The other day, while travelling by train to an interesting conference organised by Network Ireland in Westport, I was struck by just how lush our country is. Field after field of well irrigated, arable land suggested that we are probably not touching close to our agricultural potential and that is despite the fact that agriculture is still our biggest indigenous industry.
Having spent much of this year in the dry arid desert of Western Australia and the intensively cultivated rural hinterland of China, where land and food supply are crucial to keeping the economic miracle fed, it seemed to me that agriculture will play a significant part in any recovery.
Think about it. The world’s population will increase to nine billion by 2050 from 6.8 billion today. Someone has to feed these people. Over the past few years the yields in agriculture have remained stable. Having exploded throughout the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s with the green revolution, and its intensive use of oil-based fertiliser, yields are now growing at only 1pc a year.
As we saw two years ago, when the price of oil rises, because we use so much oil-based fertiliser, the price of food rises too and in many cases very rapidly. This led to food riots in over a dozen countries before the financial crisis diverted our attention. But the link between food and oil prices hasn’t gone away.
For a few months, as the world faced a global meltdown, the price of oil collapsed simply because there was no demand and, technically, there was another issue because some of the hedge funds that had driven the prices through the roof had to sell, and sell quickly. But oil prices didn’t stay low for long. They are creeping back upwards now and the price of crude is $74 a barrel — nine times what it was a decade ago.
As the world economy recovers, this will once again become a dominant issue. This also means that, from a cost basis, the price of food, even without billions of new mouths to feed, will rise.
Now, superimpose the population forecast of the UN on this cost structure and we can see that the world is facing a new food crisis.
In fact, odd as it may sound to a generation used to pictures of starvation in Africa, Africa could feed the world in the next 50 years. If you doubt this, think of Ireland. In one generation we went from famine to plenty in this country. Clearly there were other factors at play, but increases in yields as well as depopulation played a role.
Around the world, there are a few huge growth areas, where investment could dramatically raise yields. The former breadbasket of Europe, Ukraine, has huge potential. The former Soviet Republic has 30pc of the world supply of chernozem soil, rated the most productive in the world. However, corruption and under-investment have caused chaos in Ukrainian agriculture in the past decade.
So what does this mean for Ireland? Well, it means the biggest industrial opportunity for decades for large Irish agricultural firms. We have the know-how, the technology and the connections with the rest of the world to create a giant agricultural multinational, which invests in land in places like Ukraine and Africa and helps the people of these countries.
Think about Africa, someone is going to invest there and reap huge financial as well as moral rewards, why not us? This is a chance to get on the right side of a huge opportunity which we now are certain will emerge and Enterprise Ireland could be well served focusing on agricultural companies as any others. Interestingly, the number of companies involved in agriculture and food featured in the Ernst and Young Entrepreneur of the Year this year has more than doubled.
In terms of what we are doing at home, although there is huge merit in focusing on small artisan farming as represented by groups like ‘Good Food Ireland’, the facts about the decline in farming can’t be overlooked. There are currently 138,200 family farms in the country, average size 32.3 hectares. But by 2015, it is predicted that there will only be 40,000 full-time farmers in the country — compared with 230,000 full-time farmers in the 1970s. And only 13pc of Irish farmers are under 35.
Future market needs will be for fewer, larger, more intensive farms. In 2008, agriculture accounted for 10pc of Ireland’s exports and 8.5pc of employment, so it is still a huge, if declining industry.
Recently the Green Party has suggested making Ireland GM free. While there are many who might see this as a positive move, one of the disadvantages of this is that we cut ourselves off from technological innovation, which might cause yields to rise.
The most significant point, as our farmers take to the roads again, is that they should be listened to. Far too much economic debate in this country has been focused on the next big thing. With the world’s population doubling, farming is part of “the smart economy”.
Ireland could be a player in this boom on an international level as our existing companies go looking for opportunity in Africa and beyond and we could do more to make our farmers here feel that there is a future in the game.
Once a farmer stops farming it is a very difficult thing to rediscover; skills are lost as are contacts and what many call, the “feel for the land”.
Just as the world is about to enter an agricultural boom, it would be a shame if we presided over the gradual strangulation of our agriculture. Then again, given the lack of foresight in this country, it would be typical of us to fail to see the opportunity and end up having no agricultural capacity, just when the rest of the world is crying out for it.
Good Article David You’ve managed to highlight what is going to be a key issue over the next few years. Now ask yourself the following question? “How come farming is in crisis in many parts of the EU with large areas of arable land left vacant and unproductive?” I’ll try an answer and it goes something like this. When people see something that doesn’t make sense (such as a country like Ireland with some of the most fertile land in the world letting a lot of it lie idle or close to idle) they cry “this is a mistake, why… Read more »
Both David and mediator are correct in the short-term, however in the long term oil will run out and no continent or large agribusiness will be able to distribute food and feed the world. Therefore the long-term survival of nations (plus long term business opportunities) are in feeding ourselves locally, especially as an isolated island nation with little fuel resources. Feeding ourselves of course is not good economics at this time as it is cheaper to import food. To go down the self-sufficiency road now would not be viewed as a smart investment but as ratings of a crazy man… Read more »
EU policy is to make the island of Ireland more or less a National Reserve for indigenous tribes only suitable for Safaries by Continentals and all under the aegis of Tourism .
And our seas likewise using their offshore technology to exploit our reserves.
The laws of Ireland will be surpassed by the Laws of Napoleon .
All this happened before .Originally we had our native Brehon Laws that originated from Egypt only to be surpassed by The Common Laws – from England ( that included a plantation in Ireland too as many of us only arrived then ) this will now be followed by the Laws of Napoleon ( and another plantation as we are already witnessing names ending with …..ski…..ov…..ova ….orz….cin….etc ) . What this means is Control of National Resources lies in the Laws of Ireland ( not Irish Laws) and when these change so does the Control move to a foreign land.Our RIGHTS… Read more »
Hi David, Agriculture in Ireland is an interesting sector to analyse and oft-overlooked as it is seen as declining and backward and our history rather than our future. Its a diffcult sector to export (products and services). Lets look at the general trends. Agriculture productivity has been steadily rising per hectare for all types of farming practices and with increased mechanisation and production. This simply means that the amount of land needed to provide an ’employee’ (farmer) with income is increasing all the time. That means the number of farmer workers are reduced. However, food processing has become more elaborate… Read more »
The late Ray Crotty wrote eloquently about the problems facing Irish agriculture.The EC destroyed most of Irish farming-look @ the amount of food imported from Holland,UK ETC.We lack economies of scale and are too expensive relative to New Zealand, Argentina etc.Food processing has never really taken off.
Food supply for the worlds growing population is going to be one of the most important matter for governments in the future. World trade and supply of food can bring benefits to ourselves such as year round supply of any food that you desire at an affordable cost. Yet for poorer countries, such as many african nations, exportation of their food can leave their populations unable to afford it. Supply and demand. Irish farming is in a crisis with nearly all farm comodities being produced at below cost, while supermarkets earn record profits. This needs to be looked at seriously… Read more »
If you want to produce agricultural goods you must in the same breath sell them too.This is the mistake the Irish Farmers made in the early 70’s they privatised their marketing of their products thus the coops remained production units only .In addition Coras Trachtala ( export bord) were negligent with registering the trade mark of the Shamrock in Germany and a German company took advantage of that and now its theirs .Now you cannot sell Irish Food in Germany using a Shamrock anymore. Bord Bainne ( Irish Milk Bord ) are a sloppy organisation and self centered with only… Read more »
correction- ‘ they privatised the marketing of their products by selling on to their coop shares to the control of third party shreholders who were not farmers or producers ( usually were engineers and accountants) .Thus the farmers were left with selling a commodity item namely milk and live cattle and with a producer margin profit only and denying themselves a mark up on their value added product that they sold in the first place’Thus reason why Kerrygold is a world leader for private investors only and not farmers .
Since the Global Irish Economic Forum has been discussed extensively on this blog, it is timely to consider its recommendations. These are now published at : http://www.globalirishforum.ie/Documents/141114_Global_Irish_Economic_Forum_Report.pdf. To start the ball rolling, I am rather concerned that in para 7 they lump together something that is highly desirable, like intellectual property protection, with the highly controversial suggestion that Ireland could be a test bed for clinical trials. ie a convenient source of human guinea pigs. In other countries it is usually those who are at their financial wits end who submit to these experiments. Just Google ‘clinical trial death’ and… Read more »
Farming is a commodity and farmers must restart again what their forefathers did at the time of The Free State and begin the formation of COOPS with the responsibility and CONTROL primarily in the hands of the producers .I have no respect for any Irish Farmer because of their irresponsiblity in making a short term share gains when they relinquished full control of what their forefathers worked so hard for to make ,only to lose it again foolhardily. They threw out the baby with the bath water believing their laurels were in EU Grants forever.What is the point of producing… Read more »
I have always believed that farming was a prime example of a knowledge economy undertaking. I have come across masters of process engineering in large hi tech manufacturing facilities that came from a farming background and who had an inate sense of process organisation in a large operation. The problem we have in Ireland is one of ignorance and an inability to look beyond the glamour and glitz of disneyland Sci Fi nonsense. Farming in Ireland is seen as a dirty and dangerous profession with little support with only tradition acting as its mainstay. It is in fact quite the… Read more »
David. In my viewpoint, farming is about food first, profits second. Unfortunately not enough people farm for food first. Also, FRANKEINSTEIN FOODS will poison and kill. Thirdly, farming by it’s very nature is all about abundance. Look at the amount of apples one can pick off one apple tree. Fourthly, before a society considers producing more food off the land, better first too stop the waste of food before producing more quantities. Food is wasted on a colossal scale and i suspect excessive food wastage in a community is bad news on the karma of a society overall. Food wastage… Read more »
wills : your prose above is a far cry from the usual bombardment you constantly feed us. No offense intended.Its hard to believe its the same writer.
Short Departure
Moon Wobble – this is aspected on Monday 19th so become very tuned to everything around you.
I think it is – BLACK MONDAY
Nothing at all to do with the Corn Laws and the access of Canadian wheat to the GB market.
Folks, while I appreciate the main idea in DMcW’s article, essentially that Agriculture is a hugely under-utilised resource in Ireland, there are myriad problems that have been super-imposed on the sector; or have inter-posed themselves between true agriculture and its market. “Co-op”, though a fine idea at inception, has become a misnomer: the co-operatives have been caught engaging in price-fixing (on milk and chicken, for example) and nothing has been done about it; there was even a PrimeTime special on it by the state broadcaster. A Business-profiteering mentality has taken over the original ideals of the co-op. The middle-men between… Read more »
@ Lorcan and others 1.For the future of Irish Farming read John Seymour, he predicted where Irish (and other) farmers were going back in the 1970’s. 2. GM food is about two things – profit and control. See my link at the beginning for evidence. Once farmers go down the GM route they lose the ability to make their own seed and become a hostage to the likes of Monsanto. 3. Evil wears a pretty face. The advocates of GM are of course going to pretend its about world hunger etc… Who could argue against that. But its not what… Read more »
I hold me auld clinic every Tuesday Night in the snug of the pub, ever since I won my seat on the County Council nearly 40 years ago.(still hold it by the way).Afterwards we usually play cards ,a game of 25,usually a 9 if we have enough. Now the talk always gets around to Farming as you would expect here in South Kerry. Packey Griffen came out with the best one I ever heard a few weeks ago…”there’s no seasons left in Ireland “ he said. My first thought was “I’ll have to drive him home tonight” but not so,… Read more »
GM = IP & Seasons are made irrelevant. Beautiful summations on the sleight of hand and state of disconnect our communities have with their local context. No wonder farmers are clobbered and sooner or later this fate will befall us all as we cede control to profit takers who are unanswerable to anyone. Champions of the so called “ultimately benevolent profit motive” who are on this board need to wake up.
The only reason Monsanto was into GM was to make a vendor locked weedkiller. The lock in was the self terminating seed. How more frankenstein do you want it?
The only reason for hunger is politics. NOT the lack of science and tech. The oppressed starve, while the soldiers become obese. Sounds very histrionic? look the puddingy pilots climb out ofbtheir F18s in Afganistan.
Ray Crotty articulated the issues we have had here. They are still 100% true
Tim – nobody has mentioned – MUCK & MANURE : these are the terrible twins in the X-Factor of Farm Production .They are not a waste and are recycleable .We need more MUCK & MANURE mentality to save our lands.
Farming is tough work. It involves physical, moral and mental strenghth. Just like there is no such thing as a standard edition in any other profession, farmers vary in terms of ability. There are honest farmers, productive farmers, deceitful farmers, lazy farmers and crooks. Irish society is not organized to reward people who work hard, who strive and endure. Irish society is structured to reward people who work the system. Sophistication in Ireland is not about knowing how many kilograms of fertilizer will optimize wheat output, or which potatoe variety will thrive on a wet summer. Sophistication in Ireland is… Read more »
Tim your quotation is the best in a long time ” Yes, David, Ireland is a very fertile land; but what are the “fertile minds” in Ireland doing with it?” The fertile minds of Ireland have been diverted by every possible means from reforming the system. But hey, let’s keep up this discussion so as to alert them to what is going on in this country. The fertile minds in Ireland might want to focus on dismantling all the market rigging that is going on, undermining the nepotism by taking our business eslewhere, and not propping up any more of… Read more »
Hi All, This discussion is interesting. It doesnt take much to distill the arguments down into economic and societal systems, and their fairness or lack thereof. You see, capitalism, pure capitalism is completely unfair and leads to those that have more resources gaining more etc. Yes, there is luck. Yes, there is reward for effort, but it is not fair. It even leads to death for some. Our Human failings of greed, etc, play in the system. We try to combat this by regulations, etc, governments and government bodies and systems backed by armies and authorities, etc. But nowhere are… Read more »
Compare and contrast the wealth generated by the fishing industries of Iceland and Ireland.Most of our processed fish products are imported.Agriculture has gone down similar path.Farms are too small and are kept alive by subsidy.The way forward is to completely privatise health and education and sell their output to wealthy foreigners.A flu jab in USA is one third the Irish price-shows how far we have to travel to get our cost base right.
Professor Michael Hudson is well worth checking out……….
see http://michael-hudson.com/
A couple of his articles:
Rescue for the Few, Debt Slavery for the Many
http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson10132008.html
The Language of Looting
http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson02232009.html
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Spanish banking crises, then and now
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/15/77956/spanish-banking-crises-then-and-now/
Wobble Wobble Wobble
Black Monday 19th Oct 2009
The Last for a while tune in
I don’t know David if farming in Ireland can ever reach its full potential – the price of agricultural land is way out of line with its productive potential – it’s considered to be a trophy rather than a resource. Irish farmers want it handed to them on a plate – they don’t want the responsibility of employing people to add value or for marketing and that’s why it’s a none runner. They prefer to depend on processors who play the market for their own ends and until that changes, it doesn’t have real sense of direction.
New Book –
http://www.irelandin2050.com
by dr. kinsella
Folks, Miriam did it again: “Nama is complicated for most people”…..
We are too thick to hear facts and figures.
get the C and AG to look at it “After” NAMA is set up?
Richard Bruton did NOT say, “Too Late, then.”
Why not?
I repeat, farming is NOT a business. To view farming as first and foremost as a business is the big MISTAKE society is making and inviting hell on earth to make a visit.
Farming is a test of a societies real values and what it really thinks of itself and if an alien landed on earth and wanted to find out what the indigenous culture is really up too, have a look at the farming, top to bottom.
wills, you are correct and right.
We must address these fundamentals.
One might be forgiven, these days, for assuming that our lives are all about money, equity, profit.
They are not.
Our lives are about relationships; love, connections, friendships.
“The Market” is still what it has always been: a “side-issue”; a “gamble”; and the gamblers should be allowed to accept their losses.
David mentions China and Africa. The fact is the Chinese and the Gulf States are engaged in a massive land grab of African soil fertility and water in a desparate attempt to feed their own populations. They have trillions of hard currency to wave in the face of corrupt African ‘leaders’. I can’t see how Ireland could muscle in other than as part of a concerted EU strategy. Given the super-abundance of Ukraine’s soil, it’s hard to see how Africa would interest the EU, given they have so many vested interests in the CAP to look after. The world’s popultation… Read more »
Another guy on Vb says, “I don’t want to get too technical on our viewers, but the banks are very bust”.
Why are all the people on our TVs and Radios saying that we cannot understand the facts of the problem?
I, REALLY, am sick of this.
Robbie Kelleher, of “Davy Stock-Brokers”, with his head held high, says, “apart from the figures, and all that kinda stuff….”
?????
Apart from the figures?
Oh!
Stockbroker-man, Robbie Kelleher, of “Davy Stock-Brokers”, reckons we/yaxpayer “MUST” support NAMA?
Ah, sure, okay so…..
Ooops, should read “Taxpayer”.
Anybody who thinks banker bailouts, which is what the NAMA FAT STINKING LIE is, will result in a return to prudent banking, maybe a look at this link will shed some light. Cos, AIB and BOI and ANIB executives will be trundling along up the same garden path come the installing of NAMA.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6336039/Goldman-Sachs-bankers-set-for-bumper-bonuses-as-profits-more-than-triple.html
NAMA is EXPLOSIVE
Weird Echoes of NAMA – Presently there are visible earthly signs that the government is already burst in the process of collecting current monies that are fantasies in the real world.I have noticed the following : Revenue do not frequently resort to writing signed letters to tax payers / agents as once was done ; and More telephone calls are the norm that can often erode the rights of taxpayers when unexpectedly received ; and Revenue do not encourage replies in writing unless payment is included; and Revenue are telephoning Directors of small now defunct companies since ceased trading and… Read more »
NAMA is the vested interests crony power elites taking care of business. Taking care of business within their own orbit. Continuing to increase their income growth. Revenue and public finances and the public sector bill and social welfare bill is business to be taken care of within the taxpayers orbit. These are issues which bear no reality outside of the general taxpayer s orbit. The technocrats running the affairs of the state, run the affairs with one eye on the feudal lords orbit and one eye on the sharecropper taxpayers orbit. So, the private banking establishment and their technocrats are… Read more »
It drives me up the wall to see these farmers, with their inherited farms, protesting in their €100k tractors while so many people have no jobs and live in social housing. I think it is completely unfair that we are expected to pay farmers above the odds for their produce (grants). The economist quoted three reason for that I think was 100 million people were facing strarvation last 2008. 1. Oil 2. Ethanol 3. Agricultural subsidies. People are actually dying because of the european farm system of subsidies. I would be happy to export our farmers out of Ireland as… Read more »
Well Tully :as yere wahar wood say tis nuttin gets done if the mashanery dont workk – and ye have no monaye for the church collections then on sunday .If she were upp 4 de daye in dublin then she wud saye the same thing too – that the government will get nothing more if they cannot get what they can should get now. But she always saze that the country was grannnnde when yere fella from moin mhean – moyvane was the boss of the central bank …but he is gone now …is’nt he …is in’t he ….put more… Read more »
MK1
..problem seems to me to be that people confuse the that fact that markets behave according too their own inner logic, markets don’t hue toward the underlying economic assumptions that one would think would apply to markets, so, this reality results in free market dynamics getting a bad rap. The free market will perform its magic if humans worked rationally.
JUST because humans act irrationally does not mean the free market system / pure capitalism is unfair.
Here’s the reality of the banker bailout NAMA. The NAMA pot of gold for the bankers will be robbed by the banksters.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/6336039/Goldman-Sachs-bankers-set-for-bumper-bonuses-as-profits-more-than-triple.html
Okay lads, there’s a time for the auld craic and a time to become serious. I think maybe its time to leave the back- biting aside and look at the hard questions. I think John Allen ‘Gets It’ when he says: “Sheriff’s have had some threatening suicidal cases of taxpayers who cannot pay and where the banks have destroyed their dreams and many farmers are included in this”. This is the ultimate criticism of those who created the situation we find ourselves in. And its only the beginning of a suicide bubble inflated by pressure from banks and debt collectors.… Read more »