If you want to know what is going on in the property market don’t talk to an estate agent. The best leading indicator of the market is Mover Mark — the king of furniture movers. A conversation with a lad in a big white van stuffed to the gills with other people’s possessions is by far the most instructive steer you will get on the property market.
Typically, these days the Irish lad is a subcontractor and the fellas doing the heavy lifting are Brazilian “students”. The Brazilians seem to have cornered the lifting end of the movers’ market. But Mover Mark is the man who can tell you the real story.
In the past three months, according to Mover Mark, his prices have increased as demand has also increased dramatically. You can see this for yourself on moving sites. People are on the move and rather than doing it themselves, they are hiring lads to do it for them.
As result of a few of these conversations and taking into account how the economy is performing, it looks like 2017 could be the year that Dublin house prices begin to rise again, particularly in the more upmarket areas that, contrary to popular belief, have been in the doldrums for the past year.
In today’s excellent supplement we capture a market recovering strongly in urban centres outside Dublin, but not in the capital itself.
The key to understanding where the housing market goes next is not only what happens to new-builds, but also what is happening to the existing stock of houses.
This is because the existing stock is (a) much bigger and (b) should reflect demographics.
As people get older and their incomes rise, there is a tendency to sell their starter homes to the next generation of new families and move upmarket into houses sold by empty nesters trading down.
This is what should happen in a healthy market and was the case in Ireland up until recently.
However, it is difficult to overstate two demographic factors that have changed the smooth operation of the housing market.
The first massive change is that the first-time buyers of the 2000s are still in significant negative equity and they can’t afford to move at all. As long as there is negative equity, people can’t trade up without taking a massive hit.
This is why home improvement is going through a massive growth spurt as evidenced by the traffic to IKEA.
The second factor is that kids are not leaving the nest in the way they used to, largely because of (a) the cost of accommodation and (b) the fact that for the first time ever (possibly) Irish parents are allowing their kids to sleep with their partners at home. Once you can sleep with your girlfriend at home, get your washing done and have beer money you’d have otherwise coughed up on rent, why the hell would you move out?
Adult children are postponing moving out because they’ve no traditional reason to do so! After all, be honest, why did you really move out at 21? These days, tens of thousands don’t move out until they have their own kids.
The massive move out of Irish kids in their early 20s, which was a feature of my generation, isn’t happening. Therefore, trading down isn’t happening in the same way as it used to.
So the market is stuck.
The first-time buyers of the first decade of the century can’t trade up and the 1980s parents, who should be trading down, are staying put because their kids are now shacking up at home right under their noses.
That was the status quo from 2008 to now. However, it is changing because of population dynamics. The population of Irish kids in their 20s is actually falling. There are many more thirtysomethings in Ireland than twentysomethings.
This is due to the collapse in the birth-rate in the 1980s and 1990s. The thirtysomethings are having kids later now but they are having them; and now they are moving out to nest.
So even parents who have replaced Mass with making little Sophie’s breakfast on a Sunday morning, will find that there are just fewer friends staying over at weekends. Irish family sizes in the 1980s shrunk dramatically and now these smaller families are moving out and they are allowing their parents to trade down.
This happens slowly because demographic changes happen slowly, but we can see evidence of it starting. These are the real fundamentals of the property market and this explains why there has been an uptick in prices in the commuter counties outside the capital.
These places are where the young couples are buying.
The next phase of this familial/demographic trend will be more mature houses coming on stream in Dublin.
Now also think about the first-time buyers of the 2000s. As house prices rise in the commuter belt, they are the ones who are gaining. As their balance sheets recover, they will start to sell because they will no longer be in negative equity.
So they are in the position to bid for the 1980s homes in Dublin. These are the very homes that the people who want to trade down will want to sell. So what is likely to happen?
Price expectations in established areas will change in the coming months and that change will be upwards.
When there is an expectation that prices are going to go up, it is understandable that the people who own the land will wait for prices to go ever higher, thus squeezing potential buyers. It is also understandable that potential buyers will panic when they see prices rising and bring forward their demand so they won’t be left behind.
What do you think happens to supply?
Traditional economics suggests that when the price rises the supply will rise, but is this what actually happens in real life? If owners of land and houses believe that prices are going to rise, wouldn’t they be mad to sell now when they can make more money by delaying? So supply doesn’t rise when price expectations rise, it actually falls.
Only a change in demographics can change this psychological dynamic. The change in demographics is here. So the market for mature homes in Dublin will become more liquid as parents with now empty nests sell. The first-time buyers who have recovered from negative equity will buy and prices will rise.
At least that’s what Mover Mark told me and I’ll take his “on the ground” view over any top down analysis anytime.
On the Ball as always David!
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Great article, and it’s only missing one thing or one variable, which you’ve kind of alluded to when you mentioned the Brazilian “students”. There is now zero control over the number of people who are coming here as economic migrants, many coming from South America, China, India, Africa, Pakistan, Turkey, all non EU countries by the way! There are no wars going on in any of these countries yet they are now coming here in huge numbers and in many cases, working here illegally. Sadly in this country, we are living under a complete illusion that this open door policy… Read more »
@DarraghD Had just come to the same realisation. Reason.– I am aware of a large multinational nearby a couple of years ago had a round of non voluntary redundancies, Only long term employed native Irish were affected, Since then, Things picked up but the only new employee’s taken on were (presumably lesser paid) non nationals! So, It seems no irish need apply! These companies have no real sense of social or ‘corporate responsibility’ and its all about the rewards of low corporation tax. However I fear this will only go so far before people have the consequences thrust in front… Read more »
This country is the most primed place on earth right now for someone like Trump to emerge onto the political tables and to completely up-end the absolute and utter clusterfuck that is the Irish political landscape and Irish society at the moment. And I’ll make no apologies whatsoever for saying that if such a person appeared here for political office, I’d be out canvassing for them. And just like we saw in the US with Trump, it’s simmering just beneath the surface, it’s not obvious in the polls and in the daily analysis on the evening TV and on the… Read more »
I’m selling a 2 bed townhouse outside Galway city, something I bought off the plans in 2003. I have set a price not much higher than what I paid for it (terrible investment). I will get out ASAP, one of the few not waiting for prices to go higher, but there is still not much demand, and it is affordable, especially with stupid rental price
Minor point of humour : I presume that everybody knows that IKEA is an acronym that in German translates as “Idiots Can Aquire Anything” ???? Anyway, yes there is a lot of movement. Movement of employment. Movement to schools. Movement because owners are increasing their incomes. Movement because of empty nesting. Movement because certain areas are being gentrified. Movement because certain areas are being turned into crime riddled hell holes. The movement is facilitated by changes in the take home pay picture. There is a lot of money awaiting an investment plan. However, there are vulnerabilitities in the Irish economy.… Read more »
This anti-immigrant rhetoric is like nationalists in Ancient Rome complaining about the number of non-Romans in the Roman Army. They were blind to the fact that the problem lay not in the presence of immigrants but in Rome having become dependent upon them. The fat and happy Roman citizens were no longer willing to do the work done by immigrants, like fighting for Rome. President Trump has promised to “Make America Great Again” by building a wall against Mexicans in order to “bring our jobs back” and to scrap NATO. How did that work out for the Roman Empire? I… Read more »
Trump just conducted his 1st drone-stike ;
Against the sticken & extremely poor victims of Yemen.
How about scrutinizing Trump’s staff team ?
Did they persuade him to do that evil act ?
Do they have a hidden agenda ?
Is it much the same as the hidden agenda of Obama’s staff team ?
Will the “Women’s March on DC” crowd challenge the drone strike policy ?
I think not.
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The article sounds like it is aimed at anyone with an academic interest in economics or anyone dabbling in the housing market. When you point people to ‘today’s excellent supplement’ you sound like you are promoting property porn and then you hint that we have a healthy housing sector in Ireland. As if. Then we have bland statements on demographics and why people should hoard land and properties because prices are rising. It is all academic and straight out of a mainstream economics textbook. We tried all this before and looked what happened in 2008. Here are some numbers quoted… Read more »
Blaming immigrants is pathetic. The Irish have been making a bollox out of running their country for 100 years and that’s not set to change.
Demographics change being readied in that precious little democracy in the Middle East. This theatre is where we will see plenty of the worst of Trump play out sure. Worldwide economy effects because of greed by the one-&-only super-power for the poor neighbouring people’s land. And, economists will end up having to talk about the morality of the continuous momentous events. “Man does not live on bread alone.” Sometimes, the moral aspect is important enough to be the theme of the economist’s discussion ; “Fire up the bulldozers,” says Trump’s biggest fan in Jerusalem 19 January 2017 https://electronicintifada.net/blogs/michael-f-brown/fire-bulldozers-says-trumps-biggest-fan-jerusalem Israel approves… Read more »
Anyway, there has been an avalanche of dramatics, hyperbola, lies, and sheer bullsh!t, in the media for months.
We need to get to the actual matter of importance : policy making.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-22/preview-trumps-seven-imminent-executive-orders
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/757457/Gang-rapes-woman-in-Sweden-and-broadcast-it-on-FACEBOOK-LIVE
By the way, Mover Mark is only a fraction of the movements. Most people do their own moving, or call on people they know for assistance.
In essence the level of movement is only reflected, at the high end, by Mover Mark.
“After all, be honest, why did you really move out at 21” I wanted to shag the brains out of my protestant girl friend and I did. I was so green (and catholic) I didn’t even know she was a prod. Small head was doing the thinking that time. You made no mention of the 20% rule for the second purchase Dathi. Assuming your analysis; more mature houses coming on stream due to the drip off in population size what happens when the mature house supply dries up and prices start sky rocketing? The 20% rule is fixed so the… Read more »
The Clintons wanting to get back in power was hard enough to endure. The DNC told the rest of the party it was already a done deal. And when Sanders tried to upset the applecart, he had the DNC undermining him, and the media ignoring him, until it became too late for him to win – at which point they gave him loads of attention. And then there was the move by the Obamas to stay close to Washington, even though he is no longer in power. It seems that the latest trend is for political leaders who never go… Read more »
This Mark fella, he is not going to tell anyone that he is doing OK or i’m tipping along nicely… No, this is typical of one of those people who have a particular business to run and to keep it going through an age of fear and uncertainty. These are the people who have a vested interest in talking up this floundering economy just like the unscrupulous Auctioneers, Media, Banks and Government. Come on, who wants to live in Dublin anyway, the housing market is way over inflated by greedy desperate people who are trying to get a crumb from… Read more »
The war on cash is the next leg iron on the world population. Just think how many billions of people will be affected without access to cash (See the results in India) What will it do to your day to day activities to have no cash Think of the control the government now has on your daily activities. think hoe easy it will be to control you when the tap to your moey can be turned on and off at will by an official or bureaucrat. Meanwhile as we argue and debate relatively harmless happenstances we all sleepwalk into future… Read more »
MORE ARTIFICIAL DEMOGRAPHICS CHANGE BELOW — UK — ULTIMATELY DESIGNED TO HAVE SHOCKING, & THEREON INCREMENTALLY CORRUPTING, IMPACT ON UR KIDS ; AFTER ALL ; “ENGLAND, THE COUNTRY WE LOVE TO HATE ; BUT, NEVER CEASE TO IMITATE.” OF COURSE, THE MEDIA ARE THE MAIN CONDITIONERS FOR PEOPLE TO FEEL INSECURE ABOUT THEIR GENDER. BUT, THE MEDIA ARE ONLY REALLY ABLE TO MAKE INROADS BECAUSE THERE IS LACK OF REAL LOVE IN THE UPBRINGING OF THESE PEOPLE WHEN THEY CHILDREN. HEADING ; 22 JAN 2017 Boys can now be Girl Guides if they identify as female. And the same applies… Read more »
We are ignoring bank securities given to Banks . It is more important than what is perceived and nobody seems to write about it . EU Banks are insolvent and that means they are technically bankrupt and this year will reveal who has clothes or not . Irish Banks are weaker . Should an Irish Bank go bankrupt deposits will be lost due to new laws on Bail -Ins ( subject to Government Guarantees ). In the end those guarantees may be issued in tokens by the Government and not Euros . The Elephant in the room seems invisible namely… Read more »
@ Deco . Apropos of ur post above ; January 23, 2017 at 8:44 am “There is only ONE functioning democracry in the Middle East. …” The following link from the respected independent journalist, & Irish Citizen, & former USA Marine, Ken O’Keefe : complements ur post enhances ur post challenges ur post HEADING Ken o’ Keefe dissects Israel and Saudi Arabia. MUST WATCH ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVP1CYb3q0w I think that Trump will help u know who to run the blood baths again. And, I believe that Trump will renege on his promise to investigate the convincing evidence that “u know who”… Read more »
ANY STATISTICS TO SHOW THAT THE IRISH ARE GOING MORE ROTTEN IN THEIR HEARTS ? THAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE ABOUT THE IRISH. Have a witness of the following youtube video ; HEADING Truth About The Irish Potato Famine Genocide EXCERPT ; . Toll of Irish Holocaust. The 1841 census of Ireland revealed a population of 10,897,449. This figure includes the correction factor established by that year’s official partial recount. When, between 1779 & 1841, the U.S.A. population increased by 640 %, & England’s is estimated to have increased, despite massive emigration to its colonies, by 100 %,… Read more »
IS THIS PHENOMENON GONNA HAPPEN TO IRELAND TOO ?
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HEADING
Super-rich American ‘preppers’ buying in New Zealand ready for US doomsday
24 Jan, 2017
https://www.rt.com/business/374891-us-collapse-super-rich/
I heard of one Hedge fund manager who already has.
Local builder doing very well out of constant superficial modifications made on a whim.
One example- Euro 25k spent on changing route of year old Driveway, just sent marked up photos from PC for that and he only visits once a year. Builder doing well out of it all, buts its disgusting.
Does he think we’d be less forgiving here if the pitch forks come for the ‘Let them eat cake brigade’?
hi David,
Like I said Trump will build his wall to keep americans in;
http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/silicon-valleys-super-rich-are-eyeing-new-zealand-for-escape-plans/news-story/d3edc3233b30ef381b66414d2c7b05a7
wall being built;
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/01/trump-signs-order-border-wall-mexico-170125185244055.html
How about dem apples? How long before the EU follows suit?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/executive-order-border-security-and-immigration-enforcement-improvements
Links worth perusing : Hold + Drag over the URL > Right Click > Select “Go to … the particular URL” Re ; Agenda of Mr. Sore-Ass .lifesitenews.com/news/pro-abort-billionaire-george-soros-gave-nearly-90-million-to-feminist-anti?utm_content=buffer9f5fa&utm_medium=social&utm_source=lifesitenews%2Btwitter&utm_campaign=buffer Re ; Survivors of German concentration camps in Germany & occupied Poland Thankfully the Germans were not typically efficient. So, we have survivors. https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/824328135097208832 Re ; The real sponsors of ISIS .reuters.com/article/us-mideast-israel-syria-idUSKBN1581I4 Re ; Corporation sub-contracted to run False Flags ; Both real & fake atrocities sgtreport.com/2017/01/bombshell-solving-the-puzzle-its-dyncorp-behind-the-mass-shootings-you-see-in-america/ Re ; Propaganda from Main-stream Media .naturalnews.com/048714_mainstream_media_propaganda_lies.html#ixzz3SmFwXymY Re ; False Flags that have since been admitted by establishment / perpetrators .globalresearch.ca/fifty-eight-admitted-false-flag-attacks/5505411 Re ; Michael Moore… Read more »
Some responses to issues that grabbed my attention: To David The ROCK effect – Housing in Dublin is really about “wealth” or an attempt at creating wealth by the haves, a la Ross O’Carroll Kelly. But at what cost? We eat our young. And regional Ireland is held in absolute contempt by those whose forebears recently (1 or 2 generations ago) moved off the land. Another smug article in today’s Irish Times by Miriam Lord re the buffoonery of the latest Regional Policies. We need a serious plan to grow Ireland’s, not Dublin’s wealth. On a linked topic, wonder what… Read more »
Fillon was a candidate to “Make France Efficient Again”. And now he is poleaxed. This means a run off between the centre left and Le Pen. Which increases Le Pen’s favourability with the electorate. In France the left are incompetent, wasteful and clueless as to how to run the country. In France the centre right often corrupt, afraid to make decisions in the greater interest, and even arrogant. And sure enough, the corruption problem has surfaced again. The problem in France, is that the leadership deficit is so bad, that somebody needs to do what Fillon is promising to do… Read more »
Phoenix Park!
Phoenix Park!
Does it not have the relevance,
Of the old Aardvark,
Notastuffnotastuffwecannevernernernevernevernevergetenough,
But don’t think soever that Dublin can’t share,
Of Reading Gaol and Merrion Square.
Will the Brexit turn Irexit,
Ian Dury cannot tell,
But Ian Dury led to fury,
The toll asked not the bell.
Will the Brexit turn Irexit,
You’d best ask Dr Fell,
Ev’ry side will try to sexit,
And we can go to hell.
To Hell or to Connaught
To Connaught or Hell
To sleep with the fishes
Of Scotland full well
To ask us to finish the job
Of Cromwell
Do not ask do not ask
For whom tolls the bell
The Wildeness of Merrion
Call in Dr Fell
Perhaps Yeats’s wine bar
Could give us a clue
To wish us all Gonne
Best of luck to that too.
Fast and funny, smart and nimble,
is his mind, the poet thinks,
making what is complex simple,
mixing metaphors like drinks,
till becoming quite inebriate,
his speech begins to slur,
manic as a tom-cat mated,
his poems they fail to purr,
thoughts like lemming herds stampeded,
fearlessly they dash,
unrestrained by lousy software,
on pixeled screens they crash,
as slow as death and sadly humbled,
like cats that have been fixed,
static as statistics stumbled,
in metaphors he’s mixed.
Of him that writeth things Divine to men: But must I needs want solidness, because By Metaphors I speak; was not Gods Laws, His Gospel-laws in older time held forth By Types, Shadows and Metaphors? Yet loth Will any sober man be to find fault With them, lest he be found for to assault The highest Wisdom. No, he rather stoops, And seeks to find out what by pins and loops, By Calves, and Sheep; by Heifers, and by Rams; By Birds and Herbs, and by the blood of Lambs; God speaketh to him: And happy is he That finds… Read more »
The Truth, as Cabinets inclose the Gold.
The prophets used much by Metaphors
To set forth Truth; Yea, who so considers
Christ, his Apostles too, shall plainly see,
That Truths to this day in such Mantles be.
@ Grzegorz,
I came across the title to this youtube video by chance ;
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It is very recent.
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This video-blogger is very searching & perceptive.
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TITLE
Poland & Sth China Sea A Pincer On Eurasia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QU2VmfjmxXg
SORE-ASS IS DETERMINED TO BREAK TRUMP ; JUST LIKE HE BROKE : THE BANK OF ENGLAND THE MALAYSIAN ECONOMY EXCERPT ; . “… Soros’s comments to the international economic elite in Switzerland come after Wall Street analysts have begun referring to him as a “wounded beast” and warned that he is “hell bent on revenge” after his candidate failed to win the election. Pundits and market analysts have been keeping a close eye on the “wounded beast” in recent weeks to determine his next move and reports are now emerging that the funds Soros wasted on Clinton are set to… Read more »
This is very ironic with its messianic character named Trump & reference to the building of a “wall” ;
And, there is more.
TITLE ;
EXPOSED: Donald Trump Predictive Programming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R3DRrnoATws&feature=youtu.be
http://www.herald.ie/news/terrified-shoppers-attacked-as-250-gang-rivals-battle-in-facebookstaged-street-riot-35342728.html Any thoughts on that anyone? :-( I think we need a US style police – otherwise how is Ireland going to attract post-Brexit companies in a city that, on that day, resembled Rwanda? I have to say, that could not have happened in Poland – I mean: it does occasionally happen after football matches all right, but first of all normal people usually know in advance that there is a football match and avoid hools, secondly they do set-to – they do not attack random shoppers, and thirdly if they go overboard, they usually get such lashing from the… Read more »
UTOPIA dream or nightmare
https://lofi.phys.org/news/2017-01-french-ponder-joie-de-vivre.html
For some reason I’m getting a very strong vibe that Ireland is important to Donald Trump.
He is definitely trying to encourage us to join the Great Atlantic Divide.
Is anyone else getting this vibe and if so why might we be important to Trump.
What strategic importance does he place on us? Is it simply a part of a divide and conquer strategy.
@ Grzegorz, A] ““it’s either ME or him” – so it was HIM (he now lives 165km away and is told not to enter my town” ME = Grzegorz ? ME = “Grumpy Theologian” from East Belfast ? HIM = “Grumpy Theologian” from East Belfast ? B] U disputed Makow’s interpretation on the Jewishness of the top Nazi’s before. And, most of what u listed this time around seems to be re-hash of that said counter by u. I was perplexed that u kept referring to Makow — Jewish background from Germany — in this context when really I referring… Read more »
Guys, you won’t believe this: I am just reading that one in eight full time posts advertised for hospitals consultants received no applications in 2015, and another 28 job offers attracted just one candidate (according to HSE report commissioned by its chief Tony O’Brien). The report has also found an interesting way of recruiting staff which reminds me of the feudal system: a doctor can only be replaced if the previous one has retired.This results in sudden vacancies foe posts that they knew would be open a long time ago. But the funniest thing is probably the finding of the… Read more »
Is anyone concerned that NANA is still doing this sort of deal.
http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0127/848255-nama-sells-1-5bn-portfolio-to-us-firm-for-450m/
A lot of blog writers nowadays yet just a few have blog posts worth spending time on reviewing.Really thank you! Cool.