On Monday, following Hillary Clinton’s pneumonia diagnosis, the bookies dramatically cut the odds that Donald Trump will be the next president of the US. Years ago, Bill Clinton said it was all about “the economy stupid”. But is it this time? If so, let’s have a look at Trump’s economics.
Trump’s economics make absolutely no sense, have no coherence and will lead to a massive American budget deficit.
Trumponomics is Reaganomics without the subtlety. Despite being vilified as a lightweight by heavyweight economists, Reagan’s time is remembered as a time of prosperity in the US. Having economists as your cheer-leaders can be political suicide: just ask David Cameron. Reagan, the two-term president, was also responsible for the ‘Reagan Democrats’. These were traditional Democrats who voted Republican in support of Reagan’s vision for America. Could there be hidden ‘Trump Democrats’ out there?
This time around, people don’t seem to care for the views of experts; Trumponomics may be incoherent, divisive and inconsistent, but will anyone care on election day?
In terms of details, Trump seems to break his economic plan down to four categories he plans to reform: trade reform, tax reform, energy reform and regulatory reform.
Bear in mind that, when fact-checked, the vast majority of what he’s claiming about current economic conditions are false. But people don’t seem to care, and he keeps going up in the polls.
His trade reform ideas are based on a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics and trade. He’s assuming trade deficits are synonymous with job losses. They are not. (For example, the UK has the highest trade deficit in Europe but one of the lowest rates of unemployment.) However, on the stump, bashing foreigners plays well and so he argues that it’s China’s fault that America has a trade deficit with China but everybody knows this is not the case.
He wants to appoint trade negotiators whose goals will be to “win for America”, narrow the trade deficit, increase domestic production, and get a fair deal for workers. He has no affiliation: he wants to renegotiate NAFTA, which corporate America would hate; and he wants to withdraw from the TPP, which the left would love!
Internationally, he terms China “a currency manipulator” but at the same time, he also wants to apply tariffs and duties to countries that “cheat”. Could this be a reference to low-tax Ireland, post-Apple?
Here’s what he has to say on globalisation: “Our politicians have aggressively pursued a policy of globalisation — moving our jobs, our wealth and our factories to Mexico and overseas.”
Here he is on China, underscoring his willingness to use economic policy as a threat: “The 45pc tariff is a threat. It was not a tax, it was a threat. It will be a tax if they don’t behave. Take China as an example. I have many friends, great manufacturers, they want to go into China. They can’t. China won’t let them. We talk about free trade. It’s not true free trade; it’s stupid trade.”
So he believes in free trade, but only when it suits America.
When it comes to personal taxes, Trump is just Reagan with terrible hair. His platform is lower taxes for everyone, making raising a family more affordable for working families. With an eye on young families, he wants to exclude childcare expenses from taxation.
Critically for Ireland, he wants to limit taxation of business income to 15pc for every business.
“Under my plan, no American company will pay more than 15pc of their business income in taxes. Small businesses will benefit the most from this plan,” he said.
On tax inversions and using tax loopholes to attract US companies, he has stated: “Our lower business tax will also end job-killing corporate inversions, and cause trillions in new dollars and wealth to come pouring into our country.”
As for energy reform, Trump’s policy is a drillers’ charter. He aims to cancel the Paris Climate Agreement (to limit global warming to 2C) and stop all payments of US tax dollars to UN global warming programmes.
His views on regulation are pure, textbook Reagan. Is it any wonder the US public sector is staunchly Democrat when Trump intends to “remove bureaucrats who only know how to kill jobs [and] replace them with experts who know how to create jobs”?
“I will have one overriding goal when it comes to regulation: I want to keep jobs and wealth in America.” He sees the dead hand of regulation everywhere, including the banks, when even most of the right wing accept that the 2008 crash was caused by too little regulation in the banking sector.
“The banks aren’t loaning money to people that need it . . . The regulators are running the banks,” he said.
In classic Trump style, he claims not to believe the figures on unemployment. He has stated that the 5pc unemployment rate is “one of the biggest hoaxes in American politics.”
He is going to solve all this by a “trillion-dollar rebuilding programme” to patch up roads, airports, bridges, water systems and the power grid.
When questioned on how all this will be paid for, Trump has moved from saying he would repay the US national debt in its entirety to arguing he would spend $500bn on infrastructure, suggesting that ultimately the US can always default on its borrowing.
“I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal.
“The interest rates are so low?… this is the time to borrow and to borrow long-term. We can have the money and rebuild our infrastructure.”
“I am the king of debt. I do love debt… I love playing with it.
“We can buy back government debt at a discount, in other words, if interest rates go up . . . we can buy bonds back at a discount”
So he says he is going to borrow, but then when you look at his website, it still claims that he intends to eliminate the $19trn national debt burden. Maybe he intends to repay it by defaulting on everything á la Communist Russia in 1919. Remember, Trump has defaulted a number of times himself when he has gone personally bankrupt. So he has form.
He has a personal view of the Federal Reserve and its independent head Janet Yellen. Everything Yellen says is of enormous consequence to the financial markets which in the past two days have been extremely volatile. But here’s what The Donald had to say about her on Monday: “She’s keeping [rates] artificially low to get Obama retired. Watch what is going to happen afterwards. It is a very serious problem. And I think it is very political. I think she is very political and to a certain extent, I think she should be ashamed of herself.”
So it’s anyone’s guess what his economics mean. He holds no position on anything and his views change depending on who he is talking to. None of this makes much sense, but no one seems to care because he has turned the election into a reality TV show. Simply being on camera may be enough.
He is going to be our next President. No more ass licking of other Govts that hate Americans. It will be sweet. Get used to President Trump. 8 years to go.
@SMOKEY: I’m not a Trump fan but, I fear you could be right (wing?!)
His views on interest rates are the most amusing of all
1. “Low rates BAD”
2. “You’re punishing savers”
3. “But we need to service the debt”
4. Low rates GOOD”!
Every election for the past thirty has become a Television spectacle. That is very unfortunate. Because Televsion, and the culture of soundbites, and depiction of pretence as reality, degrades a ver important matter. It is manufactured pretence and distortion. Before the youtube video went viral, the television stations in the US were denouncing anybody who asked questions about Hillary Clinton’s health, as being guilty participants in a “vast right wing conspiracy”. When the video went live, it became apparent that there were strong grounds for scepticism. There is something seriously wrong with the “system” in the US, when the media… Read more »
We have been given depictions of Trump in power, which are versions of Doomsday. The whole thing is BS. Nobody knows. Here is one Trump idea. The J1 visas will end. Young people with nice suburban addresses will not be spending the summer in the US, working in bars and restaurants. They will not be going to the US to jobs that they leave for Lithuanians, northsiders and midlanders, at home. Trump wants those jobs to go for young American students that cannot afford college (which in the US is not propped up by the taxpayer). And poor Americans on… Read more »
While the so called experts say Trump talks a lot of nonsense, those who have been shafted by the current economic system don’t consider it nonsense at all. Neoliberalism/globalisation/monetarism have not only done nothing for the majority in the developed world, their life style has been destroyed. All those movements in England, France, Italy, Spain, Greece aren’t complaining about nothing. Even here in New Zealand where we are told everything is fine, very few young people can afford a house. Wages haven’t increased much in years – the attack on the unions in the 1980/1990s ensured that. We have terrible… Read more »
Question – when is the last time any US Presidential candidate ever produced an economic theory that stands up, and makes sense ? Maybe JKF ? Every one since has been promising stuff that does not make sense. And the media seems to let them away with it much of the time. Most of them will not talk about ugly words like “debt”, “productivity”, “societal costs”. Merchantilism is active in today’s world. Merkel is at it in Germany. With Schroeder you always knew that there was a willingness to prop up weaker countries. Merkel blew that in the water with… Read more »
A contest between 3 awful main contenders — Trump, Hillary Clinton, & yes the awful Sanders too — is now reduced to being a contest between 2 awful contenders ;
Trump versus Hillary Clinton.
.
If Trump wins, how soon will his Joker — of Batman comic & movie fame — character be mirrored by a pretender to the job of Taoiseach ?
Frances Fitzgerald seems to be modelling her deportment style on Hillary Clinton.
Hints that “The London School of Economics” educated [ “trained” ? 8-) ] Frances is being earmarked to be leader of the Blueshirts ;
Not the “unofficial” Blueshirts ; Fianna Fail.
But, the “official” Bluehirts ; Fine Gael.
.
The London School of Econmics, The London School of Economics, The London Sch…, …, THE SCHOOL FOR “CITY OF LONDON” SPIES !
.
Wake up fellow Bloggers !
Don’t be thick Paddies !
.
Keep an eye on Frances !
The Irish institutional state had a plan for Brexit – and it turned out to be a PR stunt that promised a stab in the back at our main trading partner. When they got the result that they were not expecting, they were gobsmacked. Clowns like Charlie Flanagan were seen holding a stupid expression on their face. Even more embarrassing, their “plan” was undermined by the inability of the Irish institutional state to provide higher density residential accomodation in Dublin, and transport sector incompetence. There was actually a phsycial limit the competitiveness of Dublin. And they did not know how… Read more »
Just to take the global warming bit first, here is an interesting talk by journalist and writer Christopher Booker about the EU and AGM: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YkXGALqSoo For about 4 mins after 11.00 mins he elaborates a little on his own (I think) theory of the cycle of fantasies: dream stage, frustration stage, nightmare, death-wish and fading into reality stages. In his excellent book The Great Climate Disaster he says that he decided to study this mass delusion after writing a long chapter about it with his colleague Richard North in an earlier book about mass scares. He is perfectly right and… Read more »
I don’t see what else is so wrong about Trump’s policies and I ask myself (though I think I already know the answer) why David feels he has to dismiss them. In some cases Trump surely exhibits the same pragmatism that David himself supports in other circumstances (‘When the facts change I change my mind’ etc). Is Trump’s platform any less superficial than Clinton’s? Hers is based on keeping the show on the road using smoke and mirrors (see Kunstler), in other words on keeping the fantasy alive. Again, why does David feel compelled to write this? It’s like this… Read more »
Trump is all over the place.
Being multi locational is a very handy trick to have up your sleeve.
Trumponomics is not the problem. Oglonomics is the problem. It is Ireland’s upcoping economics. It is Bertonomics without being subtle. Brendan Ogle, and the economics of demand and you get, work and you will give to those that demand. It is about extractive behaviour under the pretence of “fairness”. It is fundamentally about being as aggressive as possible with a long list of cliches based on the anchor of cliches “fairness”. With regard to “fairness” – can we have more than one choice in respect to bus transport in the Dublin urban area ? I don’t think the current monopoly… Read more »
Thankfully, as we move deeper into a multi-polar world, what the crazies in America get up to recedes in importance. ‘Trump’s economics make absolutely no sense, have no coherence and will lead to a massive American budget deficit.’ So what? The American debt is already a ‘supermassive black hole’ and that’s as a direct result of 4 decades of ‘expert opinion’ and ‘advice’ from Neo-Liberal economists. Reagan’s ‘morning in America’ prosperity was just the sound of the Debt Disguised as Credit economy revving up. Under Bush and O’Bama it’s reached war-factor speed. Why on earth would it matter if Trump… Read more »
“Bear in mind that, when fact-checked, the vast majority of what he’s claiming about current economic conditions are false. But people don’t seem to care, and he keeps going up in the polls.” It depends where you get your facts from, David. IMO, where you get your facts from are all lies. Government statistics are manipulated. Everyone knows the cost of living goes up at 3 times the basic rate stated by government. People know that they cannot make ends meet. People know what their personal positions are and it is getting worse. Trump reflects what the people are feeling… Read more »
Next week we will witness a collapse of the global financial system. Now when I got your attention, I have to admit that I do not have the slightest idea when we will witness it [although the date of Sep 30 might be interesting, as including the yuan into SDR’s with the post G-20 possibility of issuing bonds in SDRs opens the Pandora’s Box of, on the one hand, making FED decline in significance – I now think that contrary to possibly all and sundry, if FED is faced with the alternative: let the banks go or let the dollar… Read more »
nearly 800 a month = nearly 800 a week of course. I looked at their website and they took it off, but they had two tiers of earnings (that is recession times I’m taling about! – you know, a few thousand of applications to work in Lidl for 8.65 in the first 3 days from all over Ireland = it was 800 for full time work and well over a monkey for f…k all hours of work.
COMEY’S HERRING
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlxQIAQ7Q7I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW0zdHE2lyI
Will there be an election at all is a question being asked more and more by the perceptive. Clinton is sick. That is, she is unwell, as well as being psychotic. That being the case it must be known by her backers and handlers. Do they expect her illness to be common knowledge before or after the election. It is becoming apparent in the alternate media and obscured by the MSM. Here is a plan. You want to control the world. You need to create the right conditions for takeover. You have a nominee for the POTUS. You know she… Read more »
Brexit – the amatuers in Kildare Street got found out.
The GDP increase that was nonsense, and that results in Ireland increasing it’s contribution to the largesse in Brussels – it happened again.
Apple – it happened again.
And the same will happen for Trump.
It is not merely that they have given up on sovereignty.
They have given up in responsibility, also.
It is time to say that I respect David for having the courage to put his writings, facts, figures and opinions available for dissection on the blog.
I respect the ability, for the extension, of freedom of speech on the blog.
I respect the ability to agree to disagree.
Respectfully
TB
The media and the bus strike.
The minister doesn’t want to get involved.
The unions want the minister to get involved.
The minister wants the management to get involved.
The media says the minister should get involved.
The minister is a politician, he’s not part of Dublin Bus management.
The minister should tell the media to stop interfering in the negotiating process.
Will he tho?
What would Trump do?
What would Hillary do?
Some solid economic commentary
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/tuesday-was-a-warm-up-the-real-brainard-bloodbath-beckons/
https://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/09/15/another-billionaire-warns-catastrophic-depths-not-seen-5000-years-emphasizes-gold.html Trump is informed about the real economy unlike others around here. “What he and those who agreed with his stance don’t know, or at least won’t state publicly, is that these shoddy central bank policies are detrimental by design. In other words, their sole purpose is to destabilize the world economy. This deliberate market sabotage is necessary for the transference of power from the more developed nations to less developed ones. Ultimately, the idea is to eliminate smaller regional and national central banks. Once things get bad enough, these smaller banks will be blamed for provoking a given crisis.… Read more »
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/someone-dumped-70-tons-of-paper-gold-at-830-a-m/
“”There’s probably nothing to see in that chart above – just like the allegations of Hillary’s poor health…””
You are doing the job of the MSM and the elites by painting Trump as the cause of the coming financial catastrophe. First the headline ‘Trumponomics’ would mean a hair-raising ride for US economy And then the commentary for example “”Trump’s economics make absolutely no sense, have no coherence and will lead to a massive American budget deficit.”” is designed to blame Trump for the hideous economic structure that the central banks and governments have engineered. Have you not noticed there is already a massive budget deficit? Have you not noticed the national debt is 18 trillion or more up… Read more »
Trumpenomics means the end of Perpetual Pyrrhic Peace. Kant. Juncker. Cameron. Merkel. May. And Vladimir Putin….! I’ve been wearing a TeamGB Olympic jacket here in Vilnius, so I guess it’s unsurprising that people approach me to discuss Brexit. What’s really surprising is the sophistication of the bar-room debate which leads me to ponder my views in my hotel room & did deeper, leading to excellent meta-narrative overviews such as this article, which pretty much sums up my position-statement for why the EU is delusional as it posits a fizzy drink advert “I’d like to teach the world to sing” banalities… Read more »
To be hnoest, I don’t think anybody really thinks Trump will restore the societal health of the US. He might. And he might be taken apart by people wealthier than he is.
But, one thing is certain – Hillary Clinton, will only make matters worse.
The US Federal Deficit has doubled under Obama. In terms of scale, it is the largest thing that he has done.
He is the Louis XV of his country, in terms of finance, with Bill Clinton as the Louis XV in terms of extra-curricular activities.
1st Barrack Hosein Obama & Michele — Michael — Obama . Barrack Obama is homosexual ; Evidence is overwhelming ; And, “Michelle” Obama is really a “Michael” — i.e. a man — according to even Joan Rivers ; And, Joan Rivers used to officiate “gay weddings” even. . Google.com search terms : . joan rivers AND obama . https://www.google.co.th/?gws_rd=cr&ei=4vvbV_y0OILd0ATt46TwBw#q=joan+rivers+AND+obama . . The long-running favorite for 2nd Hillary Bonham Clinton . Hillary Clinton is lesbian ; Bill Clinton said so a number of times ; And, so does Monarch Brain-Programming victim Cathy O’Brien. . . So, the question remains ; .… Read more »
http://investmentwatchblog.com/janet-yellens-shame/ “”On Monday, for example, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said Fed chief Janet Yellen should be ashamed of herself for what she was doing to Americans and for creating a “false stock market.” The financial press was quick to condemn Mr. Trump for “undermining confidence” in the Fed and the stock market. It was “irresponsible” to question the Fed’s integrity and its non-partisan mission, said the pundits. Widely dismissed was the idea that Ms. Yellen was “playing politics” with the Fed by supporting the stock market to embellish President Obama’s last months in office… and help Democratic nominee Hillary… Read more »
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/db
14 billion fine imposed
Share price to a whisker of an all time low
https://www.milesfranklin.com/emergency-podcast/
“The rubes are revolting, and they are revolting because they can see the system is rigged. These people are fed up, and they have had enough, and I think this is where Trump is coming from. . . . I do think we are at an inflection point where someone is finally challenging the Wall Street/Washington elites. Trump is kind of a wild man in some ways, but he hasn’t spent the last 30 years in Washington drinking the Kool-Aid.” David Stockman
http://usawatchdog.com/stock-bond-bubbles-much-worse-than-1929-david-stockman/
Of course, of the USA electorate who have woken up, they would much prefer to have the highly talented & courageous [ physically & MORALLY ] & just Vladimir Putin to be the President of U.S.A.. Putin outwitted “The Dreadful Few” who now control Ukraine by allowing Crimea to “secede” to Russia. But, he did say that as soon as the majority of the population of Crimea wish to re-join with Ukraine — I think Crimea given to Ukraine only about 50 years ago [ U.S.S.R. President Khrushchev ? ] — he will accede to their wishes in that regard… Read more »
http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/war-peace-silver-plentiful-and-other-misconceptions-15944 “”The urgency for owning a financial put against the stupidity of central planners and politicians grows by the minute. We continue to witness a multifaceted array of failure heaped upon failure while repeating history on a dramatic scale. One of the great new wonders of the modern world is the credibility given to high profile economists. Obviously, they have no skin in the game, as their predictive misses have the curious effect of giving them even more credibility. The fact is that they have been caught wrong-footed with their constant predictions of an “imminent” economic surge justified by the… Read more »
http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/war-peace-silver-plentiful-and-other-misconceptions-15944 “The experts and the establishment hate to be seen to be wrong and will often follow their pre-conceived path regardless with no thought for the general public and the investment community if it affects them adversely in the process.” “Recall that according to Krugman the Fed has failed to stimulate the economy because it simply wasn’t enough. Apparently, having the Fed hold 35% of all 10 year equivalents, injecting nearly $3 trillion in reserves into the stock market, and creating a credit bubble that makes the 2007 debt bubble pale by comparison was not enough. One needs more! And… Read more »
What Sayeth You Now, Denialists? James McShirley It’s been 18 years since GATA first began alleging the gold market was manipulated. With the support of mountains of publicly available documents, irrefutable trading evidence, and even outright admissions from the Fed, BIS, and other sundry bankers the case for gold suppression was made. The result: deafening silence from the MSM. Nary a peep, nary a question, not even the slightest interest. In the beginning there were plenty of denialists out there claiming gold was instead a pristine Pollyanna market. They said no way could any “invisible force” control the gold market… Read more »
Interesting brief article giving the current state of play from Rothschild’s hand ;
.
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=139575
.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/42547/the-crisis-is-escalating
”Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are presently discussing merger talks. The fact that these meetings are occurring, is a signal that Germany’s banking troubles are indeed accelerating.”
”Interestingly, rates are not just low within the context of American history but they also happen to be at their lowest levels ever in over 5,000 years of civilization.”
”Whenever countries followed a strict gold standard and used it as their currency, those economies were very stable. But, governments have always surpassed their means, with their costly spending, and have to leave their gold standard so as to fund their inefficiencies.”
Well,well…..it appears the ‘official’ President of the Republic of Ireland is fully onboard with Andy Mooney, the ‘real’ President of the Global 5th Province. He also appears to understand the profound shock that 50’s Irish refugees from the chaos of The Emergency had when they arrived in Birmingham to find a tribe that not only had told Hitler to fuck off but did the same to ‘hero’ Winston Churchill as they demanded their Cultural Algorithm be upcycled to lead the world to a new vision despite the threats of a bunch of banker idiots who said the UK was ‘bankrupt’… Read more »
Ireland lost it’s chance to shape the destiny of the EU when it agreed to a second vote over the Lisbon Treaty. It is now a powerless hostage. As a Net Recipient of EU funds over decades and a flagrant tax-whore it has ZERO credibility or power to threaten the EU with ‘leaving’. Unless, of course, the Irish people decide to risk their temporary ‘income’ surge to restore the long-term prospects of genuine trans-generational ‘wealth’, like their neighbouring British islanders have done. How likely is it that the Irish would take that risk? Vanishingly remote. This is 2016, not 1916… Read more »
I admire David’s effort to make sense out of the nonsense. To me it all started with John McCain when he was looking for a VP and found this in Sarah Palin. He discovered then that with pure nonsense that came out of her mouth generated a lot of following among the American people. Something that John McCain himself wasn’t able to do. Donald Trump understands the power of nonsense very well and brought the art of nonsense to the next level. Trump’s also used his high levels of narcissism and self-centeredness to generate even more followers. People growing up… Read more »
Can you as an individual have any effect on policy or politics in general. Read on.
https://www.freedomforceinternational.org/
https://www.freedomforceinternational.org/join-with-us/
Bloc chain technology promoted for national central bank fiat currencies.
https://ellenbrown.com/2016/09/16/central-bank-digital-currencies-a-revolution-in-banking/
“”Blockchain won’t just kill banks, brokers and credit card companies. It will change every transactional process you know. Simply put, blockchain eliminates the need for clearinghouse entities of any kind. And that means a revolution is coming, a fundamental sea change in the way we do business””
http://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/victoria-s-tent-city-residents-stand-ground-on-eviction-day-1.2793384
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/tent-cities-full-of-homeless-people-are-booming-in-cities-all-over-america-as-poverty-spikes
For many , many people there has been no recovery the last 8 years.In Victoria you can’t walk anywhere without a beggars hat in sight. 120 plus people were camped on the Law Courts lawns last winter.
.
Soros-funded, extremist pro-abortion group horrified by Trump pro-life coalition leader
.
.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/pulse/extremist-soros-funded-pro-abortion-group-horrified-marjorie-dannenfelser-h
.
.
September 16, 2016 (LifeSiteNews) –
The rabidly pro-abortion, George Soros-funded group, People for the American Way (PDAW), has expressed horror that pro-life political action leader Marjorie Dannenfelser has agreed to head a pro-life coalition for Donald Trump.
https://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2016/09/17/billionaire-donald-trump-says-markets-false-will-collapse-january-1st.html
Will the markets crash before the New year time line or before? It all depends if the central bankers can hold them up much longer or not. They are already starting to quiver. Volatility is rising..
If they go before Nov we may not have an election take place.
Will Hillary be resilient enough to last the campaign?
It matters not who wins as the markets are going down regardless.
As the screw turns the speculation increases.
@FOLKS
PAY ATTENTION! => THINGS ARE CHANGING FAST
.
.
A DEUTSCHE BANK FINE!
-> WHY NOW?
=> THE TIMING IS IMPORTANT
A CHANGE OF PLAN?
AN ICEBERG DELIBERATELY SHOT AT THE TITANIC?
WILL OUR LIFEBOAT ARRIVE IN TIME?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1EM8s0gxyI
WHERES WALDO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8l08VwVgxc