreigners’, “our own” are NOT forced to live in Queens or Camden. They CHOOSE to, since they cannot compete with the “all sorts”, and the London Olympics may provide some money for their brawn to shine – for a little while.
Spending a few years working abroad, finding out how other people solve familiar problems might be a good thing, if the emigrants were to return home and apply their positive foreign experiences to improve a characteristically Irish Ireland. However, we Irish have been doing this for generations, but instead of Dev’s ‘ideal’, we now have a horrible Irish conjunction of everything from Brent to the Costa del Sol to Queens, for better or for worse. TS Eliot said:– “We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know… Read more »
noreen and brendan w are spot on. only a gobshite would buy a house (thrown up quicker than a whore’s knickers) for 10 times his salary. only a ultimate gobshite (there’s plenty of them) would boast about being a homeowner. were they trying to impress their peers? of course they were! clever paddy didn’t buy. he’s mobile and free to follow the money. so, did the government ever think our youngsters would leave (didn’t mary “dessert trolley” harney boast about this government performing so well our young people need not emigrate)? why would they stay in these conditions? i’ve mentioned… Read more »
Not so long ago (late 1980’s), there was over 70k per year emigrating through necessity. This had gone down to as low as 10k during the ‘boom’ while immigration rose to nearly 100k per annum. With over 20k redundancies announced in a quarter, 18k last month joining the dole queue — these are ‘massive’ numbers considering our population continues to increase. We have over 2 million working mainly providing ‘services’ in the public & private sectors where demand /budgets are moving in one direction… Unfortunately, it won’t be long before we have unprecedented levels of emigration and unemployment ! David,… Read more »
Noreen & Paul
I should imagine that although the smart and the less smart are equally wading through the property quagmire, the very smart got out 18 months ago and are well into the next thing.
Hi , with reference to Mr Johnny Dunne , ‘I agree it’s not very helpful to be taking the view, we deserve to be where we are, that’ll teach us etc.’ It Certainly Is !, a first year economic student in secondary school should be able to tell , you cannot sustain an economy on construction and it’s attached services indefinably, for the last 2 years Mr Williams here and Mr Cooper on his radio show have been talking about the ‘construction slow down’ , but were put down for talking the economy down !, and survey after survey we… Read more »
@Paul. Maybe some people stayed out of the market who have talent. I am 34 and stayed out of the market on purpose and I am not lacking in talent. I walked away from a house in 1999 and still have no regrets. Its all very well having a high flying job and a great house but if you are in debt up to your ears with an over priced house as a rapidly diminishing “asset” you’re looking a bit dumb now. If your job moves or the opportunities move you are screwed because your mortgage and other loans has… Read more »
Just a personal observation based on my experience working with MNCs. I would like to know if anyone noticed similar – maybe there’s numbers on this. Since the mid 90s I saw many very clever management folks who came and lived here or were “grown” here ramping up MNC investments. They lived in tight communities something like some walled in wealthy ex-pat communities you find in 3rd world countries (without the walls) . They loved it here – but as outsourcing cut in as our costs ramped locally, they got pushed and just moved on – usually to London, Paris… Read more »
Seems a very lazy article.Why did you not compare the January and July figures for previous years?.Obviously, more people will leave during the Summer months’.
@Philip I agree totally. I would go further and say that Irish “management” outside the MNC sector is haphazard and depends more on politics and bullying than actual competence.
When I was in the US in 2001 I was amazed how the Irish organized themselves in Queens and Boston by their County or GAA affiliations. Outside of this you were screwed and got no work.
Philip, interesting point about the MNCs. Might explain why there are not enough senior MNC managers developing indigineous businesses or growing MNCs. If these ‘leaders’ aren’t in Ireland, there won’t be opportunities to create sustainable enterpises for the future. Then investment capital must go overseas ?
Paul in your post “it is the less talented that are free to move, because they could not afford to get onto the property ladder” clearly implies that the talented did get onto the property ladder. I believe I’m reasonably talented, Irish, emigrated in 2004 after being offerred the ‘opportunity’ to buy a house in central dublin for a mere 9 times my salary (I had a considerable deposit). The house needed re-roofing and re-wiring and didn’t have central heating. The numbers just didn’t make sense. My point? Plenty of smart and talented people said – hang on – this… Read more »
The GAA championships in the US host a bunch of Irish-based players that typically are out of their own local championships in Ireland and are at a loose end. They are really well taken care of by the clubs here – flown out, housed, fed, watered, set up in jobs and take a nice dosh of cash for their services………..so there is a “hot” summer market there that may throw off your numbers in the GAA transfers………US clubs have seen an aging group of players that are based in their cities, and have to rely on heavy fundraising which in… Read more »
Ref To Michael, spot on here These figures when studied over a period do of course show this, lads here have been doing it when they can’t get onto first teams here or when their clubs do not need them , and as the irony is they get well ‘look after ‘ state side fixed up with work and a few dollars for ‘their services’ at the weekend’s. So Mr Williams with this article is throwing out just maybe to fill his contracted column inches here to a degree,. but you are right in current climate (economically and climatic )… Read more »
Some More Good News Mr B, regarding the bankers , Lehman Brothers the big US investment house ( no doubt an Office up in the IFSC , have losses for third quarter coming in at $40 billion ! 700% higher than what has been estimated, so watch what that will do to the markets .
Just glad I bought in 1990 rented out and sold out in 2005, when my Bank ‘advisory’ wanted me to trade up !
ref. last posting before been corrected , Lehman Brothers on target for $4 Billion only ,. but watch what this will do to our banking stocks !
@Brendan W. You got out at the right time. Fair dues. Re Lehman Brothers. Yippee. The more the market falls the better it is for me. Both of the businesses I am involved in are countercyclical. The nastier the recession (if it happens) is the better it is for me. The rising market and celtic tiger were a total disaster for my business. Nobody wants lifejackets on a calm day. The thing about voting in Ireland is that the vast majority couldn’t give a shite and don’t bother to register or vote skewing the result towards the parties with the… Read more »
At Fergal, “If you bought since 2002, and you’re still there in 09 or 10, you’re a sucker for sure. A realistic price for the average house is 5 – 7 times annual salary. Pay over that, and unless you’re lucky, you’ll be fleeced at some point.” Fergal, I bought in 2005 a house 3.5 times my annual salary. My salary is above average but not much more. My theory was that the market was going to crash…it’s been on the cards since 2000 if you ask me but I needed a house. I bought the worst house on the… Read more »
Philip and Brendan, I totally agree that the politics has to change if we’re to become serious about developing our country to it full potential. Last night’s prime time made me sick to see the smirk on Willie O’Dea’s face while trotting out the same old spin – “a slap in the gob”- might teach him to show some respect for our people in these uncertain and trying times – not a care in the world on his big inflated salary He was behaving like a cocky celebrity with contempt for anybody who questioned his government’s strategy or lack thereof… Read more »
“If you got suckered in, it’s for one reason – you’re not that smart. As someone said above, the real smart ones got in early and out before the crash. If you bought since 2002, and you’re still there in 09 or 10, you’re a sucker for sure. A realistic price for the average house is 5 – 7 times annual salary. Pay over that, and unless you’re lucky, you’ll be fleeced at some point.” Yes Fergal The Irish are not smart at all, they got rightly suckered, and now they are heading the way of the Japanese. I see… Read more »
B said “The more the market falls the better it is for me. Both of the businesses I am involved in are countercyclical. The nastier the recession (if it happens) is the better it is for me. The rising market and celtic tiger were a total disaster for my business.” This is a prime example of ‘contra-economics’, which seems to be the motive for participation in this blog by several of the respondents here. It is characterized by delight at the fall in property, glee at the failure of banks, heaping blame on FF for the downturn and distaste for… Read more »
Hi,
Yes, the numbers used are meaningless without putting them in seasonal context. It would be great if David could have a look at them. Its a very clever barometer and if the pattern we see from jan to june 08 is not apparent every year, then it is an interesting change. I’d say the increase in those wanting to go into teaching (anecdotal but also evident in the points system (CAO)) is also a very interesting outcome. Have a look at the CAO data and give us your thoughts!
Thanks.
@Malcolm McClure It is not a motive it is a reality. The business does not do as well as it should when easy credit and the client companies have customers awash with more money than sense. When the recession bites invoices will go unpaid and people will try to skip off without paying their debts. Systems and companies go lax in fair sailing and are lost when things go bad as they probaly have never experienced it and blind panic sets in and their heads head for the sand. I was around for the last recession and will be around… Read more »
B, the developers were only working within the framework laid down by government, of course the government were well rewarded for their part in the plot. It beggars belief that they, the government, should promote such a risky policy and then when the dogs in the street knew the game was up, continued to push the illusion very forcefully – realists such as David were condemned from on high as though he was some kind of traitor – the serious question is, are these people, the government, working in our collective interests or is it simply in the interests of… Read more »
Hi All,
I’ve done a bit of number crunching on this issue, and the results contradict many of the things David says in his article. The details are here: http://www.stephenkinsella.net.
Thanks,
Stephen
B said “I deal with the reality that usually hits you in the face after mindless optimism is smote down by a lack of cash flow…. Constantly looking for the bright side is the mindset of a simpleton. Concentrate on the upside but minimise the exposure to external risks and minimise the downside. That, B, is excellent advice at any point in the cycle. Ensure that: ‘Heads you win plenty; tails you don’t lose much.’ However, as you have told us, your business plan depends on the failures of others. No harm in that, at all, at all, but it… Read more »
Stephen Kinsella, any view on movement of good players? Typically, the good ones leave before the rest know what is happening – so 07 could be interpreted as more worrying – horse having bolted. As I stated above, I saw immigration of many key individuals 6 years ago. This has petered out and I think we are going to see the effects of a loss of influence. This is a personal experience. Malcolm McClure, I agree with your view that we should try and control our negative emotions with respect to Government, Banks and Developers etc. But people are not… Read more »
Hi David, I’m not sure if GAA Player transfers can be a leading or accurate indicator of people movement, and as some have pointed out, perhaps the months you used and indeed the data set did not back up the case you were making, which is that Ireland can and does ‘export people’ (ie: people emigrate when there are better opportunities elsewhere. It has ever been thus, emmigration and immgration is a fact of life and part and parcel of our culture. Whether that is currently happening now or about to happen is still not definitive. The CSO figures (which… Read more »
My business plan does not wait for failure. We just have the experience to help extricate companies from self made disasters. So we will let them fail if thats your logic. Most of our business has come from an unwillingness to face reality. A lot of frothy businesses providing services that are debt fuelled and discretionary are looking at the wall now.
I don’t see you complaining about ambulance chasing lawyers or corrupt mortgage advisers creaming money off in the boom.
Philip said: “Certainly the policy of having 50% of the country employed by the building industry is akin to taking bookie type advice. Any responsible leader/ manager in a similar situation would mitigate such a risk asap ”
Bertie was a consummate politician, not the kind of guy who would stand in front of a runaway bus. The dogs in the street knew a couple of years ago that it had to end sometime. Meantime national consensus was “Lets make hay while the sun shines”.
Ref Malcolm McClure and ‘Our Negative begrudgery towards the developers and Government !…..Mr McClure what state agency are you working for ? ..as your in an alluded bubble ! , I do not begrudge any person who gets up and takes a risk or chance in the commerical scense , but stating that devlopers give employment and the Government developed a strong economy, well then your are either brain washed and working with a state body or your on some new happy drug. ! If Developers are such good guys creating all these jobs for the trades people , why… Read more »
Brendan W: You have quite seriously misquoted me. Please read again what I actually wrote. Also I can assure you that I do not fall in any of the categories that you have suggested. We live in a democracy and we enjoy free speech and access to our TDs and councillors. We do not have to wait for an election to make our concerns known to them. We can lobby them in their consituency offices and elsewhere. They are not always remote Aunt Sallies, only available for remote expressions of outrage on the web. If enough displeased people appear in… Read more »
Malcolm McClure, great to see someone taking the opposing view and demanding alternative answers. And it is good to see others highlighting contradictions in inaccuracies in David’s column. That’s how we learn here. I fully agree with you on… “Bertie was a consummate politician, not the kind of guy who would stand in front of a runaway bus. The dogs in the street knew a couple of years ago that it had to end sometime. Meantime national consensus was “Lets make hay while the sun shines”. ” The snag was that the “hay” has proving to be a poor feed/bedding… Read more »
Philip, How in all honesty is going with the Government line an opposing view?
To Mr McClure …. Your Answers , not only have I voted , but I have had dinner with politicians and senators and shared a few drinks too with my local councilors ( when I did drink ! ) and have had dealings as far up as the Health Ministry….. But as others even on this page alone, will tell you , they are a shower of cute whores , when I brought up their unwillingness to speak up , the general response has been,…. ah sure Brendan we;re doing our Bit and sure you can’t please every body !.… Read more »
@ Phillip,
What constitutes a good player? One who plays for his county? That’s in the data.
Brendan W said: “..not only have I voted , but I have had dinner with politicians and senators and shared a few drinks too with my local councilors” Brendan, you’re never going to get a coherent response from politicians over the port and nuts.– Make an appointment. Go to your TD’s office and have it out, calmly, face to face. If that doesn’t concentrate his/her mind, then start up a ‘Constituency Discontented’ website, where other disaffected voters can get together to plan concerted action. Place an ad explaining its purpose in your local newspaper and be ready with suggested policy… Read more »
What, is , with, the, commas, all over, the , place and ,, in the mid,dle of sentences? Are there no coherent Irishmen left?
@ Mr McClure port and nuts !, these meetings were all business meetings which finished with simple coffees after desserts but any way !. What you’ve put forward here regarding a ‘Constituency Discontented website’ is actually a great idea. But I’ll await to hear our Leaders address to the nation when he gets back from his caravan first and I have some consultancy work taking me to Italy and Dubai also in September, but I’ll hold on for the winter of discontent here first ! @ Mr B ,,…. we are at the best of times in coherent or are… Read more »
Ref Ed’s comment about Willie O’Dea on Prime Time in a ‘debate’ with Richard Bruton. The only ‘solutions’ mentioned by either was to cut government spending ‘if they can’, continue ‘original’ NDP plan, breach the EU 3% of GDP for borrowings and they won’t cut taxes. O’Dea seemed to say ‘sure there is nothing else we can do’ as we are a small open economy exposed to a downturn. Do the politicians really understand what is going on ? For example, the CSO reported this week the value of exports were down 8% for June compared to same time last… Read more »
“Look what the cat dragged in” “Some people HAD to buy”. Give me some reasons, the Germans rent, most of Manhattan rents. Did you have to buy? Why? Did you consider emigrating? You’re probably reasonably OK, thoughh how you bought a house in central Dublin for 3.5 times your slightly above average income eludes me. In 2002 I was making about EUR 40K (pre-tax) and was looking for very similar to what you described – central and cheap. The closest I got to what I had resigned myself to (not wanted) was EUR 360K. In any case, anyone who is… Read more »