Last week was a great week. I have employed a few people and intend to employ a few more every month if things go according to plan. Ireland is full of good people who just need the proverbial ‘start’.
There is always a great sense of excitement setting up a new venture, rolling up the sleeves, mucking in, negotiating and getting things done, particularly with new people who bring all sorts of interesting ideas and ways of doing things to the table.
In response to demand, my new venture will give independent economic advice to people, investors and companies that want clear, simple explanations about what is going on economically and financially, and how to plan their next moves.
We can all do more and more of this, because despite everything, the recovery will begin with us – each of us.
If you read this column regularly, you’ll probably be asking yourself why we aren’t talking about the ‘bitchfest’ between Irish economists which broke out in various guises last week. It’s rather pathetic really because, with one or two exceptions, last week’s more vocal protagonists didn’t see the bust coming.
They didn’t see the credit bubble or the housing madness.
Equally, when we spoke of default in this column two years ago, the Irish economic establishment (such as it is) was of the view that default couldn’t happen. Well now it’s here. This default or no default ‘debate’ is old news.
Telling people two years ago that there would be a default – because of the botched way the guarantee was deployed – gave you an opportunity to move your money out of here if you were worried; today it’s more or less a foregone conclusion.
But as this debate among academics – and others on the public payroll – rages, life goes on and the rest of us must make a crust.
We know that the macro economy will not be helpful for a few years. If you wait around, no one is going to save you.
There is no cavalry coming over the hill. If you want to make something happen in Ireland, you have to do it for yourself. And there has never been a better time to do this, despite the banks being broken and not operating as sources of credit for the vast majority.
This sounds counterintuitive, but bear with me.
There is lots of creative talent in Ireland and, while we are blessed in the traditional Irish area of writing and books, there are buckets of other talented people, who have the same creativity as our writers, the same yearning for self expression, the same love of risk and the same balls to try something new.
This is the New Ireland. Old Ireland is stuck in the old debate. Old Ireland is still afraid to fail. Old Ireland is caught up an a puerile debate about who is right and even more so, who is wrong.
Old Ireland is still caught up in pointless arguments about our national credibility. Listen lads: we blew our credibility years ago when you were peddlling the soft landing cant. We have none: that’s why the IMF is here.
But just because the IMF is here, it doesn’t mean the game is over. In fact, the reinvention of Ireland is only just beginning.
When this reinvention is over, the old guard will have been swept away and a New Ireland will emerge.
Hopefully, the New Ireland will be an Ireland that is not afraid of failure, not wrapped up with itself and its squabbles. Move on, bring on the default, start afresh and stop keeping old washed-out companies and ideas afloat.
With that in mind, let’s start with the idea of failure and the fact that failing, being wrong and trying again are part of the game.
Recently, venture capitalist Jon Moulton pointed out that the four European countries with the lowest rate of corporate failure were, in this order, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain and guess what,?
They are the countries in the same order who needed to be bailed out. It’s not only that we are reluctant to fail; we don’t fail fast enough.
Companies are kept alive long after they should be.
One of the lessons of working for yourself is that you learn to kill projects that are not working swiftly. If you don’t do this, if you hang on, you’ll probably lose more money. Better to cut, save your resources and start again anew.
The Irish banks are the best example of keeping bust entities open. It’s usually easier to do this with other people’s money. As well as the true cost, the opportunity cost of delay can be huge. The more you occupy yourself in keeping something alive, the more you miss the new trends, the new opportunities.
One of those mega trends right now worldwide is the exploding gaming industry. Look around.
The other night while finishing Paul Murray’s thought-provoking Skippy Dies, it struck me that one of the many reasons that Murray’s suburban character Skippy Juster is so believable is that he plays these games constantly, like any other 14-year-old.This is the market and it is exploding everywhere.
The gaming industry this year passed the $50 billion mark.
This makes the games industry bigger than the movie industry, the DVD market or the music business. The online part of this is exploding rapidly. Companies like Zynga, makers of games like Farmville and Cityville – both played on Facebook – have emerged from nowhere.
Zynga is projected to have revenues of $1 billion this year – that’s revenues and not some notional value.
Three years ago, Zynga didn’t exist. The online gaming business was worth $18 billion last year and is growing at a rate of 16 per cent per annum.
One of the fascinating stories emerging beneath the fog of the macro-economic war is that Ireland is rapidly emerging as Europe’s hub for the online gaming industry. Companies like Zynga have made Ireland their base. The reason they are here is because the other big companies are here.
With Google, Facebook, eBay, Blizzard, Popcap here, a cluster is emerging and it’s crucial we nurture this and the creative people working in this emerging business. For example, the blockbuster game of last year was Call of Duty.
The technology behind its online version linking millions of users together was designed here in Dublin by a company called Demonware.
We should tell the world about this success and get more of them to set up here. Give them free office space.
Now that we own the banks and the banks own the offices, why not? For example, if the Central Bank moves out of Dame Street as suggested, give this glorious space away for free to a start-up.
Imagine a hub right in the centre of the city. In fact, few things might symbolise the reinvention of Ireland better than moving a shell-shocked institution and replacing it with confident vibrancy.
Dylan Collins – a man who has sold two gaming companies in his short, very successful career – noted something instructive about China recently.
He reported that any ‘‘Chinese town with 300,000 residents will often have up to 500 people dedicated to soliciting inward investment. That’s about 0.2 per cent of their population dedicated to inward investment.”
We could do the same thing, deploying agitators, persuaders and champions to get more and more of the gaming business here.
This is the way we will begin the process of recovery. Obviously we have to default to start again. Anyone who knows anything knows that a balance sheet with too much debt can only be solved by less debt, not more debt.
But we can’t wait for that, because the world is moving on. So let’s move with it.
Great stuff David! Let the games begin.
Our schools
Hi David
Brilliant article and very true. It comes down to us each as an individual and it is important to see that we have shoots of regrowth and new possibilities from all the dung of the economic mess.
But isn’t gambling simply part of the puffery and nonsense that got us here, David?
Good article. It’s really a case of how past successes have limited future success. Ireland’s institutions were successful for enough of the population to keep it alive up until now. There are many examples of this kind of phenomenon. Oil and internal combustion engines worked together to stop development of electric vehicles. You might say Microsoft’s success in the office applications and traditonal computer environment may limit it from gaining a proper foothold in cloud computing and mobile devices. There a lot of things failing at a global level out there and that means lots of opportunity. But make no… Read more »
Great article but I wouldn’t be as optimistic David about the old guard being swept away any time soon in this country. This old guard is the same collection of “insiders” that you have rightly been pointing at for the last ten years, and they don’t seem to be to be going anywhere in a hurry. What we have in this country in relation to job creation and entrepreneurship, is a classic glass ceiling. You could have the idea, you might even have a talent at software so you could have the idea fully developed, hosted, online and ready for… Read more »
Might want to watch out for internet gambling, while computer games in large part are very violent and do nothing for the social development of children. They can be quite addictive, while some even have reportedly led to epileptic attacks (games with rapidly changing images or highly regular patterns can produce seizures), there is also some debate whether they can be mood altering. U.S. Government Shuts Down 3 Biggest Online Gambling Sites http://mashable.com/2011/04/16/online-poker/ Far from the old guard being swept away (I accept it is merely phase II with a new government), seems like the same old practices: TD in… Read more »
I believe the plan is to make the Central Bank in Dame Street a language school/teacher training center and a lot of other important buildings around the country too.
http://potatopals.blogspot.com/2011/05/few-remaining-questions-we-can-still.html
Posted a comment, didn’t appear, trying again, points in summary:
Watch out for internet gambling:
Online poker sites shut down and charged with fraud in US crackdown
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/8456290/Online-poker-sites-shut-down-and-charged-with-fraud-in-US-crackdown.html
Computer games are largely violent, can have a desensitizing effect, possibly harm social development of children (perfer to see them playing in the garden with a soccer ball) and reportedly can lead to epileptic attacks, not sure it is the way to go.
As for the old guard being swept away:
TD in row over hiring wife gives job to someone else
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/td-in-row-over-hiring-wife-gives-job-to-someone-else-2647951.html
Change will happen, when the younger Ireland starts to compete with the older establishment Ireland. We had a decade where the younger Ireland merely ran in a lemming rush to subsidize and profit the older establishment Ireland. But a lot of that money is salted away. There is a lot of it in the Isle of Man. And it has the habit of showing up when it is not wanted. The Chinese, well, at least those in the Cantonese speaking areas, definitely mean true business. The establishment here is still engaging in pretence, deceit, market rigging and hard sell efforts… Read more »
The future is 20 year olds sitting up all night thinking of great ideas, reading, learning, applyign themselves. We need to give the future a chance, by breaking up the rotten networks that control Ireland. Ah, but hold on. didn’t those rotten networks bankrupt tehmselves, and break themselves up. They did, but Lenihan and the EU bailed them out. Capitalist consequences, to capitalist failure could have freed us. But instead we were told to save our reputation. Throw out our reputation, because it really is a pile of useless manure. Forget pride, seek humility. Then we will see everything better.… Read more »
David mentions that we should be trying to get more entrepreneurial types to come here. Well, from what I can see of the history of Ireland, especially since the early 1970s, we have been driving such people away. We are losing people we should be keeping, and keeping people we should be losing is a refrain you hear in certain organizations in Ireland, in reference to the affects of cronyism. Aggregate that and you get the national picture, of how talent is treated here. PR budgets are now use, considering the flawed concept of management that is rampant in Ireland.… Read more »
Good Morning, and wow…. :) Wishing you, Ronan, Stephen and Lorcan all the very best with your new venture! You say: When this reinvention is over, the old guard will have been swept away and a New Ireland will emerge. First, In this context, a general book recommendation for everyone here: http://europe.stanford.edu/publications/social_banking_and_social_finance_answers_to_the_economic_crisis/ Written by Roland Benedikter, perhaps better known as Ulrich von Weizaecker’s co-author in the 2003 Report to the Club of Rome. Highly recommended. This old guard that you hope will be swept away, I would disagree here profoundly, but lets look at it from a distance, so we… Read more »
Good luck, David. Like you said, there’s no use waiting for somebody else to do it. Thanks for sharing your expertise.
@Deco, Change isn’t happening Deco. The same Local Branch and Relationship Manager’s in the main banks who were completely complicit in the property scam, are now telling people trying to start up small businesses that they are not worthy of support. You can have all the idea’s and abilities in the world, if you do not have access to seed capital, even a very small amount, then you are at f*ck all, that’s what I’ve found out the hard way last week. You have Branch and relationship Manager’s on only Jasus know’s what salaries in the main banks, backed up… Read more »
There is a strong case for having the Central Bank, and the Regulators at a location well away from Dublin City, Kildare Wicklow and any lcoations with large golf courses. Basically, they should see as little as possible of the people running the banks – physically speaking. As a means of preventing them from getting two close. Preferably outside of Leinster, and outside of any city with more than 50,000 people. There are a lot of people employed by the CBoI, IFRSA, etc.. no idea what exactly they are doing. And the ESRI should be banished to the Blasket Islands… Read more »
Sorry for the two in quick succession, the one above this here was just a spontaneous quick response to David’s article. this here is my original article contribution from the weekend: The Frankfurt School… or Angela Thatcher Juergen Habermas studied philosophy and sociology under Max Horkheimer and Theodor Wiesengrund von Adorno, the so called Frankfurt school, Adorno I was tortured with on several occasions due to my studies of Music, and if you ever should desire to read Adorno, a good collection of Greek and Latin dictionaries is as important as a healthy dose of whatever your preference of ‘poisonous… Read more »
@Deco, this is what drives me f*cking nuts when I read it on this forum and when David starts up about the Diaspora. There are plenty of people here who are minded to start up businesses, we don’t need to import entrepreneurship, we have it here in absolute abundance. What we also have is a policy of keeping these people down, of actively frustrating any hope that they may convert a business concept into a business reality. We don’t need our 2nd cousins from down under or Aunt Mary’s sister in Manhattan to come over here and do the heavy… Read more »
Best of luck with the economics clinic. A really good idea.
Can we get a free voucher for Dan McLaughlin to send him along ? (sneer remark)
subscribe.
@Deco, David is absolutely onto something here, but the key to getting some seriousness behind it is getting very minimal seed capital matched up with the folks with the business ideas and concepts, and keeping the likes of AIB/BOI personnel from headquarters down to branch level completely out of the loop, and the same can be said for any public sector paper pushers such as the County Enterprise Boards, FAS, etc. All these organisations and those that work there are in the business of one thing and one thing only and that is self survivial. They will say anything and… Read more »
I think a Politician has died
First and foremost I hope everything goes well with your new venture. Now,let’s get down to the nub of the issue. Why hasn’t anybody come up with the idea of starting up a Peoples Bank? David, didn’t you work for different banks throughout Europe as well as our own Central Bank.Wouldn’t it be a good idea to get some like minded bankers who are sick and tired of what’s been going on to get together with yourself and others and start up a bank that will work for the benefit of the type of entrepreneurs you’re talking about? It’s just… Read more »
@ladygee2 A brilliant idea, the sooner we start taking back ownership of job creation and keeping those that oppose and obstruct job creation through the witholding of seed capital, completely out of the loop, the sooner I think we will start the process of recovery.
In the boom times, the banks were throwing money at the wrong people, now they are witholding it from the right people, you couldn’t make it up, a new bank with new people with the right economic agenda is the only way forward.
David, Great article and best of luck in your new business venture. Indeed, businesses, investors and citizens are in great need of independent economic advice that is simple but yet takes full account of all the complexities that exists in the global economic environment. I agree that our own futures are in each of our hands and by being proactive and taking responsibility we can help ourselves and those around us face the challenges ahead and eventually overcome them. The best way of getting the better of the nay-sayers and the insiders is by ignoring them. Get enough like-minded people… Read more »
Interesting parallel with Korea. http://www.economist.com/node/18682342?story_id=18682342&fsrc=scn/tw/te/rss/pe
We need to cultivate ambition.
Dear David, “When this reinvention is over, the old guard will have been swept away and a New Ireland will emerge.” As a regular reader of this column, and a more regular observer of the situation around us, I can’t see this. For a reinvention to be over it must first start. For the old guard to be swept away there must start a sweeping motion. For an emergence to occur there must begin a Genesis. I am not known to friends and family as a pessimist; and rather the reverse. But where must I look to see this dawning?… Read more »
The county enterprise boards haven’t got two brass farthings to rub together. I was told that by one of their representatives after forking out EUR 30 to attend an utterly useless seminar.
The fees taken taken in by the seminars are simply used to keep their employees in a job.
Many of the credit unions are in deep shit also.
Praetorian: They didn’t have computer games when Seanie Fitz was a youngster. but there was a game called Monopoly. I’ll bet it didn’t take him long to figure out that the way to win was to put hotels in Park Lane and Mayfair, rather than plonk socially responsible housing in Whitechapel and the Old Kent Road. My point is that whilst many of us were brought up to consider greed reprehensible, those with a stronger commercial instinct grow up to become bankers and developers. The seed of greed are the desire to dominate, and that is reinforced by games like… Read more »
David,
Best wishes and every success on your new venture. And if Dan McLaughlin or Austin Hughes decide to hire your services, I’m sure you’ll enable them to finally see the light.
I’m not at all interested in gaming, so I don’t know how important the industry can be to Ireland, but I suppose you gotta ‘follow the money’.
I think the Gaming Industry mostly programs kids to be morons & grow up as moron adults.
Its the exact opposite of sociology education.
Companies may make big proffits from it & adults may get a wage from working in it, but Video/internet Gaming is just a few steps behind the porn industry in making the world a poorer & less caring place.
Just wondering. Will the next head of the IMF come from Asia. Maybe our old acquantance ‘Ajay’ might get the nod.
Mary McAleese (or McUseless as Deco correctly puts it) is now on the Nine O’Clock News pontificating about the visit of The Queen.
Not a peep was heard out of her when she was signing documents left, right and centre to send this country up the swanny without a paddle.
In fact this is the first time I have even HEARD her voice in the year I have been back Ireland!
You can be damn sure The Queen would have stood up for her country had she been in the same position.
McUseless; what a despicable, spineless twat.
Good luck with the business David!
This site is fantastic for focusing on the truth. The real truth – not the media truth! Late last night I went to skynews.com to see their top story was about how yesterday Israeli soldiers had shot and killed at least 8 unarmed demonstrators in Gaza and Golan Heights. Today the story was gone???? Imagine that? Gone? Disappeared? Vamus? Strange huh? Of course they were only Palestinian lives? Only Arab lives? I worked in The Lebanon in the 80’s and I have always wondered why Apartheid was a word reserved for South Africa when anyone with eyes in their head… Read more »
David “We should tell the world about this success and get more of them to set up here. Give them free office space.” David in spite of all your ability of seeing through the fog and being proved right on a number of occasions you still suffer from the same disease that is the scourge of our country ie ” we must attrack foreign industry here beacuse realistically we cant do it by ourselves and we need foreign help We are only a small country ” That is a load of bollox. It is time to stop attracting foreign industry… Read more »
Just watched ‘What have the Brits ever done for us’, enjoyable to watch as light entertainment. It occured to me though that if one wants to see the true nature of the colonial Britain of today just look at the rape & pillage of Iraq, Afghanistan on the lies of weapons of mass distruction, as well as the bombing of Pakistan & Libya on the fabrication of the ‘war on terror’ etc. Over 100 thousand Iraqi people murdered by the invaders & heaps of villages destroyed, (another Vietnam). Look how quick they turned on Gadaffi who who had until recently… Read more »
Just read the frightning article below. I think its now time to take out any savings from Irish bank accounts or credit unions if we havn’t already done so incase Ireland goes down the same route that Argentina did!
http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/what-would-happen-to-your-money-if-ireland-defaulted-2647568.html
Good article and all the very best with the new venture You have a spirit that refuses to be beaten and this is what shines through in your writing. You can always tell a McWilliams piece even before you glance at the author tag This kind of spirit acts as a motivator for myself and many of your readers. Some of us feel like we are on our knees and those without the stomach for this brutal life are committing suicide Every word uttered in this snug should be considered carefully for it has the power to make or break… Read more »
Morning,
Thanks as always for the comments. I am over in London at this http://www.zeitgeistminds.com conference. I have just listened to an most extraordinary speech given by Benjamin Zander – conductor of the boston philharmonic. I have been to a few of these type of events, but this man is really special.
Just a thought,
All the best
David
I missed the economists bitchfest. Must have been conducted in the IT? Certainly there was practically no talk 2 years ago about default (I mentioned it here a couple of times re irisheonomy). I suppose in some cases they would say it was because they didn’t want to bring about something by talking about it, although that doesn’t really convince me. I was thinking myself about all the money made out of gaming as I’ve forked out loads in the last 18 mths for Jnr in that area. Yes, it’s all Call of Duty now. I told him I wouldn’t… Read more »
Good to hear some positive news about ‘new Ireland’. I think that its very important to learn from the realestate speculative boom and bust and bring in new legislation on realestate. I imagine a new Ireland where peoples rent and/or mortage payments make up less than 25% of their nett income and average property prices are about 3.5 times the average yearly wage. People who may remember me saying this here before. How about taking a leaf from Shanghai’s books. When I was there in 2009 the government were actually genuinly concerned about the 20-35 age group and getting them… Read more »
The dogmatic and transfixed quasi religious fanatic faith in established economic schools, Markets know best,or…. The Muasher doctrine Summary: The final words from Noam Chomsky’s Lecture in Amsterdam, Contours of global order: Domination, Stability and Security in a changing world, from March 2011 need to be repeated; As long as the Muasher doctrine prevails, as long as the general population is passive, apathetic, diverted to consumerism or hatred of the vulnerable, then the powerful can do as they please, and those who survive can contemplate the outcome. x x x x Joseph Stieglitz pointed to the transfixed religious belief in… Read more »
On the Zeitgeist Panel discussion, the 30 minutes snippet that I saw from Malcolm’s link is very tempting comment on in some detail, however, it is next to impossible without falling into a trap if one can not see the whole discussion.
Is there a video of the full session available?
I was very pleased to hear David’s remark on ….ODIOUS DEBTS!
Sweden stands up to insist that banks throughout Europe no longer be bailed out by taxpayers. Yeah Sweden! Years ago Sweden made its irresponsible banks go into receivership/bankruptcy and their banking system is now strong and responsible. This example needs to be followed throughout Europe. But it will never be followed in the USA because the banks are too politically powerful.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-16/sweden-wants-bail-in-model-to-target-senior-bank-creditors.html
I do not know why Ireland, along with Britain, does not seek to join a Scandinavian Union rather than the EU, with each country retaining its own currency.
On a cynical funny side note, lets start a rumor….
Sarkozy’s revenge….Carla Bruni is pregnant…. it was DSK…. go figure.
;)
Today the Queen gets a tour of Dublin from atop the Guinness Store House from Ryan Tubridy.
Ryan Tubridy??????
When did he join the Diplomatic Corps?
Talk about “The Clique”
Will a TV3 presenter get within 10 feet of her? Er No!
Anyway I can imagine the conversation;
Tubridy; “So Ma’am I’ll be working down the road from you during the summer and you can listen in?”
Herself; “So you’re replacing Norton for a few weeks?”
Tubridy; “Yes Ma’am”
(She sniggers and hits him with her handbag)
Herself; “Oh that’s hilarious because in ones house we call him “The Queen”!!!
@CitizenWhy, Re “do not know why Ireland, along with Britain, does not seek to join a Scandinavian Union rather than the EU, with each country retaining its own currency.” I don’t know whether the Scandinavian countries would be interested, but we certainly should. The Brits were right about Europe, it has fundamental flaws that helped bankrupt us. The experiment was tried and failed, time to move on. I presume you would see it operating along the lines of the British Commonwealth of Nations http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations Thanks Malcolm re link to DmcW Zeitgeist video. Unlike you, I wasn’t at all impressed by… Read more »
Check the FT/Global Economy:
World Bank sees end to dollar’s hegemony
Interesting, essentially a US bank, the Worldbank anticipates the end of the $ as global key currency unto 2025.
Need to freshen up my mandarin.LOL
Oh my God….Merkel’s Freudian slip!
“Of course we want the euro and of course we don’t want to see that a country goes broke, so to speak, and that we all then follow,” she said.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,763294,00.html