Regular readers of this column will know that we forget Russia on the global stage at our peril. Russia is still a major player in our part of the world.
Much of the EU lies at the end of a huge pipeline of Russian gas. Russia will heat Europe this winter. In what is now known as the ‘Middle East’, Russia has long been a presence. When Russia looks south it sees the Muslim world. When we look south we see the sea. Russia’s entire southern border is Islamic; America’s is Mexico. The Soviet Union was defeated, not by Americans, but by Muslims in Afghanistan.
As a result, Russia is always keenly aware of the region, its ethnicities, and various ancient peoples who live cheek-by-jowl whether Persians, Turks, Kurds or Arabs.
It has constantly backed Iran, which backed Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and it has stood behind Assad and his father through many Arab-Israeli conflicts. Russia, for its own geo-strategic ends, values political stability over adventurism. And, if the results of the past 10 years are anything to go by, so too should most people.
Signs of Russia’s potency and America’s decline in the region are important visits to Moscow: Assad visited recently, as did Israel’s bossman Benjamin Netanyahu and, just before both of them, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt.
On the other side is Saudi Arabia, which has been tacitly supporting Sunni groups, like Isil and, of course, there is Turkey, whose president has been happy to accommodate Islamic groups of all sorts. Traditionally, and pre-dating the Arabs, the Ottomans and Iran have been implacable enemies. So there is lots of ‘previous’ in the area.
But now it seems that the Isil threat to the regions has brought Russia and America – and perhaps Egypt and Israel, and possibly even Iran and Turkey – together, on the same side.
Why would this be? Is it understandable revulsion at the beheading of innocents, or is it the refugee crisis in south-central Europe?
No: it’s the oil. Isil undefeated is a threat to the oil regions of the Middle East, and that’s a threat to everyone. Just look at the map.
It shows where Isil is and what oil fields are within its range. You can see that the Kurdish area of northern Iraq is threatened, and so too are the Shia oilfields of southern Iraq.
Oil has been central to the Isil governing strategy from the start. As distinct from al-Qa’ida, Isil wants to create a caliphate and that costs money. If you want to run a state, then you have to finance that state. Currently around 6.5 million people live in Isil-held territory in Iraq and Syria and, quite apart from extortion, oil revenues are a significant source of cash for Isil. It’s thought that Isil gets around $8million a month for oil sales from the oilfields it controls in Syria and Iraq.
Isil sells the oil in Turkey and even in Syria at way below market value via a series of middlemen. It is also trying to operate refineries and is known to have kidnapped local engineers to try to maintain these refineries.
Isil needs cash.
Not only is Isil trying to build a caliphate, but, according to the King of Jordan, it is paying its Jihadists up to $1,000 a month, which is way above the local salary. The group is therefore burning through money at a rapid rate and the only way it can build its State and keep its troops fighting in the field is by having more and more money.
Where will it get the cash?
From oil, of course.
Here’s where the big powers get nervous because Isil, like al-Qa’ida before it, understands that the oilfields of Saudi Arabia are within striking distance, not from an invasion force from Iraq but from a locally recruited force. Remember, Saudi Arabia is the greatest source of jihadist fighters for Isil. Certain mosques in Saudi are the recruitment centres for Isil.
In 2006, al-Qa’ida was able to detonate a massive explosion just outside the Abqaiq refinery – the biggest in the world. In 2013 there was a three-day siege of Amenas gas facility in Algeria by Isil, which left 39 foreign workers dead. So we know that Isil regards oil targets as legitimate and a source of both propaganda and revenue. While Saudi fields are the richest, the main activity for Isil would still be in Iraq and what remains in Syria, where it controls territory and has its network.
Now here is where the economics becomes interesting.
Every time the price of oil falls further, it makes Isil move to capture oilfields more, not less, urgently. Isil came to prominence just when the price of oil was at its highest and, like the Scottish Nationalists and oil producers everywhere, the Isil treasury department was probably betting on oil staying above $100 a barrel.
While they have robbed banks in Mosul and other conquered towns and continue to extort money from the locals, the real on-going cash flow comes from oil. It is strange to talk about the treasury department of Isil but it is an organisation like any other – and all organisations need money. Isil’s monetary problem is that the value of its major trading commodity has fallen rapidly.
As a result, it has to re-run its budget numbers, forecast revenues and cost base. Now that the price of oil has fallen to levels that no one in the business thought possible, Isil has to get more oil just to maintain the same revenue. This need will push it further into oil-producing areas of Syria in the east, and will also force it to move westwards into Iraq. Such a proposition means that Isil will be attacking on two fronts to get its hands on new oil revenues. These attacks will weaken it militarily and this could be why the big powers have moved against it now.
The Russians know this game. They have fought many resource-poor enemies in the past. The Nazis ploughed deeper and deeper into Russia in search of what Himmler described as, “villages, peopled by German colonisers, reaping crops from the rich dark earth”. Hitler, himself with an eye on the oil fields of the Caucasus region and, knowing that Germany had no oil, declared in 1942, “If I do not get the oil of Maikop and Grozny, then I must end the war”.
Similarly today, Russia understands that Isil will be strangled without more oil as its price continues to fall. It also knows that if it defeats Isil, Russia will be top dog in the region, with both Assad and Iran – its allies – in a strong position.
Obviously the quid pro quo for a deal with Russia in Syria is that the West won’t worry too much about Ukraine. After all, Ukraine has no oil.
All in all, not a bad week at the office for Mr Putin.
Putin also knows that the Muslim in Chief is sympathetic to ISIS and will do anything to hollow out the American military and debase the United States. Putin will have the legacy of doing what America should have done long ago, wipe this slime out.
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Al-Qaida = the database .
Isis & isil = the database + few shiny toyotas
Article = horseshit prob not allowed say that “but it’s a direct quote from know my of Jordan “
Good article by Hitchens:
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2015/09/some-immediate-thoughts-on-the-new-crisis-in-syria-.html
Yadayada, she is not that keen on them anymore if she closed her border and used martin schulz to threaten eastern europe with force. Besides she knew the ukrainian refugees were genuine and that they would stay in the first country which offered them asylum – poland – and not go to germany (the so called syrians would mot even stay in denmark because sweden pays twice as much)
Basivally what I am trying to say is that the topic of the Ukrainian refugees did not even make it to the media because they dispersed themselves in the vastness of the Polish landscape finding illegal jobs or/and asylum. The reason the so called Syrian refugees who claim they lost their passports are so much in our face is because they clearly say they go to whatever country offers them more social welfare. Why Mrs. Merkel said that in first place that 800,000 should come (25,000 came to Munich alone a few days after) is puzzling indeed. Perhaps she hoped… Read more »
F..g smartphones :-) just wanted to point out that the most persecuted group among Syrians are Christians. Yet we do not see any Christians (displaying symbols, even thoufh the media fish so hard for women and kids amidst the hords of muscled bearded young males. We see instead Muslim symbols and devastated desacrated Catholic cemetary in Hungary, as showed in one Polish TV station (the rest is ad PC as RTE). So, considering they lost their passports (Eastern European refugees in the 80s had to undergo a year long scrutiny befire they were granted asylums). So how do we know… Read more »
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11903702/Russias-Vladimir-Putin-launches-strikes-in-Syria-on-Isil-to-US-anger-live-updates.html
http://twitter.com/mrjohncrowley/status/649494136853274624/photo/1
Trying to understand the complexity??
I wonder what the effect the inevitable failure of Isis’ Caliphate will have on the pseudo-religion Islam? After all, if Allah can not save his own Caliphate which he promises in the Koran, then will Muslims begin to question the authenticity of their belief system? My own analysis is that Islam is a dying ‘religion’ and that these jihadists are the last bark of an enfeebled dog, before it rolls over dead.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/interview-reveals-how-isis-funded-5546174
It would seem that our supposed allies in the middle East are complicit in funding ISIS. “An army marches on its stomach”, and as such ISIS has to fund support, feed, and maintain 8 million people, as well as fund its aggression. Very complex. Only ground forces will contain ISIS. Supporting Assad is a part of the solution it seems. http://www.newsweek.com/2014/11/14/how-does-isis-fund-its-reign-terror-282607.html “Grossing as much as $40 million or more over the past two years, ISIS has accepted funding from government or private sources in the oil-rich nations of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait—and a large network of private donors, including… Read more »
Why is the oil so cheap? I have heard different explanations, including US domestic shale investments. But they wouldn’t deliberately ruin ISIS’s income would they?
I remember watching BBC’s Newsnight during the so-called Arab Spring. A demonstration had been called in Saudi Arabia and only one man showed up. He gave a short interview to the BBC. The reporter saw the police following him home and he couldn’t contact him by phone the next day.
It’s hard to argue with that analysis David. Russia seems like the only interested party who are behaving like pragmatists. The US may have serious technology but the people in charge are like babies playing with a box of hand grenades. Some of the loony tune Jesus freaks on the US right wing are just as crazy as the crazies who want to do suicide bombings. If they’re all so keen to meet their maker why don’t they just get together and blow the fuck out of each other and leave the rest of us alone? What’s the exit strategy… Read more »
David, I have to somewhat disagree with your assessment of ISIL’s chances of acquiring major new oil assets. ISIL may be a bunch of murdering psychopaths, and a scourge on the populations of the territories they control, but there is a reason why they are in the areas they are. It is because of Sunni sympathisers, a bit like the way the IRA flourished in certain areas of Northern Ireland even though few people were explicit supporters. In Iraq, Sunnis have long resented the governments in Baghdad, from the post-invasion Coalition Provisional Authority to the majority Shia coalitions that succeeded… Read more »
worthy read as your on this topic
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-01/mid-east-coup-russia-pounds-militant-targets-iran-readies-ground-invasions-while-sau
Hi David, An excellent and thought provoking article. I know next to nothing about the region but having said that would like to add my two pence worth that I am not sure that the US and Russia are on the same side; http://www.mintpressnews.com/migrant-crisis-syria-war-fueled-by-competing-gas-pipelines/209294/ Your analysis of the Spanish need to invade everywhere after the gold credit collapse is most appropriate. Whether you are a Saudi Prince, a US Diplomat, Islamic militant, Israeli General, etc. etc. all are focused n two things; Secure the assets, Secure the route to market, and all because the worlds financial system and its derivatives… Read more »
David,
Sorry for annoying you the other day, but I am fed up with the BS coming from the Irish media on just about everything – particularly RTE.
And I was coming to the conclusion that you were going for housetraining like the rest.
Please understand – dissenting opinions are helpful.
One area that needs to be explored is the origins of ISIS and who secretly funds them. As the article states Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait and Turkey have all funded and helped train these mercenaries. Going further into the murky depths we find the US and Israel also involved in the funding and training of these viscous mercenaries. The one agenda binding all of these supporters is to remove the Assad regime by any means possible. The previous attempt to do this with the so called Free Syrian Army failed in 2012 because the staged gas attack, which was supposed to… Read more »
Here is an article giving the full details of the gas attack which was conclusively linked to the western sponsored mercenaries in an attempt to justify air strikes against the Assad regime.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-war-on-syria-obama-lied-when-he-said-this/5479088?utm_source=Global+Research+Newsletter&utm_campaign=0653493a94-Newsletter_01_10_1510_1_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0ec9ab057f-0653493a94-81252153&ct=t(Newsletter_01_10_1510_1_2015)&mc_cid=0653493a94&mc_eid=8b9a20ce53
Isis only came into existence after the absolute embarrassing loss of foreign policy when obama tried to get US into war with Syria. Result Obama well and truly outplayed by Vputin . Next along come IS the eternal boogieman the west needs in the Middle East to secure their interventionist foreign policy. To say that IS are this self funding terror behemoth miss appropriating the natural resources of the region and omitting McCain and rodders intimate relationship with ISIS is crazy. To starkly portray US and Israel as enemies of ISIS when in reality ISIS is an enema of them… Read more »
Mesmerised by Cooldudes link I posted acwrong link for ISIS switching dides. Can’t post it noe, but check the atlanticnews.com Everyone who talks about ISIS and the US without kniwing that 4 out 5 switched sides is at least a year behind I am afraid. It would be interesting to hear from Dave though how ISIS sells oil – and about thebrole if Turkey in this and in the refugee crisis. And thevimplications for the US Iran deal if Iran joins Russia in the anti- ISIS coalition. Especially in view of the fact that Mr. Netanyahu almost got blue in… Read more »
Russia:
Russian output hits post-Soviet high: The WSJ noted that Russia’s oil output in September rose to an average of 10.74M bpd, up 0.4% from August to levels not seen since the Soviet Union. It said the figures are the latest indication that Russia isn’t prepared to join OPEC in trimming production to prop up prices.
Posted at lemetropolecafe.com
http://usawatchdog.com/middle-east-chaos-war-clinton-email-woes-planned-parenthood-update/
Plenty of inaccuracies in this article. Iran is not an Arabic country and Russia’s entire southern border is certainly not Islamic. Since when are Ukraine, Mongolia, Kazakhstan and China Islamic?
Secret handshake. Perpetual War for perpetual Peace.
http://needtoknow.news/archives/2015-2/2015-10-02/
Iranian ground troops in Syria
http://ep.yimg.com/ty/cdn/realityzone/NTKiranSupportsRussiaSyria2015.html
Not much is said in the news about Saudi Arabia invading and Fighting in Yemen.
Tony Brogan I just don’t buy into the whole one world government top down theory. It can’t work anyway. I just think we live a highly complex world where for any number of reasons or inputs there are unpredictable asymmetries of outcome that can’t be mapped by grand theories or mathematical algorithims. Compute the following by changing the variables using the following formula. Inputs A + (D + BoC )+ So(O) + So(D) = Outcome GNO or PPNO Where A is your age,D is your date for the night,BoC is your beverage of choice So(O)is your sexual orientation and So(D)… Read more »
David, Where did you get the idea that ISIS needs cash? Long before they had seized any oil rich lands, ISIS trundled across Iraq in a fleet of white Toyota Pickups. Hundreds of thousands worth of vehicles. Thus they were already armed, equipped and trained before they ever turned a dollar in oil revenue into their accounts. This status did not suddenly descend on them from the firmament. It is widely reported that the United States, Israel and GCC actors have funded, armed and trained ISIS. It is known that Turkey has facilitated goods and oil commerce between ISIS and… Read more »
Maybe those that can’t handle the truth will diss CNN too http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-884508 This is what we in the West destroyed in Libya with lies, deceit, armaments, battleships and war planes. Are you proud? “”Here are some Facts you probably do not know about Libya under Muammar Gaddafi: • There was no electricity bills in Libya; electricity is free … for all its citizens. • There was no interest on loans, banks in Libya are state-owned and loans given to all its citizens at 0% interest by law. • If a Libyan is unable to find employment after graduation, the state… Read more »
Tony Brogan
The decision to remove Gadaffi was ill conceived which is another example of children playing with hand grenades. Libya might be a good example of how a top down system eventually implodes. When Citizens are micromanaged and every type of welfare is provided to all social classes look what happens when those structures are suddenly withdrawn.Compare it to Lebanon which has faced constant disruption for almost the last 45 years yet has well developed social structures and an extremely robust banking system which sailed through the 2008 crisis.
Tony Brogan
A 12 gauge for the quail then pan roast with bacon with buttered spuds and kale on the side.
Tomgram: William Astore, Groundhog Day in the War on Terror
http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/175950/tomgram%3A_william_astore,_groundhog_day_in_the_war_on_terror
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